BillsPhan

The last 10 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks are: 2010-11: Packers, Aaron Rogers, 1st Round Pick. SB MVP. 2009-10: Saints, Drew Brees, 2nd Round Pick. SB MVP 2008-09: Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger, 1st Round Pick. 2007-08: Giants, Eli Manning, #1 Overall Pick, SB MVP 2006-07: Colts, Peyton Manning, #1 Overall Pick, SB MVP 2005-06: Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger, 1st Round Pick. 2004-05: Patriots, Tom Brady, 6th Round Pick - And oh by the way, the luckiest draft pick in NFL history! 2003-04: Patriots, Tom Brady, SB MVP 2002-03: Buccaneers, Brad Johnson, 9th Round Pick 2001-02: Patriots, Tom Brady, SB MVP Now, can we detect a pattern here? Tom Brady does not count as a normal type of "draft statistic." The reason is obvious. There has never been an NFL QB in history to come out of the 6th round as good as he, and I think we can all logically agree that there never will be one again. And yet, even though he was an after-thought late round pick to back up Bledsoe, the Pats did not win their first SB until Brady was the starter....right?? Now, after Brady and his 3 SB wins, you have another 6 starting QB's that won the other 7 SB's these past 10 years. All but one of those 6 were 1st or 2nd round draft picks, with Brad Johnson, the old pro who was drafted in the 9th round originally by the Vikes, guiding the Bucs offense while their defense won the game over the Raiders in '02. So, looking at the last 10 SB winning QB's, do you really think Fitzy can join that group and lead the Bills to a SB win himself? Even Brad Johnson had a better more accurate arm, and he played on a team that had one of the best defenses in NFL history. No, I think the Bills still need to draft their franchise QB before they can ever expect to win a SB. Either that or Wanny and G. Edwards have to build a Tampa - Ravens type defense that can basically win the game all by itself.

1) How do you know Gabbert's overrated? The whole world thought Bradford was overrated last year at this time, and he seemed to turn out pretty damn well for a rookie QB on what was supposed to be a horrible team. 2) As far as what the #3 pick in the draft getting paid "ridiculous money", those days are over. They may hold the draft in April with an expired collective bargaining agreement, but there won't be one rookie signed to any contracts until after there is a new collective bargaining agreement signed sealed and delivered. And that won't happen, unless there is finally a common sense rookie salary cap in place. So the Bills can trade up with Carolina and choose Gabbert #1 overall if they want, but he will never see a contract like the past 5 years' of top picks have signed. 3) A prayer for Von Miller seems like a big waste of God's time. Cam Newton or Gabbert should be the choice at #3 for Buddy, in my humble opinion. 4) Yes, the Bills do need to start drafting like the Steelers. And as soon as they find a QB in the first round to equal or better Big Ben, you can then start the comparisons. Because for all the high value picks and lower round jewels and just plain SMART choices the Steelers have made in the draft over the past 10 years, they did not win their 5th SB (and first since 1979-80), until Big Ben was behind center. Nothing happens until someone sells something. We've all heard that old saying in business, right? Well, in the NFL about 95% of the time, Super Bowl championships don't happen until somebody sells the owner on drafting or trading for a great quarterback! Everyone thinks the Bills should continue drafting for defense and value and OL and finally find that elusive tight end and trade down for more picks and on and on and on. Build for the future. Hope for that magic SB season in 2 or 4 or 6 years down the line. Well, I think that every team in the NFL has the chance to win a SB championship every single season, with free agency and the salary cap. And that belief will be even stonger after the new collective bargaining agreement is reached, and with Goodell's common sense and intelligence guiding the players and teams, the NFL should enter the best years of it's existence. So all of that said, added to the fact I only want to see the Buffalo Bills win one lousy SB during my lifetime, the sooner the Bills acquire that franchise type Pro Bowl caliber QB, then they too will fall into that 95 percentile chance of actually having a SB winning season depending on how much longer Buddy and his team take to finish the rebuilding around him!

