OldTimer1960
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Posts posted by OldTimer1960
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5 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:
What would the Bills realistically need to give up (in picks, not silly player ideas please) to get to say pick 10 to 12 for Odunze?
Next year's #1+28+?
28 & 60 & next year’s #1 might get you to pick 12ish. Not sure that is high enough. Regardless, I think it would be foolish to trade next year’s picks - they are going to need them as they will still be tight to the cap for the foreseeable future.
FWIW, all 11 picks this year would maybe get them pick 13.
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1 hour ago, BBFL said:
Because you don’t have 1st or 2nd round grades on them means there isn’t a depth of quality potential players? Got it.
Look at the history and numbers, Safety has some moderate success rate for finding a player in rounds 3-7.
2018 provided 5 guys who are productive in the league between rounds 3-6.
1 All-Pro who was a UFA
2019; 6 between 3-7
1 UFA starter
2020; 6 between 3-7. (This draft has 3 guys half the board were clamoring over to sign this off-season)
2021; 4 between 3-6
2022; 2 between 3-7, 1 UFA
2023; 7 between 3-7, 1 UFA
All of those referenced have either become a starter or log a decent amount of snaps coupled with production.
In terms of the “mid range talent”, this draft has some decent prospects who could become starters over the next few years. More so to me than last years draft.
Obviously it would have to be a revisit down the road, so you’re more than welcome to come back to this and prove me wrong when the time comes.
I don’t disagree about the home run talent. It’s minimal at that position, 2-3 guys for the first two rounds. But there is a lot of quality and experience coming out this draft at that position.
All I have done for S is to read scouting reports. With few exceptions, the reports I’ve read describe a lot of what they used to call Strong Safeties. - I think they call them “box” safeties now. Most are described as good in run support leaving something to be desired in coverage. I don’t think that is what the Bills are ideally looking for in a passing league. Now, maybe the reports I’ve read are wrong or maybe just that there are different opinions on the prospects.
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6 minutes ago, Desert Bills Fan said:
With Franklin coming for a visit, I thought the Bills were high on him…but now I think with him testing poorly, they want to see what is there (or not). So I liked the possibility of him as a pick.
lately have been more intrigued by Legette!
It wasn’t that he tested poorly in the 40 or vertical, he just looked really shaky running drills- gauntlet and running patterns. I understand he said he was sick then, so maybe that’s all it was, but his thin frame also gives me pause. I think he’s a good step down from Mitchell and Thomas.
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14 hours ago, BBFL said:
Absolutely loaded with talent at Safety this year.
CB I think falls out of the range talent wise to be picking at 60 but you never know. Pretty top heavy and I feel it thins out between the middle of round 2 to round 5.
Might have to target one of those Penn State boys, all 3; Dixon, Hardy & King, have talent. King probably goes in the 3rd IMO and Hardy the last of that trio purely down to size.
Oregon’s Jackson is intriguing, big body who uses him frame well to contest catches; only problem is he has a tendency to hang on and grab the matchup he’s guarding. Needs some refinement there.
Jarrian Jones and Cam Hart are two CBS I’m keeping an eye on. Look to have the tools to be decent boundary players.
Only concern is why they moved Jones primarily to slot CB at FSU this year when the two prior he was solid outside… Think he’s better than Cypress and a little worse than Green who’s coming out this draft also.
Do need to draft a CB and at least 1 safety though…
Will be interesting to see the revamp.
I don’t think it is loaded a S. Who do you like there that you don’t have to take in the 1st or 2nd? Looks like a bunch of box safeties mostly after the first few.
10 hours ago, BBFL said:
Personally, there’s at least 20-25 guys who will get drafted at that position. That, at a minimum is 10% of the draft. Same as it has been. Of those guys I think 10-15 of them are starters with 2-3 years.
DeJean, Hicks, Bullock, Nubin, Bullard, Bishop, Brade, Kinchens, Oladapo, Williams, Green and Demerson.
