hondo in seattle

Brad's strengths and weaknesses aside, I think we need to remember that the #3 QB is no longer a lesser version of the #2 QB. The #3 is a special roster spot - someone who gets to go out on the field even though they are not counted against your active total. So you want someone versatile in the #3 QB spot who can contribute in ways other than QB. My opinion is that Smith filled that role nicely, He ran the wildcat, returned some kicks and played WR for us in 2011. Most guys around the league who filled the #3 QB roster spot on Sunday contributed far less. In fact, most did nothing at all. I doubt if Smith will ever be the #2. If one of the top two quarterbacks gets seriously hurt, the Bills will find a street FA to be the new #2 and Smith will keep his spot as the #3. I believe from things Chan and Buddy have said, they're really looking at the #3 as a special position.

According to a new rule last year, the 3rd string QB will be "active" but not count against the team's active limit of 45 players. 3rd string QBs usually don't see the field. If they do, you're usually doomed anyway. So why have an active 3rd string QB who is just a QB (like Thigpen) when you can have a 3rd string QB who can actually do other things? Without using up an active roster roster spot, we saw Brad Smith run the wildcat and play WR for us last year. He can also return kicks and, in a desperate need, run the offense as a conventional QB. We're getting a lot of use out of a position (active 3rd string QB) that doesn't normally contribute anything at all. While most teams play with 45 active players on Sunday (plus the 3rd string QB who will not play a single down), the Bills have 46 players (counting Smith) who will actually get on the field. By putting a multi-talented player like Brad Smith in the #3 position, the Bills effectively have an extra active player every week. That's why his job is safe.

Yikes! It's waaaay too early for me to think about the 2013 draft! Even as an offseason topic, I can't wrap my head around it.

Joique Bell was the only guy I was disappointed to see go, only because he had been so productive in college (2,000 yards his senior year as I recall). And even Bell has done nothing since the Bills cut him. It will be very interesting to see who goes in the last couple cuts.

Fitz was hurt. Exactly how seriously is hard to know. I can only speculate that however serious the injury, Chan thought a hurt Fitz was better than a healthy Thigpen. That doesn't speak highly of our backup. Here was how PFT covered the story when it first broke... http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/05/fitzpatrick-johnson-elaborate-on-quarterbacks-rib-injury/ Last month, Bills receiver David Nelson said that quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick cracked ribs against the Redskins. Coincidentally, the team’s — and Fitzpatrick’s — slide started thereafter. At 5-2 after shutting out the Redskins, the Bills lost seven straight. The quarterback’s passer rating plunged from 116.4 against the Redskins to 51.9, 46.6, and 45.8 in the next three games. But Fitzpatrick showed up only once all season on the injury report. He was listed as probable with a chest injury for the Week Nine game against the Jets, the first game after the game against the Redskins. It sounds like it was more than a little worse than that. “I mean, it’s something I don’t really want to get into much,” Fitzpatrick told the Toronto Sun. “The only thing I’ll say is guys in the NFL play hurt. Every game guys are hurt, especially at the end of the year. And that’s just part of the game, it’s part of the business, and something you have to do.” Receiver Stevie Johnson was slightly more talkative on the topic. “I know personally, in the huddle, the worst it got — to my knowledge — is he barely could say a full play under one breath,” Johnson told the Sun. “It started right at the halfway mark [of the season]. I mean, everybody in the league is injured or is hurt in some way. When it’s your quarterback who’s got to throw, and it’s ribs — I mean, it’s tough. That’s the last thing I heard was it was ribs, or what-not.” “Ribs” never showed up on the injury report. And if the “ribs” were cracked, it surely wasn’t a one-week situation. That said, the fact that teams like the Saints (or perhaps a decade ago the Bills) were using cash as the carrot to knock guys out of games, I’ve now got a different attitude about hiding injuries. Yes, it gives rise to inside information that could be exploited by guys with two ears and one eyebrow. But if players are going to be corrupted from within the locker room, it’s no longer quite as important to worry about potential outside influences.

I don't care if Fitz can be an "upper echelon" QB. I only care that the offense (+ST) scores more the defense (+ST) gives up. The Bills were averaging 28 points per game last season before everything went to crap. So the theory is already proven: When they are healthy, Fitz and the boys can score a lot of points. If the Bills can just average 24 ppg this year, we'll win a lot of games because I expect this defense to hold opponents to an average of less than 20.

