mjt328

Derrick Henry is the nightmare RB matchup for Sean McDermott's defense. Joe Burrow is the nightmare QB matchup for McDermott's defense. To have a prayer against Burrow, the corners need to play press/man coverage and the D-Line needs to get quick pressure. Our defense has historically been mostly zone with an inconsistent pass rush.

My problem with Beane is mostly with talent evaluation. His method for building a roster seems more like putting a checkmark in a box, than actually targeting specific prospects that he is confident will be successful in the NFL. On draft day, he goes in with his top 3 position needs and a plan to address them with his top 3 picks. Just following the board that he and the scout team assembled. You never hear anything about them being truly convicted that a player will be great, or them being willing to make a significant trade to target a player they covet.

Fans are frustrated, because it seems like these kinds of things always happen to us. Not because Slay or Ingram are anything special. Anquan Boldin retired a week after signing with us. Vontae Davis retired at halftime. Antonio Brown forced Pittsburgh to back out of a trade to the Bills (although we probably dodged a bullet there). Roger Goodell pushed Michael Vick to the Eagles instead of us, back when we really needed a QB. A few years ago, JD McKissic agreed to a deal with Beane... then changed his mind at the last minute and went back to the Redskins, after all the other potential RB signings had already found homes. This forced us to use a draft pick on a running back (fortunately it worked out and we picked James Cook). This offseason, two of our top free agents (Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi) were signed to fill holes on the D-Line. And right after the ink was dry, the NFL suddenly announces that both would miss the first quarter of the season with drug suspensions. Why couldn't they have announced it before free agency, so teams had a heads-up? If Beane had been the one tampering, the Bills would have lost a draft pick. Because it's the Eagles, nothing will happen.

I've stated that I'm ready to move-on from Brandon Beane. But I'm not going to blame him for things that are out of his control. As revealed by many sources, it's against NFL rules for him to contact Slay or his agent before putting through the waiver wire claim. He had no way to know Slay would rather retire than play for an 8-4 perennial Super Bowl contender... outside of tampering and taking the risk of getting caught/punished by the league. We did things by the book, and end up losing a player (Ingram) for following the correct procedure. Meanwhile, (based on the information that has come out) the Eagles likely did tamper with Slay. They will never get officially caught or punished, and will almost certainly end up with him on their roster before the year's end anyway.

Dalton Kincaid somehow gets a mysterious knee injury while standing on the sidelines waiting for his hamstring to heal. AJ Epenesa apparently injured his foot in practice yesterday. Why are half our injuries this season happening outside of the actual games?

This year isn't going to be about the opponent we face. None of the teams in the AFC are elite juggernauts. I could see us beating any of them. But they all have something that can exploit us. Which means I could also see us losing to any of them. In my opinion, the key to this postseason is going to be consistency. It will require 4 straight quality performances against top level competition. Our best bet is getting all phases up to at least a solid/decent level, so that it's not a glaring weakness leading to our downfall. Then hopefully Josh Allen can break out of his slump and be the element that pushes us over the top. #1 - We can't go into the postseason relying completely on James Cook sparking the offense. At least one of our opponents is going to succeed in stopping the run, and at some point our WRs will need to get open and we will need to move the ball through the air. The offense needs back Dalton Kincaid and Josh Palmer fully healthy... and Brandin Cooks needs to become someone the defense needs to account for downfield (similar to what Amari Cooper provided last season). #2 - We can't go into the postseason with our rushing defense constantly getting run over. At some point we will inevitably face someone like Jonathan Taylor or Derrick Henry. There needs to be a realization that our normal plan on defense isn't working against the run. Less nickel and more 4-3. More Shaq Thompson and less Terrel Bernard. Doing this led to our best rush defense all season against Pittsburgh. Keep it going. #3 - We can't go into the postseason without getting pressure on the QB. This has been our weak point each of the last 5 years. Even if Patrick Mahomes misses, there are still passers who will exploit us if we give him too much time in the pocket. Joey Bosa and Ed Oliver need to return healthy, and some other guys need to step up.

