There have been a number of analysis done on defer vs receive. The below analysis says that receiving the ball in the 2nd half results in an extra point on average plus a 12% chance of "stealing" a possession.
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/opening-kickoff-receive-or-defer/#:~:text=Deciding whether to receive or,of games on the margins.&text=A lot of factors play,half when given the chance.