You know that both Gabbert and Newton are "over-valued." What if you're wrong? What if Newton goes #10 and Gabbert goes #18 to other teams, and then they both end up being Pro Bowl level QB's within a year or two? Would you still will think the Bills would have been "smart" not to draft one of them at #3? And you want the Bills to be "like the Pats this time"? No problem. All they have to do is draft a QB in the 6th round that no team thinks will ever be more then a back up in the NFL, and then watch him amaze the world by becoming perhaps one of the top 2 or 3 QB's in history, leading the Bills to 3 SB Championships over the next 8 years. That's all. And oh by the way, before you come back and start rattling off all the great draft choices the Pats made to build the team around Brady, please remember my main point: New England did not win a SB until Brady was the starting QB. 90% of the time, when a team has a SB winning season, they already have their Pro Bowl level QB behind center, and leading them that entire season. QB first, build the team around him second.

Even if Fairley is there, Nix should take Newton or Gabbert with the 3rd overall pick. But you are right about the "Modrak effect", I almost fell off my chair when the commissioner said "Donte Whitner" instead of Ngata in 2006. I'll never forget Levy saying after the pick he wanted to start rebuilding "the middle" of the Bills defense. I said at the time, that's funny, I always thought the strong safety lined up on one side or the other, not "in the middle."??

I know the athletes are world class and entertain us. I know they are worth the money because the demand is obviously there. But I still don't understand why they have a "union" and every 5 years or so they think the millions of dollars they earn is never enough. Let's face facts here. If the NFL were to go out of business tomorrow, the players would suffer more of a reality shock without it then the owners would. Does anyone think there is one single owner whose quality of life would suffer if they had to fold up their stadium tents? I certainly don't. And some of the players may even not have to work the rest of their lives if they've been in the league long enough and been smart with their money. But while I think most of the players should have some savings which will last for 5 maybe even 10 years, they will still only be in their late 30's and then have to find real jobs the rest of their lives. Why on earth would they ever want to risk that, when all they have to do is shut up and continue playing football and earning from hundreds of thousands up to multi millions of dollars per season?

