BuffaloHokie13

My Browns source laughed out loud when he read this. #NFLDraft #NervousTic

Next year's 1st is worth 420.

I liken it to a metalhead selling his first guitar. He posts the ad, takes some calls, shows it off to a couple prospective buyers. One of them offers $1000. He's not really sure he wants to sell it, but if he did $1000 would get the deal done.

He was a 5th round pick, not a 1st round pick.

We had to throw in an extra 2nd because they agreed to take Peterman...

nice

Rachel Bush then Kyle, Tre, & Shady.

I agree, but tweets like that make me hope it happens even more so he just looks like a giant buffoon.

It's certainly far from guaranteed to happen, and it definitely requires a partner. A funny thing happens though, once they (Bills FO) decide what they're willing to part with they can just work their way down the draft order if the Browns say no. There's a 3 team option with the Broncos, potentially, where Broncos get 12, 22, and a future pick, Giants get 5 & an extra 2nd, and Bills go to 2. If the Giants don't want to budge you talk to Cleveland about 4 for a lesser haul. I'm sure I come across as overbearing with some of the trade value stuff, but I've done an embarrassing amount of research and looked at it practically for the teams involved. I'm confident in the offer presented. I've also been confident in offers on houses and been told no, so you never know At the end of the day I just want people to be as educated as possible about the subject at hand!

The Rams paid 2 1sts (1 current, 1 future), 2 2nds (both current), and 2 3rds (1 current 1 future) to go from 15 to 1.

I'm incredibly against breaded wings, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't consider breading some wings with Flutie Flakes for this draft. Granted, I didn't consider it for very long, but it crossed my mind...

To the first point, I think several teams already don't think Barkley is worth a top pick. A few have Guice rated higher. There are also some teams that are looking at the pass rushers next year and wondering whether Chubb is worth the high pick. It all depends on their evaluations at the end of the day. For the QBs you've got Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, and Allen; then you have Brad Chubb, Quenton Nelson, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James, Denzel Ward, Tremaine Edmunds, Roquon Smith, Vita Vea, Connor Williwams, Mike McGlinchey. At least 2 of those guys would be there at 12. Or, having 4, 12, 22, 33, 35, 53, 64, 65, and an extra 2019 1st at their disposal, they could move up from 12 quite easily. Lots of flexibility. With the rumors about the Colts, the Browns could easily pick 4 & 6, or even 2 & 6 if they wanted and still come out ahead. To the second point, there is clearly an amount required for any team moving back to deem the risk worth it. In this case I just don't see it. If the Browns want Allen they can get him at 1, or they can cash in with a team that has picks and isn't likely interested in him, still get the same player, and pick up an additional 1st in 2018 and 2019. One thing is certain, and that's that the Browns need help on the OL. If I'm the Browns FO I'd rather have Josh Allen, Connor Williams, and Harold Landry/Darrius Guice and an extra 2019 1st than Josh Allen and Bradley Chubb/Saquon Barkley.

It is right though. When's the last time someone offered 2 1sts in the current year? It has a higher value than people want to believe. Jets got to 3 with a 1st, 2 2nds, and a future 2nd valued as a 3rd. That premium was 152%. 12, 22, 53, 65, and our 2019 1st is a 151% premium on the #1 pick. Similarly, if the Bills value future picks over current ones (I don't think the Browns do, I think they want more future picks) we could do 12, 22, 53, 56, and a 2019 2nd for a 150% value.

Updated my previous response if you're still curious.

I did a longer post on it a while back, let me dig that up. I went through the exercise of valuing all of the pick for pick trades with 3 different charts before deciding to use the one below exclusively moving forward because the rest didn't work at least half of the time... The only mistake you get a lot with this one is that people don't factor in premiums for the top 10, top 5, or top 3 ranges so they dismiss it. 49ers: #2 (2600) - 93.83 Bears: #3, #67, & #111 (2527) - 107.46 115% Top 3 Browns: #12 (1200) - 60.6 Texans: #25 & Future 1st (1140) - 61.16 101% Top 12 Bills: #10 (1300) - 64.58 Chiefs: #27, #91, & Future 1st (1236) - 66.35 103% Top 10 Browns: #8 & #176 (1421) - 72.05 Titans: #15, #76, Future 2nd (1450) - 75.5 105% Top 10 Bucs: #9 (1350) - 67.66 Bears: #11 & #106 (1332) - 68.05 101% Top 10 Titans: #1, #113, #177 (3088.6) - 105.84 Rams: #15, #43, #45, #76, Future 1, Future 3 (2670) - 136.04 129% Top 3 Browns: #2, Future 5th/Conditional Comp 4th (2621) - 94.98 Eagles: #8, #77, #100, Future 1, Future 2 (2159) - 113.51 120% Top 3 Rams: #2 (2600) - 93.83 Redskins: #6, #39, Future 1st, Future (2 years) 1st (2720) - 135.39 144% Top 3 So there's 8 Trades into the top 12 picks since 2011. All of them work value-wise with the base 100 chart above and there is a relative standard established on top 10 vs top 3. Only 2 of the 8 make sense using JJ values.

