hondo in seattle

Prior to last season, I guessed we had a 10% chance of going on to win the Super Bowl. Considering there are 32 teams, this is about 3x better than the average odds. I'd say this season we again have a 10% chance. We'll be one of several teams in the hunt. I believe we got nominally better at OL, WR, RB, and safety. I worry about the health of White, Miller, Poyer, and Hyde. I also worry about the loss of Edmunds. I'm curious how the D will be without Frazier. To say he brought no value, I believe, is wrong. But McD might be more creative this season with the roster he has, and may prove to be the better play-caller. I'm really curious about Dorsey. The OL isn't great but it does seem improved. And he's got more weapons to work with. Will he put it all together?

The Bills are not a power-running team, as you say. But it's great to have powerful backs on a passing team going up against nickel and dime defenses. I'm not sure how good this OL will be, but I do think it's realistic to expect it to be better than v.2022. Beane said that Hines didn't have time to learn the offense last year. He seemed to be suggesting that we'll see more of him in the backfield this year. With Hines' catching-out-of-the-backfield skills, we ought to.

Hmm. I'm not seeing a significant difference other than size. Maybe my estimation of Motor is higher than yours rather than my evaluation of Murray being lower. But I see you've got some folks agreeing with you so I'll keep an open mind and relook at Murray more closely. I would agree that Harris is "bigger, stronger and faster." At least he seemed to be all those things in his games against the Bills.

Schoen is right, but this is hardly news. I don't pay much attention to draft grades. There's no such thing as a "sure thing" in the NFL draft. To me, each guy is a mathematical possibility. The chances of a 1st rounder making an impact on the team is greater than a 7th rounder but you never really know until years go by. I just hope for the best and cheer our guys on.

I voted Davis. But I think the targets to folks not named Diggs or Davis will go up this year. Sherfield and Kincaid will both be important pieces of this offense. But who's Hardy? Did one of the Hardy Boys/Boyz join the Bills?

Not to be Debbie Downer but the video was not super impressive. With maybe one exception, I feel like Motor had the vision, power, and speed to make any of those runs. On the other hand, I think the new RB room of Harris, Murray, Cook, and Hines is the best group of RBs we've had since Shady was the headliner. And I like the variety.

But what are the odds of Murray and Harris being injured at the same time?

Well, I wasn't expecting a RB to be one of the two.

If Taiwan is gone, then we might carry four actual running backs with Hines being mostly special teams?

OL is better... We signed two guards in free agency, both of which are probably better than Saffold. Then we drafted two more guards. Safety is better is Poyer and Hyde are healthy this year since they weren't last. Plus we added Rapp. The receiver group is better with the free agents and Kincaid.

I was pretty happy with the RB room already. This signing is a surprise. But you can never have too much talent - though only 53 make the team.

You might be young if... you don't remember when Mini Max Anderson swallowed his tongue.

My offensive guesses (pun intended)... Harris will start over Cook. Cook will primarily be the third-down back. Kincaid won't start but we will see him as the move TE, which will take away playing time from Shakir (slot receiver goes out, 2nd TE comes in). I like both our backup wideouts (Harty and Sherfield) and expect both to get playing time. Maybe a little less Gabe, then. I'd love to see Hines more involved, particularly in the passing game. Torrance doesn't start the season as a starter. But he ends the season as one. This OL has to be better than last year's (said while praying on my knees).

I agree that when you tally who we added and lost, we're better. IMHO, we're worse at LB but we're better at WR, RB, and OL. But beside looking at the additions and subtractions, we also have to look at which players will get better this year and which will get worse. Improvement and regression are factors every season but are terribly hard to predict. Will Poyer and Hyde be worse due to age? While Brown or Davis get better? Hard to know. The other wildcard, of course, is injuries. We're screwed if Allen suffers a season-ending injury. If Miller, White, Poyer, and Hyde all get/stay healthy and play at peak form, our D will have a very good year.

