mjt328

The only games I'm somewhat confident the Bills will win are the Browns and Jets. From what I've witnessed this season, they don't stand much chance against the Bucs, Eagles or Patriots. I'll add the Bengals to that list, assuming Joe Burrow returns (and it's definitely looking that way). The Steelers and Texans are equally inconsistent with some strengths and some big flaws. I think it's fair to say we split them. So unless the Bills make a 180 degree turnaround in pretty much everything they are doing, I think this season is headed towards an epic collapse. My guess is a 9-8 finish with no playoffs.

Everyone keeps forgetting about the Ravens. That team is going to storm back into the picture over the next few weeks. Yes, I believe the Chiefs have a great shot at going to the Super Bowl again... even as a Wild Card. The Colts, Patriots and Broncos are all paper tigers at the top of their divisions. Will finish with great records, and get eliminated early. No, I don't think we make the playoffs.

I've been gradually moving in this direction for years. In many ways, football can be an addiction. You deserve a lot of credit for being able to properly put it into the backseat of your life. A few years ago, my wife pointed out that my mood with the rest of the family was being negatively impacted based on how the Bills played that week. Since that point, I've learned that if games aren't going well... I can just turn them off and do something else. I don't need to plan my Sunday around it. It's honestly been a work in progress, but I have gotten much better. Last year I skipped watching the Super Bowl, and totally ignored anything related to football until around free agency. Of course a championship would still mean a lot to me. But I've pretty much accepted the fact that it probably won't happen. And if it doesn't, I'm blessed in lots of other ways. Once Josh Allen's career is over, my plan is to call it quits on the sport altogether. Whether we ultimately reach the promised land or not. As someone who loyally supported and watched every game during the 17-year drought, I've got zero interest in going through that again.

People keep saying this. But you would be surprised how quickly things can spiral out of control. When the season started, I would say the fire McDermott/Beane crowd was less than 10-20% of Bills fans. Very much in the minority. Now after the Dolphins loss, I would say it's at least 50%, if not well above that. Pretty much everybody I know is done with them. And as I write this, the team still has a 6-3 record, is still in the driver's seat for a playoff spot, and still (mathematically at least) in contention for both the division title and top seed in the conference. There still seems to be some optimism lingering that Buffalo will turn things around. But I'm not sure we see a repeat of the 2023 season. The way this team has been playing on both sides of the ball all year long, I could easily see them dropping another 3-6 games. The Bucs, Patriots and Eagles should be heavily favored at this point. The Bengals could very likely have Joe Burrow back. The Steelers and Texans are toss-ups. I'm not sure where the idea came from that McDermott and Beane are completely untouchable. No owner was going to fire their GM or HC with the record they have amassed over the last 5-6 years. But if they miss the playoffs, 90% of the fans in Buffalo and the voices in the media will be screaming for a change in leadership. That pressure could be too hard for the Pegulas to ignore.

Too many NFL front offices and coaching staffs are too clever for their own good. Building a team around someone as talented as Josh Allen should be pretty easy. Don't overthink it. I still remember when I was younger, watching the crazy hype for Michael Vick when he came out of college. He was supposed to revolutionize the game. And he probably had the talent to do that. But instead, the Falcons spent years trying to turn him into a West Coast offense pocket passer like Steve Young. The belief at the time was that QBs couldn't possibly succeed unless you forced them into that mold. Looking at Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, etc. today, I often wonder what would have happened if Atlanta just used common sense and built around his strengths.

To me, Shakir is a hard one to judge. How can he do anything when he's not even running routes downfield? My question is how players like Terrel Bernard and Taylor Rapp became huge liabilities. Where has Greg Rousseau been all season? What happened to Christian Benford and Taron Johnson?

