billsfan89

I would say about 85% of throws are less than 20 yards or blatant throw aways. BUT that 15-20% of throws that go deep down field opens up ease of the other 80-85% of throws. The reason Mahomes and other elite QB's chew up defenses is because it becomes pick your poison he will be patient and dink and dunk you or if you tighten up on him he can beat you downfield. Even Brady who was much more of a precision passer the last 7 or 8 years still would go downfield just enough when teams were exclusively looking to clamp down his short game. I will fully agree that Josh needs to improve his short and medium range game, he made significant progress last year but he still has a ways to go. But Josh regressed in his long range game last season. In 2018 Josh's long range game was solid, still not where it needed to be but he was at least solid in the long range. In 2019 I think he worked a lot on getting his touch in the shorter and mid-range game up by taking some heat off the ball but that also messed up his calibration on the long range game. I hope in 2020 he figures out how to polish up his short range game and recalibrate his long range game. It is that balance he needs to find in his game.

The deep ball and long medium range passes are what separate the good QB's from the great ones. You have to be able to hit passes downfield in order to keep defenses honest. If you are only able to work the short and intermediate range you end up like Chad Pennington where your success is always going to be capped because great defenses will force you to beat them downfield. Unlike a Chad Pennington Allen has the arm strength to make any throw. He has to be good enough at the deep ball to keep teams honest enough to keep the short and intermediate routes open.

Faulk was the most annoying player ever. Any time the Pats were struggling to move the ball he would get them a couple of critical first downs in clutch moments to set up a winning field goal or grind out the clock. I would be shocked if Beane trades up from 54 unless it is a minor trade up 3-6 spots. I think given the need for critical depth and youth at several positions (DE, Secondary, LB, WR, and RB) trading away significant picks to make a major trade up could end up costing the Bills the ability to plug smaller holes on the roster in the mid to late rounds.

Goff was given a deal after putting together back to back very good to great seasons in 2017 to 2018. They just paid him early but at least given the context there was some sense to it. Derek Carr's contract actually makes sense. His aav is 25 million in 2017 which while a high end contract wasn't too bad. He constantly throws for well over 4000 yards, is super accurate, and has a TD to INT ratio that is usually 2 to 1 or better. He is an upper mid-level QB getting paid like one (and the fact that the deal was front loaded makes his current 20 million dollar cap hit better.) But I agree why pay guys like Tannehill and Cousins so much? Cousins is at best an above average QB who is getting paid like a top 10 QB with an insane guarantee. Who was paying 30 million for Tannehill on the open market? I would rather have lasic surgery Jamis for 10 million than Tannehill or even Tyrod plus 23 million in cap space than Tannehill. I think teams need to start playing hardball with QB's who aren't top players. Let a QB walk if some other team wants to commit 30 million to a guy who can't throw for over 100 yards in a playoff game. That's why I think the Cowboys were and are smart to franchise Dak, why pay him 30+ million if you can't win with a team constructed around him and a massive cap hit dedicated to him.

I remember thinking QB contracts were getting crazy when they eclipsed the 20 million mark around 10 years ago. Of course I did not fully grasp the percentage of cap concept and was just looking at the raw numbers. Now we are well into the 30 million aav range and easily going to get well into the 40 million aav range once Mahomes gets his deal and the cap goes up with more revenue coming in from the 17th game, 2 extra playoff games, and various other squeezings of revenues.

Weird signing, not sure he was ever reinstated.

I agree with your assessment that they should transfer the slate of games from Thursday to Monday, that would fix the tremendous problem of the games being bad. I guess my point is that the issues with MNF are fixable whereas almost no matter what you do (unless you mandate the teams playing on Thursday's have a bye the week before) the short turnaround for TNF is almost always going to be an issue. Whereas MNF doesn't have that same huge logistical barrier, they just need to improve the selection of games and the broadcast. I know hardcore football fans who really love TNF for the reasons you stated. I think TNF is really loved by the hardcore fan as long as the quality of the games is decent. BUT I think for casual fans and the quality of the product TNF should go.

I think the players would much rather play on Monday than on Thursday for that reason alone I would just keep MNF and ditch the Thursday games. That's the best argument against the Thursday games is that the players really express disdain for it. Monday being on a 24 hour difference is something no player has expressed concerns over. I also argue that unlike the Thursday games where a lot of the play is sloppy due to lack of practice and a quick turnaround the issue with the Monday games not being of the highest quality is fixable by getting them a better slate of games and improving the broadcast.

Sanders was a solid choice but not sure how much he has left at best he has 1 maybe 2 good seasons left. Diggs will turn 27 in 2020, he has 3-4 prime seasons left if he doesn't get hurt and could probably be a high end WR2 into his 30's as his game will age well. Yes it did cost the team more to acquire Diggs but hey go for it.

