GunnerBill

Don't mind any of these guys actually as guys to compete for the backend jobs in those rooms. Smoot is the one I give the best chance of making the roster. But I see the sense in all 3 moves.

I have cut him slack. I think the potential he has is in the "plus" column for him. I think physically there is more to come and there is room for some coaching on the nuances. I recognise that in my initial evaluation summary of him above.

I think when they got down to their best two options being Dodson and Klein you HAD to put Klein at Mike. He couldn't have played will. His horizontal movement was never his strength even when he was a full time NFL player. The alternative, much discussed in that KC buildup week, was Dodson at Mike and Williams at Will which they did try a bit second half. And I think the fact was they just didn't trust Williams. When he came in against Pittsburgh he kept lining up incorrectly. I think that you are probably right though that Morrow is their preferred MLB reserve for 2024.

I take a different view on the value of the picks the Bills made in the mid rounds. I am not super high on Carter as a player, I do like Davis a fair bit but I'm not sure I agree with you on the importance of a rotational DT and a short yardage back as difference making moves for this team in 2024. Equally I do think our WR room is bottom 3. In terms of PROVEN production at the NFL level we have Samuel and his circa 550 yards per season average over his 6 healthy seasons, Mack Hollins a career backup and half a season of Khalil Shakir. that is not a lot of proven production. Then we have some question marks. I think it is pretty thin. Where I agree with you is on the value of offensive tackle.

I don't agree with all of this but I do have sympathy with the first para. Personally I'm still of the view at top tier LT is as valuable as any receiver. What I do think is there are fewer top tier LTs than there are elite level WR talents and that is just a product of the college game and the way it is being played, but I'm of the view that a bad blindside tackle is one of the easiest ways to lose a football game. I'd add the rebuild of the Lions to your list of tackle savvy teams. They have the best tackle duo in football and I personally think Decker and Sewell are more important to that offense than St Brown.

His first five seasons in the NFL 2016-2021 he was one of the best LBs in football. Zero doubt. It was much commented on at the time in the Tremaine Edmunds debates but at the time there was definitely an inbalance in LB talent that skewed towards the NFC. He had some injuries never quite seemed to recover some of his speed and his zest after that. I am surprised he isn't older to be honest. But this is his 4th team in 4 years for a reason. He isn't quite the guy he used to be.

They didn't call Klein because they didn't have faith in Dodson. Dodson had been starting at WILL for like 10 weeks while Klein was on the couch. They signed Klein back after Dodson himself got hurt and they were down to Bernard (who then also proceeded to get hurt), Williams (rookie who had struggled) and Spector (never played at linebacker in meaningful NFL games before). They were totally comfortable with Dodson. It was Williams as next man up after the next man up who they were not comfortable with and the injury to Dodson is what brought Klein back. I am 100% confident if the Bills could have got Dodson back for what Morrow signed for (which was where I got the $1.5m-$2m range - what Morrow is making this year vs what Dodson did last) then Dodson would still be here. There is zero doubt in my mind on that. I agree with the final point, that the Bills have at times had a lot of well paid depth. It gave them one of the deepest rosters in football but it definitely limited their ability at times to pursue bigger ticket items in FA.... although can be argued the one time they did it hasn't exactly worked out. In a year where they have decided to take some pain on the cap they are knowingly trying to reduce that amount. It's a strategy I support. I suspect though we haven't seen the last of Dodson. If it doesn't work out in Seattle wouldn't be shocked to see him back in Buffalo in the next 2-3 seasons.

Personally I think that is quite likely. Agree that isn't Coleman's fault. It is just my view as to where he is and what the performance arc looks like.

I agree. That is the crux of it. The problem as I see it for the Bills is that they have a big hole at outside receiver and there is a lot of pressure on this kid to fill it day 1.