TSW Big Board ROUND ONE 1. --Marcel Dareus DT Alabama Bills should take Dareus over Bowers as a better all round fit and because he’ll be on the field for 3 downs, 2. --Nick Fairley DT Auburn A tad overrated, better in a 4-3, not a nose tackle per se, but surely a consensus top 5 for Bills, imagine Fairley, Troup, Williams in a rotation at DT 3. --Patrick Peterson CB LSU The Best CB in several seasons…most include Revis in that assessment, Listed as Safety at some sites but makes the better CB, great size for our division’s WR’s, KR as well –better than Dez Bryant’s numbers, able to track and break with the routes of the best WRs in the NFL (esp the AFC East). He also possesses outstanding ball-skills. He combines soft hands with a high-level football IQ to make a devastating break on the ball. Run support tackling is a flaw 4. --Robert Quinn OLB North Carolina Huge risk-reward pick that could change Bills’ fortunes, a humble, chiseled powerhouse, the sky is the limit—not sure if this chance is what Nix-Gailey would take 5. --Cameron Jordan DE California Jordan is versatile enough to play anywhere on the line and is a good player-- size, quickness, motor are all there, virtually unblockable with varied pass rush moves 6. --Da’Quan Bowers DE Clemson One year of great production slips him to here on the Nix-O-Meter. One season wonders drop, especially after Maybin. Sources confirmed that DaQuan Bowers/DE/Clemson underwent minor knee surgery in January to repair an injured meniscus: www.draftinsider.net 7. --Cam Newton QB Auburn Raw, physical, great presence, a weapon with through the roof talent, especially with Spiller-Jackson-Parrish-Evans-Johnson. Media raved about his arm strength, smoothness, accuracy, and timing, as well as eloquence and humor. Things you need in Buffalo. 8. --Von Miller LB Texas A & M Doesn’t have Ideal size, but rare explosion. 4 tackles, 2 for loss at the Senior Bowl under Bills coaching. 27.5 sacks in two seasons. A film rat, ““I’ve watched Clay Matthews. I like the way Ray Lewis plays. I like the way John Abraham plays,” said Miller. “I had a coach that coached Derrick Thomas, when he was in college and he said I played similar to him.” “Von Miller could fit in any defense,” Gailey said, calling him “explosive”. 9. --Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska Amukamara might be a better Safety than a CB, but we could use either so it’s a moot point. Lack of speed (likely slower than 4.4, more like 4.5) -- proposing the idea that he might be an ideal candidate to make the move to free safety at the next level. well-rounded, solid prospect but lacks the elite athletic abilities of typical shutdown corners. He may eventually need to move to safet 10. --Martez Wilson ILB Illinois Physical, athletic, would make ideal complement to Poz, more scheme flexible than anyone we have at LB---ILB, Sam, Blitzer 11. --A.J. Green WR Georgia Will be a true #1 receiver, will beat Crabtree’s numbers in Year One (55 catches 741 yards and six TD’s.), Ranked #1 on some Big Boards but drops to here on a Bills Board as less relative impact to the team we have 12. --Aldon Smith OLB Missouri Pierre-Paul-like but actually had more production. 13. --Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin #1 OT looked the best to me –better than Sherrod--at the Senior Bowl; likely the missing link for the O-Line? Could be best RT in the NFL or one of best LT’s in time. 14. --Julio Jones WR Alabama Greg Gabriel National Football Post prefers him over Green, and reliable route runner with great size, but he lacks the extra gear necessary to be a serious threat down the field. Additionally, his hands are somewhat inconsistent, especially compared to Green. He’s been banged up lots; could he ever get through 19 games? 15. --Jimmy Smith CB Colorado This is Smith’s pre-combine spot; should drift into top 10 afterwards 16. --Brandon Harris CB Miami U Comparisons to Darrelle Revis have been made, but I’m skeptical. Still Top 15 player 17. --Derrick Sherrod OT Mississippi State Was above average at the Senior Bowl; I liked Carimi better because his weakness can be remediated at the gym 18. --Mark Ingram RB Alabama Want a Heisman-winner at a loaded skill position? 19. --Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue Comparisons to Chris Long of the Rams, could dominate in 2-3 years 20. --Jonathan Baldwin WR Pittsburgh Wannstedt-scouted and signed; compared to Dwayne Bowe’s skills, would be red zone threat 21. --Anthony Castonzo OT Boston College Above average RT prospect, but hasn’t done well against speedy guys like Moch and Friday 22. --Justin Houston OLB Georgia Better acceleration and sideline to sideline speed than Poz, just as productive in college, right-sized 23. --J.J. Watt DE Wisconsin I see Watt as Kerrigan with less upside. Added Mayock, “He’s a beast. He’s a first-round pick.” Mayock says he just finished watching tape on Watt, and ranked the onetime Central Michigan tight end as the premier 3-4 defensive end in the 2011 class. Cal’s Cameron Jordan and Ohio State’s Cameron Heyward are second and third, respectively. 24. --Kyle Rudolph TE Notre Dame Jason Witten type, injury concerns drop him to here, tight end who only caught 3 TDs last year. I would have moved Newton up to the number one spot I would like to see the Bills draft, but unlike others, I followed your instructions and move him up from 10 to 7.

My thoughts are quite simple. If Can Newton or Blaine Gabbert Gabbert are available at the number 3 pick, the Bills should draft one of them. If they both are there, then I like Newton better, but I would be just as happy with Gabbert.

