Magox

I do think Kyle Dugger is on the radar. Dugger is a potential game impacting playmaker on the defensive side of the ball. He's got elite speed, athleticism and explosion. He's 6'2 and around 220 and has soft hands, wrecks people and produces lots of turnovers. He would be used often and in a variety of ways. He could end up being one of the steals of the draft. I could see him being an ALL pro with the Ravens.

By the way, these modeling experts suck. They first estimated north of a million people would die...Then it went down to 260,000, then to 100,000 then to 68,000 and now at 60,000. We are already at 50,000. I don't see how we don't hit 100,000 by the fall.

New York City has definitely got their own challenges. But if around close to 50% of NY city has contracted the Virus by the time October rolls around, which I think there is a real possibility that will be the case, then that could end up serving as a huge transmission shield by the time the next Corona Flu season comes. Not to mention we should already have some proven therapeutics, better detection systems, contract tracing, etc etc. I believe in American ingenuity and I believe we will be up to the task come October.

I agree with this....The Federal government has already made their guidelines, so now that those are the guidelines I think all states should follow suit once they meet the criteria. Clearly states in the south have an advantage over the northern states as do the states with more sparse population density over the more populous ones.

This has become a political football. The Blue state governors are moving the goal posts. The standard used to be "Flatten the curve" and now the goal posts are moving from the blue state governors and now it is "We need more testing before we can open up the economy". Polls show that more people are concerned with being overly cautious (even though I do think the polls are worded poorly) and it is an election year and this seems to be the unified position from the left. So, they can hold out until they get what they perceive enough testing for phase 1 despite Dr Fauci and Dr Birx saying otherwise. If the Red states open up without too much incident or outbreaks then the pressure will grow for them to reopen up parts of their economy. Yep

So, I think this was actually the most informative data point that came out today. We knew that people with comorbidities were people at highest risk and there was some research and data in Italy that echoed this. But to put this into perspective, is that 94% of the people who have died had a pre existing medical condition and the more striking number is that 88% of the people had two pre existing medical conditions. Most of them due to some sort of heart disease or condition. When you couple this data with what the antibody tests, you are probably talking about a mortality rate for people who don't have pre existing medical conditions of somewhere around .02 - .1%...... If we are to truly trust the data and that the data does end up somewhat confirming this, then the data says that we should be doing a targeted approach to social distancing. Not withstanding the heavy population areas, the data appears to back up Sweden's approach.

Cuomo said as much: Not to mention the antibody tests presumably didn't capture the people they pricked who actually have the Virus. That could constitute a significant undercount, not to mention they over sampled white people. And for whatever reason, White people that they tested only tested positive at 9% whereas Latino's and Blacks tested around 22-23%. Unless there is something wrong with these antibody tests, which could be the case, then these numbers most likely represent an undercount of the actual numbers.

So I was looking through the statements and as much data as I could that is publicly available to my knowledge. This does not include people who currently are infected. Which could be a big number because that means that it blots out a sizable number of people. Secondly, it doesn't count the dead. Thirdly, it over sampled white people. White people for whatever reason tested positive at only 9% whereas Hispanics and African Americans tested positive at around 22-23%. It also doesn't sample people who are sick and self quarantining so I know that they said on one hand it's people who are out and about at grocery stores, but that also implies people who are heeding the guidelines who are showing symptoms of staying home. More of these tests will be done. RIght now NY city is showing 21% according to this test, I would be shocked that when more tests come out and they take a look at more factors with proper random sampling that New York City isn't at least at 40% by the time June rolls around.

Yep, and the herd immunity I was referring to New York City, not the state. And the results, well...It's just another data point. We have results ranging from .09 to .7% And I would have to see the total number of people that tested positive for the antibodies in this test to get a better idea. That article doesn't show that and it implies that it's only counting people who have antibodies. From the article: We do know that from the time you contracted the virus to the time that you expelled it completely from your system is over 20 days. So did that 21.2% take into account people who are currently infected? By the sounds of that article, that doesn't appear to be the case. Maybe they did but it doesn't appear that way. If they didn't, then the numbers will be considerably higher.

Even though the studies that are coming out suggest that the mortality rates could end up being much lower than what was feared and maybe not that far off of the mortality rate of the flu, it would still suggest that its a lot deadlier than the flu. Not so much that it would be deadlier if you or I were or most other people were to get it as opposed to the flu. The mortality rate most likely isn't what makes it so especially insidious, what it appears that makes it very dangerous are two main points. The rate of contagion. It is so damn contagious, much much more than the flu. And that we don't have a vaccine for it. Right now 40% of the population gets the vaccine for the common flu, so that protects a lot of people from it and slows down the transmission of the virus. So with Coronavirus, it is a lot more contagious and there is no vaccine which means that if we hadn't been doing these social distancing measures or some sort of social distancing measures, then the hospitals would have been flooded with CoronaVirus patients. Just imagine if the regular flu had 10 times as many patients, we would be talking about a massive amount of deaths. SO even though it appears that the mortality rate isn't nearly as high as what was feared, it still is dangerous in that it's highly contagious and there is no vaccine.

