BuffaloHokie13

So like Rex?

Most of that is garbage time since they're always playing from behind

Yeah, he must have hated having Decker, Marshall, and Forte.

Ick. HC: Jauron OC: Gailey DC: Williams ST: Lynn

I didn't really get into the minutia of any stats beyond points with the thought that the culmination of all of those stats caused the resulting scores. Also, while sacks are a nice stat to have, I think QB Pressures is probably a more important one.

Instead of paying their replacements they just gave both of their salaries to Joe

to expand on it: 4 years on rookie deal: 43-21; 2 Division Champs; 2 Wildcards; 1 Super Bowl ring 4 years since: 31-33; 1 Wildcard

The Flacco contract took the Ravens from Super Bowl Champs to 31-33 over a 4 year span.

This analysis is comparing all teams under the same circumstances. No idea how long it would take to contextualize every game to eliminate garbage time points, but I think it's a pretty safe assumption to say every team has them. As far as turnovers, the Bills defense created 43 turnovers over the last 2 years, good for T-19th in that span. Again, looking at this broadly, many teams forced more turnovers than us and many committed more than us. For my purposes those things have already been factored into the scores. The Miami heat for that game on October 23rd was 82 at kickoff with ~45% humidity. We also didn't go 3 and out 7 times in a row. We went 3 and out twice, had a 1 play TD pass, went 3 and out 3 times, and then had a 13 play TD drive. As for your final point, the Bengals and Pats* games were the only 2 games that qualified as Defensive Carries in 2016 and the Ravens game was the only game in 2016 that qualified as an Offensive Letdown. So you identified exactly the same games the analysis did

This is the stuff that bugs me, maybe more than it should. He was 'incapable' except when he wasn't. How about just saying he rarely did it? Also, for the record, he also had a GWD against the Jags this year, and the 2nd Miami game really should have been a game winning drive. Yeah I know, shoulda, coulda, woulda.

Atlanta's offense scored 540 points, 71 more points than any other team in the league last year. That's 4.4 points per game more than everyone. They had the 2nd most passing TDs and the 3rd most rushing TDs. It's an anomaly. The year before that (with the same QB and same OC) they scored 339 points, good for T-21 in the league. In 2015 they passed for 21 TDs, good for T-23 (2 fewer than Buffalo's run first offense) and ran for 13 (T-12).

I don't even know that I'm looking for a significant improvement in their rankings so much as consistent performances. Our Defense's performance swing between wins and losses is 16 points, which is the 2nd highest. Ideally our defense looks more like the Cowboys in my study. Their swing between wins and losses is only 5.8, and their team ranked 17 in yards & 16 in points in 2015 and 14 in yards an 5th in points in 2016. Realistically we will probably look more like the Titans though. Their swing is 6.6 and their overall season performances have been very similar to ours over the past 2 years.

Good question! It started as a defense focused study, and the average points allowed for the 16th & 17th ranked teams in '15 and '16 was 23.58. I figured round up and hold the O to the same standard despite the 16th and 17th ranked offenses being about a point lower than the defense each year. Agreed. 0-14 is awful, and 15-3 is really good. Exactly. And it is worth pointing out that our D only allowed 24+ points one more time over the 2 years than the top 12 who make up 75% of the playoff teams (2 more than the other AFC teams though).

It was a direct reply to someone else posting about our record when we score 24 or more points, and all the stats were directly related to that vein of thought. Surely you can comprehend that if you go back and read it instead of responding just to respond. Also, because it seemed like that particular topic was diverting from the original I started a separate thread to expand on those points that have nothing to do with Tyrod specifically.

I don't think they sucked, I think they sucked at times.

My post blamed no one for anything, and didn't mention Tyrod whatsoever. What exactly are you on about?

So I took a look at Wins and Losses by team over the past 2 years with a focus on whether teams scored and/or allowed 24+ points. Points of clarification: - I ignored all ties in this analysis, as it is about wins and losses specifically - Offensive Carries is the amount of times a team won despite their Defense allowing 24+ points - Offensive Letdowns is the amount of times a team lost despite their Defense allowing <24 points - Defensive Carries is the amount of times a team won despite their Offense scoring <24 points - Defensive Letdowns is the amount of times a team lost despite their Offense scoring 24+ points Here are the Bills' ranks in relevant categories: In Wins: Average Points Scored: 27.1 (T-22nd) Average Points Allowed: 14.5 (4th) In Losses: Average Points Scored: 21.9 (2nd) Average Points Allowed: 30.5 (28th) We scored 24+ Points 18 times (T-10th) and won 50% of those games (T-28th). When we failed to score 24+ we won 42.86% of the time (6th). We allowed 24+ Points 14 times (T-13th) and won 0% of those games (T-29th). When we held opponents to <24 points we won 83.33% of the time (T-7th). We had 0 Offensive Carries (T-29th) We had 3 Offensive Letdowns (T-6th) We had 6 Defensive Carries (T-8th) We had 9 Defensive Letdowns (32nd) The Bills related conclusion that I draw from this is that the Bills are who we thought they were, and we let them off the hook. The Offense is a consistent unit when it comes to scoring and it isn't going to win you games, but it also very rarely loses you games. The Defense was terribly inconsistent, and our results were generally tied much more closely to their successes and failures. As I stated in another thread: The offense has yet to carry a game where the defense has struggled, and the defense has let down our offense more than any other team in the league. Honestly, as sad as that sentence is, it sounds just about right. I sorted the data by the teams that allowed 24+ points the least. The top 12 teams in this stat all made the playoffs at least once in the past 2 years, and those 12 teams account for 18 of the 24 playoff appearances over the past 2 years. Every team that made the playoffs in both 2015 and 2016 are in those top 12 teams. The only team in the bottom 12 of this stat to make the playoffs was Miami. As an aside, I hope this remains a discussion about team stats instead of devolving into opinions on individual performances. Cheers everyone, and GO BILLS!