Might want to look into previous trades with the JJ numbers before using them. They aren't very good any more. Besides, I ran the numbers up thread and came to basically your offer, but giving 65 back to you instead of 56. Future picks are always devalued 1 round. Here's two trades into the top 2 for QBs from 2016: Browns give 2 & Future 4 (2634) Eagles give 8, 77, 100, Future 1, Future 2 (2315) Titans give 1, 113, & 177 (3088.6) Rams give 15, 43, 45, 76, Future 1, Future 3 (2670) That's why I use the base 100 chart now. It was derived from all the draft trades since 2011 and nearly all of them work out in a way that makes sense. Plus you get a feel for the normal premiums paid for specific ranges (top 3 vs top 5 vs top 10). Browns 2 & future 4 = 96.19 Eagles 8, 77, 100, future 1 & 2 = 118.46 Titans 1, 113, 177 = 105.84 Rams 15, 43, 45, 76, future 1 & 3 = 138.49 You can point to the Jets move with JJ numbers, but with the new chart they paid 152% of the cost of the #3 pick. The offer I put together above is 151% of the #1 pick, which is in line with the Jets move imo.

I actually think in a recent interview Beane even said that he'd never do a deal with someone who insisted on knowing prior to the deal. Maybe I'll dig for it later.

This really isn't something that comes up in the negotiations at all. Cleveland isn't going to tell us who their guy is, and we aren't going to tell them who our guy is. The reason we are paying a premium to move up is because of the risk they are taking.

Maybe he got the Josh's confused?

Right now the fanbase is excited to win a few games with Tyrod. Getting even a project QB with a very high ceiling (Allen) would be fine imo.

I don't even know if that's required. If we factor in the other rumor info about the rifts in Cleveland's front office then only Wolf has Darnold as QB1. Dorsey & McCloughan have Mayfield 1. Hue, Haley, Zampese, Saunders, and Berry all have Rosen as QB1. If that's the case, then maybe they take the picks I laid out for #1 and accept that Wolf is overruled. In that case you have 5 wanting Rosen and 2 (one being the actual GM) wanting Mayfield. So even if they failed to convince the Giants to drop back to 4 from 2 worst case scenario they get to choose between one of those 2 and Allen at pick 4 (and wind up with picks 4, 12, 22, 33, 35, 53, 64, 65, and our 2019 1st). I think domino #1 is the Browns dealing with us for 1. Then if we take Darnold on draft day the Browns call the Giants and ask if they want to move back to 4 and still get the guy they want so that the Browns have their choice of Mayfield & Rosen (or Allen, who knows).

Hopefully McD stays away from the offense altogether and it's Daboll & Culley talking to our new QB.

I've got 5 going in round 1, 2 going in round 2, and 2 going in round 3.

I'm not a fan of the Jimmy Johnson chart, as I generally feel it is antiquated and became obsolete with the rookie wage scale (seriously, check out the trades since 2011 using the JJ chart. They make no sense.), but I do understand that the truth generally lies in the middle. So I checked some scenarios with both the Rich Hill base 100 chart and the JJ chart. Ended up with a slightly modified version of my original proposal. I feel like the scenario is at least plausible, and each team can sell it as a win. - Bills get their QB and still have a pick in rounds 2 & 3 this year. - Browns still get the QB they want and come out ahead 1 1st round pick this year and next year. - Giants get they player that they were going to get at 2, but also pick up an additional 2nd & 3rd round pick. And before people go twisting who's giving what for what, I also put together the net result for the Browns since they were involved in both transactions. They come out ahead in both. So no, they aren't losing.

I speculated in the other thread that the teams would end up like this: After the madness: Bills: 1, 56, 96 - Total Value 123.97 Browns: 2, 12, 22, 33, 64, 69, Bills 2019 2nd - Total Value 265.81 Giants: 4, 34, 35, 53, 65, 66 - Total Value 190.87