Magox

ughhhh Make it stop. Can we try to have some intelligent conversations that involves just a wee bit of critical thinking?

Well, it is fake news. ?‍♂️

Which is yet another strong data point that lends credence to a vastly lower mortality rate.

Not sure where the confusion lies. It’s up to the states to set policy and the federal government sets guidelines.

My hopes and I think the hopes could end up being right is that we see a decline throughout summer despite the re-openings of economies. Influenza is cyclical and I think there is a chance that this will be as well....Not to mention the hot and humid weather of the summer which should not be underestimated. When you combine that with some of the therapeutics that I am almost certain that we will have available in the coming months, I think there is a solid chance that we will see declining numbers. But then again, I can't say for sure, it is after all a novel virus. But, those are my hopes.

I've reconsidered. These CDC projections are full of ***** and won't come close to happening. Surprised @shoshin you are backing this horse. It makes no sense at all that this will be correct or even anything approaching it.

This is what I was saying and as I was telling @shoshin I think it would be awfully naive to believe in these models considering they have been wrong every step of the way. I mean, I won't make a clear proclamation on this because I do have some questions that need to be hashed out but my gut tells me that this won't be the case and not only do I believe it won't be the case but I believe it will be considerably off. But again, I don't have a good grasp of what the total death count will be. I wish I would have made a projection earlier on but if I had, I probably would have predicted about 100k Deaths by June 1st. If you are to extrapolate this chart it would indicate about 150k deaths by June 1st. This chart projects a sharp increase in deaths beginning around May 15th, which means that they believe that the actions that are now taking place in Georgia and other states are causing the increase. That just doesn't make sense to me at all, the states that have loosened their restrictions are not going to create that sort of an increase, especially when you consider that New York/New Jersey/Michigan/Connecticut/Massachusetts are all beginning their down slide, the downslide should more than offset any sort of negligible increase if any. Again, I'm not going to stake a firm position on this and usually I'm not afraid to do that but as of right this moment, on the surface this doesn't make any sense at all to me. Btw @Doc Brown are you a lefty or a moderate sort of swing voter?

If you read on Nate Silver's timeline, he doesn't outright say it, but I even think he believes the lock downs and the hysteria revolving it is too much.

Yep, I was saying this a couple weeks ago that the tide was going to turn on this. Not as quickly as I had envisioned but it's definitely turning. What's beginning to happen and you are seeing this occur in California is that you are having the righties with the anti vaxxing lefties unite on this issue. Watching them protest together is truly a sight to behold. Edit: I know these anti vaxxing lefty types, they are the sort of friends that I used to go to music festivals out in Northern California with.

I guess we will find out.

Oh yeah, RealkayAdams seems to have some quality posts. Forgot about him/her.

This modeling makes the assumption that the laxing of the lockdowns are going to lead to another massive increase in deaths. One thing is for sure though, modeling has been off every step of the way and the assumptions of states with no lock downs have been off even more so. I won't go out on a limb to make any sort of proclamations but they see to be high from my perspective and all the areas that have had the highest infection rates where most of the deaths are taking place are still on lock down and don't have any sort of immediate plans to open up, at least not in a meaningful way. Also, this seems to suggest that their modeling either is not taking much stock in increased heat and humidity or they don't believe that heat and humidity play a role. We'll see.

He's a lefty? I sort of viewed him as a moderate swing voter type. GF can be ok at times and TPS is a quality poster. Aside from that, there aren't too many others.

Isn't there a single left leaning poster who consistently posts on here that can actually make a good argument? DC Tom said it years ago, the righties on this board intellectually dominate the lefties. Since I have come back, that is has become evidently clear.

Cuomo I believe has been an excellent communicator. He gives the sort of power point presentations to the public in a fact based manner and personally speaking, it's my sort of communication sytle. With that said, he has not done well on the substance. Never mind the words, because all politicians got it wrong on the words even guys like Fauci. So I'll give him a pass on that, but he was late to the game on the shut downs, his insistence to keep the MTA open which in studies are showing was a major cause of the transmission of the VIRUS. Then he didn't even have an effective sanitization policy on the MTA's until just the other day. And what will arguably go down as possibly his worst decision was the Nursing home policy. That was a fatal error. All of these are significant problems and people who judge history in a non biased manner will not reflect so kindly on him.

It's as if the media and lefty politicians have dusted off the playbook and it's 2009/2010 all over again.

I don't know. My guess is and it's only a guess because clearly we aren't privy to that information is that they suspect that the Virus did come from the lab. But that it's not "man-made" so to speak and that somehow it escaped. I think our difference lies on the emphasis of mortality rates. I'm not making the case of one being more important over the other and if I were in the decision making process I would be looking at numerous subsets of data to make that determination. Mortality rates based off of the information that has been gathered would be one of those metrics and for me, it's an important one. In regards to Hospitalization utilization rates, ICU, definitely would be another one since it goes back to the original stated goal of "flattening the curve". Can our hospital systems provide the care our patients need in case of a surge of new hospitalizations?

It sort of reminds me of all those articles and twitter comments from journalists when refer to Trump's statements when he makes them "Without evidence", "not confirmed" , implying that he's full of *****. And then months or even sometimes years later it turns out that he was correct. Yet there are no retractions of these articles. There is no "right" measure, there should be various metrics that are viewed and mortality rate certainly is an important one.

Honest mistake... It happens

I would say that he misspoke.

That’s an interesting method in how he extrapolated the numbers to come to that conclusion. It falls right in line with the serological antibody studies that are taking place. I have also been doing quite a bit of reading on the influenza and it seems to have a similar pattern in that it affects people who have comorbidities and are elderly more so than the rest of the population. And that pneumonia is prevalent with both influenza and COVID 19 deaths. We know that this is highly contagious but something in it’s transmissibility makes especially acute in higher density populations. I’m very interested in learning how the spread of the virus is occurring the most. I hear conflicting things and none of them explain or make sense to me why it’s spreading so fast.

WTF?? They only have 109 deaths related to COVID And one of the lowest deaths per capita rates in the nation. What is she trying to do? That cannot stand.

Not the same person?

The true irony is that there is a greater chance he dies of a heat stroke than people do on that beach of contracting the virus and dying on that hot and humid beach.