OldTimer1960
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Posts posted by OldTimer1960
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42 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:
Someone on youtube put all the plays of Kincaid and Cook. The change is how these two got the ball was pretty evident when Brady took over. Tons of RPO and quick strike. In saying that, I just dont see how some of these guys fit into that offense. I just see guys like Ladd and Lagette as the best fits. I dont see a guy like Brian Thomas even being that good of a fit TBH. I think he is being used as a smoke screen. I almost wonder if the Bills would have Worthy over him.
I think they would adjust the offense to take advantage of Thomas’ skill set. Perhaps the Bills moved to the offense as you described it because they didn’t have a legitimate field stretcher/boundary guy with size. Every 3-4 games Davis would fill that role and then he would disappear.
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3 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:
Limited lateral ability?? The guy returned punts for the Noles. Maybe watch some of them on YouTube
I have watched more than his highlights. He is fairly mobile laterally “for his size”, but he isn’t going to out-quick or out-run most NFL CBs in my opinion. I could be wrong.
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8 hours ago, NewEra said:
But what happens if Kincaid blossoms into an all pro type TE, which many have expected? What happens if James Cook starts catching passes that he routinely caught in the past and stops fumbling? Both very possible.
What happens when Milano and Bernard return and turn into a top 3 LB duo. What happens when Daquan and Ed play close to a full season together? Both very conceivable.
What happens when Shakir, Samuel and a 1st rd WR allow us to spread the ball around more evenly and Josh doesn’t have the ire of Diggs lighting him on fire? What happens when Josh Allen becomes the best player on the planet? Certainly within reality.
I get that we’re currently less talented roster than the roster we started last season with. My counter to that- I think we’ll have a stronger roster to start this season than we had vs KC in the playoff game. A game that was within reach vs the back to back champions.
I don’t think you’re giving Josh Allen enough credit. I think 8-8 is our floor
I hope you are right. I just look at the roster on defense and see a lot of questions and paper thin depth. If Von Miller loses the battle to return to form, the pass rush (as it stands) is all up to Rousseau, Oliver, Epenesa and Toohill. I like Rousseau and I have been an Epenesa defender, but that looks like a bottom 3rd of the league pass rush on paper. At corner, there is no depth behind Johnson, Douglas and Benford other than Elam whom the team hasn’t wanted to put on the field for the 2 seasons he has been here.
Yes, that could all work out very well if Rousseau and Epenesa step up and Elam looks more like a 1st round pick than he has to date, but some or all of it could go the other way and, if it does, I don’t want to be sitting here next year thinking, “man, they need a lot of help and they would have been picking in the top half of each round - too bad they traded those picks.” It isn’t that I hope they don’t do well, but I don’t think a big trade up for even any of MHJ, Nabers or Odunze makes this team a championship contender this year. I’d rather sit tight at 28 or make some smaller moves and still get a talented WR and keep next year’s picks where they are positioned well to add some good young talent.
You could be right, this is just my opinion.
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2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:
I’ve been the conductor of the JT28, DK Metcalf and Breece Hall trains. I’m riding the Keon Coleman train this draftAre you getting kickbacks from Coleman’s agent? For as much as you like him, he is a major boom or bust prospect. There are not many 4.6 40 guys with limited lateral agility making an impact as NFL WR. Maybe he con buck that trend, but too risky for my blood.
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2 hours ago, Meatloaf63 said:
I meant just getting average players in the draft. I do know they have to get younger. But we have drafted at the end of the round and honestly Bean has made some mistakes. so if trading up is what it takes I’ll say this, he needs to hit on our first two rounds, and these guys need to provide more than the Boogies and Epenesa’s of past drafts…
The thing is, guys like Epenesa are pretty good late 2nd round picks. There is, of course, a big difference between early 2nd and late 2nd.
Look at the players projected to be available at 60 this year and compare that to what will likely be available early 2nd. It is a very big difference.
