billsfan89
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Posts posted by billsfan89
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he might not be a huge upgrade but the difference between 7-9 or 9-7 is not huge- if you can do a lot of little things better we could go to 9-7 or even 10-6 and get into the playoffs - many games are won or loss on one play.
Well the NFL is such a luck oriented league that a two game swing is not that much of a big difference. The Cleveland game and the Jets game could have went our way. The Oakland game, and the Jacksonville game were ones that could have gone against us.
Sometimes it evens out but there are so many games that get decided by lucky bounces, blatantly bad calls, or other weird lucky occurrences ( Really long field goals and overtime ect ) that it creates such a small difference between 5-11 and 9-7 there are teams that are mid level but because of the luck factor they fall to a bad record. Than there are mid level teams that make the playoffs due to getting the luck.
Of course there is the great equalizer the injury bug.
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Rome is hilarious...personally I could listen to this dude 24/7 and the clones that call in with their takes...
You probably don't like him cause you called in once, got manual buzzered and got run 10 seconds into your call...
then you got mad while Rome talked about how and why you got run for like 5 minutes and told all the clones out there in Jungle land to either bring something a lot better than what you just brought or hang up the phone, further infuriating you...
War to Buftex getting run, Rome being on forever and Marshawn Lynch staying out of the ink blotter for an entire year...
Boom...outta here.....
Oh my Goodness!! GOODNESS GRACIOUS!!! Of all the dramatic things I have ever seen in my life!! This one has to be the most dramatic!!
Rome sucks he is just a loud dick who never really talks about sports that much. All he does is interviews but he never asks any good questions. His callers are never all that insightful either. I don't get the appeal at all.
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Correction: Buffalo may have the LEAST KNOWN Left Tackles in the NFL. These guys are not player personnel experts. They are basically groupies rating players based on the "have I heard of them?" factor. If Walker gives up fewer than 10 sacks it will be a step up from Peters.
PTR
Well Walker would have to also be the same run blocker Peters. And as much as we ragged on peters he was a great run blocker more so as the season wore on. So even if Walker gives up 7-9 sacks he could be a step down from Peters.
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The guy is still a top 12-8 WR in the NFL yeah he is not in the top 5 anymore but he is still a great talent in the NFL. Just think of how many WR's you would want before him.
Guys who I would without any debate want ahead of him for one year only
Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Jhonson
Randy Moss
Anquan Boldin
Brandon Marshall
Steve Smith
Guys who you could make a case as being better but its really close either way.
Wes Welker
Reggie Wayne
Calvin Johnson
Chad Ocho Cinco
TJ housmedzada
Marquis Colston
And just for fun Lee Evans
So depending on how you slice it Owens is still in pretty elite company. Oh and if you can still think of anyone better that I forgot fell free to point them out.
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For Dorsey i would give up a second and maybe a fifth. He is not worth our first or even next years second and third. We need a DT but not to the point that we need to sell the farm to get him. Dorsey is a square peg in a round hole in KC. He isn't fast enough to play DE and isn't able to clog up the middle like a true nose tackle.
Don't get me wrong I think he fits perfectly with us. He is good at rushing in a two gap system and he can hold the line well. Him and Stroud along with Maybin and a healthy Schoble makes me confident in our D-line and since we have Kyle Williams in a pass rush role that he excels in.
I don't think the Bills want this guy even if he was available for a second and a fifth. He is on a big rookie contract and its still a good amount of picks to give up and since the Bills don't like to trade high picks ( Anything above a third ) for any player it doesn't look like they will pull the trigger on this guy.
KC will trade this guy to a team like Washington for like two seconds and a third. I think they want to get Value for this guy instead of playing him in a system he is not fit for.
Also Dorsey is not a bust he didn't have a great rookie year but DT is a position where it takes time to become dominant very few DT come in right away and become a top ten dominator. It takes two to three years for a DT to fully develop
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Hmmm, in baseball, we look at players who hit their mid 30s and all of a sudden get better as prime candidates for steroid/HGH use. Why not do the same for football? Players that were once washed up and at the end of the line go to new england* and get new life? That new life is HGH. HGH mind you, that was already shown to be present in the pats* organization. What else have we learned from baseball? Players get it from their teammates. It's not a stretch at all to think that bruschi, etc and all the rest of their 40 yr old defenders are or were on some type of performance enhancing drugs. And stop with the "everyone does it" excuse. Its a tired, substance-free excuse for classless pats* defenders.
