strive_for_five_guy

Someone can try to make the case that Allen isn’t even top 3 for MVP, but they’d be wrong. You acknowledge yourself that no one means more to their team than Allen. When Hurts went out for the 2nd half against Washington, all the sudden Barkley did nothing, which further highlights that Barkley has needed Hurts to be as great as he’s been this season. Regarding Burrow, there has never been an MVP with 8 losses, only Barry Sanders was an MVP with 7 losses. Wins matter when it comes to being MVP. Even Burrow acknowledges he shouldn’t win MVP, as they aren’t even going to win their division. The only viable alternative MVP candidate to Josh is Lamar.

Must mean Samuel is playing, right? Regarding the DL callup, wouldn’t surprise me if some guys are going to get the day off, like Rousseau or Oliver.

Pat Surtain has become the recent DPOY favorite, around -200 currently. Do you think he’s got it locked up too, or would you say it depends how the games go tomorrow? I think that race is actually still wide open, and guys like Kerby Joseph and Andrew Van Gunkel still have some pretty juicy odds out there (like 25-1 and 30-1). But maybe Vegas knows the media is settling on Surtain as worthy at this point.

Seems like a free ROI of 41%, right?

They were, but that was after Week 16 last year. Then Lamar put up 5 TDs on Miami and a perfect passer rating in Week 17, and his odds went to the -20000 I shared. He was a lock at the end of last season. Josh’s odds are far from -20000.

Lamar’s odds were -20000 heading INTO Week 18 last year, with Dak second at +1800. And they didn’t change much or at all after Week 18, to my memory, as he didn’t even play. This year the vote will be a lot closer than 49-1. https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10103361-nfl-2023-mvp-odds-tips-on-the-favorites-and-best-values-for-week-18.amp.html

So Lamar is putting up better stats than Josh with a worse roster?

I think voters have likely made up their mind already, but still pulling for the Browns to give Lamar some problems today. Myles Garrett is supposedly playing, so maybe he can cause issues?

If I’m interpreting it correctly, Spotrac has us at 3rd most dead cap this season at $75M. $31M of that is Diggs, and then mostly of mix of the other vets that were released last offseason too. Heading into 2025, we’re sitting at 22nd with about $5.4M so far. $4.1M of that looks to be Tre White. So that’s another good point, right now about $70M less in dead cap. Really amazing what this team has been able to do this season so far, considering the cap situation.

At his pace, he should finish with 30+.

Between the existing roster (not pegged to lose too many key free agents), free agency and the draft, I truly think that Beane can make this roster even stronger heading into the 2025 season. Which is kind of scary for the rest of the league.

That illustrates my point. That’s what the hive mind has convinced themselves of, but the award is for the offensive player deemed to have had the most outstanding season. It doesn’t have to go to a skill player, but all the voters are going to vote for Saquon because they know they’ll be chastised if they don’t.

I agree that a hive mind often exists, I’ll actually be surprised if Josh wins MVP in a landslide. A few voters have already gone on record this week that they’re leaning Lamar (Mina Kimes, Dianna Russini, at least one of the Athletic voters), so unless Lamar is horrible tomorrow, they’ll likely still vote Lamar. There’s a lot of voters that just haven’t gone on record, so some may feel the same about Lamar’s stats being arguably better than Josh’s, even though most of us Bills’ fans know all the reasons why Josh is the better MVP candidate this year. I think Josh wins it, but I don’t think it’ll be a landslide. Saquon for OPOY is a great example where hive mind exists though, IMO. Yes, he’s only the 8th RB in history to rush for 2,000 yards, but if we want to play the stats game, well for all those touting the historical greatness of Lamar’s stats, I think one could argue he is just as deserving for OPOY. But this hive mind thought says that OPOY is carved out for the skill players in recent years. Who says that needs to be the case?

I don’t have the time to do it, but it’d be awesome if someone had a running tally of the known MVP voters, and the latest on who they’ve said is their MVP vote.

I think the reference about the next few weeks just means his play in the playoffs will catch people’s eye. Not that there’s an imminent deal coming for him, but we’ll see.

I personally think we will whoop them when in our house. Pretty sure McD and Babich have a bad taste in their mouth from earlier this season and will have a masterful plan to stop the Ravens, plus we’ll have the crowd in our favor too. And Josh will want to show everyone what a real MVP does in the playoffs.

Will definitely be referencing this info.

Seems destined that it’s going to be Us v the Ravens in the divisional round. Hopefully we can repeat history by beating Lamar again in that spot, and then start a new chapter by beating the Chiefs in KC. I agree with you it won’t be an easy road to even just get to the Super Bowl, but keeping the fingers crossed. If we’re going to make it to the Super Bowl, seems fitting that we’d need to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead. The pieces are setup perfectly for a storybook ending.

Josh diving for the pylon in the snow is literally the equivalent of the Air Jordan symbol and his slam dunk from the free throw line. Air Allen could literally be a marketing brand, just like Air Jordan. Sounds to me like Josh has Acho’s vote, which is where Acho has been until he questioned his position after Lamar’s performance on Christmas.

Baltimore has 4 even (Henry, Ricard, Flowers and their Center).

I take it this is the CBS vote you’re referencing? I mean even though Josh is the betting favorite and there’s lots of reasons he should win MVP, I would not be surprised at all if it’s a really close vote. Mina Kimes, Dianna Russini and at least some from the Athletic seem to be leaning Lamar. I’m really pulling for Myles Garrett playing this weekend and Schwartz’s D giving Lamar a tougher time than expected, as that could potentially shift some voters back to Josh. Also hoping the Pro Bowl selections further highlight Josh’s value v Lamar’s, but don’t necessarily trust some of the MVP voters to be that smart. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2024-nfl-mvp-watch-lamar-jackson-overtakes-josh-allen-as-joe-burrow-saquon-barkley-hang-around/amp/

Which media pundits specifically?

First Super Bowl game would be a decent reason

Will love arguing with Ravens fan about Lamar’s value to his team now. And Josh is also named the starter. This all bolsters Josh’s case.