The Monday night time slot is much better for the NFL week and the players than the Thursday night slot. But while I will agree that the Thursday game last season was in general better than the Monday Night games; but over the past 5 years I think the Thursday game has rarely been good (Usually it is typically a sloppy game that is a blowout), whereas the Monday night game has been more consistent despite not having marquee matchups anymore. I will agree that both have paled in comparison to the Sunday night game. I think that the Monday game serves as a fun final NFL game to cap a week. Whereas the Thursday game happen only 3 days later and isn't an effective way to kick off an NFL week. The decline of Monday Night football stems from Sunday Night Football getting the "A slate" of games and the Thursday game coming just a few days later (thus eliminating the whole last chance to see football for 5-6 days thing.) ESPN's poor presentation has not helped either. If I were in charge of the NFL I would gut the Thursday game (Except for Thanksgiving and opening week) and focus on rebuilding MNF as a big prime time event. I would try to keep SNF as big of a deal as it is but try to force ESPN to make broadcast improvements while getting as good of a slate of games as possible. Maybe I am just antiquated but I never really enjoyed TNF.

I think the growth in the USA is nearly impossible at a high level. How much more popular could football get in the USA? I am sure you could pull in some more casual fans but overall the growth in the USA only comes from milking the existing fans by putting on more games and creating more of the product. Whereas American football has gained a foothold in the UK and Mexico both markets that combine for over 100 million people. I also think that Germany is another spot where growth in it is possible. I don't know where else you could grow the game but international expansion in terms of marketing is a must if the NFL wishes to grow revenue meaningfully. As far as officiation of games? I agree the NFL needs to find a way to cut down on flags. But what exactly can they do to cut down on flags? What penalties do they call too much of? I legitimately don't know. Roughing the passer and QB protections are needed (I don't think allowing more borderline hits on QB's really adds to the value of the game) but they could be relaxed in a way where defenders know what they can and can't do more clearly. There are far too many rules that put too much onus on the defender to just know how to ease up on a QB in live play. I also don't know if "under officiating" the games makes them better. Seattle's legion of boom basically mugged receivers taking advantage of the NFL officials not wanting to "over officiate the game" and they were a slog to watch defensively as their pass defense amounted to pulling down receivers over and over again. Sure they were talented and still good in the years after but they went from an all time great defense to just a great defense because they couldn't take advantage of the way the rules are enforced. I think that you run the risk of coaches and players taking advantage of rules that are more lax in enforcement. But then you don't want to call flags on every play either?

Burrow just turned 23 whereas Allen is about to turn 24 in May. Your point is valid but it isn't like they are the same age exactly.

The Thursday games are rarely good in my opinion. The players hate the 3 day turnaround, the games are often sloppy quality wise and they are rarely compelling matchups. MNF has been hurt by the fact that SNF took the best games when MNF moved to ESPN and the fact that it went from the only nationally televised game each week to now one of three makes it feel less special overall. Thursday games also ruin fantasy football in my opinion because it is a constant thing you have to monitor as opposed to just putting in your waiver claims Tuesday and adjusting your roster Wednesday and then you are good until Sunday. Monday being only one day removed from Sunday doesn't alter the players ability to prepare for games. I think MNF is a salvageable product whereas TNF is an abomination.

I think fatigue and overexpose is real. Monday Night Football is not really a relevant game anymore and I think the 3rd Sunday game along with Thursday games have been a big factor in that. I think hardcore football fans love more football. However the hardcore fan is going to watch no matter what. I think that growing revenue by just making more of the product for hardcore fans isn't a sustainable business model. They should focus their efforts on improving their efforts to get international expansion and casual fans as opposed to just squeezing more out of their existing fan base.

That was from the Spike TV version they did which was more adult oriented haha. But the Nick show while a bit more risqué for a cartoon is mostly good for kids to watch (depending on how old and to what degree you let them watch more risqué stuff.)

I wish he would expand his game but some guys are just athletes who can't for whatever reason expand their skillset and as the old adage says you can't teach speed. I think his current value is as a WR 5 who has a few plays designed for him with the added value of being a backup kick returner.

