Magox

I didn't know where to post this and didn't want to start a new thread. Thought this was kinda cool.

Such a fantastic player and even better human being. He and Poyer were instrumental into turning this organization around, helping to build an enduring culture that will stay with this organization for the foreseeable future. Thank you Micah!

They can make lots of moves that are reasonable to free up over $60 million for 2025 Extensions: Josh Allen $10m James Cook $3m Rousseau $10m Restructures: (These are players who I envision remaining with the team through the end of their contract) Dion Dawkins $10m Ed Oliver $9m Cut Post June 1: Von Miller $17m Daquan $5.5m Cut salary candidate: Dawson Knox $3m You guys can use this site and look at the possibilities https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills If pressed they could free up another $15-$20m more. I’ve identified here about $67m worth which for me would be reasonable moves.

It’s not a boundary wide receiver centric sort of offense. Which is why Buffalo will not go into FA and spend gobs of money on one, the ROI wouldn’t make sense. Also, reading some of these comments complaining about the offense and pining for KC’s offense is L O L. Buffalo averaged 3 points per drive which is historically one of the most efficient scoring offenses EVER! Buffalo had less sacks and turnover combination than any team in decades. KC gave up 29 or more points only twice this year and both of those times were against the Bills. And all year everyone criticized KC’s lack of dynamism on offense which averaged only 22.6 points a game, nearly 8 points less than the Chiefs and people want that? Some of you guys are silly

Even though there is this unreasonable narrative among some of the faithful here at TBD that the offense lacks firepower the fact is that the Bills averaged 3 points per drive this year on offense which puts it at one of the most productive scoring offenses ever in the NFL. The offense is for the most part set for next year, there are no splash moves that are necessary. With another year of development from Keon, Shakir continuing to grow, Kincaid who I absolutely believe will bounce back in a big way and having Samuels and Mack Hollins (I hope we bring him back) in their second year along with Cook at RB and a top tier offensive line, the team will do very well again next year. Here is a fun fact, the Chiefs who have a top defense only gave up 29 points or more twice in all of this year including the playoffs. Guess what teams they were? Thats right, Buffalo got both of them. Yeah, the problem isn’t offense. Use one of your premium draft picks at WR and that’s plenty. The defense is where the changes need to be made.

There could be variances in the supply of players in certain positions that could alter the trajectory of valuations, and honestly the main problem with the inflation of valuations in those positions is more of a philosophical problem in how these negotiations between agents and organizations take place. You could have an elite playmaker get a contract and be the top paid guy in that position who in turn sets the market. Then the very next guy who is set to get his contract who maybe is a 8-12 guy in the league at the very same position who is “next in line” could end up getting a higher payout or comparable to the top guy. Thats a problem for organizations who are trying to build something special, which is why teams like the Chiefs would rather have those sort of guys just walk rather than pay them. Too much emphasis is placed on position rather than playmaking ability. Don’t get me wrong, certain positions should start off at a higher baseline than others but the idea that Dak Prescott is getting paid 37% more than Josh Allen who signed his contract just 3 years before Dak’s just shows you how out of whack the inflation in contracts in some of these positions have become. These organizations too often are willing to pay out these overinflated contracts for fear of FOMO. Generally speaking top end WR’s are paid too high and top end RB’s too low. Gabe Davis signed a 3 year $39m deal and Saquon was paid less than that. And the Giants weren’t even willing to offer Saquon even that, that’s how crazy valuations are right now.

Just like how RB’s have been severely undervalued which we will begin to see RB’s trend higher than the current baseline, WR’s are currently overvalued. The top 3 teams in the AFC have had lots of success without overpaying at the position. Chase will most likely get $40m a year, Higgins who is a top 10 WR will get $30m a year. At some point there will be a correction, once teams realize that if they have an elite QB that they don’t have to pay these overly inflated prices for a WR to get good passing production.

If the Bills were to go for another outside WR (which I don't think is the preferred path), Kupp would have been my target. Even though he has been most used from the slot, he can beat defenders from the boundary as well. He's also an excellent blocker, incredible hands, fantastic route runner and he's proven that he can perform when it counts.

History would say that they have been philosophically speaking, incrementalists who do have a penchant to swing for the fences (Miller, Diggs). I do think we saw signs of them towards the end of the year trying more man to man coverages, but they just don't have the personnel to run it effectively and once Benford was out for the game, the defense was severely limited in how aggressive they could play. My hopes are that they make more of an emphasis on press man to man coverages and blitzing next year, which the first signs of that will be who they pick up in FA or in the draft at that position.

I would love Holland but the projected contract for Holland is for $18-$20m a year where as Reed is projected to be around $14-$15m a year. If you look at the passes Mahomes made, it was the quick passes against the corners Kair/Rasul that killed the Bills. There was one TD that Damar was covering Worthy where he was too slow to make the play but for the most part the weakness were the corners getting beat. We need corners that can press and provide tight coverage for 3 seconds to allow the D Line and blitzers to make a difference. If your DB consistently gets beat within 2.25 seconds which was Mahomes average time to throw then it doesn’t matter if you have Myles Garrett or whoever. Got to solve the other side opposite of Benford in a meaningful manner

I would love Holland, good against the run and pass, he's a leader, very competitive and a playmaker. The only problem is that he will most likely cost somewhere in the $18 - $20M a year range.