Spygate is spygate. The pats* cheated and there is no reason to believe that they haven't been cheating since 2001. They filmed the walkthrough of the rams in 2001 and were caught cheating in 2007. Am i supposed to believe that they weren't cheating the entire time? They aren't a dynasty, nor will they ever be, and their "titles" are tainted.
Honestly if you don't think that at least 70% of the NFL is on HGH than you are fooling yourself. And the number is most likely higher. The NFL testing can't test for HGH so players use it often why not if you don't you will fall behind.
How many times has an older person told you that players used to be smaller and how a guy who was 6 foot 4 230 pounds was the biggest guy on a team. Now on most high school teams they have a few kids bigger than that. The reason for the increase in size is two fold one more people playing the game and the use of steroids and now HGH.
Human beings are just not meant to be 6 foot 6 and carry over 320 pounds and still be able to run a forty in below five seconds. HGH is just a part of the NFL and once they find a test for that they will either come up with a new drug or use masking agents to not fail tests. Yeah its sad but its true the crooks will always be ahead of the cops.
I know the pats dynasty is tainted but its not because of drugs its because of spygate.
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People hate Colin because he tells you how it is. You might not agree what he says but that is Normal. I find him off the wall a bit but he does know what he is talking about and has been correct in a lot of his statements after the fact.
No people hate Cowherd because he is a moron. Tells it how it is yeah Sabermetrics its just stuff for nerds its not like anyone has ever won with that stuff ( Well except the Red Sox who broke a 86 year drought curse to win not one but two championships ) and yeah he is so right about that. He doesn't know what he is talking about and his TO comment is just the latest of proof.
Another reason Cowherd is hated is because his national show which sucks replaces local programming that is better than what ever Cowherd has to say. Yeah he is right about some stuff but like any good predictor he brags about the handful of accurate calls and than sweeps under the rug the hundreds of times he is wrong.
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I live in Dallas and I agree with the majority of posters, Cowhead is unlistenable (if that's a word). He reminds me of a slightly tamer version of Skip Bayless (another douche). Skip would always throw out statements for "shock value" and then try to agrue for the contrary side of the arguement. I absolutely refuse to listen to him.
Skip Bayless is another dick who should not be employed by anyone let alone ESPN. Seriously all he does is be super critical of player which would be good if he could back that up with logic instead of using anecdotal evidence he says stuff like I say him miss a shot and look tired so he sucks. And I don't know what sport he knows anything about. He portrays himself as a basketball expert but some of the things he says are just so stupid.
Bayless can't even follow the puck in hockey and once again denounces Sabermetrics for no reason other than they are thinking too much. And his opinions in football are O.k. but he doesn't say anything original and there are way too many good football personalities out there to waste time on him.
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Ahhh the injury bug
Didn't it seem like the Bills had fewer injuries when Rusty Jones was our trainer ... the last couple of years (maybe this is a Dick reality) it seems like more Bills have gone out for longer periods of time. Plus we haven't heard the current trainer's wife sing the National Anthem yet ....
The Bills had a freak number of injuries in 2007 but in 2008 they had I would say the normal amount of injuries. For whatever reason it seems like the NFL in general is seeing more injuries for longer periods of time. I don't know if thats true but from an anecdotal position it seems like more stars and starters are going out with injuries. But thats just my own perception.
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The Bills this year are the classic mid level team. They on paper are mostly projected to go between 7-9 and 9-7. Yet they can fall to 4-12 or go up to 11-5 its all a crap shoot. In the NFL there are so few certainties so its hard to say well this is going to happen and this isn't. The Bills are in the majority of the NFL they have a lot that can go well and a lot that can't
With the exception of the bottom three and the top four teams the rest of the league is in our boat. Another great equalizer is the injury bug. If you can stay healthy you almost are guaranteed to be .500 or better because other teams will get worse than you. In the NFL injuries are much more rampant than in any other league. So your optimism is justified but so is pessimism its just the way the modern day NFL is.