Then you got the other haul of players who could develop into quality talent; Smith, Mustapha, Logan Jr, Vaki, Proctor, Carlies and Taylor…
Difference of opinion but I think it could be a great year for safeties.Boy, I haven’t studied any film on the S group, but what I’ve read doesn’t align with “loaded class of S”.
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35 minutes ago, Yantha said:
I never get too excited for 40 times with safeties. It doesn't translate well to being a "good player" as much as having a high football IQ, instincts, and CHANGE OF DIRECTION ability.
Not saying that 40 time is insignificant (it IS). Acceleration to recover from separation, providing over the top help with corners, closing on a ball carrier. All these things and more are helped by a good 40.
But if you don't have the other important intangibles, all you are is an amazing track star.
Cole Bishop is more than that for sure. Definitely worth a look if he's the BPA.
Agree on the speed point and would be happy to have Bishop, but unless they take him at 60, they won’t get him. I think there will be better players at other positions at 60 and by the late 4th I don’t think there will be any S worth picking in this class. Maybe you could get Kam Kinchens there after his disastrous combine testing, but is he fast and explosive enough to use any pick on?
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On 1/24/2024 at 9:48 AM, NewEra said:
I hope we hold off on S til rd 4 or later
This doesn’t seem to be a very good S class once past the first couple. They may not get a good S prospect at all this year. Picking as late as they are in each round and looking at >60 players being picked between their 2nd and the next pick they are better off in my view just concentrating on finding the best prospects they can regardless of positional needs.
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1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:
There is no depth at CB.....Jamarcus Ingram....not so sure. They have lost Tre and Dane Jackson as depth...that is significant.
Safety is similar, Rapp and Edwards then what? Hamlin and Cam Lewis (190 lb) don't make me too confident. They will fill in to get to 90 with some bodies, they need a couple to really stand out.
This team will not have the depth they had in recent years on paper going into the season and that is OK by me since they are getting a little healthier cap wise.
That’s right. I support what they are doing, but it is likely to cause short-term pain on D.
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On 3/23/2024 at 7:43 AM, gjv said:
I would take Ricky Pearsall, Florida, over Franklin.
Really like Pearsall, but I think he is too similar to Samuel and Shakir. He kind of has to operate in the intermediate and short middle of the field and there will already be a lot of traffic there with Kincaind, Samuel, Shakir, Diggs.Quote
On 3/23/2024 at 12:39 PM, LABILLBACKER said:There is 0% chance Franklin is still there @ 60. If we want Franklin, Coleman or Leggette it's going to be at 36. And if we want Sweat, you'll have to use a 4th to trade up higher than 60 in the 2nd. The 2nd tier wrs will come off the board early day 2.
I disagree - I think Coleman might very well be available at or close to 60, less likely, but still possible with Franklin in my opinion. I know that he says he was sick at the Combine and the game tape is not as bad as his Combine performance, but that was a pretty questionable performance there and his weight/strength is concerning. I think Legette will be gone by mid 2nd.
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1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
nothing against the player…but absolutely not. DT Murphy is the only D player if available at 28 that I’d consider taking. Not drafting a WR in Round 1 would be a failure. The talent is simply too good. Even if it’s the 6th or 7th WR. They are far more likely to impact the team immediately & going forwardI don't like the Darius Robinson idea, but I challenge the idea that not drafting WR in round 1 is "failure". To me, if Brian Thomas Jr or Mitchell is available, I am completely on-board taking whichever one is there. If they are both gone (and Harrison Jr, Odunze and Nabers of course are gone), then I would consider other positions or trading back if a suitable offer is available. I have the highest respect for the guys who can evaluate the game film of these guys and I know some good evaluators like Xavier Legette, but I think you can get him or Troy Franklin 10 picks or more later. My hesitation with Legette is that he still needs route running refinement and he is an older prospect for a 1st round pick - I'm not saying I wouldn't be happy with him, but there is maybe more risk there than with other players. Franklin doesn't ring the bell for me, either, but I'd happily take him in a trade down. Xavier Worthy is just too small for my tastes at pick 28.