Monday Night football used to be the event of the NFL week. Now thanks to Sunday night football and the Thursday night game (among other factors to be fair) Monday night football is an after thought. The fact that the NBA, NHL and MLB regular season games are often overlooked shows you that constantly playing games and putting your product 4-6 days a week on national TV can severely overexpose and water down how important games feel. Even on Thanksgiving no one really cares for the 3rd game. They want to see the Cowboys and Lions games early in the day and then just pass out or enjoy the day with family. To me personally I used to love the NFL a lot more before the Thursday game. It used to be that after Monday Night football the NFL would take some time and reset. Tuesday you would do a recap of the Monday game and power rankings/early previews. Wednesday to Friday were just building anticipation previewing the weeks matchup and Saturday was college. Now with the Thursday game the NFL is omni-present and it just waters down the specialness of NFL football to have it on every 2 or 3 days. It does long term damage to the brand in my opinion because if something is always on it is never on. I guess my gripe is that the increasing of the playoffs, Thursday games, adding of a 17th regular season game, and all these things don't expand the appeal of the NFL to the more casual audience but just simply milks the hardcore fan who is already buying the product. It is just a lazy cash grab one that could be very short sighted.

Cincy better get a number one pick in 2021 from Miami in this deal. Pick 1 for 5, 18, and 26 along with mid round picks isn't good enough value. If I were Cincy I would in a heartbeat take picks 5, 18, and 26 along with Miami or Houston's 2021 1st and Miami's 5th in 2020. I think Burrow is more of a Sam Bradford type QB, low ceiling high floor type QB. In a lot of drafts like 2018 he wouldn't be the top pick. If you can get 3 premium selections plus pocket a future 1st and get a mid-round pick or two tossed for a good but not great QB prospect I would take it. Cincy should just avoid drafting a QB and set their sights on building a more complete roster with that boat load of picks. And having an extra first in 2021 gets you another ticket at drafting Trevor Lawrence.

I thought from a competitive standpoint the 12 out of 32 with byes for the top 2 in the conference was a perfect playoff format that valued the regular season, finishing high in your conference and not making it too difficult to make the playoffs but not too easy. I also don't think that adding 2 more games to wildcard weekend is really going to draw that many more eyes. Saturday and Sunday already have 2 games each that weekend, does having a 3rd game each day really do anything for the casual fan who probably doesn't want to watch 9.5 hours a day of football in back to back days? I think that much like Thursday night football overexposure and fatigue is a real thing. The Thursday game is only really liked by some hardcore fans and isn't worth the overexposure and watering down of the product. The playoffs having 6 games in one weekend is just overkill and something that will only appeal to hardcore fans. I wish the NFL would just pour more effort into expanding into other markets (which they do but they could be doing a better job of) as opposed to overexposing their product in their most profitable market.

In my mind I hope a good DE is there at pick 54. Edge rush is such an older group for far too critical a position.

Mac brings speed to the offense and in the NFL speed alone can make a couple of plays here and there. Speed is also something you can design specific plays around which adds a small dimension to the offense. To me he is a solid gadget play guy. 2 to 3 touches a game with some sweep fakes and other diversions thrown in.

The NFL should focus their efforts on growing the sport in the UK, Germany and Mexico as opposed to over expanding it in the USA. Sad to see the short sighted corporate thinking that these owners are engaged in.

No such thing as a lock in the NFL. Injuries are too far of a variable to ever say any team is a lock. BUT if the team stays relatively healthy and Allen doesn't regress significantly I don't see how the team would not get to 9 wins and a likely playoff spot. However I do hate the new playoff format. 1 bye and 3 wildcards is stupid. The old format was perfect, it weighted the regular season perfectly and had the right amount of teams make it.

Call me crazy but I side with the players putting their health and well-being on the line over billionaires playing with a toy they acquired. I agree that we can't jump to conclusions but I think it would likely be the 32 billionaires who would try and pull a fast one over a union of players in the several hundreds with more scattered priorities and representation.

The thing that stands out to me about the construction of the roster is that there is no glaring weakness and both lines have excellent depth. I think for the first time in a long time the draft is needed only purely to address depth along the roster. Even in 2015 after a strong off-season with a great defense in place (At that point we hadn't known how poorly Rex would ***** the defense) and a lot of additions to the offense the team still had issues along the right side of the offensive line and the plan at QB was unclear. But in 2020 going into the draft I don't see any massive non-depth needs on the roster. I think DE, WR, RB, DB, and LB units could have more depth and youth but overall I don't see the glaring needs that exist. My ideal draft would be to take a good DE in round 2 to round out the D-line and add some youth to a mostly older unit (Outside of Ed and Henry Phillips there isn't much younger players there) and then take a WR in round 3 (No depth behind BBD and Beasley and Brown are North of 30) and a RB in round 4. With their 5th round pick they can find a CB, Safety, or LB just to add some depth there. I don't think they need depth along the O-line (You have 4 legit backups there and you can always sign Waddle to compete in camp) or at TE (I think TE is a somewhat weak spot on the roster but I am fine with it.) Overall the construction of the roster is great.