Sammy Watkins' Rib

Boldin averaged less than 9ypc last year. And now our top WR averages 11.0 ypc. Matthews average has dipped in each of his three years in the league from 13.0 to 11.7 to 11.0. He was never a big yards per catch guy but his numbers are going the wrong way and at the young age of 25. Hopefully Zay Jones can be our guy to open up the field. At least Watkins is going to the Rams. Even if he stays healthy he is not likely to put up big numbers there which will make the trade tolerable.

I agree unless his pre-season performances resemble those from Dak last year.

LOL. Just because some say a guy is comparable it leads you down the road of "no he isn't let's make a bet to prove it'? If Sammy puts up only75 or 80% of Julio's numbers he's got a chance for a HOF career. They are still comparable at this point of their careers no matter what you think. Do I expect Sammy to go off for 1600 yards 100 receptions and 6 TD's? No. Do I expect him to go off for 1300 yards 85 receptions and 10 TDs? Yes. Again, everything leading up to year three for each player is very comparable. In fact probably not another more comparable player in the NFL currently. What Sammy does from year 4 and on we don't know. Basically three things can happen. He can continue to under produce, he can produce at a top 10 level, or he can produce at a HOF type level. Let's hope it is one of the two latter options.

So many things wrong here. 1. So we shouldn't try to make projections? Just wait until a players obvious place in history smacks us in the face? 2. Julio Jones was nowhere near the best receiver in NFL history after only three years in the league. 3. Sammy actually produced at a higher rate in each players second year. Yes Julio produced at higher rates in years 1 and 3. But with all the other similarities to their careers and I'd say these players are quite similar through three years. And Sammy having one year of better production helps. 4. Matt Ryan and falcons passing attack is way better for a receiver compared to EJ Manuel/Kyle Orton/Tyrod Taylor and the ground and pound rushing attack of the Buffalo Bills.

Nobody is saying he is way better. Or even better at all. But Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing attack >>>better situation for a receiver over Taylor and the ground and pound rushing attack of the Bills the last two seasons. I wouldn't really think that is debatable. And for what it is worth, if we look at year two numbers for each player Watkins put up better numbers despite playing with a more limited QB and offense. So we know Watkins has the ability and is capable of Julio Jones type production. Let's see what he does this year.

Yeah but then you have the Jacksonville debacle. Yes he came back and played well after the first quarter. But that first quarters was just SO BAD. And even last year against the Jets he was very bad all around. I think the proof really does show he is a really bad QB.

Old School, with all due respect you really can't see the significance of taking into account rushing numbers for QBs like Newton and Taylor? Obviously without that aspect of their games they wouldn't be starting QBs. 17 or 18 rushing TDs over a 16 or 18 year career doesn't have much significance. But 17 or 18 rushing TDs over just 3 or 4 seasons has a huge significance. Same thing with 500-600 rushing yards on a season. Also, with Taylor I still maintain that we have to see what he does in year three before we truly no what we have or don't have with him. His 2015 season was very good. His 2016 season was below average. His 2017 season will be the tiebreaking season for him. Another very good season from him like his 2015 season could very well likely cement him as our QB for the 2018 season. Yeah 17 passing TDs in 15 games is pretty poor. But what about 20 passing TDs in 14 games? All this of course complicated still with Watkins missing significant time in both 2015 and 2016. 30 total TDs should probably cement him as the starter for 2018. I think he gets real consideration around 26-27. At the same time I don't think I would be opposed to drafting a top QB prospect in the first round still and letting him sit for a couple years. Or just let the two duke it out in pre-season and see who wins the job. That's how Taylor won his starting job here to begin with. And other recent rookie QBs like Dak and Wilson showed similar early success and also won their jobs.

Correct. It was his second year. It wasn't just the Watt pick six that was bad in that game. IIRC EJ completed less than 50% of his passes in that game. I felt like EJ should have still been able to overcome that pick six and win the game for us but he couldn't. Orton's first four games provided a spark. But I recall by the time he played Denver late in the season I was ready to see EJ back again. That's how bad Orton's play had gotten.

You're over rating Clay big time IMO.

What play was this??

My question for you is this: When most of Taylor's numbers were well above average in 2015 was that something you were able to agree to? Or was he only average then? IMO, that is the correct way to view QB rankings. In other words, it is very likely that an "average QB" is somewhere between a 12 and 20 ranking in whatever kind of statistical ranking one wants to use. Meaning a 12 ranked QB is really not any better than the 20th. This is somewhat subjective of course and the spread can grow more or less year to year.

Holmes started his career in Baltimore so I don't think he qualifies if we are talking success with their original team.

I didn't mean to come off as rude. The thread title is "Unworthy HOF Members" obviously there is plenty to debate.

This isn't the Pro-Bowl. That's not how the voting works for the HOF. So maybe he should have an asterisk that says *Not in HOF for statistical value

There is an exception to every rule as we know. Who thought Rich Gannon would become an MVP at the age of 37?

If he puts numbers like that up not only will he be doing something right, he would possibly be the MVP of the league. Because you know in addition he'll likely have 500 rushing yards and another 5 TDs on the ground. Cam Newton put up 3800 yards 35 TDs 10 INTs and 7.75 ypa in his MVP season.

Nice guess. It's even closer than my Eli guess.

Now I have to look up Eli's stats to see how badly I missed.

Eli Manning?

The answer is: Make the playoffs or QB Rating north of 95 and 24+TD and 10 or fewer INTs

Not saying he should have been first ballot. But the guy had to wait SIX YEARS to get in. At the time he retired he was second all time only to Jerry Rice in receiving yards. He had nearly a 1,000 more receiving yards then the next player on the list at #3. I'd argue Brown probably should have easily been in by year 3 or at worse year 4 of eligibility.

Tim Brown was dominant too. Look at the QBs that guy played with for most of his career. He could have been basically been Jerry Rice if he played with Montana and Young his entire career.

It's kind of inconsistent though. When a guy like T.O. isn't in yet it doesn't seem like it is too easy to make the HOF. Tim Brown is another guy I thought had to wait longer than he should have.

Thank You! Kept waiting for someone to chime in about Bettis. He's is definitely a player on the top of that list IMO. What's his career rushing average 3.8ypc? Just because you played a longtime, were given attempt after attempt and racked up a bunch of yards doesn't mean you were any good and made the most of every opportunity. And he offered next to nothing as a receiving threat too. I 100% think Warner deserves to be in. TD is always a toss up but I am fine with him getting in. He is basically the opposite of Jerome Bettis. It does open up the possibility of other palyers getting in with short careers though. Priest Holmes put up some amazing numbers for like three seasons.

Exactly. Especially true since we play them week 1. We lose that game and it's going to be full on tank mode around here. And with the tough schedule on paper, if we can't beat the Jets week one, we are probably lucky to finish the season with four wins.