Thurman#1

Milano was a sensational pick and Edmunds was good. So you should. Not that I know the first thing about Dorian Williams. Generally not doing well (or doing very well for that matter) at picking any particular position is more about sample size, the early or late nature of the picks you've taken and luck than it is about difficulty picking any one particular position.

Everyone. Football isn't about offense. It's about both offense and defense. Good good picks, but not because they're on the offense. Just because they're really good players and good bargains where picked.

Dane Brugler said about Kincaid's blocking that he was "willing and functional." Now, that's far from outstanding, but in no way could you ever call Gesicki's blocking either functional or willing.

Doesn't mean nothing, it's something. But if he plays well he can make the pick look great.

One? No. Should they be thinking about it if it makes sense? Yeah, absolutely.

Cover1 had "Swole Beasley."

It's a fair point, but Kincaid is already a lot better blocker than Gesicki has ever been or for that matter wanted to be. Gesicki is dreadful. Kincaid is about replacement level as a blocker, and for a guy who's got as little experience at it and is a rookie, that's a lot more acceptable.

I guess you can argue he's been underutilized, but not a whole lot. 17th in TE targets. 17th in TE receptions. Tied for 5th in TE TDs. 14th in TE yards. All this for a guy whose brother died during the season. Is it really that surprising that they started him slow? He had 27 targets in the first eight weeks, out of his total of 65. He had 20 catches out of 48 in his first eight games. Folks, none of this makes any less than total sense. Finn, "incompetent" is way way overstating it for Brown, who was recovering from back surgery, didn't have an offseason, and improved a lot as the season went along. But yeah, fair enough, he wasn't as good as we wanted and may well have needed more help sometimes than you'd want him to, and that may have affected the way they used Knox.

Of course you can. They might easily have thought he was the BPA from, say #23 when Addison was picked. Perhaps even quite a bit earlier. It's not "Best Player Available at Your Original Draft Position." It's Best Player Available ... at a position of need, whenever you pick.

Nolan Smith. Several others as well, but he was my #1. Hadn't watched a single highlight on Kincaid.

Mazi Smith and Brandon Hill

Me? I'd much rather have someone who doesn't try hard.

Van Jefferson at #57 Metcalf at #64 (and Metcalf had injury problems in college but his fall was more from concerns about stiffness and a limited route tree and concerns he would need a lot of development) Parris Campbell at #59 exactly\ Terry McLaurin at #76 Smith-Shuster at #62 Cooper Kupp at #69 Chris Godwin at #84 Tyler Boyd at #55 Tyreek in the 5th You can still get guys at that level or later. It's not a dead zone. Yes, the percentages go down the further back you go, but that absolutely does not mean you can't do very well there a pretty reasonable percentage of the time.

Yup. Good point. It's also fair to point out that this year is a bit weaker than recent past years, but a 2nd round WR could easily turn out to be a terrific pick. And IMO you're being a bit kind with the Hopkins folks. Unless Arizona eats a ton of his contract, he's just too expensive, and probably would cost too much in trade to be a one-year rental, yet we'd have a very hard time re-signing him after this year. I think it's pretty unlikely we end up with him. Not impossible, but quite unlikely.

Seumalo is 29 and coming off a terrific season. Fluker is 32 and coming off a season where he completely disappeared, and one before that where he was cut from I believe three practice squads. That's two years off (not three as several said above). Wouldn't mind taking a flier on him at vet min. Anything beyond that, though, and no thanks.

Oh, CeeDee Lamb, with 867 slot yards, also, 1st round.

There's no reason to mention failures when it comes to picking the same position again. Every GM who's been around more than about a year has missed a bunch of picks. It happens. It's absolutely inevitable. And making one bad pick at one position isn't good or even reasonable evidence that you won't do well the next time you pick there. Oh, and Tommy Doyle isn't a missed pick by any stretch of the imagination. He's a 5th rounder, still on the team as a backup. That's what you would expect. Nor Spencer Brown. We simply don't know yet about him, with the back injury. Cody Ford? Yeah, absolutely. A failure. But not the other two. To remind you, this what you said: You: As wrong as you can get. You can and you do. It's where most of the best slots come from.

