GunnerBill

More acceleration probably but I wouldn't say no to some elite lateral quickness too. Nacua is a great RAC receiver. No doubt. That isn't what I mean by explosiveness. I mean someone who can win quickly in routes with explosive acceleration. Yes I agree. You do. You never pass on a superior talent because of need.

Not true. Designated as a post June 1 cut Von saves $6.7m on this year's cap. The cap hit in 2025 is $15m whether you cut him as a post 1 June or after the 2024 season. So that money has been factored in any way. The only thing they lose is the ability to spread that $15m over two years - 2025 and 2026 by cutting him a year earlier than they originally planned. Of course it means you have $17m of dead cap this year that they were not planning for. But it does not make the cap worse. That money is there whether Von plays or not. The only question that it raises is: Do you want Von Miller at $23.7m or Player X at $6.7m on the roster in 2024? And for me I think Von's toast. Give me player X.

I wouldn't describe Nacua as explosive. He is good, and he is tough to bring down after the catch, he had over 600 yards of YAC but I wouldn't call him explosive. The Bills need guys who can separate quickly. I'm not saying the 40 time is the be all and end all by the way, it's definitely not. But the need in this offense is explosiveness.

Yea, it is. But the two jobs it looks like was offered was Carolina in 2023 and Washington in 2024. They are both bad jobs IMO. He probably has to make the jump next year though, or else teams will just stop calling.

Tre - I'd be willing to part ways but I'd try and renegotiate first, give him some guaranteed money (he has none) in exchange for an actual pay cut; Poyer - I'd keep another year, small restructure to turn $3m of his $4.7m base salary into restructure bonus adding a void year in 25 saving us $1.5m in cap space and getting his hit down to c. $6m (I just think losing both of your two mainstay safeties in one year is best avoided and Poyer still had a good season and was an above average starting safety even his best days are behind him) Morse - I'd be willing to part ways if needs be - again you could add a void year and spread the hit out if you wanted to but I think I'd hold onto him until I see whether I get a guy in the draft (either at guard or center, because McGovern can play center as well) Knox - No. We didn't see the best of Dawson this year with the injuries. I still think for now we need an all rounder with his skillset while we focus on Dalton as a receiving weapon. The guy I am more willing than most to move on from and take my medicine this offseason is Von Miller. He saves me c.$7m against the cap as a post 1 June cut. Okay it is $17m additional dead cap on what they were originally planning for (the $15m dead money next year is already baked in) and that isn't ideal but I don't think he is any more than a backup at this point. So can I get a younger rotational player using that c.$7m? I think I can. And I'm not in a rush to bring any of our big ticket free agents back to be honest. I'd be interested in DaQuan if he is willing to take a 1 year deal and AJE if he ends up not finding his value on the market and circles back on a reasonable deal. But Gabe Davis, Micah Hyde, Leonard Floyd, Jordan Phillips, Tim Settle, Poona Ford... they can all go. Dane Jackson, Tyrel Dodson, Taylor Rapp and David Edwards at deals worth $1.7-2.5m I'd try to keep. If they get more than that on the market, good luck to them.

Washington were 24th in yards, and 25th in points offensively in 2023. I think that is probably a very slight overperformance of their talent but not significant. They had some success early in the year with Sam Howell, but he cooled off as the season went on. I quite like him as a gamer. Think he definitely has a future in the league but probably not as a starter. He reminds me a lot of Baker Mayfield though and with better talent he could have some success. Bienemy went there to prove he wasn't just riding Reid and Mahomes's coat tails. I think he proved he can coach, he is a credible OC. But he didn't prove himself more than that. I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up sitting this year out, or takes essentially an advisory role somewhere, but he will be back as an OC in 2025. I think his shot at Head Coach jobs are passed though. You are a hot candidate for a relatively short window and once your window is gone it can be gone for good. I always cite Ray Horton for this. He was a really hot HC candidate for two cycles - think it was 2012 and 2013 - he is now coaching in the USFL. Teryl Austin was another - he had three years in the mid-2010s of multiple interviews. He is still in the league as the Steelers DC they finished 6th best this year in points against, but there were zero interviews coming out of it. His moment has passed. Kellen Moore might be going the same way. Had a couple of hot years when he first became OC in Dallas where he had multiple HC interviews. Other than a courtesy interview as a man on staff in LA he didn't have a sniff this year.