This take is deja' vu all over again. And I am getting tired of it. Last year I hoped the Bills drafted Clausen or Tebow with their first pick, and Tebow looks like a keeper. Clausen has not proven to be a bust by any means yet, either. But there were you and the majority last year, saying; "Oh no, next year's QB class is the one! Jake Locker was the big name this time last year, but you guys had every one else listed as being the ones to "wait one more year" for. Now the Bills have the number 3 overall pick, almost guaranteeing them of being in the position to draft one of the two best QB's from the class that all of you bragged about last year at this time! And instead of being excited about that, here you are advising the Bills to wait until NEXT YEAR'S draft, because THAT ONE is the one to wait for. The Bills have needs all over the place, and I can't argue that fact. As long as Nix drafts a defensive player that we've actually heard of from a major college with the number 3 pick, he cannot go wrong. (Just keep in mind how obsessed Modrak's scouting team seems to be with drafting players from small schools lower on the experts' boards, or players from large schools, who are way way down on experts boards.) But we all know that both Newton and Gabbert are going to be drafted in the top 10 this season, which means two NFL teams will be taking the risk and paying those kids the money to become their franchise QB's. Why on earth are so many fans convinced that the Buffalo Bills, a franchise that has now waited 15 years since their last franchise QB retired, should not be one of those two teams??? Newton or Gabbert with the number 3 pick in the draft folks. If Nix does not do it, my humble opinion is that he will be blowing a golden opportunity to secure his franchise QB, while still having the rest of the draft to shore up his many many other needs.

This post was not a waste - it's actually a good thread that brings up a great ESPN simulcast show. I really like Mike and Mike, they are both well spoken, have a great "back and forth" and both have good senses of humor. As for the national perception of the Bills....well they were a "solid well deserved" 4-12-0 last year, are they supposed to be gushing over the Bills or something? And finally, as usual for me, the Guru Duo of Kiper/McShay are certainly in the majority about the Bills needs in this draft, but that just makes them wrong with the majority in my humble opinion. Newton or Gabbert are the only players Nix and the gang should be targeting with the #3.

Based on what my opinion is, that the Bills should draft a QB with the number 3 pick in the draft, I don't care how Alualu worked out for the Jags. In fact, I don't even know who that guy is, nor do I care who that guy is. However, I do know that the Jags also do not have a franchise QB on their team as we speak, so they should be trying to draft one this year too! #12 - Momma Peccoraro - GENIUS FUNNY!

I am trying to make one single point, and that is that the Bills should draft QB at #3. End of story. One single draft choice during the entire 3 day circus the NFL makes out of the draft, now beginning on a Thursday night in prime time at the end of this April. As for all the other problems and needs and lack of talent on the team, I don't care. History has proven that when a franchise hits rock bottom, they go on to a becoming a championship team (Super Bowl winner), after they acquire their franchise QB, and hardly ever before that. How can anyone argue this fact? Let's see, in the past 25 years of Super Bowls, we can point to Hostetller and Rypien who were two of the 3 different QB's to beat the Bills ironically, Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson, as the only 4 non-franchise type QB's who played for the winning team in Super Bowls. That's 4 out of 25 winning SB quarterbacks. So I think I would like the Bills to follow the formula that worked 21 out of 25 times, and secure that freakin' great QB before Ralph Wilson dies and we quite possibly lose the Buffalo Bills forever. Joe Flacco has not taken the Ravens to a SB Championship yet, but he sure is doing a great job of working on it, and he was not even a top 10 first round choice at QB. Certainly nobody in Baltimore would be whining right now if the Ravens had taken him number 3 that year. My point? You cannot wait until you have the number one pick the year that obvious number one best player is the QB - but you can use a top 5 pick on the best QB on your board and that kid should be able to grow into your franchise guy!

You're fine with it? A DT from Cal, who most experts would regard as a reach at #3, and you would be fine with it? Well I'm not surprised. Newton and Gabbert may both be sitting there available while Nix may choose this kid or some other defensive player - and then sit there and watch both those QB's immediately get drafted within the top 10, and you and Nix and most others out here will be just so happy they "solidified" their defensive line. Sorry, but I want to see the BUFFALO Bills (not the Los Angeles or the Toronto Bills) WIN a Super Bowl. The quickest way they will get that done is to draft or trade for their franchise QB now, and keep their fingers crossed that Ralph Wilson stays alive long enough for that guy to lead the team to their first Lombardi Trophy. The Bills have the 3rd pick in the next 6 rounds following that first one. (At least I think they do, unless they have some trades from last year pending.) At least they should have the 3rd pick in most of the other 6 rounds, to solidify that lousy front 7 and the improving but still lacking O-line. Newton or Gabbert need to be the #3 pick in this year's draft, in my humble opinion.