To be clear, if the team decides to take Legette, Worthy or Franklin at 28, I will understand and support the pick, I just have some reservations with them.
I don't see any other WR that I would strongly consider at 28 - I LOVE McConkey, but I don't think I'd take him there and I think Pearsall is really only a slot guy and too similar to Shakir and Samuel.
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45 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Another Mock Draft (The Athletic 2.0), another DL...
28. Buffalo Bills: Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri
The Bills tried to move up to get one of the top four receivers, but once that didn’t work, they had a deal in place to move down … that also fell through. Moving down would be preferred if the board played out this way. But with the depth of the receiver class, there is no reason to force the pick and take someone who doesn’t fit what the Bills need in an X receiver with speed to get over the top. Instead, they used their pick on another premium position and landed a long, versatile defensive lineman — a selection that had Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane written all over it. The vision is to eventually use Robinson as a starting defensive lineman who can play on either edge or inside at defensive tackle, depending on the situation. As a prospect, Robinson has been compared to Arik Armstead, whom the Bills were in on as a free agent. — Joe Buscaglia
I don’t like this idea at all. Darius Robinson can be a good story with great effort, but he is not a good starting DE unless you are really looking for just a big run stopper and if that’s the case just re-sign Shaq Lawson. I’m not a pro scout, but Darius Robinson feels more like a tweener than some great weapon to move around the DL.
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1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
I've seen people like Jeremy White celebrating the signing of Austin Johnson as meaning it makes WR in Round 1 more likely and DT less likely.
While I'd like that to be true, it really doesn't do anything to change the situation.
If anything Johnson removes the potential of something like Sweat in Round 2. Jones and Johnson are 1T's. Sweat is a 1T. With the signing of Johnson behind Jones, I don't see us taking a 3rd 1T when we still only have one 3T.
Byron Murphy and Johnny Newton are the two DT's that would be in consideration for us in Round 1. And their position? 3T - which is still a big hole for us. Maybe even bigger now as money is getting tighter and the options in FA are getting thin.
I still have my fingers crossed WR is our first pick. But the idea that Johnson does anything to the potential of DT in Round 1 is incorrect.
Kris Jenkins in round 2 could be someone to watch.
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14 minutes ago, JMM said:
So...Xavier Worthy. His speed is tantalizing, and his production was very good against big boy competition. Of course the question is size. He seems comparable to Devonta Smith. Remember all the questions about his size and durability when he came out. What do people think about Worthy as compared to Smith? Would he be worth the risk at 28? The thought of what he could do on bombs from Josh...
First round is too rich for me for a 165lb receiver with real elite speed and quickness, but just OK hands. I think his floor is pretty solid as a dangerous playmaker, but one with size (and maybe durability) issues. He *could* do much better than that, but I would be concerned about durability and NFL DBs beating him up physically. I won't question a team if they take Worthy in the first, but I am hoping it isn't the Bills.
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The Bills appear to have done what they could to shore up the secondary before the draft. They now at least have veterans who have played S in the NFL in FA signees Taylor Rapp and Mike Edwards. At CB they still have Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford to start with Kaiir Elam the top remaining backup - and he is questionable after 2 seasons in which the coaches did not trust him to play much.
Given that Douglas is close to 30 and is expensive and neither Rapp nor Edwards have been consistent starters so it is conceivable that they take a CB or S early - even round 1 if they really like the prospect. Now, I'm not advocating using their 1st on a DB this year, but I could really imagine Beane and McDermott loving Cooper Dejean - though he has yet to workout while recovering from a broken fibula.
