BADOLBILZ

After the 3rd or 4th time you prove @4merper4mer points incorrect in a given thread you realize there's no convincing him and he's probably just trolling.

I haven't done a deep dive on Dorlus because he just never popped in the games I watched. I get Boogie Basham vibes from him. Got some pass rush but doesn't finish well. Tweener DE/DT size, over-aged, underproductive.

Josh is a tremendous QB and the most fun player in the league to watch, IMO. He got ever-so-close to Mahomes level for that brief moment in the 13 seconds game. But Allen went into the offseason thinking he'd made it because he left the field winning against Mahomes and the defending champs. But as it turns out, that wasn't actually a great version of Mahomes or the Chiefs. They choked and he played careless, gunslinging football in defeat to Cinci the following week. Mahomes went into that offseason knowing that he needed to change and be a better situational QB/leader. That's where he regained his separation on JA. We hate Mahomes but the guy has had his professional priorities and personal life more in order than JA.

I'd break up the difference between the Chiefs and Bills into 2 subsets: Roster.........the difference is that the Chiefs have a true game changer(Chris Jones) on defense and the Bills do not. Von Miller might have finally been that guy in 2022. They need a WR2 to do it the right way.........but if they are willing to use Allen like a battering ram they could have reached a SB without that this year. Leadership.......Yes Reid and his staff are better than McDermott and his........but even more importantly,IMO is that Josh Allen is significantly behind Patrick Mahomes in terms of knowing what it takes to win and prioritizing winning over everything else. Mahomes has gotten there. Josh has not. Josh f#cked off last offseason......came out the gate with a dreadful performance in NY and did his part with sloppy mechanics and decision making to get his OC fired on their way to a 6-6 start. He booted and rallied under Brady from there on out running the ball 10 times per game to get them within a couple minutes of beating the Chiefs in the playoffs. But on that 2nd and 9 play Mahomes takes the short throw to Diggs..........Allen instead took the glory shot to Shakir and failed. This is the biggest difference between these 2 players now and it's enough to decide their playoff games. The Bills would be nowhere without Allen but they are also hamstrung some by where he is at as a leader/winner. Allen is close enough to get there in one offseason........but he has to level up. He needs to get back in the lab(as he says) like it's 2020 again and the Bills need to roster-prioritize making him look good like that again even when he is being asked to stay in the pocket for 3/4 of the regular season. Hopefully Beane can re-tool the roster enough to not take a step back and these teams can meet again but that's not a given.

The point is to put your analysis in a broader perspective, not to criticize your research on WR picks. It's right that sometimes later WR picks turn out better than 1st rounders........but people could easily misconstrue that same isolated data to justify not taking a WR early and instead drafting for immediate need. The reality is that the X and Z WR positions are among the premium "edge/island" positions where great individual talent is hard for an opponent to suppress and prevent from changing games. And subsequently those are the ones that are hardest to address with quality.........they rarely show up in free agency unless they are old(see Von Miller to Bills) or injured/washed. That's why you take swings at those positions early in drafts.

BUT.........that analysis goes about the same for all of the truly "elite" positions outside of QB. Pass rusher, LT and WR are traditionally among the lowest(if not the 3 lowest) "Pro Bowl" hit rate positions with first round picks. Generally 70% of pro bowlers at those positions come from picks after round 1...........last I saw over 40% of first round safeties turn into pro bowlers which was the highest. Does that mean that a team should just pick safeties/guards and centers early because those are the highest "pro bowl" level player hit rates? Absolutely not. Because those positions aren't nearly as important wrt winning championships. Every offseason fans forget that the purpose of the early rounds is to find the future cornerstones of your franchise at premium positions..........those positions where you don't often see high quality players in their prime change teams in free agency. Instead they focus on filling holes with their mock drafts. You gotta' draft and develop those elite position players......and while the "big hit" rate isn't as high as some lesser positions........it still beats the odds of finding those MUST HAVE players later. Personally, I'm not looking too hard at safeties and 1 techs in the first 2 rounds. Those are "free agency" value positions and one's that I hope to draft and develop replacements for later.

