Magox

How so? You said “political back patting”. I’m not making any of this political. I’m pointing out the facts and IT IS A LOGISTICAL ISSUE. Do you honestly believe that Dr Fauci, Dr Birx and the CDC director are engaging in some sort of double speak? You think they are politically backpatting as you are alleging? I trust what they are saying much more so than whoever is saying that there isn’t enough testing for phase 1. Which was what I was talking about. Thats what you responded to. I wasn’t making any other broader point than the trusted health experts unequivocally making the case they believed that there is enough testing for phase 1. It reminds me about the hospital bedA and ventilator debate. Remember? The same people who were booting and hollering about not having enough are the same ones sounding the alarm bells on the testing. Dr Birx and for that matter Trump pretty much always pushed back on that notion and they ended up being right. Not only were they right but those that were complaining weren’t even close to being right. Thankfully Also, Im not sure what makes you believe you understand the situation better than they do when it comes to testing?

That’s not what was said in the presser. FEMA director said that in 93% of the country that there is testing capacity within a 10 square mile radius. It’s not a “political back pat”. It’s clear that by the sound of what you are implying and what many others believe that this seems to be a federal government issue. It’s not This is a state and local government logistical issue. It’s up to state and local governments to fill in the gaps. They know their states logistical hurdles better than the federal government. It’s the federal governments role to provide support. The idea that they will micromanage the entire operation is absurd. Which is why the Federal Government is allowing state and local governments to begin Phase one on their own timelines.

He said it. It’s a direct quote. If you are not going to acknowledge that this is a direct quote out of his mouth then don’t bother responding. I don’t want to waste any more time on trying to convince someone who denies 100% verifiable facts

Here you go, listen for yourself Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government's leading infectious diseases expect, said testing for infection would need to be essentially instant, and frequent, to guarantee with certainty that someone isn't currently infected, which is why antibody testing and tracing will be important. But while testing for coronavirus is a key piece of tackling the virus, Fauci warned it's just one piece of it. "The emphasis we've been hearing is that testing is everything and it isn't," Fauci said. However, he also suggested there would be "enough tests to allow us to take this country safely to Phase 1." So either you didn’t watch the presser from yesterday or your inability to properly digest what you are hearing is on full display. Only one of the two. Which is it?

Hmmm. Should I take “Scraps” opinion who only posts dim-witted partisan posts all day long or should I trust Dr Fauci, the CDC director and Dr Birx who are some of the most world renowned health experts in the world? Tough decision

The point of the post went right over your head. The lede shouldn’t be about these things it should be that Dr Fauci, Dr Birx, the CDC director and head of FEMA all said that we have enough tests for phase 1 and that solely looking at tests as Dr. Fauci put is not the way to go about it. That is the lede. Not this other BS

More at the link. . Now this is treachery

What part of the criteria are all states lacking? I must be missing what you are looking at? CDC director went over how they would do the contact tracing. He says they have a sophisticated system that sort of works like a weather radar and from that system they’d attack it. I don’t know exactly how that would work but that’s what was said. And this is what the lede or takeaway should be out of this presser. But it won’t be, the media’s lede will be how Trump is supporting a government insurrection in the state of VA. And Michigan

Correct, however If accurate it would show a mortality rate well below what was initially believed to be. This would show somewhere between a .09% -.14% mortality rate which would be not that far off from the common flu. But the Risk of lethality of the Virus wouldn’t any longer be so much the mortality rate but rather the rate of contagion which if this study is to be believed would be many multiples more than the flu. And that would be the greater risk. Of course this is just one small study but it does fall in line with the antibody study recently done in Germany. I don’t believe the 25-50% asymptomatic assumptions that some of the health experts were stating will hold up.

I'm not sure that's how it's calculated. I think there are more variables involved in attempting to extrapolate the rate of contagion.

New York has around 225,000 confirmed cases. This test is showing 50-85 times greater may have it. Imagine if you have let's say 25 times greater. That would be over 5,625,000 cases. You would be getting pretty close to herd immunity levels. That would be good news on that front, but I think what would be even better news is that the mortality rate would be dramatically lower than the confirmed test rate count. Which based off that data, you could change up public policy. I think there is a decent chance that what might be the most dangerous part of this VIRUS is how contagious it is. It could end up being 10 times more contagious than the regular flu.

@shoshin Interesting antibody study out of Santa Clara California 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases??? It's a small test of 3300 people. But Dr. Fauci was talking about 50-75%% could be asymptomatic cases. I don't think we will end up seeing an 85-fold asymptomatic cases throughout the country, but I think this as the Germany test are showing that there is growing evidence that there are many more people that have been infected with the virus then what is being reported. Which I think is more good than bad news. It would mean that the mortality rates are lower than initially feared. I initially said that I believed it was going to end up being between .25%-.5% when it's all said and done. I'm leaning more towards .2% - .4% If we can get a really good grasp of the true mortality rate before October and it falls below .4%. Then I think we need to seriously rethink our social distancing policies.

