thebandit27

Oh now I've read it all. You're whipping out the brutal shtick and then following up with this gem? Ok, go ahead and back up that statement. What was Taylor's average depth of target in 2016? 2017? What about his average intended air yards per attempt? How does that compare to the big-armed, gunslinger types like Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford? How does it compare to the elite guys like Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers? You can say a lot of thing about Tyrod Taylor, but an unwillingness to push the ball down the field ranks in the top 3 for most-categorically-false statements of such a nature.

The cap goes up between 10 and 12 million every year, which easily takes care of draft picks. As long as a team can ensure that they have 30 million or so going into the offseason, they can almost always afford one huge extension for their own and one solid FA contract. And that's without paying any attention to adjusting current deals.

No...not at all. For one, I don't think there's anywhere near the gap between the top WR in next year's class and the 4th than the one that was perceived between Watkins and say, OBJ at the time. For another, the FA class of wideouts still looks pretty strong in 2020. Lastly, there's less of a desperation-mode feeling to Allen (at this point) than there was to EJ at the time.

Watkins was far and away the #1 WR in the draft that year. Let's face it: that move was a desperation heave to get EJ Manuel a WR1 in order to give him a chance to maximize his ability. It didn't work. But let's also recognize how good Watkins was when he was healthy: He put up almost 1,000 yards with EJ and Kyle Orton as a rookie, and followed that up with over 1,000 yards on 96 targets (in 13 games) with Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking an offense that threw fewer passes than any other offense in the NFL. For as pass-happy as the NFL has become, only 20 WRs in the game had over 1,000 yards last year. In 2017, that number was only 15. I think it's safe to say that we'd all trade our 2020 first round pick for a WR that put up Sammy's 2015 numbers right now. As for Sammy's "monster year", if it doesn't happen in 2019 it'll never happen. It's his first season in the NFL where he's coming in healthy and playing in the same system as the previous year.

That's true...what was even more encouraging, to me, was that his very first completion in the 2nd half was to the TE (I think it was Croom) on the exact same route concept. It was Kelly-esque in that Allen did the whole "okay, you got me once, but watch this" thing that Jimbo was famous for.

Thanks Shady. According to Spotrac, the Bills have approximately $143M committed to 58 player contracts in 2020. Assuming that the cap rises to ~$200M, and the Bills end up rolling over $15M of their $22M in cap space from 2019, that would place Buffalo's team cap limit at $215M, leaving them $72M in cap space for 2020. Knock off $10M each for 2020 rookies and 2020 in-season management, and you're looking at $52M in contracts that they can dole out in FA where the group of pass rushers and WRs looks to be very, very good.

I wasn't going to go down the "he was literally the entire offense" road, regardless of how true it was. But since someone else opened the door, I present this: Josh Allen was responsible for 81% of the team's yards and 85% of the team's first downs in the games he played. Only one other team, TB, had its QB tandem account for a greater percentage of their offensive yardage and first downs...and Tampa Bay had Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Adam Humphries, Chris Godwin, and OJ Howard as the primary targets.

What about when you say other stuff? Or nothing at all?

Cherry-picked stats I can handle just fine...where it gets out of bounds for me is the totally made-up stuff or complete willful ignorance of counterpoints. A perfect example is the idea that we should disregard Allen's Week 17 performance because, well, reasons. Instead, let's focus on the Jets game because, well, other reasons. There's not an Allen-supporter alive that doesn't acknowledge that he needs to improve in several areas. Claiming otherwise is simply a tool to allow oneself to shout louder and more frequently. That makes you more confident than me for sure. The furthest I'll go is this: if indeed Allen can improve in the 3 key areas of play recognition, taking what the defense gives him, and not rushing his setup/delivery, he's going to become a franchise QB...and if he becomes a franchise QB, this team is going to win a Super Bowl.

I would't judge any QB by his rookie year...I did say in the leadup to the 2018 draft that I felt all 5 QBs had a real chance to be franchise-caliber, and I'll stand by that. I had Mayfield and Rosen as 1a and 1b, followed by Darnold at 3 and Allen at 4. I had Jackson as a round 1 guy but behind the others. I think Darnold certainly showed some chops as a rookie. I also think that he's still got some ball security issues, and I don't love his pocket mechanics yet. For me personally, I think the AFC East is the most intriguing division in the game when it comes to QB development over the next half-decade.

That's the generally-accepted viewpoint 'round these parts as well. Most folks fall into the "cautiously optimistic" or "guarded skepticism" category. Not too many folks are thoroughly convinced in either direction, though the folks that are so convinced love to pretend that everyone that isn't convinced of their particular viewpoint falls on the other extreme. The only bone I pick is with the 60% metric. We've beaten it up pretty good on this board, but there are plenty of examples of college QBs that have made the jump, and there are also examples of guys not being 60-percenters that have had solid NFL careers. Some of those guys (like Cam Newton for example) even go on to make meteoric jumps in completion percentage later in their careers. But that's minutiae IMO...the real keys for Allen right now are play recognition, learning to take what the defense gives him, and not rushing his throws.