Given this team is undergoing a mini rebuild and picking late in each round, I think they are best off taking best player available at high value positions. They have to find contributors. I know they have to find a WR, but after that, they can easily justify best player available at DE, DT, CB, S. By the time they are into their picks in the late 4th and later, any position is in play (in my opinion) - just find the best players that are there.
2 hours ago, JaCrispy said:I said no, just because there is a slight chance the Bills could have a top 15-20 draft pick next year, and that would come in very handy for the rebuil…would hate to give that to another team…👍
I don’t think that is a slight chance. I think 8-8 this year is probably about what to expect, but a key injury to Allen, Oliver, or maybe someone else and it could be worse. What does the season look like if Von Miller doesn’t play any better than last year? It could get pretty ugly.
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3 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:
If we still had Diggs, I think a trade into the top 10 of the draft was very small. I honestly think that is a realistic option now. It would not surprise me to see up go up to get Nabers. Joe Bascaglia mentioned this as well and still had us walking away with 9 picks in this draft even after the trade. We have 2 2nd rounders next year now so anything can happen
It bothers me every time I hear about the large number of picks the Bills have. Their actual draft capital is middling this year. They currently have 11 picks, but only 2 in the top 125. Sure, it’s nice to hav an abundance of 4th, 5th and 6th rounders - they’ve done reasonably well late, but realistically if they get 1 or 2 guys that contribute as a starter or key backup out of those picks they would be doing quite well.
Regarding a big trade up, I’m not saying that Harrison, Nabers, Odunze aren’t very good, but realize that LSU had a top 3 QB in Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers AND Brian Thomas Jr. and they were very good, but did not make the 4 team championship playoffs.
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Other head scratchers if picked in the first (of course, just my $.02):
- Troy Franklin (size and hands questions and shaky combine)
- Darius Robinson (can play both DT and DE, but first round?)
- Any safety (unless you count Cooper Dejean as a S)
-Braden Fiske (arm length)
- Xavier Worthy (size & hands)
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13 hours ago, Meatloaf63 said:
This team lacks difference makers, running it back with more average players isn’t going to get it done. Go get some difference makers this team needs some.
They aren’t running it back, they are doing a mini-rebuild. Give them 2 off-seasons to get younger.
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13 hours ago, FireChans said:
Probably Legette or Worthy.
I like Ladd but I see him as a Shakir plus 2/3.
I do worry about McConkey’s smaller size and history of being nicked up. I just love watching his precision route running and after the catch he is a lot more elusive than I think he gets credit for. I agree he probably will never be “wr1”, but I think he can be really good.
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16 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
It might be possible to get 1 of Nabers/Odunze/BTJ and keep pick 60 for Legette/Franklin. Legette would probably require a move up again into the top 45 I imaginebut we could absolutely move into the teens say 16 with 28, 128 & 2025 2nd
then you could move from 60 to get Legette by parting with our other 2025 2nd
so you come away with
16. Brian Thomas Jr.
40. Xavier Legette
Still have a 4th, other late picks. Kept our 1st next year
would certainly be a fun combo.
Legette is a physical, very fast beast and plays taller than 6’1. as seen above, can be elite against man and has insane breakaway speed in open field
Thomas is 6’3 with one of the biggest wingspans in the draft, a true deep threat with 4.3 speed and the 2nd lowest drop rate among top WR’s. 17 TD’s. 2nd highest contested catch rate among the top 3 rounds of WR’s
gives our WR room a serious speed and size uprade. Both of which are needed badly
& a bonus, from interviews they seem to be fairly humble guys
I don’t think 28 & 2025 2nd and 128 gets you up higher than pick 20. Maybe high enough to get Thomas, but probably not enough to get Odunze.
16 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
It might be possible to get 1 of Nabers/Odunze/BTJ and keep pick 60 for Legette/Franklin. Legette would probably require a move up again into the top 45 I imaginebut we could absolutely move into the teens say 16 with 28, 128 & 2025 2nd
then you could move from 60 to get Legette by parting with our other 2025 2nd
so you come away with
16. Brian Thomas Jr.
40. Xavier Legette
Still have a 4th, other late picks. Kept our 1st next year
would certainly be a fun combo.