I don't think that's why it's been tame. Trump has changed his style over the past two briefings. He hasn't looked to get in skirmishes with journalists and he has not allowed reporters for the most part not followup with their questions. He also has answered the questions directly with rapid fire sort of responses and moves on quickly to the next question. These reporters will never feel like they have had "their asses handed to them". They believe they are winning every single day. They are feeding their left wing base (their viewers) and that's what their corporate bosses want them to do.

I think they are going to ask him about Cuomo complaining about tests and money. And they will ask him what his tweets about wanting to "liberate" some of these states such as Michigan, Virginia and Minnesota. It will either be contentious or he will shrug it off and not really address it.

Looks like Trump is on a full blown tweet storm. @Deranged Rhino

That's not what I was talking about.

So if everyone remembers it wasn’t too long ago where the media was wondering why the Trump administration didn’t unilaterally shut down the country. Then when Trump was musing about the possibility of opening it up and him having authority to do so he was lambasted. Now that he has backed off of it and set the guidelines and is leaving it up to the states I decided to check out the coverage from the mainstream and they are all basically parroting the same thing. “Trump is punting the decision to the states” or Trump is telling the states “You are on your own”. They don’t even hide their bias any longer.

This was another good briefer for him and the country. I actually felt a little more optimistic about the economy after hearing this briefer.

That's the risk...And the standard shouldn't be if there is an outbreak. For me, the standard should be can the curve stay flattened down enough so that the hospitals can keep up with the patients. That should be the standard and criteria.

I appreciate the thoughtful response. I think we are pretty much on the same page on a number of things. I think what is lacking here from many of the policy makers (politicians in charge) is an overall criteria on when to reopen up their economies. The focus is being viewed I think too much in a COVID vacuum. The residual effects which arguably are even larger than the virus itself are not taken into consideration enough. Evers, the governor of Wisconsin stated this as his reasoning for extending the stay-at-home until the 26th. I see this as the governor abdicating his role to the public health officials. If you only listen to the public health officials then they will ALWAYS err on the side of caution. It's up to the executive branch to consider all the factors. Wisconsin supposedly already hit their peak. Now they are talking about closing it down for an additional 40 days???? WTF! On the other hand, Ohio is now announcing that they are planning on reopening on the 1st of May.  There have been more than twice as many deaths in Ohio than Wisconsin and their peak supposedly was about 1 week after Wisconsin's. There is a clear schism that is beginning to unfold between Democratic and Republican Governors. If you closely listen to the Democrats they are all basically repeating the same thing from Biden all the way down which is that "we are going to rely on the science and health experts". I could be wrong, but I do not think this will be politically advantageous for them and I think people are going to get tired of this. If you are from Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which are all led by Democrats and all of these states are extending their stay-at-home orders and you see your Midwest neighbor Ohio, deciding to open things up in a responsible manner, how are you going to feel? I would suspect there will be a lot of people from these states (which Trump won) that will be pretty pissed seeing Ohio beginning to normalize while they still stuck in their homes.

Wisconsin to extend their stay-at-home order until May Freaking 26th They supposedly hit their peak on April 5th. That is just absolutely nuts. I expect Wisconsin citizens to protest this in a big way.

I am very eager to see how things unfold. I see how the PA. state senate passed something asking for the Democratic Governor to begin lifting the Stay-at-home order and gradually phase in the economy following CDC's eventual guidelines. He is threatening to Veto that. I have a feeling this is going to be a common theme, Democratic Governors extending stay-at-home orders and slow to restart their phase in's of the economy vs the red states. I think this will be the next political battle field similar to what we are seeing in KY, NC and Michigan. I don't know, but my sense is that the governors who are perceived as slow and overly cautious are going to be playing a lot of defense over the next couple months.

It will. But that's not the point. It's a true statement to say that every day that they don't replenish the funds is a day where more businesses will permanently shudder. So to have a blase attitude with no urgency is something that should be highlighted. Because there is urgency involved here and businesses are at stake.

He should be hammering this in stark terms during the briefers. He made mention of it yesterday but didn’t put nearly enough oomph into it. it should be something like: Every day Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer hold the PPP hostage is a day where millions of Americans are suffering. This is a popular bill that has already been passed and agreed upon by both parties and now they are holding it hostage. Americans are suffering and all Nancy and Chuck have to do is put it up for a vote and help the engine of our economy. He just needs to hammer this over and over and over until they feel the political wrath of the public.

It's kinda funny. I just posted a link to an article of the PPP loan program running out and to call your congress critter to add more money to it on my FB page. And I had a lefty from California that just responded to me about 5 minutes ago mentioning how he is self-employed and that he will keep doing contracting work no matter what anyone says and they'd have to drag him to jail to stop. Let me copy and paste it: That's not a righty, that is a full blown lefty who builds burning man structures year in and year out. Now that's just anecdotal of course. But when people were told not to work for safety reasons, the country by and large went along with it. But as the pain begins to set in, the restlessness, the restrictions on liberty and economic hardship. People will rebel against governments that they believe are being overly cautious at their expense. It could go the other way too, but I don't see that happening only unless if you have governments recklessly reopening in ways that cause mass outbreaks. I think people understand there will be some outbreaks and people will be reasonable about that, not all, the partisans will always be partisans. But I don't see that happening.