hondo in seattle

Agreed. And I like picks too because they're young and cheap but every pick is a roll of the dice, and those dice don't always land the way Beane wants them to. Think Elam, just to give one example. Joey is, at this point, a proven commodity. Well, we don't know if he can stay healthy, but we do know he can play when he is. Pay the man.

I screwed up my rituals on the days of both our losses. Yesterday, however, I did everything right to appease the gods. I wore my Bills socks, Zubaz sweatpants, and #17 jersey. My pretty Filipina wife, who knows virtually nothing about football, wore Bills shorts and a Bills shirt. My husky wore a Bills bandana. At kickoff, I was sitting in my favorite chair, eating Buffalo wings. Today, to give thanks, I'm wearing a Bills shirt as I'm about to leave the house for a VA appointment.

I think if you look at man-games lost to injuries over the past few years, our numbers wouldn't stand out. But if you could measure the number of games lost by injured key defensive starters, we'd lead the league.

Coaching is the reason we won in every phase of the game. Brady called a good offensive game and his squad executed. The defense was seriously banged up and still got stops and a pick against a more talented and (mostly) healthy Andy Reid/Pat Mahomes offense.

Yep.

Brady schemed and called a good game today. He mixed the pass and run well, mostly called the right plays at the right time, and I liked the no-huddle after big chunk plays. That seemed to catch KC off guard.

Only 3 incompletions and one was a drop.

Our OL is elite at run blocking. I do think, however, that Kromer has a lot to do with that. We don't have a bunch of road graders on the OL that knock people down. We don't get tremendous push on 3rd and 4th and one. But Brady and Kromer scheme up ways to make holes in other situations, and the OL executes well. I don't think the OL has been elite at passpro so far this year. I'm not sure what advanced metrics say but I see Josh often getting pressured quickly.

I agree our WR corps is not SB quality. Neither are most of our defenders. Then again, Trent Dilfer was not a SB-quality QB, and yet he won a SB. Anything can happen in the NFL and I'm still hanging on to hope while not expecting much.

Considering how banged up our D is, I think McD is going to want the offense to eat up some TOP as per usual. So I expect to see a lot of Cook against the Chiefs' average run D. I also expect Brady to dial up an underneath pass game relying heavily on Kincaid and, especially, Shakir. With Palmer out, I don't expect Brady to suddenly figure out how to scheme a downfield passing attack and am, sadly, not expecting much from our wideouts. I wouldn't be surprised to see Josh run more this game - as in RPOs as well as scrambles. I don't really expect a big game from anyone on defense though I hope I'm wrong. Bosa with multiple sacks, maybe, hopefully?

I agree TOs were a big part of the story last year. I think fumbles mostly even out over time so your regressing-to-the-mean argument does resonate. But I do think some offenses, and some players, are more likely to turn the ball over than others. I think Brady probably preaches ball security more than some other OCs and generally runs a low-risk offense. But here's the other thing: the Bills are 3rd in the NFL in offense despite having a subpar receiving corps that neuters the talents - to some degree - of our MVP QB. Please don't think I'm a Brady apologist: he drives me crazy. I don't believe he's particularly creative and is below average at scheming a downfield passing game. But he hasn't been dealt a great hand, either. For me, the perfect solution is to retain Brady but hire a talented, innovative passing game coordinator to help Brady get the passing game going. And, of course, for Beane to give him better guys to throw to.

Zero, you're usually a good conversationalist with balanced takes. I appreciate you stopping by to provide a Chiefs perspective and educate us on what's happening in the Chiefs Kingdom. But I am truly puzzled why you thought this post was a good idea. In any case, I wish you a horrible Sunday but a great rest of your life.

I'm probably one of the people you've labeled as a hater. But I don't hate Gabe. I don't think many Bills fans do. We just see his flaws. We remember the drops, the many times Josh was picked when throwing to Gabe, Josh's low passer rating when targeting Gabe, opposing DBs saying Gabe can only run 3 routes, long stretches of the season when Gabe was invisible... All that stuff. We also remember the KC game and the 98-yard TD reception against the Steelers. And we know he's an outstanding blocker and a great teammate. And if he suits up, we'll cheer him on and hope he's a hero. But, given his history, we don't have high expectations that he'll be a consistent contributor.

