OldTimer1960
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Posts posted by OldTimer1960
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38 minutes ago, blacklabel said:
At most I would assume they'd do a very small move, like how they leapfrogged Dallas last year for Kincaid. So maybe they jump from 28 to 26, maybe 24, somewhere in that range. But there's no way they're climbing into the top ten.
Got a lot of spots to fill this season so it's a good year to have eleven picks. I might be wrong but I believe it's the largest number of picks they've had in the entire McBeane Era.
But, in spite of the volume of picks, it isn’t a lot of “draft capital” those late 4ths and 5ths are not worth a lot in trades and, while Beane has found some pretty good players late, they won’t fix all the holes in the D with them, either.
I think trade down early and trade up strategically in 4th, 5th, 6th if there are a few guys left that they like.
29 minutes ago, mannc said:Even next year’s first round pick has limited value because teams assume that it will be near the end of the first round.
Exactly- it’s worth about a late 2nd this year.
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5 minutes ago, Ga boy said:
No way old man. At 28, Roger will step to the mic and say the Buffalo Bills have selected Troy Franklin, WR, University of Oregon.
In my opinion, that would be a bad pick. Go find video of Franklin falling twice running routes against air at the combine and watch him struggle through the “gauntlet” drill. He is also only 175lbs. Now, I acknowledge that doesn’t erase what he accomplished last year, but combined that would leave him off my list of options for round 1. Maybe at 60, I’d take him.
1 minute ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:I'm fine with trading down. That is what I would do. Just saying if a top 3 WR was there I could live with going after him and giving up next years first.
Defense will be fine and better than last year. Poyer and Hyde were not good. Milano will be back. DQ will be there all year. Bernard will have more experience. Miller can't be worse. Rousseau will be in a contract year. Go WR in the first and Edge in 2nd and they will be fine.
I hope you’re right, but I think you’re underestimating how much they will miss their rotational guys (Floyd, Phillips, Settle, and I think I’m forgetting someone.)
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4 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:
Can't see going 28 to 10. But if the right WR is there I would be fine giving up next year's 1 to get around 12-14. We are most likely going to be picking at 27-32 next year. So it's not really a very valuable #1.
The guy would have to be special though. Otherwise I actually advocate moving down in a deep draft for WR.
Down is the play, in my opinion. Unless they pull a miracle in FA, the defense is going to take a step back this year - if Miller doesn’t return to some form close to what he was for the Bills before his injury, defense could be pretty bad. I would really need to be sure of the guy I want to trade next year’s 1st because it could be considerably higher than 28 next year.
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1 hour ago, Ghs24mike said:
I would move next years first and this years first for one of the top 3 receivers in this draft for sure.
We are arguably 1-2 players away from being top contenders. WR2 plus the ability to take over for Steph is on the top of Beans list
This year’s first plus next year’s first might get them to around pick 15 which isn’t high enough to get Harrison, Odinze or Nabers. It *might* get you Thomas jr
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There are at least a dozen WRs in this draft who would help the Bills, but not all of them would complement Diggs, Kincaid and Shakir. Finding a big, fast outside guy to hopefully be better than Davis was is hard. I think of the top WRs it is really Mitchell, Coleman and Legette that fit that bill.
Of that group, I would exclude Coleman - he could be dominant, but I would hope for someone who can get open and he hasn’t shown that and he lacks top end speed. In spite of the current hype around him, I think he will languish on the board until late 2nd.That, for me, would leave the decision in round 1 to Mitchell or Legette or trade down or pick another position.
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
I still think he is a slot. That is where I'd put him. I think it is where his skillset will be seen to best advantage. But I do think he can play some Z for you as a move receiver, as to distinguish him from someone like Khalil Shakir who is a pure slot receiver and you can't use for more than the odd snap here and there as an outside guy (to be clear I think he is more talented than Shakir I am just talking scheme usage wise).
As for the comparison to Mitchell - I have them very close on my board. I have Mitchell slightly ahead but I don't have a big gap between them. It's not like I am here banging the Mitchell drum and being anti-Ladd. They are my WR6 and WR7. But I do think when I watch the Bills our needs are someone who can beat man coverage and who does most of their work downfield and they are not Ladd's strongest suits. If he goes to a Shanny scheme and they move him all over the show I can well imagine him being excellent. I don't think that makes him an obvious fit for the Bills.
Excellent explanation - thank you.
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8 minutes ago, Motorin' said:
There are some similarities to Gabe and Legette in terms of size. But there are a few key differences that would make Legette an upgrade.