We don't need the next Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, Ben Johnson, etc. All we need is a normal offensive coordinator with a normal system, who just understands the basics of NFL football. Someone who understands both the pass game and run game are important. Someone who understands how to design passing concepts for all levels of the field. Someone who understands how to use the skills of the players on the roster. Someone who understands how to watch game film and prepare for an opponent's tendencies. Someone who understands how to attack and adjust to simple defensive schemes during a game. It's just baffling to me that three years ago, we had an OC who didn't know how to design a simple screen pass. Now we have a guy who can't design anything but screen passes (to everyone but the running back). We used to have a guy who had every WR running deep outs and crossers on every play, never giving the QB legitimate underneath options. Now half of our passes are caught at the line of scrimmage, and converting anything 6 yards downfield seems difficult. It's just baffling to me that we sign Curtis Samuel to a big contract, and our OC basically uses him like Isaiah McKenzie. We sign an Khalil Shakir to an extension, and the OC doesn't seem to have anything in the playbook for him deeper than five yards. And for some reason, he keeps thinking end-around plays work... even though they net about 4 yards max, and go backwards more than half the time. I think we have a special end-around designed for every WR and TE on the roster. It's just baffling to me that we go into games against teams that blitz all the time, and are unprepared for the blitz. We don't seem to adjust our gameplans to the strengths and weaknesses of an opponent, and often try attacking the opposite. It doesn't even seem to matter who we are playing against. We just do what we do, and hope it works. Most of all, it's just baffling to me that we are the only team in the NFL who has Josh Allen... possibly the best QB in the NFL, and one of the most physically gifted QBs in NFL history... and our staff has decided the best plan of attack is to surround him with Tight Ends and blocking WRs, become the highest rushing percentage team in the league and make almost all of his throws check-downs.

My feeling is that Keon Coleman is not the only player giving a less than full effort this season. It's astounding to me how many vets on this team are doing nothing, and look completely disinterested in how the team is playing.

The Bills are not bi-polar. They are mediocre team with a one-dimensional offense, and undersized defense that (surprise) can't stay healthy. They had a couple fortunate turnovers in the first month, which allowed them to get some wins they didn't really deserve. Their best game of the season was against the Chiefs, and was an aberration to what we've seen the other 8 games of the year. The only people expecting them to finish significantly above .500 are basing their feelings on the last few years, and hoping this entire season has just been a very lengthy slump. It's much more likely they go on another losing streak and fall out of playoff contention. Even Josh Allen and other longtime vets on the roster look mentally checked-out on the sidelines. This thing isn't just going to suddenly turn around. Despite all the metrics and advanced stats, the eye test is still the most accurate way to judge a team. There were people screaming that something was wrong with the passing game back in mid-September, and they were pretty much ignored because the numbers still looked good on paper.

When Joe Brady first came around, his scheme was the polar opposite of Ken Dorsey. This took some time for defenses to adjust. Now that we are two years in, coordinators are realizing that Brady's entire passing playbook is screens, swing passes and checkdowns. They have also figured out that our outside WRs are incapable of consistently separating down the field. So not only are we mostly uninterested in attacking downfield on early downs, we are also horrible at completing passes over 5-6 yards when we are in 3rd-Long situations. My theory is that both of these problems... along with a coaching staff pushing him to avoid turnovers... has pretty much wrecked Josh Allen's ability to properly react on the football field. He's caught between his weird place of being hesitant to pull the trigger quick enough, and also knowing he's got no choice but to force passes into coverage. His trust in the receivers is gone. His brain isn't sure where he can go with the ball. Not to mention, when defenses are focused on stopping the run and defending short passes - there is much less space for a QB to scramble and run around. It's almost created a natural spy for the defense.

Joe Brady waits until the most important spots of a close game. Then instead of going with what works 80-90% of the time, he pulls out the most ridiculous trick play in his arsenal. Almost every time, it appears the offense hasn't actually practiced it either. So not only does it fail... it fails spectacularly, and becomes one of the key momentum swings for the other team. If you are going to try fooling someone off a tush push, the best thing to do is just sneak a different gap than what you usually show on tape. Keeping a defense off balance doesn't need to be rocket science.