It's pretty darn easy...just go to your timestamps and look at the very next play in 80% of instances. Not hard at all. Watch with no agenda and you'll see it. Look, if you can't bother to read the post then don't respond. That you could read my post and respond that I'm defending anything is the height of obfuscation. I also find it interesting that you picked the only game where Allen didn't throw a TD pass to analyze his passing, and use it as support for the idea that he didn't improve as a passer as the season progressed. You want evidence of improvement? I'll make it simple: Josh Allen's 6 pre-injury game passing stats: 75/139, 832 yards, 2 TDs, 5 INTs, 61.8 passer rating, 21 sacks Josh Allen's 6 post-injury game passing stats: 94/181, 1242 yards, 8 TDs, 7 INTs, 72.57 passer rating, 7 sacks Now go ahead and say that the Week 17 game doesn't count, because it's the only leg that you have to stand on.

You cannot possibly be that bad at reading. I'm going to give you another chance to read the post you quoted and change your response to it...because this one is brutal.

Also, a timestamp analysis is good, but leaving out critical context is kind of underwhelming. For example, just take a look at how many of the negative plays were followed by first-down-making plays generated by Allen on the very next play (as well as on the very same set of downs). Does that excuse poor decision-making? No. Does it mean he doesn't need to get better? No. Does it mean that he has shown the ability to make plays that routinely overcome the ones he misses. Yes. Will that alone make him a franchise QB? Of course not.

That was more hilarious than anger-inducing for me. It was truly a popcorn moment.

Then you don't know what you're watching: Good thing Allen can get himself out of those situations: Also, this is at least the 5th time you've alluded to WRs flailing their arms in frustration. I let it go the first 4 times, now, on #5, I'll ask you to show me a few examples, since it happened so regularly.

Wow, we're way off the beaten path here.

I hope Ford starts, because that means that he was too good to keep off the field. The RT in front of him, Nsehke, is a good football player. If Ford beats him for the job, then the OT position is looking like it's 3-deep with legitimate NFL starting talent. If he doesn't win the RT job, but looks too good to keep off the field, then that's even better. Kick him over to guard, where he has 2+ years of experience. I said pre-draft that I thought Ford was a solid player--the kind of guy that you draft believing that he can play tackle, but knowing that he can play guard. Now, for me, that type of player is a late day 2 value, but that's beside the point. Regardless, that there's enough competition to potentially keep a good football player like Ford off the field is a positive step for this team, and a huge difference from 2018.

@Blokestradamus, is that you?

Not sure that's true. Sure, he may want to be paid like a tackle, but it's not exactly a rarity for a tackle to get moved to guard and subsequently paid like a guard. Off the top of my head I can tell you that it's happened with Rodger Saffold, Marshal Yanda, Kelechi Osemele, and James Carpenter. Point is: if you are going to pay him like a LT, then great, leave him at LT. If you aren't going to pay him like a LT, then wouldn't you at least entertain the possibility of getting better play out of him at guard in the hope that he'll stay there long-term? I mean, the difference between guard money and tackle money isn't much these days anyway; 2 of the 10 highest paid OLmen in the NFL are guards.

I have no idea. What I do know is that you better be willing to pay him $17M/year to play LT here, since he's got more starts at LT than Trent Brown did when he got paid stupid money in FA. I also know that if you aren't prepared to pay him that, then you need to find a better LT. As to what I think: I think that if you move him to LG and he ends up being a better guard than a tackle, you can justify paying him $12M/year to play LG. If you pay him $17M/year and he's a middling LT, then that's just a poor usage of resources at one of the 5 premium salaried positions in the game.

The idea of moving Dawkins to guard was more focused on (a) getting the best combination of 5 on the field and (b) putting Dawkins in a position to be the greatest asset to the team. And it wasn't a hard and fast "move him to guard"...it was that the team should be open to trying him at guard as part of their tinkering to see if that combination gave them a better set of 5. If he stays at LT, then the team better be willing to pay him LT money in another year. If they're not, then they should at least be willing to try him at LG to see if he's worth a premium contract at that spot. Because one way or another, Dawkins is going to want to get paid after the 2020 season.

Sad day for Broncos fans. Alzheimer's. There is no worse disease. It is, IMO, the single worst way to watch a loved one go.

Just as an FYI--it would have been Mahomes.

I wouldn't say that Zay has lived up to his draft status; my point is more that there's plenty of space between "bust" and "star", and Zay lies right within it. Right now, he's a WR3 type.