1) Williams 2) Merriman ( if healthy - big IF) 3) Stroud 4) Florence 5) McGee ( If he can stay healthy) 6) Byrd 7) McKelvin 8) Whitner 9) Moats (Could move up this motley list quickly next year with a good 2nd camp!) 10) Edwards (If healthy) 11)Poz (Has to gain strength to get off blocks and learn to take better tackling angles) 12)Troup (With a good 2nd camp, could also move up the list like fellow rookie Moats) 13)Davis 14)Kelsay 15)Ayodele 16)Torbor

I'm tired of Whitner being a better tweeter then tackler or ball hawk as a former top 10 draft pick. Now that the Bills have hired Wanny, if Donte remains in Buffalo, we should finally find out just how good or average he really is.

I will respond to each question: 1) Like you, no, I have no blind trust that Nix will send my hope for the best QB available on his board up to the podium as the number 3 pick in the draft. 2) Yes, I absolutely expect Gailey to coach up Cam Newton - he did a nice job with the first "Slash" style QB back in the late 90's helping Kordell Stewart take the Steelers deep into the playoffs two consecutive years. Perhaps you don't remember that he was Cowhers' OC before he was hired to coach the Cowboys after the 98' season. 3) The weakest area of the Buffalo Bills at this point is their pathetic front 6 (other then Pro Bowl alternate Kyle Williams), on defense. But remember, I believe you must have a franchise type QB to ever win a SB, so this is really a moot point to me. 4) Of course I don't think the O-Line if fine. If I'm not mistaken, after that number 3 pick the Bills should use on their next franchise QB, they still have at least 6 more choices early in every round to fill out other positions, don't they? It's like you are thinking I want the Bills to draft 7 QB's or something. 5) I don't think the Bills need to draft a running back at all this April. I completely disagree with you on that point. Jackson and Spiller are fine to start with, and then there always seems to be undrafted free agents or kids off other teams' practice squads good enough to be a 3rd RB on the team. Besides, Freddy is not 40 years old yet, and I do actually think he can handle a bigger work load. 6) Yeah, the Bills should suck again this year and be in perfect position to draft Andrew Luck next year. Sorry, but that thinking is beyond my logical thought process. People were saying the same thing last year about being able to draft Jake Locker number 1 this year. Believe me, if Luck drops off like Locker did his senior year, most people won't expect him to be the number one pick in next years' draft either.

Point taken about Eli. However, he led the Giants to perhaps the biggest SB upset win since Joe Willy led the Jets over the Colts in SB 3, and he was also voted SB MVP of that game too. He was not Dilfer or Johnson riding behind his defense, despite the fact the Giants defense did play outstanding that game as well. So I have to rate Eli as a franchise QB, because here in Bills country, winning a SB is after all the ultimate dream.

Outstanding post, well thought out including research to prove your point! Of course, every single year the Bills draft since Jimbo's retirement up to this year, I have been in favor of them drafting the best QB on their board with their first pick, so I am biased in favor of your opinion anyway!