I don't think he is going to run a 4.45. He is more a low 4.5s guy I think. I think Mitchell is a good player. He will have 1,000 yard receiving seasons in the NFL. But I suspect if we draft him we will be back in a position in a year's time where we are talking about needing more explosiveness from that position and a guy who can win early in routes. Maybe they are able to come back and find that in a more limited player in the middle rounds and the combination of the two gets them through. But they only have three roles on the field in most packages. Diggs (presumably still here) will be one, Shakir will be another, how often are you getting both rookies on the field?

I think explosiveness is absolutely the #1 trait the Bills need. Way, way, way more important than size. Sure, hands is #2. But they need a guy who is explosive.

I have said it multiple times but they are in a MUCH healthier roster place this offseason than last. Yes they will lose their safety axis finally. And they need to re-stock the Dline, but the have some rookie contract contributors. This time a year ago the 2022 draft looked like it might be a dud. Instead we have four starters from it and then the first two picks of 2023 look like hits. The Bills needed that. And they need to stack another class like that now.... while finding that elusive receiver at the same time ideally.

Yea. I disagree with them. I'm fine to be out on my own on it. I've watched 6 full games of his, I have a late 1st round grade on him on the basis of that tape. He may well go day 2, that's the draft. It's a game of opinions. If he is there at #28 I'd be very satisfied if he were the pick. I think his chance of being the pick are worse post senior bowl, but it wouldn't put me off personally.

Yea I knew he was highly recruited.

Yea. I think they need 1 DL on day 2 ideally, but then they absolutely need to find guys who can contribute in the rotation on day 3. Whether that is at tackle or end.

I think he is an early day 2 guy.

Physically yea, I think there is some technical refinement that can still help him use his tools. But I don't think he is a starter. He just might get in the rotation somewhere though if he can tidy technique up.

Well we have the next group ranked very differently then haha.

Haha yep. Think bigger needs. If one of the top 3 got there, sure. But not sure the second tier of receivers would be must haves for them.

Good question. I think Eagles are a question mark because of the AJ Brown speculation. But I agree if he stays put they are out of the round 1 receiver stakes. I think you are right: Jags, Cowboys, Bengals are the main three in that second wave of potential WR teams I think. I suspect Evans will stay in Tampa and as such they feel like more a day 2 receiver team to me but if he walks day 1 is a possibility. Then yep, a Chiefs trade up is the other one to watch. I do think the Texans are a wildcard as well. They have a couple of good receivers but if a receiver was BPA there I wouldn't totally rule it out.

Yea he is a day 3 guy (most Shrine guys are tbh). But I like him some as a developmental pass rusher.

I wouldn't hate Rice in round 2 but he is an early 3rd grade for me right now and as a Bills fit - only if they have found an explosive guy in the first.

Man I wanted them to draft Reader so bad that year. The view at the time was DT was not a need but he was pretty much a certain long term starter for a day 3 pick. Ugh. Spotrac has him making upwards of $14m AAV based on the Dalvin Tomlinson contract (which I am certain will be a starting point for his agents) so I think he probably is beyond us now. If he doesn't get what he wants in the first wave and is a dust settles guy I could see it but I suspect he will get a good contract. On Sweat I think he is more than just a two down run stuffer. I know his sack production in college isn't fantastic but on tape he wins a lot of his pass rush reps. If he was there at the end of the 2nd I'd strongly consider him. He won't be though. And he definitely isn't worth a round 1 pick. I think he will go somewhere in the top half of the second round. He has enough pass rushing ability to justify a 2nd round pick I think.

I think we would probably be somewhere in the top 3rd rotation wise. But I think you'd find a lot of good teams in that area too. I just looked at the Ravens as well. Madubuike is at 65%. Two guys mid 50s everyone else below. The good teams generally have depth up there and are heavy rotations. The teams who rotate least tend to be that way because they lack good backups and it makes them vulnerable at the end of games because their pass rushers are gassed. The main question is can the Bills build that depth cheaper than they have thus far. The Von contract obviously hurst. So the likely answer for next year is - no. But from 2025 and beyond they need to look at how they stock that unit. They probably are due another early pick on the DL (they haven't made one in the past two drafts) but then they have to be cleverer on the vet market.

There is no way where getting out this year is better that getting out after next year in dead cap terms. But there is way where getting out this year is better than wasting more money with a post 1 June cut.

Are there a lot of innovative offensive coordinators who have paid their dues? Who are they?

I second this.

I haven't really broken him down so not much. I think I am probably still guilty of thinking "this guy 1st overall, really?" from three years ago when he went into his last year Oklahoma as the presumptive #1 pick and lost his job. But I need to have a real dig into his film.