I partially agree. The best players should be on the field, and our best 11 only includes one LB. But that doesn't mean we run a 4-1-6. Running a 4-3-4 gives us 3 LBs close to the line of scrimmage to make tackles. In other words, it gives the offense one more second-level guy they need to successfully block on running plays (compared to our base 4-2). I've wondered about this, too: since Rapp is reportedly a solid tackler, will we ever have him in the game with both Poyer and Hyde as some kind of safety/LB hybrid? McD doesn't have an Edmunds-type guy to replace Edmunds. But he does have some tools - guys with interesting skill sets. You hate for your D to be predictable, and I think McD has the flexibility to mix it up a bit.

We're so used to seeing the pairing of Milano and Edmunds that we're wondering who Edmunds' replacement is. I'm not sure it's that simple. I think there will be more variety this season. We might see more 4-3 without a true replacement for Edmunds. I don't think 4-3 will become our base defense which will remain 4-2 but I do wonder if we see it more often. We also might see a rotation of bodies. Maybe Klein in on first and running downs. Maybe Dodson or one of the other faster/coverage guys in on other downs. It'll be interesting for sure.

I had no big expectations this draft but there were some who thought Beane wanted to upgrade the RB position. Yet no RB was taken. And there were some who thought Beane might be more aggressive about picking up a Mike or two. Yet he only picks one LB and he's Will sized. I think the draft tells us that Beane's frustrations matched the frustrations of the fan base. GMs and fans aren't always aligned but, in this case, it seems we were. Fans clamored for offensive help and got it. Fans were frustrated with drops and - judging by the two sure-handed picks - it seems Beane was, too. It also seems Beane was - finally - frustrated with the porous OL and got a couple of guys with good track records as bodyguards.

I personally don't think the Bills OLine looks even 'good' let alone 'terrific.' But I do think it looks better than last year!

Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but I think Beane just told us what frustrated him the most about last year's roster. With just six picks, he drafted two guards who didn't give up a sack last season. And two receivers who only dropped three passes in the past two years.

You may be right. Most 3rd rounders don't amount to much, anyway. But one line you wrote, to me, is meaningless: "Every scouting report..." What you mean is: "Every amateur scouting report..." I forget which one, but one draft guru a couple of years ago mentioned that he watches 3 or more game tapes of each of the top 100 prospects and then 1-2 games of all the rest. I imagine that's a lot of work for one guy so I'm not knocking it. But draft 'gurus' like him may have only watched one of Williams' games. How accurate will their assessments be? But now imagine an entire NFL scouting department with a team of year-round professionals studying film, talking to coaches, interviewing players and their teammates, and in some cases, even hiring private detectives. Who's going to make the better assessment? When the media talks about a player falling in the draft, what they really mean typically is that the amateurs in the media overrated someone and the professionals didn't think he was worth a high pick. The amateurs and pros often disagree. Personally, the fact that Wiliams was rated a 4th-6th round pick by some amateur talent evaluators in the media means nothing to me. FWIW, some mocks had Williams in the 3rd round:

Someone described him as a "bodyguard". That's what we need - someone to keep Josh vertical and healthy!

If the Bills have a bunch of guys with similar grades available, I think they'll choose either the (1) MLB - if he's a rangy coverage type, or (2) OL. But if there's a player available with a much higher grade than everyone else, other positions come into play (though, not QB of course).

If you view Kincaid as Knox's backup, it's a bad pick. If you view Kincaid as Knox's twin in a conventional 12 alignment, it's a bad pick. But if you view Kincaid as his own unique thing - tight sometimes but more often split him out like a jumbo-version of Beasley - it's a good pick. I'm hoping Haplo is right and the Bills get creative.

Hmm... I might have been slightly off.

True-ish. But our pass catchers also include Gabe, Shakir, Kincaid, Sherfield, Harty, Cook, Hines... Overall, it's a pretty good group with some speed, quickness, size, and route prowess. Dorsey has plenty to work with.