I don't think it was terrible coaching. I do think it was a reflection of the team philosophy. The offense was a run first, ground & pound, ball control offense with the potential for big plays sprinkled in. This offensive philosophy can certainly be successful when you have a D that consistently performs well paired with it. Our offense was never the reason we won, and it was rarely the reason we lost. An inconsistent defense was the controlling factor all year. When the D was on we won a lot (83.3% Win rate when opponents were held to 23 or fewer points). When the D was off we lost.

PM'd

I've got more analysis coming, as I've now finished the rest of the league, but I do think I've identified why there is such a rift with blaming O vs. blaming D. Part of my analysis was totaling how many times over the past 2 years that the following happened: Offense Carried: The team won even though the Defense allowed 24+ points Offensive Letdown: The team lost even though the Defense held the opponent to 23 or less Defense Carried: The team won even though the Offense scored 23 or fewer points Defensive Letdown: The team lost even though the Offense score 24+ points The Bills ranked as follows over the past 32 games: Offense Carried: 0 times - T-29th most (Tied with Bears, 49ers, Texans) Offensive Letdown: 3 times - T-6th fewest (Tied with Giants, Seahawks, Colts, Eagles, and Saints) Defense Carried: 6 times - T-8th most (Tied with Lions & Bears) Defensive Letdown: 9 times - 32nd (31st was Chargers with 7) So the offense has yet to carry a game where the defense has struggled, and the defense has let down our offense more than any other team in the league. Honestly, as sad as that sentence is, it sounds just about right.

Point #1 you are correct in the way you took it. Point 2, it indicates that the Bills D is the best of the bunch when we win. As far as my analysis, I'll get there in a bit. Potentially in a new topic. I've gone through this analysis and then some for every team in the league over the past 2 years and charted it all in a spreadsheet. Yes, I'm a math nerd.

Finished the AFC tonight, will work on NFC tomorrow. Over the past 2 years the Bills are 9-9 in games where we score 24+. The only AFC Teams with equal or worse win rates scoring 24+ are: Chargers (7-7) Jaguars (4-4) Browns (3-6) In that same time span the Bills also average more points per game in losses (21.9) than any other AFC team (2nd=19.6; 16th=14.2) and in losses, the Bills average 30.5 points allowed per game, good for 2nd most in the AFC (1st=30.7; 16th=23.5) EDIT: Ooh, and a potential correlation: 6 AFC teams have allowed 24+ points 12 times or less over the past 2 years. All 6 have made the playoffs at least once, and 4 of the 6 have made the playoffs both years!

I'm working on something I think you'll like that relates to this and using 24 as the 'golden number' on each side of the ball. I'll let you know when it's done.

Don't they all?

Because I like Tyrod, stats, and the Bills I ran some more numbers, this time with the Bills, the Saints, the Colts, the Ravens, and the Chargers. Average Points Scored and Allowed in Wins: Bills: 27.1 - 14.5 Saints: 34.9 - 26.6 Colts: 27.8 - 19.3 Ravens: 23.9 - 16.5 Chargers: 31.1 - 22.1 Average Points Scored and Allowed in Losses: Bills: 21.9 - 30.5 Saints: 21.6 - 30.9 Colts: 18.7 - 30.7 Ravens: 18.9 - 26.7 Chargers: 19.6 - 27.0 Offensive and Defensive Swing between Wins and Losses: Bills: O: 5.2 D: -16.0 (Consistent Offensive production, Jekyll & Hyde Defense) Saints: O: 13.2 D: -4.3 (Jekyll & Hyde Offense, Consistently Bad Defense) Colts: O: 9.1 D: -11.4 (Only 1 side of the ball shows up on any given week) Ravens: O: 5.0 D: -10.3 (Consistent, but low Offensive Production, Inconsistent, but solid Defense) Chargers: O: 11.5 D: -4.9 (Inconsistent Offensive Production, Consistently below average Defense) 24+ Allowed Win %; 23 or less Allowed Win %: Bills: 0.00%; 83.33% Saints: 28.57%; 72.73% Colts: 27.78%; 78.57% Ravens: 16.67%; 71.43% Chargers: 22.73%; 40.00% Sorry this turned into a book...