The O Line makes me nervous because we didn't get a lot of sacks thanks to Chan's short-pass offense and Fitz's quick release. When we needed to run the ball, we couldn't. We were last in the league in 3nd-and-2 and 3rd-and-3 conversions. 28th, I think, in 3rd-and-1. Great offensive lines push the defensive lines back. We didn't do that. We created holes for FredEx with finesse and good play calling. BUT... I'm really hopeful that Cordy Glenn provides us with an upgrade. You are probably right about FredEx. But sometimes injuries are more serious than we fans know and last longer than we expect. I'm not trying to be a Negative Nancy because I do expect the Bills to battle for a playoff spot this year. But I also understand the folks who have some doubts and take the approach that they'll believe it when they see it.

Why are you confusing the issue with facts???? It's a team game. The Bills averaged 28 points a game for the first 7 contests of the season. Then the wheels came off the wagon due to all sorts of reasons beyond Fitz's 'noodle arm.' 28 ppg compares favorably to the Kelly led K-Gun Super Bowl Bills. I am NOT saying Fitz is as good as Kelly. I am saying that this offense can be productive enough to win with Fitz at the helm.

I am 52 and wondering if I will EVER see the Bills win a Super Bowl. The chances of the Bills winning a SB are 1 in 32. If I live 32 more years, probability says I will witness exactly one Bills SB victory. Then again, the Bills have defied probabilities before. The Bills probability of winning one of those four Super Bowls in the 90s was in 15 out of 16. The chances of losing all four was just 1 in 16 but they did it. I'm getting nervous as mortality rears its ugly head.

It really has a been a great offseason. Big free agent signings. The elevation of a new & better DC. Seemingly, a good draft. And Freddy, Fitz, Stevie, Kyle Williams, Shawn Merriman, McGee, Wood, etc. got healthy!

The Bills were last in the league on 3rd-and-2 and 3rd-and-3. With or without the wildcat, my recollection is that we were pathetic at 3rd-and-short. I know lots of people like to point out how high our yard-per-carry were or how little we were sacked as evidence of a good offensive line. But an O Line ought to be able to create some push. Ours didn't in obvious run situations. The sack and rush metrics are a result of Chan's play-calling and Fitz's fast release. The poor 3rd-and-short conversion rate, though, exposes just how poor our O Line was last year. I think Chan used the wildcat in obvious run situations to give us an extra blocker to compensate for our weak O Line. But it just didn't work out that well. Maybe will a full off-season and Coach Lee to help perfect it, we'll see a better wildcat this year.

I think Chan will use Freddy on some series and CJ on others. Down-and-distance may also dictate a change. I think Chan likes that opponents will have to defend these backs differently. There backs are not clones of each other and last year we saw the play-calling changed when CJ was in the game. Preparing for the Bills, opposing DC's will have to breakdown what the Bills tend to do when CJ is in the game versus Freddy. In other words, they'll spend less time focusing just on what FredEx likes to do or what plays we like to run with him. Defensive players will have to keep track who's in the backfield. The more weapons we force the opponent to prepare for, the less effectively he can prepare for any one of them. The more confusion and uncertainty we create, the more likely we are to gain positive yards. For all these reasons, I really see Chan using a lot more of CJ than we saw at the beginning of last year. Yet, after all that, I still think he'll give FredEx more carries to allow him to establish a rhythm.

While I'm optimistic about the Bills this year and expect them to be in the playoff hunt: yeah, there is some doubt! * The Bills haven't made the playoffs since Wooly Mammoths were getting their feet stuck in the La Brea tar pits. * LT is a question mark. In fact, the O Line in general makes me nervous. * Fitz looked great for the first 7 games then bad thereafter. Was it really because of the rib injury? Will he regain his form? * FredEx is 31 and coming off a major injury. Will he be as effective this year? * The defensive front four look impressive on paper. But will they gel and live up to their potential? * Wanny used to be a solid DC but that was some years ago. Has the game passed him by? Will he be successful in Buffalo? * Will Shep step up at MLB? * Will our young corners play as well as we hope? I've been predicting 10 wins this season and hoping for more. But there's always doubt until a team proves it can win.