Let me ask you a few questions: 1) Are you old enough to have enjoyed watching Jim Kelly's career as the Bills HOF quarterback from 1986 - 1996? 2) If you are, did you enjoy the excitement of Kelly leading the Bills to 4 consecutive SB appearances, despite not winning any of them a feat that I cannot imagine ever being repeated by one single team again?? 3) Do you know the winning quarterbacks for the past 10 SB teams?: Let me renind you: Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Tom Brady, Brad Johnson and Tom Brady. 6 of those 7 different winning SB QB's are franchise QB's and everyone of them are still top 5 QB's in the NFL today. Brad Johnson is the only one of those 10 that we might compare favorably to Ryan Fitzpatrick, but even he had a better career then Fitzy to this point in Fitzy's career. I don't know, I certainly can see the light, but it seems you and hundreds of others on this forum and the Bills organization refuse to accept it. Ever since 1997, the Bills have either refused to or have been unable to draft or trade for their next franchise QB after Jimbo. We are now going on our 15th season without one. Do you think it's just a coincidence that over those 14 seasons without a franchise QB, the Bills have a record of 0-2 in the playoffs?? Yet in the previous 11 seasons Kelly was their franchise QB, their playoff record was 11-8-0 including their unfortunate 0-4-0 in SB's?? 19 playoff games in just 11 seasons with a franchise QB and 2 playoff games in 14 seasons without one. Gee, can I get a big DUH? But despite these FACTS, there still are only a few of us out here that think Nix would be a "fox" to just draft Newton or Ponder or Gabbert or whoever is at the top of his QB board with the number 3 pick in this years draft!! "Oh no, that would be a waste of a draft pick with all of our needs on defense", right???" "Oh, Nix should trade down for extra picks", right? So Von Miller is the "smart" pick, or, trading down later in the first round and taking someone out of the top 5 range along without getting our QB is the "smart choice"?? No, the smart choice to choose the QB first, and work on the rest of the team second. That formula has been proven 100% CORRECT in about 90% of the franchises that have gone on to win Super Bowls. I like taking the 90% correct route myself, but that is just my own humble opinion.

Yeah I got a text with the same news from WGR. That's nice, I hate these ugly things they've been wearing anyway. However, this time, I hope the coaches don't allow the players to vote to continue wearing the "punkish" dark on dark for home games - whatever the "home" uni's are designed to be, that's how they should be worn. By the way, let me know when the Bills send you a letter (since I no longer have season tickets), saying something like: Dear Peter, As a loyal season ticket holder, we just wanted to let you know we will no longer draft players like Aaron Maybin over Brian Orapko, C.J. Spiller over Clay Matthews, or Leodis McKelvin over Joe Flacco, ever, ever again. Yours Truly, The Buffalo Bills

Well said, sir.

Very odd. Not too often does a position coach go to head coach in the NFL. I was rooting for Perry "Fool"...as I unfortunately used to refer to him when he was the DC in Buffalo, because his defenses were always so bad... but then I quickly changed my dumb sarcastic opinion of him, when he came in to replace DJ and did what I thought was a miraculous job getting the Bills to finish up 3-4-0 as their interim HC. Fewell showed real passion and excitement during his brief 7 game stint, and I thought he would make a fine head coach if given the chance. I know he interviewed for the Titans, and its' too bad they didn't hire him. As for Mike Munchak, I didn't even know he was coaching in the NFL. I only remember the guy being a long time OL for the Houston Oilers. It certainly seems like a strange hire after Jeff Fisher gave that organization so many good years.

Outstanding!

At the risk of being removed by our ever diligent moderators, (again), I will tone down my response to your opinion. I agree that the best part of our country is the people in it and their abilities and ideas. I strongly disagree that national pride should be labeled "nationalism." And I find nothing "obscene" about film producers, sports producers, or TV producers putting together a wonderful short film on the Declaration of Independence. As for any political motivations I may have surmise were the reasons behind why that wonderful short film was put together on Super Bowl Sunday, I will simply leave those to myself. (This time.)

Here is what you, me and everyone else knows about the Bills' new ownership "deal". After Ralph Wilson dies, his heirs will sell the team. Now, that seems to be an easy fact to understand. I know I understood about 1 second after Wilson announced this a couple years ago. So for your take to make any logical sense, you have to change your thread to "Perfect time for Ralph to die." To me, that's a tad on the morbid side. In general, all these threads and opinions and rumors about Wilson selling to anyone before he dies are a complete waste of time to discuss. So for anyone else reading this repeat after me......."First Ralph dies, then the Bills get sold." If you say it to yourself over and over, it should take hold. It's only 8 words, most of the members out here should be able to memorize it.