Yeah the mid-season malaise has been a pretty regular thing under McDermott since the first one in 2017. That one was a doozy where they had arguably the worst 3 game defensive stretch in team history prior to breaking out of it with an upset win in KC. Your point is right on, IMO. These swoons have resulted in them never having the #1 seed. More importantly than home field, IMO, it has meant that they've never had the bye to rest and recover and instead are often playing de facto playoff games as early as November due to starting with 6-5 and 6-6 records etc. And that has taken it's toll on their health in the playoffs. It's not the only reason, obviously....but they haven't had that #1 seed that KC had in 2018, 2019 and 2020 and 2022. This season was the first in which they reached the SB without that #1 seed/bye.

I think Friggin' Lonnie bit his own tongue on this one. The GOAT of TSW whipping boys.

For as good as the Bills secondary was statistically I think it was probably understood around the league that the Bills biggest fundamental weakness come playoff time was their inability to really excel at man coverage in situations when they needed to be able to at least mix it up a lot better against high octane playoff opponents. They've been fish in a barrel in the secondary in their exit game each of the past 4 seasons. That reflects on Butler directly.......not so much on Babich or Washington. I think McD actually might be seen as less culpable by some because he tried to integrate a true man cover CB by signing off on the Elam selection. You'd presume Butler would find good work but after the run of speedboat jobs against his secondary you wonder what the appetite is for a guy whose game might not be seen as fully adaptable. Williams is moving to LB. And I wouldn't be surprised if he ran like a 4.7 or something at the combine. He plays slow. Violent but not fast. He isn't a starting NFL safety, IMO and drafting safeties early is like drafting RB's........they'd BETTER be very good or you wasted a pick.

Yeah I think we figured that out when you expressed how much you hoped he got put in a better situation. Like anyone is really personally invested in that trust fund baby if they don't want him on their team. 😂 But let me warn you.........Buffalo is apparently no place to try to develop a young QB.........the general consensus is that Patrick Mahomes would have never made it in Buffalo! And I'd also add that there shouldn't be a 3rd QB on the 53 man roster. So backup or bust for Wilson. Need that extra spot for depth at other positions given that there is likely to be a bit less quality depth due to cap constraints.

I liked the part where Johnson said that it was unacceptable that they weren't better with all that talent on offense. Bad OL, 1 WR and no QB...........but yeah.......ALL THAT talent. 😂 Woody should have reviewed Saleh's receipts and fired him after the 2022 season............but I'm glad he didn't.

You were one post too late. But substance abusers unite! Not fair you guys getting lumped with other types of abusers.

And to the contrary..... I was pretty confident he'd just be an "ok" starting QB that would keep his team in QB purgatory..........which is what he's become. I don't particularly like him.........his underdog story is offset by his assh*le dog stories(which people now forget)..........and don't really care that he's doing well but do hope he gets a nice fat contract from Tampa so another team gets themselves in cap hell and maybe we can take advantage of that.

He was an excellent player for the Canes but not sure he will test well or pass the medicals everywhere. Seemed like he was held together with chewing gum and popsicle sticks last season. Always getting hurt and having to come off the field for a few plays. He's a gamer but not sure he's coming into the league ready for 10 years of punishment either. More instinctive than physically gifted. I wouldn't use a second round pick on him. He may become Micah Hyde 2.0 someday because he has those elite instincts............but so may some 5th or 6th rounder in THIS Bills defense. Very deep DB class.

I suppose that could be aimed at McD but I assume that's in response to Matt Fairburn saying there was friction between Butler and Elam on the SHOUT podcast. Seems more like a "I'm a great DB coach" post than a "why wasn't I made DC" post.