Legette is a physical, very fast beast and plays taller than 6’1. as seen above, can be elite against man and has insane breakaway speed in open field
Thomas is 6’3 with one of the biggest wingspans in the draft, a true deep threat with 4.3 speed and the 2nd lowest drop rate among top WR’s. 17 TD’s. 2nd highest contested catch rate among the top 3 rounds of WR’s
gives our WR room a serious speed and size uprade. Both of which are needed badly
& a bonus, from interviews they seem to be fairly humble guys
I don’t think 28 & 2025 2nd and 128 gets you up higher than pick 20. Maybe high enough to get Thomas, but probably not enough to get Odunze.
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11 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:
Would you think he’d be a step up over Gabe right away though, even before any potential polishing? And then the team can lean on the likes of Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir and Cook to fill the rest of the role we lost in Diggs.Watching Jayden Daniels freelance to Thomas, I could totally see him and Josh hooking up for some huge plays.
I am not saying that they shouldn’t draft Thomas and let him develop and yes I think he would probably be a starter right away and a strong deep threat from the start. I would be very happy to get Thomas as long as it doesn’t cost too much in picks to get him.
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15 minutes ago, FireChans said:
The prospects available are what give the picks their value.
Getting a first round prospect WR with pick 28 and borderline first round prospect WR with pick 60 in 2024 and likely pick 59 in 2025 is good value.
Who cares if it’s technically “worth” a 3rd rounder because of a chart?
I acknowledge that if the right guy is available, then go up. I would go up for one of Legette, McConkey or Worthy. Is there anyone else you would trade that much for?
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On 4/6/2024 at 5:51 PM, strive_for_five_guy said:
Interesting, any perspective on why you think Thomas will slide and/or not be 4th off the board? I was watching tape of him last night, salivating at the thought of Josh throwing to him. Seemed like he would take Gabe’s role instantly but be way more dangerous.Thomas’ physical tools are tremendous and you can see he has a lot of upside, but right now he isn’t a finished product. Bama admittedly has great corners, but they basically erased Thomas in that game. He is an outstanding prospect, but I don’t think he would step into lead dog role right away, maybe not even this season.
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13 minutes ago, FireChans said:
I hope beane is reading your posts my dude.
We can get a guy who would be borderline first round WR in 2025 in the mid second this year. Imo, that’s tremendous value for a 2025 pick 50-60.
But it isn’t just 1 pick, that’s 2 2nd round picks on 1 WR and you only get 3rd round value for the 2025 pick. If the right guy could be had, I guess OK. Those 2 picks will get you to about pick 45. If Legette or McConkey or maybe Worthy are there, I’d consider it, but not for anyone else that comes to mind.
5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:That’s certainly on the table. The more of these that you see, the more you realize that it is impossible to wait until 60. If they pass with their first pick (which would be shocking to me), they have to come up. You can’t add the 16th WR as your #1 WR, regardless of how good this draft is at WR. They either have to trade for a vet, trade up in the first, take a WR at 28, or trade up from 60. They have those 4 options but have to walk away with one of the top 8-10 WRs (or 2 of them).
They could trade down from 28 and still get a good WR prospect as well.
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On 4/5/2024 at 10:24 AM, Solomon Grundy said:
Fitzgerald ran a 4.63
What are you suggesting? Do you think they should draft Coleman? If they are taking just 1 WR early, I would be disappointed if it is him.
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4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Yea you are left with two 3Ts who won't get on the field a ton. Or a safety (I have Bullock here not Kichens but even after him there is a run of guys in that early 3rd round territory that could make sense - Hicks, Bishop, Taylor-Demerson). Or an edge who is more a base end than a pass rusher. Or a corner who might not be a starter in 2024 who you are drafting for 2025. Or a guard which I could live with but again question how much of a dial mover it is.
I think #60 is a tough spot for the Bills. Much more so than #28.
I have no problem with picks being made with an eye towards 2025. I know that the team will try to compete in 2024 while doing a roster reset, but I think it will be a bit of a down year. Now they are set up with first and 2 2nds next year to address any remaining holes that they can’t fill this year.