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The picture you paint is why coaches like Marty Schottenheimer always lose in the playoffs. Marty wants to run first all the time and he runs too much in the redzone, never taking chances, even with good field position outside the redzone.
In 2004 he changed his tune and the team had a great offense. He liked Antonio Gates, so he was more willing to throw the ball down field.
Marty and Drew Brees had a fight in 2003 on the sidelines when Marty benched Brees for no reason (in Pittsburgh after a goofy turnover that wasn't Brees' fault). I love Doug Flutie and everything, but that benching was uncalled for. It was Marty's conservative game plan that was causing the problems. He had no confidence in Drew Brees.
In 2004, Marty said "Martyball" is dead and they became a great offense.
Bottom line: You have to have confidence in the passing game as well as running the ball, because all good teams stop the run and if you can't pass you have no chance to win. The best defenses in the league stuff the run and control field position and the only way to counter that is to have a good passing game.
Martyball is playing offense to move the ball steadily up the field through running and smart short passes. It works during the regular season but fails in the playoffs. The Dolphins did this last year and they got a division title but got smoked in the playoffs. When you face better defenses they can stuff the box and make you ineffective on offense. You can play not to loose in the regular season but you play to win in the playoffs or else you are just lucky to win even one game
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i dunno about Gruden and his insecurity with QBs, that's the last thing we need here! he seems to collect them like DJ collects DBs
Well Gruden did have a good four year run with Gannon in Oakland. Its not like Gruden ever had a lot of good young talent at qb in Tampa. He just never drafted one high enough. I think if he got a good talent at qb he would stick with him and more so if he was young
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No Marty Schottenheimer?
Schottenheimer would be a good fit he knows how to build a team. While he won't have as much if any success in the playoffs we need to get their first. Simply put I want the problem of not getting far in the playoffs instead of the problem of not getting their at all
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Cowherd is feast or famine for me. I enjoy alot he has to say, think he can be funny and relevant. He goes too far alot and beats topics to death, and as a Buffalo fan he ticks me off with his uninformed views on the town. He also thinks he's too cool for school and that can get on your nerves (especially for a fantasy football guy). He must be doing something right, cause he gets paid good money to talk about sports for a living on a national radio show. Not too shabby.
What he does right is he is a tool for ESPN. He never says anything out of line or edgy. Did you ever notice that whatever he talks about is pretty much whatever is on sports center. The higher ups like him because he follows their blue print and its cheaper to syndicate him nationally than provide local radio that might get higher ratings but would cost more. He is just a dumping ground for ESPN radio to avoid local content.
The only thing he seems to know is College Football. Other than that he is just a dick who got really lucky. All that he can do is be a loud mouth who draws just enough attention.
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Holmgren is way too old to take over the task of rebuilding the team. Even if we could get him (We won't too much money) He seems like at most to be in it for a Bill Parcels like run of take a team for 2-4 years squeeze out as many wins and hopefully a title.
If this team goes 8-8 or 9-7 and we loose 2-3 games because of DJ's bad decision making than I could see Ralph firing DJ because of fan reaction and the fact that DJ cost us the playoffs. If that was the case than I could see a guy like Holmgren coming in and riding the hot hand and seeming like a hero for getting the team into the playoffs.
But it won't happen anyway so don't worry about it.
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I voted for Gruden he seems most likely. The other three want too much control and more money than Gruden. Also Gruden is the youngest out of the four and made the Raiders into a winner an accomplishment that is remarkable and if he could do that for Oakland he could do that for us.
If we were going to go after a big name Gruden is most likely. Even if I could choose out of the four I would still take Gruden. We have a situation that is similar although not as bad as Oakland's was in the late 1990's. If we fail in 2009 we need to be rebuilt and Gruden seems better suited to do so.
Cower- I don't like the 3-4 and he seems like he can't work with limited resources.