I'd say decrease. Williams was a massive underachiever. Some of the stuff you get away with in college just won't fly in the pro's. The least surprising thing I saw in the Senior Bowl was Williams face masking a RB to the ground. Dumb as a box of rocks.

Yeah Butler was long seen as the heir apparent at DC. I assume he wasn't going to stay around after he got passed over.

Yeah he's known as being a hard a$$ in an age when players get coddled............which of course, doesn't help you much as a recruiter. Maybe not having the recruiting responsibility will make him easier to work with. Sad to see John Butler go but figured that would happen once he got passed over for Bobby Babich jr.

As a Hurricanes fan I was glad to see him go when I saw the headline. Later found out he was going to the Bills. 😂 He just wasn't pulling his weight as a recruiter. He could turn out to be a great coach for the Bills........he came to Miami well regarded........he just did the worst recruiting job of any position coach on staff and that aspect has only become more important in recent years. What I'd look for is the Bills to maybe gain a little scouting edge on late round DB's..........he has recruited a lot of these guys(mostly unsuccessfully) in this draft class while at West Virginia/Georgia/Miami.

Yep it's coming full circle. The grumpy old men of TSW won't pay for Bills content...........but fortunately they will be able to read about the results and transactions every morning on TSW. "For chrissake the Bills traded Bullfrog! The only guy they got left for 4 eyes Schottenhoffer!".

Do it Jerry. The entertainment value would be great. Meatball McCarthy and Rex. Could've been the HC matchup in SB XLV if the Jets didn't come out flat after the win in NE in the divisional round.

It's a subjective take. Turnovers are massive and change games and seasons. Realistically, White can't actually cover Hill or Waddle so system/plan and pass rush were the biggest keys to his success that day. If you'd have told me Greg Rousseau would end up with 15 sacks after that day too I'd have believed you. It was the "everything came together" game of the season for the Bills defensively. But also Douglas game isn't all "splash". He's more rugged/physical, durable(obviously) and likely more versatile than White at this point and is an active locker room leader(White is more a "by example" type). The most compelling part of the arguments against keeping White though are the relative depth of the room and ease of finding starting quality DB fits in this defense thru later picks. And this is all assuming that the achilles injury doesn't totally finish him off as a cover man. Not a lot of good examples of older CB's bouncing back well from this. Recently, Nik Needham was a nifty slot guy until he tore his in 2022 and it took him 12 months to get back and then he was ineffective the rest of the 2023 season. With that injury at White's high mileage I think you kinda' have to ASSUME he's not going to be right next year, if ever. The fact that his sorta' full recovery from ACL tear turned into a two offseason affair doesn't bode well for this rehab.

My biggest concern really is that the Bills would go into a draft that has excellent quality early and potentially good depth late at WR/OL/DB and instead of leaning into those strengths they try to reach for immediate need at DT and DE early........positions I view as weak this year, personally. That's a recipe for disappointment. That's how you end up starting a draft with depth players and finishing with depth players. Retaining Von is a risk. I think he's probably 50/50 to be worth the $6M or more this year because that doesn't buy you much in free agency at edge and they got squat on the roster behind he and Rousseau. I think they could get pretty close to what Tre White could bring coming off a torn achilles(an underrated CB killer) for close to league minimum via Christian Benford. Then draft a future starter or 2 in the secondary on day 3. I don't know where they are getting solutions at DE.

Yeah I see your point, they could just roll with Kameron Kline at RDE and be fine so long as Tre White can keep that slouch Benford on the bench. DE in the Bills system is the position where physical talent is the most important. No defense asks DE's to have any broader of a skillset in order for the defense to succeed. Very hard position to fill with impact. Is Miller totally washed or does his recovery just extend into a second offseason like White's ACL recovery did? I don't know but if you are gambling on upside at a position in the Bills defense DE is that position. I don't have any problem moving on from either player if I know the replacements are at least going to allow the defense to remain a strength. But November 2022 Von Miller would be much more valuable than September 2023 Tre White. That part is not disputable.