Rocky Landing

Well, I guess you can remove context from numbers, and then numbers from context. Beasley’s production dropped over 30% last season from the previous with more targets. As to your second point, league statistics have literally nothing to do with the point you’re refuting. Zay Jones, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Stephon Diggs are all vet WRs who have had career-high seasons with Allen throwing them the ball. Pointing out that that is a statistical outlier doesn’t refute my point. One could argue that it strengthens it.

Regardless of Beasley’s locker room fit (which is all conjecture, btw) his production fell off significantly (over 30%) with more targets. And Crowder’s average salary on the Jets was $9.5M. Of course he walked in FA.

You made this point somewhere up thread, and I think in some cases you’re removing context from numbers. For example, you’ve brought up Beasley’s “production” vs Crowders. And yes, Beasley had more production Last season than Crowder. But in context, that’s not an fair comparison. Beasley is one of several vet WRs to have their career best seasons with Allen throwing them the ball. IMO, a more accurate comparison is to look at the two WR’s production before arriving in Buffalo, and Beasley’s and Crowder’s production in their seasons prior were very similar. The bigger difference was that Beasley was in Dallas with Tony Romo, and then Dak Prescott, while Crowder was on two crap teams with a string of pedestrian QBs. If Crowder is given Beasley’s role, it’s not unreasonable to expect Crowder to have a more productive ‘22 than Beasley’s ‘21. And that would be an upgrade, no?

Kim reading this thread: "... man, this season can't start soon enough..."

It's only week-one of the longest, five and a half week, black hole of the offseason before training camp. Buckle up.

I’ve been following this thread daily, and there are a few perspectives I’m a little surprised by on here. Gabriel Davis: There’s been a narrative on here and in the media that the Bills will be “taking a risk” with Davis as the #2WR. I think we could all see his potential at the beginning of ’21, and I feel like it’s clear that he developed into exactly that. He has a great catch radius, and can win contested targets. His separation improved. The third-down sideline throw to Davis where his toes are inbounds, and he is catching the ball as he is falling out of bounds was a weekly occurrence, and impossible to defend against. IMO, Davis ended the season a legit #2, and I don’t see why that would be a risk. We know who he is. Beasley vs. Crowder: Looking at Beasley’s numbers for the ’21 season, I was actually surprised that his production hadn’t fallen off more than it did. He had more targets, but fewer receptions, yards, and TDs from the previous season. And, I think the biggest falloff for him was his ability to get separation. Beasley had Tony Romo and Dak Prescott throwing him the ball for most of his career, but he didn’t have his career-high season until 2020 with Josh Allen. Crowder has had crap QBs, on crap teams, throwing him the ball his entire career, and his production was very similar to Beasley’s in Dallas. If Crowder is given a similar role to Beasley’s, I think it’s reasonable to predict that Crowder will have a career season in Buffalo as well. Hopefully, he can stay healthy. Austin vs. Stevenson vs. Hodgins vs. Kumerow vs. The Rest of the Bubble WRs: The arguments for depth WRs is always pretty amusing this time of year, and there seems to be no shortage of table-pounding this time around. I don’t think Kumerow belongs in the same conversation as the rest of the bubble WRs. I agree with @GunnerBill that Kumerow’s main competition is Taiwan Jones as a special teamer, although I don’t agree that they can’t both make the team. Jones has zero value as a RB, but Kumerow does have value as a WR, even though he had a couple notable drops last season that dropped that value. I am mystified by the table-pounding over Hodgins, and Stevenson. Stevenson stinks on ice. The best thing we have ever heard about Hodgins was a blithe compliment during his rookie training camp from Diggs about how well he (and Davis) had learned the playbook. At least Duke Williams had a compelling backstory. I think Tanner Gentry has a better chance of making the roster than these two. Opinions on Austin are all over the board, and the most intriguing, IMO. My initial thought was that he would be camp competition for P/KR— perhaps to help elevate Shakir’s return game— and would have very little chance of making the 53. Maybe he'd be a veteran on the PS? But, reports out of OTAs (they certainly gave him plenty of reps), the timing of his acquisition, and frankly his press conferences, have me wondering…

