BuffaloHokie13

No Dan Morgan or Luke Kuechley?

I miss having Molson on draft, if that counts.

I broke it down pre & post injury. Allen's pre-injury rating is 49.2 (replacement level) and his post-injury rating is 76.8 (in line with Mayfield, Cousins, Dalton, and Mullens).

I did! I also created the formula that's calculating the QB Rating score in the final column. It's not too bad, I just add their stats in each week as they play, but most of the fields are equations. My goal was to create a rating that more closely matched 'the eye test' rankings.

Much like Rosenthal's list, mine is based on their play this year alone.

Here are my rankings heading into the weekend. Top 32 are the starters from last week, others below are the QBs with at least 100 attempts this year.

This is actually one of the reasons I think McD is interested. He has the size and skillset to play anywhere on the line and McD loves that kind of versatility. He's my 26th overall player at the moment and the 7th ranked Edge player. If he fell to our pick in the 2nd it'd be good value, imo, but he's not a guy I'm considering in the top 10-12

Nah, it was 13/26 for 159 yards and 1 TD in a start against Baltimore.

Aren't the Chiefs fighting for a first round bye with the Pats*? Or is that wrapped up now that the Pats* lost 2 in a row?

I wanted us to give him a shot after we got rid of KB. Or, more accurately, I wanted us to cut KB so we could sign him!

We need our version of Moss (who I doubt will be as good, certainly can't expect that) to help Allen out. Ideally we hit on someone big in the draft!

Baker Mayfield - Russ Wilson lite It's very difficult to say he'll be an equal to (or surpass) Russ Wilson based on the current sample size, but even a lite version is pretty good news for Cleveland in my opinion. Sam Darnold - Matt Stafford He'll have inflated stats, probably have poorly timed turnovers, and ultimately will not win anything of significance. Josh Allen - Daunte Culpepper/Steve McNair Dual threat on a large frame. Josh Rosen - Matt Ryan Quick, efficient decisions. Polished mechanics. Lamar Jackson - Mike Vick lite Exciting to watch, but how long will he be effective?

14-0 with home field locked up.

Sometimes all the pieces fall into place. This assumes we get help on the OL in FA, which is a distinct possibility. 9: R1P9 - EDGE RASHAN GARY, MICHIGAN 41: R2P9 - WR MARQUISE BROWN, OKLAHOMA 72: R3P8 - TE ALBERT OKWUEGBUNAM, MISSOURI 111: R4P9 - RB DEVIN SINGLETARY, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 133: R4P31 - C/G ROSS PIERSCHBACHER, ALABAMA 148: R5P9 - WR JUWAN JOHNSON, PENN STATE 163: R5P24 - CB KEN WEBSTER, MISSISSIPPI 184: R6P9 - S DELVON RANDALL, TEMPLE 225: R7P9 - RB JALIN MOORE, APPALACHIAN STATE 228: R7P12 - DL RAEQUAN WILLIAMS, MICHIGAN STATE

If I look at the individual week (ignoring tonight's participants, of course) I've got Josh Allen at 80.0 (7th best) and Matt Stafford at 70.7 (11th best). That mostly has to due with both of them having something in the TD column (11 QBs didn't) and neither of them having something in the Turnover column (17 QBs did). Maybe I'm wasting my time by having my own formula, but I enjoy the time I spend doing it and analyzing the results.

I think you ignored the context of those trades, though. Nelson, Thomas, and Barr were all selected by teams that traded down, not up. Corey Davis was selected with a pick from a trade down as well, as Tennessee got that pick in return for trading down from 1 to 15 the previous year.

Yes, he's tied with Alex Collins for most carries on the team

That's kind of my point though, no? That rookie QB stats don't seem to relate to future success. I'm not saying that RG3 is better than Russ Wilson or Baker Mayfield is better than Andrew Luck. I'm saying that their rookie seasons were better. How that translates to future success is a different monster entirely. As far as it being a fair comparison I haven't factored in supporting cast for any of them, though how much their teams put on their shoulders is factored into my rating. People regularly make the argument that all we need is a QB and our problems are solved, especially during draft time, but the roster certainly plays a part. This was just something I thought might be interesting, especially as people try to place how well this year's rookies are faring.

So I have gone back as far as 2011, and entered all QB's rookie season stats that had at least 200 pass attempts. I haven't drawn any sweeping conclusions, but I do think it provides decent context for rookie stats and how they relate (or don't) to future success. What do you guys think? See anything I'm missing? I'll put out another update in 2 weeks when this year's class has wrapped up their season.

Not a rookie though.

It seems to me that BPA may well be DL, OL, and WR in rounds 1, 2, and 3 respectively, while also mostly addressing OL in the FA class with that 90 Mil you mentioned. Something like Rashan Gary, David Edwards, and Kelvin Harmon would be phenomenal in my book.

I pretty much agree there, though I also believe Zay may be dangled as trade bait (along with a pick) for a better #1 than DT. I'm intrigued by Kelvin Harmon and Hakeem Butler, among others in the day 2 draft class.

We talkin' Marinara or Capicola?

Fletcher Cox is aboslutely worth it. I also like Leonard Floyd, though he's had a slower start than I expected. Too early to consider the most recent 2, so for me it's 50/50 as far as results.

in 2018 the Saints gave up pick 27, pick 147, and a 2019 first to move to pick 14 and take Marcus Davenport. in 2017 the Falcons gave up pick 31, pick 95, and pick 249 to move to pick 26 for Takkarist McKinley in 2016 the Bears gave up pick 11 and pick 106 to move to pick 9 for Leonard Floyd in 2015 the Broncos gave up pick 28, pick 143, a 2016 5th, and a Guard to move to pick 23 for Shane Ray in 2013 the Dolphins gave up pick 12 and pick 42 to move to pick 3 for Dion Jordan in 2012 the Eagles gave up pick 15, pick 114, and pick 172 to move to pick 12 for Fletcher Cox There's been about 1 trade up a year for a pass rusher, but usually not in the top 10.