Maybe for your age group and your demographic but the next generation will just enjoy it for what it is. That's been the way since the beginning of sports. With each set of generational changes you get the generation that grew up with the old game who say "it was better in my day." I turn 40 in a couple of weeks *sobs* and me and my mates get nostalgic over Premier League soccer from the 90s when the game was played at 100mph and was a bit more blood and thunder. I made my 19 year old second cousin sit and watch a re-run of an old game with me over Xmas and he was like "this is utter crap it's so basic, just like a fight on a soccer field." His generation much prefer the smoother, more methodical, less physical style of today. I don't speak to any teenage Americans (I'm guessing there are not many of those here) but I suspect you'd get a similar feeling re. the NFL. You will have to ask the league why they always tend to go for early in the season. There are some ground availability issues as you get later in the year (they normally try and coincide at least one of the weeks with the Premier League break for international fixtures) but I don't think there is anything insurmountable. I wonder whether they think weather is a factor too that might affect attendances for the neutral fans who are not hardcore of either team.

That is possible but would mean that team is still at a disadvantage by having the earliest possible bye - week 4. Because last year the Jags games were home (Wembley) week 4 and road (toilet bowl) week 5. So in order for the home team to get the chance to go over a week before they'd have to have the week 4 bye. But the NFL is going to persist with this idea over the next few years and as you say see if teams can adjust / find a way to deal with it. They will only accept defeat once they have tried every possible way to make it work. Won't be the Bills.

Not sure that's fair. Zeke was very good his first four years. His last three years in Dallas he was trading on his reputation more than his performance but his first 4 seasons he had almost 5,500 yards at over 4.6 a clip with 40 touchdowns. I didn't like Dallas drafting him as high as they did because he is a running back but he was legit those first 4 years. In fact Zeke is the poster boy for why you don't take a running back top 10 and why you should be wary of taking them first round at all. He was elite his first four years on his rookie deal, so Dallas paid him. Then very quickly you see the tread wear down and his production can't match up to the contract. Draft them later, use that tread for 4 years of a rookie deal, let them walk and rinse and repeat.

Ah that's true. Forgot Hall was a 2nd. Thought he was a first. They had three firsts that year but they were Sauce, Wilson and Jermaine Johnson weren't they? Hall early 2nd.

Agree with that. He isn't enough of a bruiser for a guy his size and he doesn't have the speed to be a breakaway threat. To be under 4 yards per carry after 3 years (admittedly not great lines in front of him and not facing many light boxes) is a big disappointment for a use of a 1st round pick. I wouldn't swap James Cook for him tbh.

On this they'd have loved to bring Dodson back IMO. Had Milano never got hurt, had Dodson never had the chance to play and showcase his ability I am all but certain he'd be here again on a 1 year vet minimum type deal. But once he got in and played as he did (and I think the Bills always had a ton of faith in him hence he made the team as an UDFA and they stuck with him every year thereafter) he was always going to get paid low end starter money and the Bills couldn't afford that for a guy who was essentially going to be a backup for them. I think he and Dane Jackson both fitted into that category. Guys the Bills would have loved to have back on backup salaries ($1.5-2m) but couldn't afford to have back on low end starter salaries (they both got $4.25m) given their cap situation.

I can't understand the thinking that Spector will be cut. He is close to a lock to me. He has played 60% of ST snaps his two years here and they have already lost a number of their core ST guys. Add to that he was actually serviceable when he had to play some linebacker late in the year. They have signed Morrow and drafted Ulofoshio who both in theory offer some STs ability but Spector has actually been there and done it for them and on a unit where they are already facing considerable turnover I just don't see them voluntarily giving that up. My personal view is that the 4 incumbents are on the team: Bernard, Milano, Spector, Williams. Then I think the rest are fighting over two spots. I'd be surprised if Jones makes it personally. I was his biggest fan. I had a first round grade on him coming out back in 2016 when the consensus was lower than that. But after being awesome his first five years in the league he has been pretty bad the past three years.

Don't draft first round running backs unless they are really exceptional. Najee and Travis that year were good prospects. Neither was exceptional. Wait for the Jets to be here in two years with Breece.

Was an elite player for a few years. But once the speed went he declined quickly.

I still think on the Michigan State tape there are balls he fails to make a play on because he is in the wrong position having given up leverage outside and so what looks like it is a contested catch shouldn't have been.