The thing about ditching Brady for McDaniel, I'd be afraid we'd be throwing the baby out with the bath water. I don't like Brady's downfield passing game. But I do like how many points he's been averaging as an OC, and how few turnovers. Those two things, especially when put together, add up to Ws more than passing yards do.

Jack, Joe, Jim, and Josh are my 4 favorite Bills QBs of all time. 3 out of the4 J-Boys this weekend!

I don't think McDaniel has a leadership bone in his body. I do think he's good at schemes. If he'd take a job as passing game coordinator working for Brady, I'm in.

It's an ambivalent thing. It was great to be good enough to make four consecutive Super Bowls, but it sucked to lose them all. There's a mixture of pride and pain. If the Chiefs equal the record, I won't care except that it means the Bills didn't make it this year. But I don't really expect the Bills to make the SB this year. What the Chiefs do or don't do - outside of Bills-Chiefs matchups - doesn't really matter to me.

Thanks for posting but... When I was in high school, I created a formula using point and yardage differentials to predict games (outright winners, not against the spread) with an accuracy a little north of 70%. About the same as this more complicated model. Knowledgeable fans not using any statistical model can do about the same. Another good system for ranking teams is ELO, which has the Bills ranked #5. As already mentioned, DVOA has us as 9th. I just think the sample sizes are too small for these statistical models to work very well. A chess Grand Master's ELO rank is determined by hundreds of chess matches. The Bills current ELO (or DVOA, Page Rank, or whatever) score is determined by 7 idiosyncratic games. Additionally, injuries, adjustments in scheme, bad bounces, inexplicable ref calls, and all that stuff will create weekly variability in football. In chess, for example, you don't lose your rook to injury or get your knight back from suspension. And yet, even in chess, sometimes the player with the lower ELO score wins.

I remember it all... - The limited route tree/bad route running - The drops - The times Gabe zigged and Allen threw a zag - The stretches of the season he'd disappear - The KC game - The other big plays - The hard work & team-first attitude - The blocking Maybe I'm wrong but I don't see his mixed skillset making a profound difference in a Brady offense that doesn't seem to know how to use wideouts.

No doubt Gabe Davis had some great plays (e.g. Pittsburgh) and great games (e.g. KC). He also disappeared for chunks of the season. I loved him when he was turned on. P.S. I just rewatched every Davis catch in the KC game... So much fun seeing Josh throwing downfield. Why can't Brady scheme like that?

I don't recall Davis doing anything consistently: separate, catch, run the correct route...

If my kids' lives depended on my getting this pick right, I'd reluctantly have to bet on the Chiefs. But they don't, and I can't stomach the thought of the Chiefs beating us at home, so I don't want to think about it before I have to. I'm going to say our coordinators both scheme and call their best games of the year, and the players step up for the challenge as Highmark goes wild... Bills 31 Chiefs 17

My choice wasn't listed: Must win in our quest to finish atop the AFCE! Beyond that, I'd like to see that our run game and defensive performance were no single-game mirages. I'd also like to see an effective downfield passing attack. If we get all that, I'll be happy Bills mafioso!

I don't think anyone is raging. I think, in a way, we're making fun of ourselves for wanting an elite receiver instead of a PS DT despite knowing the realities of the situation. My own hopeful fantasy runs something like this... Years ago, billionaire Terry Pegula hired a group of world-class scientists who secretly cloned Eric Moulds, Andre Reed, and Elbert "Golden Wheels" Dubenion. The original Moulds, Reed, and Dubenion, with the coordination of cutting-edge strength and conditioning specialists, have been training their clones to play NFL football. And any day now I'm going to see that the Bills have signed them as FAs. That dream was met today with the cold-water-in-my-face reality of Akingbesote.

I shouldn't have said it like that, and I do agree that McD and Brady want a balanced offense. And while Brady is producing less yards/game than his predecessors, he's also putting up more points and fewer TOs. I do give him some credit. Still, I believe Brady has a problem scheming a downfield passing game. Other than the 4th quarter of the Ravens game, Brady can't seem to dial one up when he needs to. I'd really love to see the Bills hire a good passing game coordinator this offseason to help Brady out.