IMO, the Bills started increasing their focus on the run in the second half of last season. They started '21 without an effective run game, and were exposed as a spread-offense-only team. I also think that the improvement we saw in the run game by the end of the season had little to do with Singletary's play, and everything to do with the O-line. And then in the offseason, they continued this trend with the addition of Saffold, and hiring Kromer. They went after McKissic, and then acquired Duke Johnson, and drafted Cook in the second. And I'm not even saying that we're going to see more run plays, and fewer pass plays. We're certainly not going to stop being a spread offense. But, the offensive moves they made in the off-season point to improving the run. I think that is especially true wrt the O-line. And If they acquired receivers who can "participate in the run game," as you suggest, then as a spread offense, they have increased their priority on the run game.

I've been vacillating on the notion of keeping seven WRs. Its was a luxury last season, and I started leaning towards seven when they acquired Austin. But, I don't think it's going to happen. IMO, the Bills have committed to improving the run game. They have signed a TE (Howard), and drafted a RB (Cook) that they hope will be receiving threats. If Howard continues to struggle, it increases the chance they hold onto Sweeney. They may very well carry ten O-linesmen. They may carry five RBs-- (four minimum if they hold onto Jones). With an increased priority on the run game, and more receiving threats in the RB, and TE rooms, carrying seven WRs becomes a luxury they won't want to afford. My prediction stands at: Diggs Davis Crowder McKenzie Shakir Kumerow

Why/how would Hodgins beat out Kumerow? Kumerow plays ST, and has gotten targets on offense. What reason would anyone have to believe that Hodgins (who has already missed practice time with an injury) would be above Kumerow on the depth chart? We really haven't heard anything significant about Hodgins since he was complimented (along with Davis) for knowing the playbook in his rookie training camp. IMO, it's more likely that Hodgins is competing for a spot on the PS.

Ms. Pegula, If you happen to be laying in bed reading TBD, I hope this "Get well soon" meme with a kitten on it helps you feel better. Sincerely, Rocky Landing

Does this mean he's going to eventually end up a Bill?

There are a fair amount of articles regarding Crowder as a smart fantasy pick. (Here's one: https://www.profootballnetwork.com/jamison-crowder-dynasty-profile-2022/ ). In my opinion, if Crowder gets the kind of role Beasley had, he'll have a career high year.

I agree. My first thought upon the Austin signing was that he would just be return competition for Shakir, and would not have much of a chance to make the 53. I was also thinking that carrying seven WRs, as we did last season, was a luxury the Bills wouldn't take. But, i think it may be more likely now, and I think Austin has a decent shot at the 53.

Let's see Greg Rousseau make this list by midseason.

It'll be written on his name tag at the Target he'll be working at. (I kid. Hope he surprises us.)

Probably a little late in the conversation to just say, "yeah, what I should have said is the owners of Walmart are buying the Broncos..." and moved on.

Honestly, considering your OP, when I clicked on this thing, I was expecting to hear something compelling. I didn't. This episode of this guy's podcast gets a blue ribbon for whining. "Patriots* fans never punched down on their division rivals..." Oh really...? Go to any Pats* forum right now, and see what they're saying about the Jets. Patriots* fans have been some of the most arrogant, obnoxious, and insulting fans in the history of sports. I know lots of them. I have quite a bit of family in Boston. My brother lives in Boston. My wife is from Boston. I have co-workers, and friends who are Pats* fans. I have endured the gloating, and smarmy posturing from these fair-weather fools for 20 years. And this jackass has the audacity to tell us to "let it go...?" THEY still can't let it go. If you know Pats* fans, you will still hear the refrain of "we have six Lombardis... how many do the Bills have?" and "13 seconds," and "Bills can never win the Big Game," and "the Von Miller contract is going to destroy your future..." blah, blah, blah. For the most part, the only Pats* fans who understand that their reign of dominance is over (and not just on hiatus) are the ones who have left. (Like my father-in-law. He is now a Rams fan). I will "stop punching down" when the Patriots* are sitting at the bottom of the division, daydreaming about Tom Brady* over a stale Sam Adams Winter brew. Maybe.

