He keeps getting sacked 40+ times a year I'm not sure he finishes the year. Lost in his great season last year was the 9 INTs, 11 Fumbles, and 48 sacks vs. 6 INTs, 5 fumbles, and 14 sacks for Allen. With Allen winning last year i do think the voters are looking beyond the volume passing numbers at who produced a better offense, and that players role in that offense. When you have a 1st-team all-pro WR, it can hurt your story as much as a back getting almost 2000 yards. When you can't run the ball you lose games - They were 3-6 in games where they had under 100 rushing yards.
I also feel like you need to win your division to be MVP, and i'm not sure i see it with that defense. They also beat a LOT of trash teams last year in a 9-8 season: Carolina, Vegas, NYG, Browns x2, Titans, Cowboys (rush @ QB).