I see no route to Spector being cut. He is a core STer and they have lost guys in that room AND he played well when called upon at LB last year. Morrow is a bit more of a chance but I suspect he makes it.

I am not fixated on speed. My concerns on Coleman came way before the 40 time. And I said right after the Combine that I thought he could run faster than that. It is about separation for me, especially vertically, and while straight line speed is a factor in that it isn't the only one. Explosion and release package at the line both need work and his understanding of how to use leverage needs work. Can some of it be coached up - yes. But this is exactly my point. I think it needs coaching up and you are not gonna get him there by week 1 of year 1 IMO. So comparing 40 times isn't the point here for me. All of the scouting report I prepared above on Coleman was pre-Combine. He was literally the 3rd guy in the entire class that I got through way back in January. I still disagree on contest catches too. I think he needs to be a lot better there. Can he become a dominant outside receiver in time? Possibly. Is that going to be where he is most able to have success early in the NFL? Not for me. He did in 2023 I am afraid (compared to his own previous standard not compared to joe average NFL QB). His decision making regressed compared to the three previous seasons.

The way I see it QB, RB and TE are set. I think Coleman, Shakir, Samuel and Hollins are probably in at receiver. One or two spots left to shoot for. Back of the OL room is a battle. If they want to keep Grable I think he might have to go on the 53. On defense back end of the DL is a competition. I reckon the top 4 DTs - Ed, Daquan, Johnson and Carter are set. I think at edge Groot, AJE, Von are set and Solomon is probably in to protect their investment (unless he looks way out of his depth then watch for the old Brandon Beane redhsirt IR special). That leaves 1 or 2 spots there for the rest. Linebackers I agree they will keep 6 and they are pretty set. I think Hardy is a lock at corner though. He was drafted to be a backup corner and their primary returner. He is in. Lewis will make it but as the 4th safety behind Bishop, Rapp and Edwards. Hamlin will be cut.

Sadly I agree with a lot of this. My scouting report on Coleman was basically (this is almost word for word my original notes on him). 1. Elite size and fast enough without top end speed - seems to move faster with the ball than when running routes. 2. Does not separate, espeically vertically. Lacks explosion in his get off which often results in him giving up leverage early in the down when outside. 3. Hands are okay but doesn't win enough contested catches for a guy with his size (my point there basically not a lot of "drops" in the true sense of the word but a lot of balls he could make a play on and reel in that he doesn't manage to) 4. Better uses his leverage and size when deployed from the slot and gets a free release. That allows him to dictate to the DB better. 5. YAC monster, surprisingly fluid when ball carrying for a guy his size and tough to bring down in the open field. 6. Excellent and willing run blocker. 7. Very young probably not yet fully developed physically. NFL coaching and conditioning could help his explosion which might give him a better chance in time outside. Ideal usage: big slot receiver, some outside use in redzone and goalline. Developmental prospect as an outside receiver between the 20s. Late 2nd round grade. (He ended up #50 overall on my board FWIW) _ _ _ _ _ If the Bills had a true #1 (still had the Diggs of two years ago for example) and were bringing Coleman in as a potential upgrade to Gabe I'd completely have got it. He has some similar traits and good reason to think his ceiling is higher. But if they bring this kid in stick him outside and expect him to be your #1 outside receiver early I fear you are setting him and your team up to be disappointed.

I think is a factor he isn't the factor. This kind of offense where you don't have a single guy who you can rely on to always be open puts an extra premium on decision making. We have to get better than 2023 Josh to give that a shot of working. If it doesn't it won't really be Josh's fault. It will be Beane's fault for giving him the talent he has given him either because the guys couldn't get open or because if Josh again struggles at times with a decision maker it will prove why giving him those elite talented weapons to make those decisions easier matters.

It might take us a while. It is depending on us hitting the ground running. I'm not convinced Brady is the answer. I do think he will be better than Dorsey who I was not a fan of for this team and I do think he was one of the better available options. But ultimately the proof will be in the pudding.