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21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Yea he didn't run well. I think he is a zone guy only. He could play outside IMO. But agree he also projects well inside because his agility measurements were excellent.
Agree, what I’ve seen of him showed outstanding quickness and he seems quite willing to play the run for his size. He could be a nice get that late (60).
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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I have voted Lassiter. I actually thought he'd gone. He is the best player left on the board IMO and I think the Bills corner situation is less settled than others. Douglas will be gone after 2024, I am out on Elam ever translating to our scheme. So when a corner is sticking out on the board like Lassiter is here he has to be the pick IMO.
I'd go Fiske over Jenkins as my 2nd choice. Think he is a better fit for what we do. So if this becomes a 2 horse race later he is where I will re-allocate my vote.
I'm lower than most on Kinchens. I think he is a sub par athlete to spend a 2nd round pick on. Bullock from USC is my next best at safety, but Lassiter, Fiske and Jenkins are all above him on my board anyway so I'd not be considering him in this scenario.
Do you think Lassiter is fast enough to play outside corner or is he mainly a nickel/slot? Didn’t he run > 4.6 at his pro day?
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9 hours ago, TOboy said:
Kinchens was tempting but I voted Fiske. He has the potential to be a long term contributor on the line.
Kinchens was last among Safeties at the combine with a 4.65 40 and last with a 35” vertical. In comparison DE Chop Robinson ran 4.49. That doesn’t necessarily mean Kinchens can’t play, but it is a pretty big concern.
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11 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
And this is a rather pessimistic view, IMO.
A year ago many of us learned a lesson by way of the MLB position. What will be, will be.
You say a young CB is needed to take Rasul's place. I say Benford could be that guy. I say Elam with a new DC and position coach could be that guy.
You say both S are questionable starters. I say many said the same years ago when Poyer and Hyde arrived in Buffalo and the opportunity and coaching led them to both becoming All-Pro level players.
With forecasting football players it's easier and safer to take the pessimistic view as if it doesn't work out that way the "penalty" is a simple waving of the hand and a "Boy, I'm glad I was wrong, fells" comment. There's also an inherently higher possibility of a guy failing than succeeding. That's why I believe so many take that approach.
While I don't guarantee Elam or AJE or anyone else will definitely step up and become the Bernard of this season....at the very least last season was a lesson in patience and waiting to see what things will look. We have some holes and some areas to improve, for sure. But honestly either positive or negative no one actually knows what the roster will look like or what players will be improved from last year. Time tells all.
I do tend to be more pessimistic than many fans, but just take the pass rush. It wasn’t great last year and their top sack producer is gone. Miller was a shell of his former self - if he improves 50% from that, it still wouldn’t be good. I like Epenesa and the guy that they signed from Washington should be pretty good backups, but where is pressure and sacks coming from? At best, it’s unproven.
i also hope that Elam comes around and can become a good starter, but the past two years suggest that isn’t likely.
Who is the backup to Oliver? Maybe that will come in the draft, but not if they use a bunch of picks to move up for wr.
I guess my point is that there are a lot of questions on the roster, especially on D. Now, I am not complaining about that- I think the reset needed to be done, but patience will be needed and I would keep those questions in mind before trading a bunch of picks to move up for WR because they likely need them to address other needs. I don’t think that 1 WR in this draft makes this a Super Bowl contender instantly.
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1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
I would say we have other needs, though they are more depth than anything.
We could use another EDGE rusher. Some CB help. And the RB room does need at least 2 more bodies. One for RB2 and another to compete for the PS with Evans and take preseason reps. I would even say Punter is still upgradable as well.
But roster wise I think we are sitting pretty much when Beane traditionally likes to be. No huge holes (aside from WR) and lets him take the best available bon his board.
I think this is a pretty optimistic view.
I think we really need a stater-capable player at DE in the likely event that Von Miller never regains decent starter form. I was happy that they signed Epenesa, but I don’t think he is a good starting level player, though he could prove me wrong.