Holmgren- Too old seems like he would be two years and done if he struggles.
Shanny- Did o.k without Elway ( Best season was an apperance in the AFC title game ) but not as good as Gruden.
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Taylor's strength was that he was consistent in getting sacks. In his prime Taylor was a beast who you could pencil in for 10 plus sacks a year and he forced fumbles. Keep in mind what drives up Taylor's value is that he was the pass rush in Miami there was a lot of years that he was their only pass rusher so he got all those sacks despite many double teams and ineffective players around him.
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Cowherd is the worst radio personality on sports talk radio. How he got syndicated is a mystery to me. HE SUCKS all he does is talk about golf, college football, and whatever espn feels is important ( Either Bret Favre or A-Rod ) And if you live in New York/New Jersey metropolitan area you know how stupid the decision to let him on the air was.
In NYC no one cares about college sports. AND GOLF IS NOT A SPORT IT IS A GAME. The worst part about Cowherd is that shoehorning him into the schedule bumped Max Kellerman who wasn't the best but actually did something different and talked about things relevant to the area. ESPN radio sucks they force feed their national product and than drive out the local competition. If you live in Kansas City good luck trying to talk about the Chiefs because ESPN has to talk about Tiger Woods or how A-Rod sneezed.
Everything that is bad about ESPN is personified by Cowherd he repeats his points all the time. I get it you think A-Rod isn't clutch but you don't have to say it 50 times in a row. Cowherd also knows nothing about hockey (which is still the fourth most popular sport in America and increasing in popularity) he also knows nothing about baseball and refers to sabermetrics and those who follow it as baseball nerds aka I don't understand it so it sucks and I won't bother to look into it because it may mean that I have to do my job the right way
So yeah I don't put much stock to what Cowherd has to say. TO was a gamble that we needed to take, its one year he pumps up our offense and shuts up than he gets to play in the NFL a little longer. Sorry to turn this into a rant but he sucks and is the epitome of the awful nature of the bad side of corporate America.
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Considering how much time and resources TD had it is really unforgivable that this team never went to the playoffs once. He swung and missed on the Mike Williams pick, he wiffed on Losman and gave up a ton of picks for him which set this franchise back years for several reasons. Than he missed on two coach hires. Yeah TD had the Lee Evans pick and the Willis Mcgahee pick wasn't terrible considering we got a few good years out of him and than turned him around for two third round picks. TD also let Pat Williams walk.
Marv had only two drafts and one coach hire. He had the Whitner pick but Whitner is a good safety its just there were other players we should have taken. But Whitner is no where near the mistake Mike Williams or JP was. Marv also had the Dockery signing which turned out to be terrible. Marv had less time and less resources so while he did not have what i would call a good tenure I would say it was much better than TD.
To TD's credit we had a good defense but he had no idea on how to build an offense. He tried to inject Bledsoe but than gave him no o-line and no Tight end and at times no recivers. Than he wanted to build an offense around Losman, Evans, and Mcgahee and two out of the three are not on the team anymore. But he never got Losman a second target or an offensive line or a tight end. Than the defense fell apart due to the Pat Williams mistake and we were left with nothing but wasted time and very little talent on the team. TD left the team the way he inherited it.
At least Marv Put the team in a better position than when he left. Despite some of his mistakes.
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Stats without context are meaningless. A few good points on this subject (namely the Bill James interview on 60 Minutes on Sunday) have been raised on the PFRA messageboard.
For those of you who don't know, the OP of that thread (Bob Carroll) is a legend in the industry. He and Pete Palmer have done extensive work with trying to redefine the passer rating system, as well as looking at other areas of football analysis. Tod Maher, Sean Lahman and others have also done extensive work in this area. I highly suggest everyone read the following books to get some perspective in how to treat football statistics:
I have read the Hidden Game of Football and I took time to read that thread and I think that it rings true. Football stats have to be kept in context to the players surroundings/teammates because the stats are heavily influenced by out side influences. Another good read or glance is pro football prospectus it is the complete guide to all the new stats used in the NFL.
