GunnerBill

I think Newton is the best DT in the draft but I love Murphy too. The issue with both is they are 3Ts. If you draft either of them how do you get them on the field? They play the same position as Ed Oliver. Ed played 70% of snaps last year. Even if you are in the camp that says that was too many and it needs to tick down he isn't going below 65%. So how much are you getting Murphy out there for? I love the player. Not sure I see the fit here.

Except he isn't. There is no way to realise that level of Tre saving unless he can pass a medical in the next 10 days.

So here is where I am.... once you get out of the top 10 I am not sure how many receiver landing spots there are. Vikings at 11? Obviously not. Jefferson and Addison. Broncos at 12? Put the house on a QB. Vegas at 13? Too many other needs and have Devonte. Saints at 14? Too many other needs. Colts at 15? Possible. But Pittman on the tag lessens the chance. Seattle at 16? No chance. DK, Lockett and JSN. Jacksonville at 17? Yes. First receiver spot outside the top 10 for me. Cincy at 18? Not with Higgins tagged, no. LA at 19? Nope. Kupp and Nacua. Steelers at 20? Nope. Pickens and Johnson. Dolphins at 21? Nope. Waddle and Hill. Eagles at 22? Very outside chance if they are trading AJ Brown. Otherwise, no. Texans at 23? Possible. Think they more likely go vet route though and use this pick on defense. Cowboys at 24? Yes. They could go OL but I think they are in the WR market. Pack at 25? Nope. They have a nice young bunch. Tampa at 26? Possible if Evans walks. No chance if he doesn't. Cardinals at 27? Almost certainly taken a WR in the top 10 so no. It is definite the top 3 are gone. The likelihood is Thomas is also gone. I think one more guy could be too. But I reckon 6 in the first (which is the all time record) is about where it will land. What the Bills have to be wary of is a team (Kansas City from #32 or Carolina from #33) coming up and jumping them for that 5th or 6th guy.

Agree. I have spoken in the last week to respected evaluators in the twittersphere, one or two lesser known talky heady types, and two guys who have scouted in the league (one who still does). Of the 8 opinions I have sought on this class all but one had the consensus top three as the consensus top 3 (and the outlier had Brian Thomas #3 and Odunze #4). Here are the names I have heard as the "next guy" after the top 3: Brian Thomas Jnr x3 (including the one who has him 3rd) Keon Coleman x2 Adonai Mitchell x1 Xavier Worthy x1 Troy Franklin x1 I was trying to find someone else who, like me, has Xavier Legette as their #4. I was unsuccessful. I found one guy who had him #5 and two who had him #6 (although also one guy who had him #12). Basically it appears to me that it will be the top 3. Then either Thomas or Coleman will be the 4th guy. But after that.... all bets are off. The order is all over the place.

In 2022 they committed to him as a starter and brought no serious competition in for him. I agree he is the perfect 6th lineman because he can play either guard spot, center or right tackle in a pinch. My issue isn't with them signing him. It was with them handing him the right guard spot. Cybo, despite definitely struggling a tad the second half of his rookie year was a major upgrade.

Fair (although I don't really include Kincaid last year was a bit different... bad class so higher floor safer guys went earlier). But Josh, Elam, Tremaine, even to an extent Ed (if you are only looking at sack production) were all traits over college production. And Chop doesn't have no production. It is not like when Jayson Oweh came out of the same school with zero sacks his final year. I am not advocating for Chop btw. I am sceptical but I see the traits and I could see the Bills liking them enough to forgive the fact his production has not been stellar.

I hadn't got to the tape of the safeties at that point. My first mock is more about playing out team needs and finding prospects that fit than it is an evaluation of every player within it.

Already used it on Winfield.

Disagree. Their first round picks have generally been traits guys more than production.

Well given he didn't do well in drills and now isn't a 2nd round pick (by Charlie's calculations) if they wanted to pick him at #100 I wouldn't hate it haha.

Very fair. But I do think the changed landscape was a factor. It is likely getting harder not easier for 'Bama from here. And at 62 maybe he is up for that fight. At 72, less so.

Yes he wants players to get paid. But not in a way that shakes up the status quo. I don't blame him for that. He is an old dude now. I think 2023 was one of his best coaching jobs. To get that 'Bama team to the final 4 and to within a play of beating the eventual champs was a hell of a job. With any other coach that was a borderline top 10 team. But there is no doubt in my mind that NIL and the transfer portal were factors in his decision. Nick spent 15 years at the top. He had a dynasty that likely never gets matched. But like it or not you can't just out recruit and outcoach folks now. That isn't the game anymore. And Saban decided the landscape that left wasn't for him.