Not nonsense. Those three games are significant. - Bills get AFC champion Chiefs. Patriots get Raiders, arguably the worst team in the league. - Bills get Texans, best defense in NFL. Patriots get Titans, only team probably worse than above. - Bills get Super Bowl champion Eagles. Patriots get 2-win Giants with rookie QB and interim HC. Also: - Bills got the Ravens at full strength. Patriots will get version with Lamar Jackson on one-leg. - Bills get Bengals at full strength. Patriots got them without Joe Burrow or Jamar Chase. The Patriots best win of the season was against us... probably the most lopsided penalty fest in the NFL this year. And they barely escaped with a 3-point victory. We will see about the rematch. It may be a longshot for us to come back and win the division. But if we win that game, the margin will be pretty close. Yes, the Bills blew a cake schedule this season. No excuses. But the Patriots have a HISTORICALLY weak slate of opponents. If the AFC East comes down to Week 18 or a tiebreaker, nobody can say these differences didn't play a factor.

This is somewhat true. The Bills-Patriots have exactly three games different on their schedules. Bills got Texans, Chiefs, Eagles. Patriots got Titans, Raiders, Giants. That's a pretty significant difference in opponent quality. Not to mention, they got the Bengals with both Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase out. We get to play them with both on the field. We also got the Ravens before all the injuries hit. At the end of the day, there are no excuses. The Patriots are going to win the AFC East, because (as you said) we blew it against some very inferior teams. Not because we had a more difficult schedule. Take care of business against the Falcons and Dolphins, and things look a lot different for the division. The Bills seem to be sleepwalking through the season, while the Patriots are focused and playing hard against every single opponent. The real question is... what happens in a month when the real bullets start flying? Everybody knows there is a different intensity that level when the postseason hits.

The Patriots schedule has been ridiculously easy. Raiders, Dolphins, Panthers, Saints, Titans, Browns, Falcons, Jets, Giants. They also got the Bengals the week they were without Jamar Chase, and before Joe Burrow came back. We have struggled against teams we should have beaten, so no excuses... they deserve to win the AFC East. But it's hard not to believe the Patriots are headed for a big wakeup call in January. It will be interesting to see how our second game goes, along with the Ravens (if they get healthy down the stretch).

Both conferences are a total mess. But mostly the AFC. I have no idea what team would be considered the true favorite. The Broncos are currently sitting at the top. They have a good coach, a decent young QB and strong defense. No glaring weaknesses. But also nothing that would strike fear into your heart if forced to play them in the playoffs. They have barely scraped out wins against the worst of the worst teams in the NFL, and appear very beatable. Then you have the Patriots, Jaguars and Colts. All seem like well-coached, young teams with solid rosters who improved in the offseason. But it's hard not to get Vikings vibes. I can't help but see these teams as Wild Card contenders with extremely favorable schedules. Not teams who should be pushing for the #1 Seed. The Colts collapse already looks like it started around Week 9-10. The Chargers are middle of the pack everywhere, with a QB just outside of the elite group. Not scary at all. Houston has a tremendous defense and is just now making a late push. But the offense is very mediocre, and doesn't look like a unit that can string together a deep postseason run. Then of course you have the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens and Bengals. Huge favorites back in August. And even now, it's usually the elite QBs that find a way to rise above the pack in the postseason. But all three teams have severely flawed rosters outside of quarterback, have really bad injury issues to overcome, or are in a huge hole and may not make the playoffs at all.

Brady's ability to gameplan and adjust are very very very bad. He went into the Houston game with no plan to neutralize their pass rush, and then refused to make changes when they were clearly smoking us. Ironically, it was very bad luck for Pittsburgh to face us after such a poor showing with our pass blocking. Brady had more than a week to hear the relentless criticism about his blocking schemes. And without both starting OTs, he was left with no choice but to run James Cook into the ground yesterday. In other words, our spectacular failure on Thursday Night forced Brady into a strategy for success. My guess is that Brady will attempt to run the same exact gameplan against Cincinnati next week... for no other reason than it appears to be working. Will he tailor our offensive attack to target the Bengals weak points? Obviously he won't, because he never does. Will the Bengals (even as pathetic as their defense is) be prepared after seeing us run the same play 50 times on film? Probably.

The identity is pretty obvious. They are primarily a running team. Passing is mostly screens and check-downs. When that doesn't work, hope Josh Allen can save their behinds.

Using the eye-test, I'm still very skeptical about how this offense operates. They were struggling badly until the sack/fumble/touchdown completely changed the trajectory of the game. Still have zero evidence this team can pass the ball downfield when needed. And it's been that way almost the entire season. Joe Brady looks great when he can just call the same play 40+ times and the other team can't stop it. Not so great when his favorite 5 plays aren't working, and he actually needs to adjust mid-game. There are going to be teams upcoming who do a good job shutting down James Cook, and in those games we are going to struggle badly to score. Has the defense turned the corner? I'm a little more optimistic that we accidentally stumbled into a better run defense when Terrell Bernard got injured. My fear is that Sean McDermott is too stubborn to keep his captain on the bench, even though Shaq Thompson is clearly the better option.