A young CB to replace 30 year old Rasul Douglas in a year is also needed as is a decent backup to Oliver at 3T.
I hope I am wrong, but both S are questionable starters and there is no depth there at all.
i think these are real needs that will show up during the season. It will take 2 off-seasons to address those needs, in my opinion.
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Is there a medical issue with Mitchell? I thought that I heard them allude to one on SiriusXM, but I didn’t hear what the issue might be. I can’t find anything about one on the net. Anyone hear about a medical on Mitchell?
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35 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Yep. If he had cleared his man coverage a split second sooner the Bills have a touchdown at the end against KC. But he got caught up just long enough by the DB in coverage and Josh had to hold the ball one tick too long and Jones got there.
I'm not sure I totally agree on the difference between he and Beas. Beas wasn't great against man either. He was an elite zone beater not because of his suddenness but because of his natural feel for the soft spots in zone defences. In was instinctive. I think ultimately it is why he was an UDFA yet went on to have some success, because you can't measure the thing Cole Beasley had that was special. It was feel.
I think Shakir is more sudden but he doesn't run routes as well and doesn't have the same feel. Even last season there were multiple times when he ran into coverage where you really want your slot receiver to just stop and sit. That was a major problem his rookie year and it is why despite being on the field on a third of the Bills offensive snaps in 2022 he totalled just 20 targets. He did improve his route running a bit in year 2, and he is definitely a threat with the ball in his hands when actually the player he reminds me of isn't a receiver at all - it is Austin Ekeler - with that low centre of gravity and ability to twist and turn out of tackles and bounce out of contact.
Could he be a 1,000 yard receiver? I'm not sure for two reasons:
1. I still think the Bills will want to have a lot of 12 personnel packages where Kincaid essentially becomes their slot receiver. I don't think they are going to have that as the single base formation or anything like that, but they are going to want to use it some. In those packages Shakir either comes off the field or splits wide where he just isn't close to as effective for obvious reasons - alligator arms, route running, size.
2. I think Josh Allen is a downfield thrower. I don't know that he is every going to be Tom Brady who is happy to move down the field with running backs, tight ends and slot receivers. Partly because he doesn't throw those little option routes, screens and wheels with enough precision for YAC and partly because I think he can lose patience when you try and force him into that kind of game plan. So I'm not sure a shifty slot receiver like Shakir will get the level of targets he needs for a 1,000 yard season.
He could probably do it once somewhere down the line.... Beas nearly did it for us in 2020. Lance Moore who was mentioned as another comparison somewhere in this thread did it once with Drew as well. But those true pure slot guys are rarely 1,000 yard guys on a regular basis. Edelman did it three times in six years with Brady but again I just don't think the Bills offense can or should be a replica of that New England offense.
My realistic projection for Shakir in 2024 is something like, 80 targets, 60 catches, 820 yards, 4 TDs.
And I think that production would be fine if it comes to fruition. They now need at least 1 starting WR, maybe 2, but for sure an X boundary guy, but I don't think Shakir will be carrying the offense - he is a complementary piece.
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12 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:
If the Vikings convince the Chargers to trade out of #5 (and the Chargers should be easily convinced), then the Bills should pull the trigger on trading up with the Giants to 6 and get Nabers. All for it.
Giants should be into it since it gives them another 1st for next year when they will be in the QB market after they get out of Jones contract at the end of this season.
That’s way too much for me. The Bills are in a rebuild that will take 2 off-seasons to complete. Giving up all of those picks for 1 player will delay that rebuild further and certainly doesn’t make this team a championship contender this year.
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2024 WR Draft Class
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I think Branden Beane has noted that a lot of defenses are taking away or making it harder to hit them deep by playing 2 high safeties as the Bills succeeded with Hyde and Poyer. I also think that Diggs was hurt second half of the season or slowing down some.
I don’t think any OC is going to say - hey, no deep shots in this offense because we don’t want to gain big yards in 1 play. I expect if they can get a legitimate deep threat that we will see a few more deep shots, but coverage schemes will impact that as well.