We have reports that the Bills met with the following DBs at the Combine (list may be incomplete):
- Cooper Dejean - He is the opposite of DE Chop Robinson, Dejean has outstanding production and really fits the McDermott profile. Don't know if he can play CB to 1st round level in the NFL, but he could be a dynamite S.
- Kamari Lassiter (CB) - He is very quick, but he skipped the 40 at the Combine and ran 4.61 at his pro day. I think the 4.61 eliminates him from consideration before the 3rd at the earliest. Bills' new DB coach coached him previously.
- Javon Bullard (S) - Could see the Bills being interested, but nowhere near the 1st round. Bills' new DB coach also had Bullard at Georgia.
- Kamren Kinchens (S) - his athletic numbers at the combine were borderline undraftable, but the Bills have strong connection to Kinchens (new DB coach had him at Miami)
- Calen Bullock (S)
Let's discuss!
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On 3/2/2024 at 10:25 AM, GunnerBill said:
I think he has elite get off, the best natural bend round the edge in the class and a better bull rush than you expect to see given he is slightly undersized. He has what I will politely call a "muscular backside" and huge thighs and he generates his power through his lower body so when he wins with that explosive first step he can continue the drive that stops tackles getting back into the down despite not having ideal length.
The negatives..... the production doesn't match the traits and that is a concern. We have been here before with Jayson Oweh out of Penn State and while I think Chop is just all around a better prospect the story on Oweh is a production switch wasn't suddenly flipped when he reached the league. My view on why the production isn't there is that he is technically unrefined. If his sheer athleticism doesn't beat you he doesn't have a counter. He has some lane discipline issues to tidy up in the run game but I think that can come with NFL coaching. The thing that drops him out of first round grade territory on my board is the hand usage. That has always been big for me for pass rushers. Chop needs to get his hands up higher in his rush and be more decisive and violent with them.
I am not yet knowledgeable about what proper hand usage looks like in pass rushers, but I was really pleasantly surprised at Chop Robinson. I watched his games against Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio State. I thought he was quite disruptive, stouter vs. the run than I expected and generated a good amount of pressure on the pass rush. I'm not pounding the table for him, but I was really surprised at what I saw after reading the concerns about his pass rush production.
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24 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
Beane could do anything but he's shown he's prone to trading up, not down.
The Bills aren't going to keep 11 rookies, for sure, so unloading some picks is essential. Trading back compounds the problem.
I expect another trade up, like last season, to get a solid starter they really like. Not ahuge move - they don't have the capital for that - but two three or four spots.
I understand your point and agree mostly, but I think the play to to trade up into maybe the 3rd using the glut of later picks where the value of those picks moves the needle in the trade. The earlier of the two 4ths would maybe move them two spots up in round 1 - perhaps worth it if they could get someone like Thomas or Mitchell, but I think they might need to go further up for those guys.
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I think that if a trade down is considered, it will be because they have multiple guys that they like, but not love, at key positions available to them. I’ve come around on Mitchell enough to nab him if he is available, but after him I don’t know that there will be a player that I really have enough conviction on to say no to a fair trade down proposal.
At WR, Legette is a possibility, but we clearly seem higher on him than most. I don’t personally think that Franklin is so good that I couldn’t pass on him, Worthy is too small for my tastes and I don’t think Coleman is worth that pick. Could 1 or more of these guys be great? Sure, but any of them could be just OK or worse.
Newton and Murphy are good enough to take there, but they do duplicate Oliver’s skill set a bit too much. Could you play Oliver and one of them on passing downs? Yep, but that front likely struggles against the run.
Latu has injury concerns and Chop Robinson has production concerns.
The question is, who would be interested in trading into that spot, how far would you have to go down and what would you get in return? I do think if they moved back 10 or 15 spots, they could still have at least 1 of Legette, Worthy, Franklin and McConkey left. I know that not all are the X guy that they ideally seem to need, but those are all still good WR prospects that could help the team.