Brady was criticized all week for his pathetic adjustments to Houston’s pass rush. The gameplan had to be what we saw, or he might have been the scapegoat firing tomorrow. The pass offense was still pretty bad all game, and I still question his ability to adjust mid-game or find solutions when the rushing attack isn’t working.

Most of us are worried about this season more than the future, and Thompson is the better option at MLB. I agree that next year we should look at moving Bernard outside to replace Milano. Probably his best fit all along.

Been saying for years, this defense is too undersized. And with NFL offenses evolving, it’s only getting worse. Two players that have become a huge liability for us are Terrell Bernard and Taron Johnson. It should not be surprising that our best defensive game of the season came with a lot of 4-3, and Shaq Thompson at MLB.

Lamar is clearly still hurt. But they are going to win that division anyway. And there is a good chance he will be mostly healthy by playoff time. Ravens could be dangerous in January. The Chiefs big problem is the tie-breakers. The teams in front have all beaten them, which is like being an extra game behind. One more loss and I can’t see them making it. Winning Sunday puts us in a good place for a wild card slot. But the Steelers need it bad too.

It did in the past.

With the criticism for his protection schemes last week, plus us probably playing without both tackles... it's very likely that Joe Brady makes some adjustments for this week's game (2-3 quarters too late). Expect the RBs and TEs to help chip, and a lot of quick passes to get called. The question is, what happens downfield when the RBs and TEs are stuck blocking? Less options for the QB to throw to. Plus the Steelers will probably be ready for those quick screens we love to call. It's probably a given the offense will struggle badly again. Just hope that Josh isn't taking a physical beating as bad as last week.

My guess is that he's mostly talking about field position. When the offense turns the ball over or fails to move, it makes it harder for the defense to stop a scoring drive. When the defense gets turnovers and stops the opponent deep, the offense doesn't have to go as far to score. The fear amongst many fans is that he's also talking about time of possession, and limiting possessions. In other words, the offense shouldn't score too quick, because it puts the defense back on the field without much rest. Which if course is asinine and foolish when you have a Hall of Fame QB, and your plan is to play ball-control.

Previous seasons, our biggest problems seemed to be sloppy/undisciplined play. We went through long stretches with lots of turnovers, penalties, dropped passes, etc. But at the end of the day, we were still a fairly talented roster. And there were plenty of times throughout the season where our potential was shining through the rough patches. This year seems different. The issues seem much deeper. Outside of the Chiefs game, the Bills have looked really rough all season long. Even back when the team was 4-0, everything looked ugly. Tackling hasn't improved in the slightest. Even games we are scoring 30-40 points, it just isn't smooth or synced up. My fear that it's not a good team in a slump... but rather a team that just isn't very good anymore.

I'm not sure what Brandin Cooks has left in the tank. But at least we are trying to do something... which is better than the nothing we did at the trade deadline.

Exactly why I focus more on what I'm watching (the eye test), than stats and metrics. The passing offense is clearly struggling.

Watching other teams has given me the opposite thought. To me, this entire season is a HUGE missed opportunity. Seeing teams like the Indianapolis Colts (with Daniel Jones of all people) and the New England Patriots (with two former WRs on our team) feature passing offenses that are WAY more consistent than ours (with MVP Josh Allen)... it's just sad and depressing. For the last 5 years, we've been struggling to get past the other elite QBs of the AFC. Mahomes, Jackson and Burrow. And now that injuries/age have finally taken down our top competition in the conference, we completely fell off as well. Not only are we not going to get the #1 seed, but we will be lucky to get a Wild Card spot. I keep hearing that we still have a team capable of going on a run, since no other teams are dominant. But I'm just not seeing it. The Bills aren't flawed in one area. They have probably the worst rushing defense in the entire NFL, and a below average secondary. Their passing game has been an absolute mess most of the season, and even Josh Allen looks like a deer in the headlights. And none of their coaches have the ability to outsmart the guy on the other sideline. In fact, the only part of the team we can usually count on is the run game.

I'm thinking the Bills need a #1 WR, two edge rushers, two linebackers, a free safety, and new coordinators/schemes on both sides of the ball. And that's just to get back into the conversation for the AFC East title. This team needs a rebuild, and needs new people in charge of doing it. If the Pegulas stand pat (which most expect them to do), the list of opponents is going to be irrelevant.