Ken Dorsey didn't care about developing a run game, and almost all of his pass routes were downfield. It was explosive at times, but also inefficient and turned the ball over way too much. Joe Brady has a creative run game. But his entire pass scheme is about screens and quick 2-yard throws. So if anything causes them to get behind the sticks, the offense is screwed and stalls-out. Why can't we just hire an OC that understands how to run a balanced NFL offense, instead of some gimmicky nonsense?

His ability to get away from the pass rush has been significantly less this year. That part is very clear. The one time he did it today, he looked absolutely gassed for the rest of the drive. The question is whether Josh has truly lost a step physically, or if our inability to get the ball downfield is also allowing teams to keep QB spies closer to the line of scrimmage, taking away that part of his game. Either way, the fact is that Josh Allen CANNOT be Superman forever. We all knew this years ago. The player he's been most compared to (Cam Newton) started regressing around 29-30 years old. The others (John Elway and Ben Roethlisberger) were forced to transition into being less mobile as their careers went into their early 30s.

Why do people bring up past seasons, like they are a reason to hold out hope? 2023 was a failed season. Just like all the years before, and the season after. The Brandon Beane/Sean McDermott regime has been a failure, and it’s time to give someone else a chance. Tick…tick…tick. That’s the sound of Josh Allen’s prime years fading away. And we are scared to part with a group with a ceiling is winning the Divisional Round less than half the time.

4-5 years is the standard longevity of a top NFL roster. To get more requires excellent drafting from the GM and a coaching staff with the ability to adjust/evolve. The Bills have been an elite QB carrying a mediocre franchise. And now that he’s almost 30, he can’t do it anymore.

Forget the #1 seed, and probably the division. Best thing we could do is tank the rest of the year, and hope we finish in reach of a top WR.

Nobody open downfield. Nobody open downfield. Nobody open downfield. And our GM is nitpicking between a 2026 and 2027 draft pick.

Hard to believe how bad we struggled against him. He’s absolutely terrible. Possibly the worst starting QB in the NFL.

I thought this was pretty funny. Surprised they didn't include anything from the Music City Miracle or 13 Seconds though. Could have stuffed Patrick Mahomes in the barrel.

People are getting WAY too caught up in the W/L record. The chances are still very good that both will make the playoffs. The Ravens have 5 losses, which seems like a lot at this time of the year. But their upcoming schedule is very favorable, the AFC North is absolute trash, and they still play the Steelers twice. Win both (which is very possible) and they are back in 1st Place. Look at their remaining games, and tell me they can't finish 8-1 or 7-2 with Lamar Jackson back and healthy. The Chiefs have a much tougher schedule, and they are slowly falling behind in the AFC West race. But they do play the Broncos two more times, so the path to catching up is still there. At the very least, they probably need to lose 3-4 more games in order to completely miss the playoffs. They are still too good for that to happen. Smart money is probably on them landing a Wild Card. In my opinion, the Bills best route would be getting the #1 seed... then hoping the #4 seed Ravens end up playing the #5 seed Chiefs in the Wild Card. One eliminates the other. Then root for one of the wild cards to knock-off the Colts or Broncos. That way it's possible we get the bye and avoid both teams completely.

The most important part of the #1 seed is the bye. It gives us an extra week for injured players to rest and return to action. One less game for players to possibly get injured. Plus the Bills are undefeated (9-0) under Sean McDermott coming out of the bye. Then you have the homefield advantage. The Bills are 7-1 in the postseason at home under McDermott, and 0-5 on the road. On top of that, the other elite QBs in the AFC are more vulnerable. Patrick Mahomes has a 3-2 playoff record on the road, and Lamar Jackson is 1-2. Not that a team should need any extra motivation in the playoffs, but maybe closing out this stadium with an AFC Championship victory would also give us an added boost. I totally understand the reasoning behind wanting to avoid the Chiefs and Ravens. One seems to have us in a mental block. The other is a physical mismatch for our defense. But the other advantages are just too big a deal to pass up.