One is that Legette's top speed measured on the field last year was faster than anyone in the NFL during the season. The man exceeded 22 mph.
Legette also excels in a number of short routes that Davis doesn't. He's very good on bubble screens, drags and quick slants. Those are some bread and butter plays that allowed him to be one of the best receivers beating man coverage last year.
Also, his 73% catch percentage last year is better than any year Davis has had...
So his long speed is much better than Davis, he produces very well in the short underneath game to beat man, and he catch the ball more consistently.
Agreed, but “better than Gabe” hopefully is not the bar to clear at 28. To be clear, I’m not saying I don’t like Legette, but 28 feels rich for him.
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52 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:
I'd say there is a non-zero chance Carolina gets desperate and stupid
I think trading down is the play, IF they can get enough to do so. A high 4th would be ok to go down 5 spots. I would be willing to move even further back. I’m not loving the likely options at 28 - Mitchell I would understand but he isn’t a certain star, Coleman I’m not sold on and it isn’t just his 4.6 40, Franklin - no interest until 60, Worthy is too small for my taste in the 1st. I think they could go back 15 and still likely have a shot at Legette.
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4 hours ago, Gambit said:
Please let us land him or Thomas
I think the Mitchell hype is too high. I guess I won’t be disappointed if they take him, but I won’t be dancing, either. I see the movement skills and ability to cut fairly well, but I’ve watched a couple of full games and I think he has potential, but he has to work harder than he appears to.
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On 3/9/2024 at 1:43 PM, BBFL said:
If it’s between those two DEs, you’d hope they choose Latu. Though Latu honestly reminds me of a more atheltic AJE who was successful the finals two years before declaring.
This draft is going to be what they value more. There’s a top end talent at DLine and WR, after that it’s a plethora of guys who could be special.
This draft could go so many ways. Pretty exciting.
I don’t see the comparison to Epenesa in college. Epenesa was almost completely a power pass rusher and Latu is a very good technical pass rusher, though he has a serious neck injury in his past.
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4 hours ago, Kaenon said:
1-28: WR, Brian Thomas Jr.
2-60: S, Cameron Kinchens
4-128: DT, McKinnley Jackson
4-134: WR, Brenden Rice
5-144: CB, Kalen King
5-160: DE, Nelson Caesar
5-163: OL, Roger Rosengarten
6-189: WR, Luke McCaffrey
6-200: CB, Johnny Dixon
6-204: LB, Braiden McGregor
7-248: OL, Charles Turner III
Kinchens is a fringe athlete for a safety and I don’t think he will go in round 2, but the Bills did hire his coach from Miami…
50 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:Right here
I’m not grooving on Mitchell or Franklin or Coleman or Worthy in the first. Of that group, I guess I’d take Mitchell, but athletic ability aside I worry a bit about his effort - both from game tape and scouting write-ups. Doesn’t seem very much like Beane/McDermott type.
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2 hours ago, noacls said:
He is an exceptional athlete
With very long arms.
I wonder if they would have interviewed different players than they did if they had known they don’t have a pick between 60 and 129?
Going to be a lot of waiting and watching after round 2 unless they can parlay some of their late picks into one earlier pick. I don’t think they will make it back to round 3 unless they trade out of the first. They might be able to find a way to get to fairly early round 4.
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I would stay away from Johnny Wilson.
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16 minutes ago, noacls said:
He is an exceptional athlete
With very long arms.
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2 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:
When you buy cheap you buy twice. See Harty & Sherfield.
True, but I don’t think any team expects their 4th and 5th receivers will make much impact. I do agree that we need a bit more from those spots than we got last year (though Sherfield was fine on Special Teams).
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20 minutes ago, Toyo321 said:
Not buying into anything. The fact is this team has zero cash on hand to bring in any elite WR talent that has prior NFL vet experience. Hell Gabe left for $13 Mil per year to Jacksonville. You are not signing any top WR in FA without forking over at least $10 Mil a year for a WR with actual NFL experience and a top 30 talent if there is even one available which right now there isn't, and for under $10 mil per yr. It's not going to happen this year, this team needs to reposition itself as a gunslinger mentality. We have a competent serviceable D that we can subsidize with the addition of players added in the draft.
WR & S needs to be the top needs at this time in the top 3 picks.
Well OK then. I guess that is what they should do. I would just remind people that two teams with outstanding defenses were in the Super Bowl this season.
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8 minutes ago, nosejob said:
I'm all for trading picks from next year as well as our later rds to move around this year. Beane can really ball out this year and I think he will. There are 5 teams with 2 second rd. picks and 5 teams with 2 in the 3rd....AZ. having 3. We need to hit on the first 4. BB gonna have to wheel and deal.
