GunnerBill

I think ultimately it was the case for the Bills defense in 2023 too. I know they nearly did but you just don't win playoff games without that many guys on D. And even had they got past KC in the Divisional Round it would have sunk them against Baltimore in the AFCCG IMO. That is the only year where I think injuries ultimately doomed the Bills. Have they had great luck otherwise? No. They had White and then Von suffer season enders in consecutive years - their two most talented and highest paid defensive stars - that is really unfortunate and I don't think you will find any other team in the NFL to whom that happened that way.... but losing ONE player is never legitmately the reason for a playoff defeat unless that one guy is your Quarterback. So White missing 2021, Von missing 2022, Benford going out early in 2024.... they are not excuses. They are unfortunate. But you have to pull on your big boy pants, next man up and find a way.

Nor did I but as @gonzo1105 has said he fits a lot of the criteria the Bills look for - a good RAS profile (despite the speed issue), size, long arms, young, had him in on a 30 visit etc.

It isn't that he can't improve. It's that in round 1 (I know Keon was technically #33 but you take the point) you generally want high floor, high ceiling. By the end of the round those guys, inevitably, have gone so your choice is generally high floor, lower ceiling or low floor, high ceiling. Essnetially do you prefer the safe pick of swing for the fences. The problem with Keon is he is relatively low floor and lower ceiling. The way he has struggled so far in the pros is exactly the way those of us who didn't love him as a prospect thought he'd struggle. And the ways he has had success - screens and slants near the line of scrimmage 'ball in hand' and yards after catch - are the ways we thought he was most likely to succeed. When I first said as far ago as February last year that I thought he was a big slot at the next level I got a ton of pushback. Matt Harmon said the exact same thing 3 weeks later. So far the evidence supports our opinion.

Came off arrogant and aloof and as though he was doing them a favour just being there. Now the Bills wasn't the most attractive destination at the time, that's fair. But he also wasn't the hottest coordinator on the block after leaving Cleveland after one season. Interview was described as very short and with mutual loathing.

No. But it also is my take that they wouldn't have had the same post season success without the investments they made on that side of the ball. The bigger differntial was talent.

The first two playoff losses - Chargers and Titans was on him. He just wasn't up to it. But he has played pretty well since. I know he had a bad INT and a bad fumble vs us in January but he was also the reason they had a chance to win at the end. I don't put the KC game the previous year on him either. That was on the OC who called an atrocious game. He is over 70% passing in 3 of his last 4 playoff games.

Not while Pegula is here. They interviewed him in 2015 and flat out HATED him.

I think the Lamar narrative is kinda wrong though. I think there is a lot more to it in Baltimore too.

No teams don't luck into the Superbowl. But only one of the top 10 DVOA teams on your list over the period actually won the Superbowl (if I counted right). And I think that does reflect that isn't as straightforward as the best performing regular season teams by the advanced analytics go on and win Superbowls. Actually the old fashioned ranking system.... the team with the #1 seed and most wins have won more Superbowls over that period. I see Baltimore and Buffalo as very similar. More dominant regular season teams than KC in many ways. But don't find the ways to get it done in the post season.

I do think it is part luck. It is part Kansas City. But it is also part the playoffs and ultimately winning the Superbowl is about elite difference makers. I have held that view since long before the Bills were contenders. You normally need at least 4 elite guys to win a Superbowl. The Bills have never had more than 2 on the field together in the playoffs since that first AFCCG (when they had Josh, Diggs and Tre). And I think in those big moments it shows up. And then obviously there is one major coaching failure in there too in 2021. It's a combination of all that. EDIT: my general view is that the regular season is about how many weaknesses you have. The teams with fewest make the post season. Then the post season is about your strenghts much more.

Yea the Chiefs lost Mathieu in the game too didn't they? They were definitely hurting on the back end.

Not really true. They got lit up by the Colts in Andy's first year when they blew a huge lead. After that before swapping out Bobby Sutton for Spags the Chiefs played six playoff games and gave up more than 22 just twice at an average of 19.5. Both to Tom Brady and the Patriots - 27 in the 2015 divisional loss and 37 in the 2018 AFCCG OT loss. They were 2-4 in those games mainly because their offense couldn't score. Their first nine playoff games with Spags as DC they kept teams under 22 just three times and the average points given up ticked up slightly. They really only got better on defense when they started drafting defense early and often. McDuffie, Karlaftis, Bolton, Chenal, Cook... etc.

I don't know if it's the last year but the fact they are now doing no more than year to year agreements does suggest they are open to moving from SJF at some point.

Chris Jones was not a trade. The Chiefs drafted him in the second round.... I had a first round grade on him.

Totally agree. This time last year I thought we might be edging toward an opening up of that field. But at least for 2025 it remains a three horse race in the AFC IMO.

And that was a hastily instituted arrangement in light of the other Rice back in the day.....

I'm not down on Bernard. He is a good NFL MLB. He isn't a guy you need to upgrade. I wad not going into the offseason saying the Bills must get better there. I just feel of the contracts we had coming up he was the most expendable when you look at a matrix of talent, impact and positional value.

Yea agree. I don't think it is at all the case that you always see signs the previous year. It often happens fast. I'm not saying it will happen to Henry. But I would not be shocked if this year he gets nicked up and slows some and isn't the force of 2024.

I don't think Bernard is a bad player. That isn't my argument at all. He is fine. But just fine.

I do think this is a better schedule than the last two. All our toughest games are at home and while we might lose 1 or 2 of them no way the Josh Allen / Sean McDermott Buffalo Bills are dropping 4 home games. Honestly.... 14-3 and the #1 seed is in play IMO.

That was Jason Croom. He is like three 3rd string TEs ago.

Douglas was HORRIBLE last year. One of the worst starting corners in football. I'm not at all shocked he remains unsigned.

Agree totally with this. It is 100% correct. Bernard is the worst contact we have done this offseason both in principle and in price IMO. I'd rather have given Cook the $43m over 3 years than give it to Bernard over 4.

Smoot will get a late camp call somewhere if he wants one. No idea whether Cooper still wants to play but the word on him out of Buffalo seems to be that he is washed and that has circulated round the rest of the league. I suspect he could still sign somewhere but it would be a very low level contract and maybe his ego won't allow that? I think the rest of that list is toast.

He didn't drop it. He didn't get hands on it. His route wasn't perfect but nor was Tyrod's throw. Other than my personal life admin grip I actually love the way the schedule sets up for the Bills. I honestly think they have a really strong shot at the #1 seed.