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1 hour ago, DCOrange said:
It's not even close. Benjamin was a terrible athlete (ya know...relative to other WRs). He was bottom of the class in pretty much everything. Coleman is a very good, borderline great athlete. He just doesn't have the speed you ideally want, but even then, his speed score is above average.
The speed is a concern, but I am as concerned about his quickness/lateral movement skills too. He is very smooth with some agility for his size, but with that he has rarely gotten open in a good college conference.
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I am really not crazy about Worthy in the first. He IS super fast, but he is terribly thin and he has OK hands. I get the idea that he is a deep threat for a big armed QB, but I fear he won’t stay healthy and that NFL DBs may man-handle him. I know he is quick and will avoid jams and hits sometimes, but he won’t avoid all of them. I don’t think that any other WR that might be available there is free of concern either, so I would understand the pick.
I would not criticize a high upside OT. By pick 60, the options at DT, DE and S will be pretty limited. While they need each of those positions, it’s better not to reach for the position and take a better prospect at a position of lesser perceived need. I think there will be a step-back on defense no matter what they do in the draft, so get the best prospects you can regardless of need this year.
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24 minutes ago, NewEra said:
He must be worried that he’ll run in the 4.7’s!
hard pass on Coleman!
I’m not quite a hard pass, I would think about it late 2nd. He could turn out to be great, but I am worried he won’t be able to get open and he won’t dominate as much at contested catches in the league. There are many receivers I would take a chance on before him - even guys who aren’t fits as the X.
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1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:
What your saying is true but people also need to remember that comparatively he’s a lot bigger than 95% of his peers tooI don’t disagree with that. I wasn’t passing judgment on him as a prospect, just that he likely knew that he put his best time up. I’ve read that the Combine surface was exceptionally hard and fast this year and that many who ran at the Combine and their Pro Days are posting slower times at their Pro Day.
That being said, I think the Bills could be within a small trade up distance at pick 60 to get Coleman, if they like him. I don’t think he will go in round 1 or the top 1/2 of the 2nd.
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15 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:
Sounds like Keon Coleman isn’t running at FSU pro day today. I think that is not a wise decision unless he’s hurt. He needed to get in the 4.5s
He probably knows he ran as fast as he could at the Combine.
The Combine provides an even field to compare relative speeds of the players there. A different 40 time on a different track isn’t very comparable. Even if he ran 4.5 on a different surface, it doesn’t change the fact that he was considerably slower (at the 40 yd dash) than his competitors.
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7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Franchise QB's are $50M now.
Elite pass rusher, WR, LT are $35M range now. Which is why I view round 1 as a "ceiling" play.
I don't subscribe to the "can't go broke making a profit approach" to drafting that the John Butler Bills and current Ravens use.
Lot's of small profits and not much elite talent at key positions. The Ravens personnel department is very efficient though.........they've been together a long time and do a great job identifying players that fit their schemes.
Like those Bills they also benefit some defensively by being one of the few 3-4 teams. That allows them their pick of some good big DL that aren't viewed as favorably by 4-3 teams. And some cheap, disposable edge rushers.
This is a key point. Being an outlier reduces competition for the type of players you need.
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1 hour ago, SWATeam said:
I think 28 plus next years #1 could get us into the top 10. I have a feeling we are moving up for one of the top 3 WR's.
You might get to 10, but I don’t want to give up next year’s picks. From now until Allen is done, cap is going to be tight for this team. It’s a good problem to have a top QB, but it constrains your FA spending and causes you not to keep players you want to keep. They will need those picks.
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10 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:
Of course barring a Ricky Williams trade deal this will never happen but man all these great receivers wanna come here the last couple years I really can’t figure out why. Since the QB clearly doesn’t wanna win enough.
It would take every pick the Bills own this year to get to the middle of round 1 and that won’t be high enough to get him.
2024 WR Draft Class
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
That’s too steep a price for 1 player, in my opinion.