Posted this in another thread. Relevant for this one.
IF the Bills can win the next 3 AND go 2-2 in the final quarter, they make 10-6. 5 Wins= @Mia, NYJ, Clev, @Oak, GB
For the competition, I'll list games where they have a higher (than 50-50) chance of losing:
AFCW
KC 6-3: SEA, DEN, @AZ, @Pitt, SD. Lose 4 of 5. 9-7
SD 5-4: Pats, Den, @SF, @KC. Lose 3 of 4. 9-7
AFCN:
Clev 6-3: @Buf, Ind, @CAR, @Balt, Cin. Lose Ind, @Buf, and one of @Balt or Cin, so Pitt wins division and Bills win head-to-head.
Cinc 5-3-1: @NO, Pitt, @Clev, Den, @Pitt. Lose any 3 and they are 9-6-1.
Pitt 5-4: NO, @Cin, KC, Cin. Easiest schedule. Hope they win division (Bills have the head-to-head over Clev). Pitt needs to beat Cin twice in case Clev and Pitt are 10-6.
Balt 5-4: @NO, SD, @Mia, Clev. Lose 3 and they are 9-7.
Scenarios:
1. It's all moot if Bills don't take care of business.
2. If KC only loses 3 more games, then Pitt needs to win AFCN so Bills have tie breaker with Clev. I don't see SD doing better than 9-7.
3. If KC loses 4 more games, then most likely Pitt and Clev get in as Div winner and WC, with Bills as the other WC.
It would've been a hell of a lot easier had the Bills beat KC, but I believe they still have a pretty decent shot with #2 be most likely.