https://www.theonion.com/deshaun-watson-rethinks-life-choices-after-finding-self-1849004731

I know many Patriots* fans. My wife is from Boston-- her entire family are Pats* fans-- and I have several co-workers also from New England, who are Pats* fans. Right now, they all have one thing in common: They all love to talk about the Patriots*' legacy, and how the Bills' legacy will never stack up to theirs. And this may, in fact, be true, but I don't envy them. Bills fans learned long ago not to dwell on the past, and to look towards the future. Pats* fans have little to look forward to, and so they crow about their six Super Bowls. They (pretend to) love to point out that "the Bills have never won a Super Bowl," as if that's news to us. They (pretend to) love to remind us of Von Miller's age, as if our #1 defense revolves around a player who has yet to play a snap in a Bills uni. They (pretend to) love to bring up "13 seconds," as if that defines us. But, look at them. They do still have a 70-year-old GOAT HC-- but for how long? They just lost their long-time OC, and a legendary O-line coach. If Belichick* left tomorrow, their coaching staff would be a shambles. And so would their team. They arguably got worse over the offseason, and all three of their division rivals inarguably got better. Every season that "Patriots* Legacy" is going to be further, and further in the rear-view mirror, and all of that gloating on their past achievements is going to start tasting more and more bitter. At some point, Patriots* fans are going to have to come to grips with their own mediocrity, and a future of irrelevancy behind a Bills team that looks to be dominant for years to come.

I've read a lot of annoying things in PFF, but this may be the worst. Ignoring the article's rankings, and just reading the author's comments is enough. He completely ignores such concepts as team building and culture. It appears that he doesn't consider anything a head coach does beyond game-day on the sideline. The only thing he seems to regard before last season is coaches reputations. I frankly think he knows almost nothing about many of these teams, and coaches beyond the stat sheets in front of his face. And seriously-- Kliff Kingsbury #4...? And I'll just go ahead and be a homer here in defense of our Sean McDermott: "...not always getting expected results out of his offenses based on talent level." Perhaps this author doesn't know the Buffalo Bills of 2017 (and their first playoff appearance in nearly two decades) , captained by Tyrod Taylor throwing to fat-ass Kelvin Benjimin, and Mills, and Ducasse protecting the right side of the O-line?

They're from Arkansas. Not a huge difference.

I know it's a brave, new world, and all... but I have a hard time imagining Crowder, McKenzie, Austin or Shakir being rotated through the practice squad. I would add that if they have an eye on Shakir as P/KR (and many assume they do), Austin could be a valuable vet presence during TC in that regard.

I basically disagree with this. But, I do think that this signing shows that the Bills have obviously not decided on a P/KR, and that they plan on a serious competition for the position. I also think Austin is being a bit underrated in this thread. He certainly never lived up to his first round hype, but he did have occasional play-making ability, and great speed. And as far as being a vet-presence, at least in the return game, he has more experience as a P/KR than anyone else on the team. Crowder is second. But, if they have plans for Crowder in the slot, maybe he isn't as involved in the P/KR competition? Could Austin's vet experience in the return game be a help to someone like Khalil Shakir? I would think so.

I'm parking in the pink lot. My 12-year-old Bruno and I will be doing some sort of low-key tailgate, but I'm not sure what. I'm assuming we're going to be surrounded by Rams fans. And we're going to bring our bikes-- looks like a long walk to the stadium, and they're supposed to have bike racks all over the place. And yeah, the cost is stupid.

He's teaching him the chicken dance.