The DE’s Extend Rousseau, every year he’s been in the pros he’s improved. This has been his best year rushing the passer and he’s still young at 24 years old. I think you would see him continue to improve. Extend Smoot, good serviceable depth Epenesa is solid and improved against the run this year and he with an increased role could get you 6-8 sacks. Solomon popped some promise, I think if he could develop he could be a pass pressure specialist. Then use one of your 3 premium picks at DE and hope we hit on that pick and draft another with one of your mid to late rounders. At the DT spot you have Oliver and hope that Dwayne Carter develops, he was really beginning to come into his own before the injury. Go into FA and get someone like a Calais Campbell who is still playing at a high level specially against the run. Bring back Phillips who I thought played well and then use one of your three premium picks on a run stuffing DT and draft a second one with a mid to late rounder. I think this is all doable.

Extending Rousseau, Benford, Cook, Josh Allen restructuring Dawkins, Brown releasing Von Miller and Daquan frees up $65m towards the cap next year. Plus with the expected huge salary cap increases over the next couple years, I think it’s a lot more manageable than people may think.

Here is what I know, Tim Settle and Poona Ford both were lackluster when they played here and then went on to the Texans and Chargers and then they played at above average levels. I don’t know why that happened just that it did.

I hear ya, I think this is a position where you do pay more than what most teams pay for that position grouping. Right now WR’s are the second highest paid position grouping. It’s very possible Jamar Chase will get $40m a year when he signs. The guys who defend those guys are CB’s, it makes sense to spend money to defend those guys. Also, spending about $35m a year between both your boundary CB’s is not a matter of having two higher end capable guys out there playing defense, but having guys like that allows your defense a lot of flexibility to do things that the Bills have never had the luxury to do which is blitz a lot more often and have lots of guys play close to the line of scrimmage which can be very effective in disguising coverages. Plus the idea that this will tie up a lot of money in this grouping and handcuff the team I don’t believe is accurate. The salary cap will go up $10m -$20m this year alone and probably $20-$40m over the next two years. Signing both these guys would have a low cap hit next year and a relatively manageable one two years from now, which would be easily absorbed by the increase in the cap.

That is very true, I myself believe that in order to compete against this playoff Chiefs team, you have to have both your boundary guys be able to maintain tight coverage for a minimum of 3 seconds, this allows the defense to utilize various pressure packages which in turn dictates play. Right now, the Chiefs are dictating everything and the combo of Reid and Mahomes are able to easily to make plays on their first read. I’m convinced that for the Bills to have any chance at holding the Chiefs below 25 points that they need this and I think they should make a good strong offer, you could offer $60m over 4 years with $45m of it guaranteed. The higher guaranteed money could allow a slightly lower overall contract. I’ve been thinking about this a good bit and I’m convinced that this is the route.

That is exactly how I viewed it as well. The defense as a whole fell apart after Salah left and honestly I think their will to play at a high level disappeared once the bottom dropped out

Sport trac has him at 4 year $58m and Profocus has him at 3 year $42m https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/market-value/_/id/25243/dj-reed I think these make sense

Salary cap is expected to go up $10 -$20m next year and with all the new streaming deals and overseas games and added exposure to the NFL, I think you will continue to see hefty increases over the next few years. Any signings or extensions won’t really be felt on a significant level for 2-3 years from now. The Bills could afford to put $35 m a year on one of the most critical positions in the game and I think more than anything that weakness was exposed vs the Chiefs and Ravens or for that matter throughout the year on third downs.

Correct, that is the Bills M.O to pay one and the other be a draft pick or a mid level FA guy. And it hasn’t worked, I hope they change that. Some team may overpay for Reed and I could see why but I think both he and Benford could sign for around $35-38m a year and the flexibility it would give this defense would make it worth it.

I don’t think DJ Reed will be $20m but closer to $13-$15m a year. That you can afford

They have to play more man to man and blitz than they have in the past. The best defenses are doing this with success more often than in the recent past.

He does draw a decent bit of flags but that also speaks to how aggressive he plays WR’s. If he was elite he would cost $25m a year. He’s not elite but he is good and effective which is why he can be had for a lot less than $25m a year.

Here is Kair and Rasul both getting easily cooked because of either how far off they played off the WR’s or when they did play press man were easily defeated. No matter who you have rushing the passer on these plays it wouldn’t have made a difference.

For me his comp is Tyreek Hill. His explosiveness and speed will be right at the top in the league, his game day speed matches his timed and track speed. He has the ability to run some routes very well and I could envision him his rookie year not just being some guy who primarily runs go sort of routes but he could be used in the screen game. He attacks defenses with violence and if he gets through one seam or breaks a tackle siyonara, he’s off to the races. Bills like to play a lot of the 4 X 1 formations, more so than any team in the league I believe and Amari would be the 1 isolated on the outside. This usually on man to man coverages forces either a 1 on 1 with the DB or draws a safety to help with the over the top passes, he’s the sort of guy that could excel on those sort of plays. Tyreek Hill was very raw and had drop issues himself coming out of college. A guy with this sort of ability would not be around with a top pick if he didn’t have drop issues. It’s a bit of a gamble but I think the potential upside justifies it.