The NFL is a business but running a county is business too. Both sides will give reasons why the other side ought to ante up more. It's all part of the negotiation process.

How about these three X Factors - all starting with "F": 1. Fitz. Will he play like the first 7 games of last year? Will Coach Lee improve his mechanics? 2. FredEx. Is he fully recovered? Will he regain his form? Can he put together a Pro Bowl season? 3. Front Four. Will our new D Line live up to expectations? Will they both stop the run and harrass quarterbacks?

Fair enough. Personally, I think 8 games is a big enough sample to prove the theory. Not that I think the Bills will average 28 ppg this year. I do expect maybe 22-24 ppg from this offense and a big improvement on the defense.

I doubt if Fitz will ever be talked about as an elite QB in the same breath as Brady, Brees and Rogers. But I do believe he can lead an elite offense that strikes fear into the hearts of defenders. During the first 8 games of last season, the Bills averaged 28 points per game. Compare this to the K Gun Bills offense of the Kelly, Thurman, Reed Super Bowl years... 1990 26 points per game 1991 29 points 1992 24 points 1993 21 points Whatever you think of Fitz, the Bills were really rolling for half a season. The impact of the injuries to Wood, FredEx, Fitz's ribs, the WR Corps, and so on is undeniable.

Yep. I live in Seattle and know that Tacoma is not the size of Rochester but the point is valid. Seattle has all of Washington to itself. Denver has all of Colorado. Green Bay may be a smaller city than Buffalo but they enjoy the support of the whole state. Buffalo shares NY with 2 other NFL clubs in the more populous part of the state. If we don't regionalize into Canada, we're in trouble.

According to WGR: Thurman also talked about the running back position and remarked how the presence of both Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller reminds him of when he and Kenneth Davis were partners in the backfield. As were many Bills fans, Thomas was impressed with Spiller’s performance last season after Jackson went down with a season ending injury in week 11.

Dr. House, thanks for the link. I don't usually learn much from the national media types who seem to know a lot about the NFL in general but little about the Bills specifically. However, I thought Bucky's analysis, clips and screen grabs about how Chan uses CJ and FredEx differently were interesting and illuminating.

It seems like Chan likes players who bring unique gifts. Brad Smith isn't a Fitz clone, for example - his skill set allows Chan the Mad Scientist to play with different ideas. CJ and FredEx have very different running styles and are used somewhat differently thus making the Bills hard to prepare for. Etc. But maybe you are right in that TJ (and Easley) give Chan all the speed he needs outside making Clowney and his quick feet (not to mention his tweeted AIDS tests) expendable. It remains to be seen if the Bills have a valid #2 but we do seem to have a lot of depth. Some good WRs won't make this roster.

My argument may not be overwhelmingly compelling but it goes something like this. When Nix/Gailey cut Lee Evans I wondered if they didn't value speedy outside guys either because of Chan's offensive scheme or Fitz's weakish arm or the fact the Bills QBs didn't have a lot of time to throw deep. I now think differently. We've drafted a couple speedy receivers in higher rounds over the last few drafts, clearly needing someone to stretch the defense. It seems to me Chan does indeed value outside speed and Clowney has it. As I recall, he runs the 40 in something like 4.3. And btw, I think Hagan was the late season desperation pickup. We didn't sign Clowney until January to compete for a roster spot this season. Hagan won't beat out Jones for #2 but could be a competent back-up (nothing more or less). Clowney won't be a starter either but his elite speed will have situational value. I don't know Hagan very well but he seems to me just another guy. Clowney is a speedster and brings something special to the table.

I'm a Chris Kelsay fan for the same reason I'm a Vince Young fan - he wears a Bills uniform. I hope Chris proves all his detractors wrong this year.

I picked Clowney to stay instead of Hagan. Otherwise the same. Didn't we keep 5 WRs (plus Brad Smith and a couple on PS) last year? Considering the 4 WR sets we run - and the talent we have at WR - it seems like we ought to keep 6 + Brad.

Thanks for joining in... I appreciate your point of view. However, while Tim certainly didn't morph into Sully and wasn't entirely negative, he was more Negative Nancy than usual in his Florio interview. Tim's predicting 8-8 or 9-7... says playoffs are possible but doesn't seem optimistic.