Some of the best slot WRs in the league and where they were drafted: Tyler Boyd 2nd round Christian Kirk 2nd round Randall Cobb 2nd round Jerry Jeudy 1st round Chase Claypool 2nd round Parris Campbell 2nd round Curtis Samuel 2nd round Cooper Kupp 4th round but would have been a fantastic value well into the top half of the 1st Deebo Samuel (33 of 43 in the slot last year) 2nd round It just simply ain't so that you don't draft slots in the first or second. They're rare in the first, but most of the best of them came precisely in the 2nd.

You're seriously distorting, or at least exaggerating, what Aaron Quinn said. He didn't say "fans expect these players to play close to their potential right away," as you paraphrase it here. Nonsense. He said that "fans need to adjust their expectations," which surely means that fans expect too much as rookies, but does NOT mean that fans expect them to play close to 100% of their potential right away. Frankly, Bills fans absolutely do expect too much from rookies, particularly rookies stepping into a very strong roster. Edmunds was very good right from scratch. Got a ton better as time passed. If he wasn't good enough for the fans, that's because they had nutty expectations. There's a reason he's now the 4th best-paid off-ball LB in football in AAV, behind only Roquan, Shaquille Leonard and Fred Warner. "Notably poor in run defense" is absolute and utter nonsense whether you're talking about his Bills career or his rookie year. He did take some bad angles that first year getting used to the speed of the game and the Bills run fills system while having to call the defenses. Still was very good, though. Fair enough that "it wasn't a spectacular, pro bowl start." You're certainly right about that. But that's not the bar that was originally raised.

Agreed #27 is a bit high. But Smith-Schuster isn't always a slot. He's versatile and generally runs a lot inside and out. 40% slot last year according to this: https://www.patriots.com/news/analysis-how-will-the-patriots-utilize-new-wr-juju-smith-schuster-in-the-offense#:~:text=Although 40 percent of his,the Pats also run regularly. But I think people under-estimate how very valuable a really good slot guy can be to Allen. Beasley for a while there was an absolute third down machine for 1st downs. Having a guy who can get open on those plays really quick is huge for continuing drives.

Shakir can play outside or slot. I'm with Campbell and Sanders just where I am with Downs. I really like them, but not without a trade back.

Rousseau and Edmunds both probably lived up to their draft status as rookies. Neither ripped up the league but both had very good rookie years.

The fact that you're "not really buying into the Gabe injury excuse," says a lot more about what you want to believe than it does about Gabe. Acknowledging Gabe's injury as a factor would hurt your narrative, so you're not buying in. He missed a game. Then had one of his least productive games the next week and his absolute least productive game the week after that. Whether or not you find it convenient to admit, that injury absolutely hurt his productivity. And as has been said again and again (and again), you don't need to use spin to help explain his catch percentage. He has one of the longest average target distance in the league. And the longer the passes that come to you are, no matter who you are, the lower a percentage you're likely to catch. That's what happens with long passes. They're harder to complete. That's simply a fact. Plus another fact inconvenient for your argument, which is that reception percentage is NOT a receiver stat. It's a quarterback and receiver stat. With the defense also making a significant contribution. You're probably right that he's not worth $15M right now. The general consensus right now is around $12 or $13M. That's what he's worth, most likely. He was a #2. That's what he was. Certainly not an elite or great one. But he's a #2. You folks pretending he's a #3 or a #4 are kidding yourselves. An average #2? Yeah, for last year that's probably fair. Does that mean we shouldn't try to improve our WR situation? Hell, no. We should improve ourselves at every position, certainly including WR. Again, I'd love to get Josh Downs in the draft if we can trade down to do it. Or Flowers or Addison at #27 if possible.

Downs is probably somewhere around the 35th - 40th best player. Roughly. Haven't crept into the Bills draft room, so I don't know how they see him, but that seems to be the general consensus. They might not have the chance to trade back. But IMO if they can't trade back, Downs won't be who they go with. Guess we'll see. Again, I like Downs a lot. Just not at #27.

Agreed. It's less replacing Beasley than replacing Beasley's role in 2020 and 2019. Harty and Sherfield might be able to fill that role, or at least to some degree. I wouldn't mind them bringing in a high-level slot guy like Flowers or Downs.