Not sure if this was posted earlier but another fascinating antibody result conducted by the state of NY. They go on to say: Would that include people who are currently infected? Infected a week or two ago? Whatever the case, this is yet another data point that supports a considerably lower mortality rate. And if they aren't including the people who are currently infected or were infected a week or two ago, then that number is going to be considerably higher. I have long maintained that before we get to the summer that number will end up being well over 25% and closer to 50% in New York City. By Fall, they could be entering into a somewhat of a herd immunity. No...New York state at .7% and New York city at .6% The way the article reads is that it doesn't take into account people who are currently infected. At least that is not the way it reads.

My wife could be upstairs 4 rooms apart and if she hears "We're all in this together" on a television, she will come at me cursing "We are not all in this ***** together"

Today's national debate

The media won't report it. At least not in a breathless manner that they did with the whole Russian Conspiracy story.

You know how you see all those "scary" beach images of Florida. Here is from our morning walk today in Melbourne Beach, Florida. Our county has a population of 600k. SCARY!

I think the frustration Kemp is since you haven't been keeping up with the thread, there are many people back in January and throughout February and early March who were saying the same thing. Did you know that Dr. Fauci in late February said there was "very little risk" and that people could continue on with what they were doing? Did you know that the governor of New York, Cuomo said there was very little risk in early March? Did you know that Deblasio said that people can continue on with their normal activities in early to Mid March? Did you know that Nancy Pelosi in Late February encouraged people to come and visit China Town SF. in a huge crowd? The list goes on and on. It's not to make them look bad, it's that everyone got it wrong here in the U.S

Yep, which reinforces the case that in the low infected areas they should be relaxing some of the restrictions so that these people get the care they need.

We'll disagree on what the studies are telling us. My assumption all along was that we were around a .25% - .5% Mortality rate and Scott Gottlieb seems to believe we are underreporting by a factor of X 10 to X 20, which would put us on the lower end of my assumptions.

You can see, it's beginning to happen. I imagine over the course of the next couple months we will probably be reading of at least 20 more of these studies. Truth be told, I wouldn't be surprised if Stockholm is beyond 11% at this point.

Here was their conclusion: I read they will be doing more of these antibody tests, we should be finding out more soon but based off of all the other antibody studies that have recently come out and that their relatively loose social-safety measures. 11% in Stockholm, seems to fall right in line. I would venture to guess that the studies that come in will end up being right around where this one showed.

That was my intention.

I guess you guys don't believe of the negative effects of the shutdown and what it does to people's health. Suicide hotlines increase by 8000% I'm pretty certain that in April it will be higher than March. A quick google search and you will see that suicide hotline phone calls are soaring throughout the country. How many patients are dying because they aren't able to get medical care because of the shutdown? Patients with heart attacks, strokes and even appendicitis vanish from hospitals. Where have all the heart attacks gone? The Pandemics Hidden Victims, sick or dying but not from the Virus Do you think this means that Cancer, heart and stroke afflictions are happening less now? No, it just means they are suffering in their homes without getting the critical care they need. And Stress is the 7th leading cause of death in the United States. It leads to weakened immune systems which puts heart and cancer patients at more risk. What are some of the leading causes of stress? Unemployment and isolation induce lots of stress. If you had read the original post you would have read that as a result of the 2008 downturn according to a Harvard Study, hundreds of thousands of people died as a result of this. And there are estimates that we will see half a billion people in the world will ENTER INTO poverty as a result of the downturn. It is an undeniable fact that people in poverty have worse diets, health habits and access to care which all lead to worse health outcomes. Apparently you think these stay-at-home orders and the residual effects on peoples health is a hoax. It's not. Educate yourselves.

Sweden appears to be heading towards herd immunity. They aren't there yet and there would still need to be lots more infections for that to happen but as of right now their medical systems have not been overrun so that each patient can't get the care they need, at least from the reports I have read. The new cases are beginning to flatten but the deaths are beginning to go up, as the deaths are a lagging indicator. So I wouldn't be surprised if they decided to tighten up even more if the pressure mounts.

It could have been handled better on all levels. Without doubt

I actually agree with this. There is enormous pressure on Cuomo to trash Trump, and Cuomo most likely eventually will on a sustained basis here in the coming months leading up to the elections. But, Cuomo does have his own big personality and he's not going to get easily bullied by the pressure to Trash Trump, he will do it on his own terms.