With the state of the defense, I think it is imprudent to trade next year’s picks. A future draft pick is usually devalued by a round in a trade, so next year’s 2nd is worth about the same as a 3rd this year. In addition, I think the Bills could be drafting earlier next year due to a step back on defense. If that happens, I would not want to be sitting at about the middle of the 2nd next year wishing we had a pick because we traded it for a late 3rd in the 2024 draft.
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53 minutes ago, Toyo321 said:
We need to go #1 WR and #2 S, Rd #3 or #4 WR. Anything else is a wash. We need to shed the 5th and 6th round picks to get back into 3rd round.
Until this teams Coach and GM learns that you need to make big plays with your WR corps, when you have to have them consistently, they will never get to a SB with the retread of WR's currently on this team.
You don't put on worn out tires on a formula 1 race car and expect to outrun your competition to the finish line for the checkered flag.
This is McD and Beane's philosophy and they don't get it. Sad but true for 7 plus years now.
Not going to happen (2 receivers in first 3 pick) unless there are at least half-decent vets in place for DT, DE, S. I do think round 1 will be wr if there is one who is close to BPA. After that, they need to fill holes. Don’t buy into the “they have 11 draft picks” narrative. After the first two picks, the combined value of the rest is about one 2nd round pick.
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I really like this re-signing. Now, go get Daquan Jones or another big DT who can play next to Oliver and keep the smallish LBs clean.
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Why would Carolina trade early picks for Aiyuk when they are in position to get a good WR in the early 2nd this year?
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1 hour ago, TD716 said:
If you know your DL is rotational why do you pick a DE in the first round. First round guys need to be over 90% snap count. DB, S, TE, C, LB is where you find guys top at their position later in the first round. Rousseau is around 50-60% snap count
DB, C,S, LB,DT is where we should be looking if we stay where we are in the first
I think this is unrealistic.
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7 hours ago, TD716 said:
First rounders need to be on at least a pro bowl track after their second year.
This is a very unrealistic expectation.
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4 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:
Beane does not like to have holes on the roster. He likes depth, and has been good at fielding a roster that can absorb hits. I think we need to risk some depth, and go after more playmakers. That's what wins in the playoffs, and where we have been lacking. I think they will sign a veteran at DT, S, and DE. I would try and get 2 DT in the draft. I would take Sweat in the second if available. There are a number of 3rd and 4th round fellas that would be worth a look. I suspect Beane will find a way to trade up into the third. I've already said numerous times, but I don't like the edge players in this draft. Latu, yes, but he'll be gone before #28. I don't think you're finding the answer in the draft, and I would not expend a high pick on one.
The plethora of safety options in free agency ought to tell you that the position is a buyer's market. Mid-round, I really like Tykee Smith, and there are others who should be available. I think Javon Bullard would be great, but you'd have to grab him earlier than I believe we should draft a S.
I personally think they need to keep stocking Oline. Folks are kind of forgetting about that. You can get a serviceable day 3 RB. WR early, and another early day 3 is where I think they need to concentrate.
I don’t know that Beane will have the cap to do what you’re suggesting in FA, but I hope so. I agree on S.
you did talk some about the mid-rounds, but right now the Bills have to wait 69 picks after 60 for their next pick. 3rd and up to mid4th are the meat of the mid-rounds. Not to say they can’t get lucky and find good players later (ex: Shakir, Poyer, Diggs, others), but counting on finding good ones there is not a sound strategy.
In the end, I see no way that they can fill all of the holes they have this year unless they have some magic in FA. Maybe the best approach then is to load up the offense and expect to give up 28 a game on D.
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10 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:
Legette ran a 4.39 so he's a hair slower than Metcalf. As things stands to me he's a guy if like here as compliments what we have an as upside to be a alpha #1 WR we'll need in 2-3 years as Diggs moves on.
I agree but sad part is the draft doesn't have an DLineman to me pop out as instant starters. Safety is rarely a 1st Round pick and nobody grades out as one unless we take a flier on that kid out of Iowa.
I agree - at DE, I think they would have to think hard about Latu and consider Chop Robinson- after that no thanks until at least 60. The top 2 DTs and several of the next tier are a little too similar to Oliver and playing two smaller DTs would expose Terrel Bernard’s smaller size. Agree, not big DT worth 28. Also agree that S not worth the pick over WR.
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Draft night I can see this coming
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I think CB is a possibility to brace for. DeJean has CB experience, but might play S in the league. I would be a little surprised if they took a S in the 1st given the low $ the league is paying for the position.