I think the best stat never used is the tendencies of the quarterback to what part of the field he completes most of his passes . The best QB's throw all over the field and the worse ones usually throw heavily short passes and screens. Edwards threw more in the middle and longer length of the field more than he did his rookie year. He showed improvement but has a long way to go but TO should help that out.
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When does a NFL team win the SB and move?? You can charge more for the tickets if you field a winning team, especially a SB champion team. Winning it all keeps the team in Buffalo, let's do it.
Oh I thought they were just tanking it over the last 10 years as a plot to move the team only they did not expect the undying loyalty of the fans. So they give us a crappy coach and a team so incredibly below average just so Ralph could increase the value of his team. I know how easy it is for this team to just go out there and win a super bowl they just don't want to.
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I don't know how good Belichick is. He built a rep for two things one great game planning and developing players out of nowhere. But spygate kinda puts into suspect on the game planning element. As for player development he has kinda been so so in recent years. Besides Mayo who was a top ten pick his drafts over the last three to four years have not produced much talent.
In 2005 and 2006 the Pats were good but not great they made the playoffs and won their division but they seemed to be on the downside of a dynasty good but on the down turn. Than in 2007 they made a bunch of big moves they traded a second round pick for Welker and they got a steal in Randy Moss. Than they spent big money on Addadalius thomas in their front seven.
So it was big trades of draft choices and big money free agents that revived the team. Its not that they had third and fourth round picks ready to step up. Hell they haven't developed many first or second round picks.
To sum up I think Belichick is a great coach who keeps a lot of Cap room so that he can add a big player if need be he also still a good game planner. But he is not the best coach ever and his recent draft mediocrity and spygate prove that. So great but not as great as we thought.
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I think one should take great heed in what that stats say. But they should be used as a tool as opposed to in baseball, where it has become entirely statistical. Certain items, such as how often you should throw vs. pass on 1st down is valid. However, if a team were to always throw on first down because statistics tell you, the opposing team with ultimately negate it since they will play the appropriate defense.
Stats in football could be very dangerous. A team could learn how to exploit weaknesses in the opposing team when analyzing performance metrics. But it still comes down to who shows up that day and whether the players perform.
From a fans perspective we need stats because i cant look at how good every player on each team is but because the nature of the game is one where stats have circumstances surrounding them. I like your approach but I think coaches use film more than ever to gameplan instead of metric stats
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Yeah i like the Bengals to have a good year. Carson Palmer as well as the additions to the offense should take them to the playoffs. I like the defense which was not bad towards the end of last year and they improved the defense as well. I also see the Browns and Ravens to finish in the 6-10 to 7-9 range. They have a tough task in playing the Steelers twice but they might grab the wild card.
As far as the lions they will be improved they will become a 6-10 to 7-9 team which i know we think is bad but Detroit just want to get out from the gutter and I think that Culpepper should start for them for most of the year. Not only should stafford take some time to get better from the mental stand point but if you play the veteran for most of the year it sends a good message to the team that they want to do as much as possible to win.
Geeky John Clayton has Bills as one team "set to shock"
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
All these look out for the Bills threads reminds me of all those picks going into last year. Last year we were picked to shock a lot of people and early on those picks looked good but we all know how that turned out.
Over the great drought of the 2000's there have been at least five or six seasons where we were picked to shock and get into the playoffs. The Bills this year are the epitome of the typical mid-level NFL team. They have the same amount or close to the same amount of talent as 70% of the NFL. They are better than 15% of the NFL and worse than 15% of the NFL.
Like most teams the Bills season depends on three factors. One the injury bug, two the in game luck factor, and three just the talent clicking. If the bills can avoid massive injuries, get a lucky call/bounce that swings a game or two our way, and have these new additions work out than we will be 10-6 and make the playoffs. If not we will finish 6-10 to 8-8 or worse if all of those things don't go our way.
With all that being said I like this team but it also depends on our coaching if DJ can just avoid making big mistakes and if our OC can maximize all of our weapons. While I know the coaching staff doesn't exactly inspire confidence there have been worse staffs to make the playoffs.