It's probably a mix of everything. Hard to pick out a couple All-22 plays from the game, and form an opinion based solely on that. In this clip, you will notice that Kansas City's DT (looks like Chris Jones) gets some pretty quick pressure against O'Cyrus Torrence. Right in the center of the pocket. Josh Allen did have time after stepping around the missed block, but there is a good chance he lost track of the WR progressions while doing that. The TE was wide open in front of him, so he just took it. My biggest problem is that when it's 3rd-Long, and Josh is scrambling around the pocket buying time... those are the big plays when a WR needs to get open. It's not happening enough.

Agree with all of this. I would also add that metrics/stats are generally an average of what the team has done throughout the season. Playing teams like the Jets, Dolphins and Panthers are going to boost those figures significantly. When I'm evaluating a team, I want to see how the passing game performs against a strong pass rush and lock-down secondary. I want to see how the rushing game can move a really stout front 7. I want to see how much pressure we can generate against a really good O-Line group. I want to see how whether our corners are winning battles against the top receivers. When the playoffs roll around, it becomes much more difficult to hide your weak spots. There are also no do-overs for a bad game. You either show up or go home.

My analysis is referring to Beane as a GM overall. Not just the 2025 trade deadline. He started with a reputation of being aggressive and bold. But over the last many years (with the team on the edge of Super Bowl contention), he's become overly timid with upgrading the roster. In free agency. In the draft. In trades. While teams in our position should absolutely be making "all-in" moves, Beane is always hedging his bets towards the future. Some think it's smart. Many Bills fans believe it's a huge mistake. There were many on this board who wanted to see us attempt a trade-up in the 2024 draft for a WR. Make a blockbuster move and go up for Malik Nabers, or a smaller move for Brian Thomas Jr. But nope. We kept hearing how expensive it was for those oh-so valuable draft picks. It wasn't even something on the table for Beane. First round picks are just too valuable. Of course when our pick rolled around, Beane was so impressed with the top WR on his board that he traded back and just took whoever was left over. Yay for Keon Coleman. The reason we don't have much cap space is because Beane prefers to fill the roster with 3-4 solid/mediocre players (Josh Palmer, Curtis Samuel, Elijah Moore) instead of making an aggressive trade for a really top-level guy.

Many NFL GMs seriously overvalue draft picks, and Brandon Beane unfortunately falls among that group. If you listen to Beane's pressers after the draft, he will readily admit how difficult it is to obtain a high-level impact prospect (even in the 1st Round) when picking in the mid/late 20s. Pretty much everyone we pick 4th Round and later is either depth, special teams, or iffy at even making the roster. But when it comes time to possibly trade one of those draft picks for a proven veteran... he holds onto them like they are gold. Think about the hot names we heard over the last couple days. Jaylen Waddle was the 6th overall pick in 2021. Chris Olave was the 11th overall pick in 2022. We never had the slightest shot to draft either one where we were picking. Both have been fairly productive in the NFL. Yet only a few short years into their careers, Beane (and many other GMs) scoff at the idea of spending a 1st to obtain someone of that caliber. They would rather take their chances with picking someone like Keon Coleman - who less than 20 months after getting drafted wouldn't fetch a Day 2 selection. As a rebuilding team, it was smart for the Jets to do what they did today. It gives them more ammo to go after a potential franchise QB in the upcoming draft, which is the starting point for turning things around. But honestly, even with all those picks... what are the odds they land another CB or DT close to the talent level of Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams? The Rams figured this out several seasons ago, and traded their way to a Super Bowl championship. The Eagles are notoriously willing to part with draft picks to stack an already loaded roster, and it's paid off huge for them. Teams that are close need to be buyers, because they can obtain elite/proven players in exchange for picks that probably won't come close to playing at that level. It's absolute madness that more teams haven't figured this out yet.