I don't like Kinchens tape either. He is my SF5 at the moment. I know a lot have him higher but he isn't for me.

No player dominates every game. That isn't the NFL. You can't cherry pick the games you like and the ones you don't. His playoff numbers are solid. He has played well in the post season for the Bills. End of story. I will tell you when he hasn't played well. I am not disingenuously spouting shite here. When he underperforms as he did against KC this year I will say it. Yea. It isn't true.

I mean I agree all that is relevant. But nobody has bitched about NIL and the transfer portal more than Nick. Not without cause I might add. He is the greatest college coach of all time IMO, and I have no college rooting interest so there is no subjectivity here - but I do think he just concluded he didn't want to compete in this new world.

I like Cowling. I tend to have a lower ceiling for slots but I like him. 3rd round grade for me. Williams..... I was excited to see in the Shrine Game.... but he was really disappointing and I have gone back to his tape since and I do not see it at all. Doesn't run proper routes. Don't see a ton of separation. I think he will catch on somewhere and he will have a couple of 200-300 yars seasons in the NFL. But not sure he will be a lot better than that.

1. I didn't disagree with the post I was replying to. That I disagreed with other posts in other threads isn't relevant here. 2. The 13 seconds game for a start. He was our best defender by a mile that day. But you disagree. It is fine. 2 sacks, 5 TFL, 8 QB hits, 9 pressures and a pass defensed in 10 playoff games are good numbers for a defensive tackle. Just for comparison.... took Chris Jones 9 playoff starts to log a single TFL and 12 to log a sack. I am not saying Ed Oliver > Chris Jones. I am saying you need to have a proper perspective on his numbers. 3. Fair enough. But don't accuse me of letting Beane off for the lack of elite playmakers through the draft. I have made that point for multiple years.

I can see it. I don't like it particularly but he is the one non-WR who is a realistic a possibility to be there in and around the range of where we pick who I could imagine us picking. Edit: I typed non QB originally. Obviously I meant non WR d'oh!

From Michigan but played his college ball at Missouri, yes. I definitely agree if Latu (UCLA) is on the board you pick him. He is almost certainly the BPA at that spot. As discussed above I'd be more wary on Chop Robinson (Penn St) but I can imagine the Bills loving him.

Yep. Agree totally with this. He did, at the Senior Bowl, show more explosion than you saw on tape but then his run at the Combine was disappointing. I think he is exactly as you say in a 4-3 - just a bigger end who plays the run and bull rushes. To me his best fit is as a 5 tech in a 3-4 but I think someone will convince themselves that he can be a speed rusher outside, particularly from a two point stance as an 3-4 outside backer. I hope that someone isn't the Bills.

I don't know. Nor do I know if McDermott does that.

I don't think he was suggesting you were arguing to run it back. He was directing that at the Bills. He was their 5th choice safety in 2023. Cam Lewis was out there ahead of him. I agree he wasn't very good pre-Cincinnati and while I am relieved, happy and respectful of his comeback he isn't a guy I'd count on.

1. I didn't disagree emoji the post I responded to. I have told you before I don't see you name and instantly click disagree because you are negative. I only click disagree when I genuinely disagree on your takes. 2. The only guy I strongly disagree on is Ed Oliver. I know you don't agree because I saw you argue it elsewhere so no need to rehearse it here, but Ed's playoff numbers are solid. He didn't play well against KC this year, no argument there. But Ed has stood up in the playoffs as a rule. The other person you can make an argument for is Dawson Knox. 39 targets, 28 catches, 19 first downs and 6 touchdowns in 10 games. Neither of them have had a "Gabe Davis vs KC" type single game but both have been consistently good for the Bills in the playoffs. 3. I think generally I have been saying "Beane needs to draft more difference makers" since before you were on this forum. He is good compared to his peers at finding NFL starters in the draft. He is less good at finding the elite level difference makers. When Taron Johnson was voted 2nd team all pro this year he was the first Brandon Beane draft pick not name Josh Allen to make an all pro team. That is a problem. 4. I at no point have sought to excuse Beane from culpability for our cap situation and my posts are very clear on that (although I wouldn't describe it as a mess necessarily, think that overplays it... but we definitely have a cap crunch that is in part of his own making). All I did was add the context of around VOID YEARS which was, after all, what this thread is actually about.

Yes.

I wasn't seeking to disagree with what you said. Just to add additional context. While Beane is accountable for where we are cap wise he did just get plain unlucky having to extend Josh Allen in the middle of the restricted cap era and that has exacerbated some of the problems. It isn't an explanation for all of it, but when talking about why we are where we are cap wise it is a part of the picture that shouldn't be overlooked.