Thurman#1

Yup, agree on both points. $2.5M gained and he came across as thoughtful, responsible, honest and very much worthy of approbation. Seemed like a hell of a man.

That's absolute nonsense. Wallace didn't have two options. He had thousands. Here's one: "No comment." Here's another: "That's not for me to say." Here's another: "Well, everyone on that field gave 110% in that game and I still consider them all my brothers and yadda yadda yadda." Instead he went far into depth explaining exactly and precisely why the fault for that play was not on the coaches but on the communication between he and Poyer. And you may "know how Leadership and Accountability work," but you're the one who said it's 100% on the coaches. That would seem to indicate that assuming you do know how it works, you weren't using what you know when you said that. Yeah, they should take responsibility. But no, nobody who wants to figure out what really happened should just say it was 100% on the coaches. It wasn't. They deserve their share, but there was plenty to go around. It isn't all on Wallace either? Yeah, very correct. That's why I didn't say it was all on him. I said the problem on that play was the communication between he and Poyer as he said, but that there was plenty of blame to go around including ... well, I already wrote it once, no need to do so again. I really respect Levi, wish him the best, and wouldn't mind if he ended up back here at some point if the money works out.

You're misstating the numbers a bit there. The $1.5M is dead cap, not cap hit. And dead cap doesn't matter to us, as it's the Steelers who gave him that signing bonus. And he's not owed $5.5, that's cap hit. His salary will be $4M. That's what the Bills would have to pay. In their current financial state, I don't see them paying him that to be a backup.

There's not really a thing about who is supposed to be the guy. Whoever plays best, that's who's supposed to be the guy. It is indeed a bit of a dead horse. But he was more than a symptom. He himself has said that they called the coaches called the right play, and that the communication between Poyer and Wallace didn't work in the moment.

Levi made it very plain that the coaching was not to blame, that the communication between himself and Poyer was to blame for that play. And nobody has come out and said it, but it sure looks like Farwell being let go tells us who it was who broke the chain in getting the word to the kicker on that kickoff that wasn't a squib. That and Cheetah, Kelce and Mahomes being the best in football at that time and playing at the top of their abilities. Nobody blames the KC defense for not being able to stop Allen on those last three or four drives, even when there was virtually no time. Nor should they. The coaches sure get their share of the responsibility, but the players on both sides also should be blamed. Not to mention that coin. If it falls tails, Buffalo wins that game, there's zero doubt in my mind. Again, they get their share of the blame, but putting it on them 100% says more about you than it does about what actually happened.

IMO you're speeding up Kincaid's timetable. Wouldn't be surprised to see things look like this in 2024, but this year? Yeah, I doubt it. Hopefully we see things trend in that direction, especially near the end of the year, but I think he's going to take a bit of time. There are exceptions, but most TEs do, especially on teams that need to win in their rookie years.

You don't know what his best is. He very likely hasn't reached it yet. He's already an average #2. The numbers make that very clear even in a year when he was injured. He might easily get better. He also might not. We'll have to see. The reason it's "so hard for people to understand" is that outside yourself you won't find so many people willing to assume that your guesses and assumptions are facts. And for good reason. Not that they should assume that about my guesses either. We're fans, we're on the outside. We don't know nearly as much as we think we do. About the only thing we can be sure of is that without evidence, we can't be sure of all that much. Sheesh. Hadn't seen that. Good stuff.

Nonsense, as usual. We get it, it's very clear that you didn't think he was worth the price. Thing is, your assumption that because you think something that Beane also thinks it is just plain dumb. First, Beane isn't dumb. And you're accusing him of that here. He's worth his price. That's why he got it. That's why the Bills fully believed he would get more than they could pay in their current salary cap situation. Second, Beane's said it straight out. That they'd love to get him back but they always thought he'd probably get too much. Here's one of many quotations about this: "That’s why he knew well before the former first-round draft pick hit the open market this week that there was probably no way the Bills were going to be able to re-sign the five-year starter. Sure enough, Edmunds landed in Chicago on a massive four-year deal worth $72 million with a staggering $50 million guaranteed. “ 'We stayed in touch with his representatives,' Beane said. 'We thought he was the top linebacker in free agency and all it takes is one team. I don’t know how many were bidding for him; I’m not privy to that. But it’s not a surprise that he got up there. We love him, didn’t want to lose him, but it’s a puzzle piece and unfortunately you just can’t keep them all.'” https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2023/03/17/buffalo-bills-news-brandon-beane-expected-to-lose-tremaine-edmunds/70016451007/ "We’re always wanting to draft, develop, sign our own. Sometimes there’s big-ticket items and you can only pay so many guys. So when you’re talking about a guy that just hit an $18 million (average per year), that’s hard. That meant if you’re going to pay that, then you may say ‘We’re going to lose this other guy or we’re going to move on from him.’ You make decisions. You do the best you can. You don’t want to lose a guy like Tremaine.” https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/observations-brandon-beane-says-bills-loved-didnt-want-to-lose-tremaine-edmunds/article_d5d33518-c455-11ed-b3f1-ff25b721dfde.html That's what they think, that he was worth it but they couldn't pay it. They expected him to get a huge contract, because he's worth it. They couldn't keep all of the players they wanted because of their salary cap situation. "No way they were going to be able to ..." Not that they didn't think it was worth it. You're right, not thinking he is worth it is quite different. That is indeed exactly and precisely the mistake you made. Because it fits your narrative, you assumed Beane must think the same thing. It was a classic case of badly misreading reality. That's how confirmation bias works.

Yeah, they addressed that in the article. "Ertz said one person – on the Eagles’ side of the talks – nixed the deal with the Bills. He would not say who. The most likely candidate probably would be Eagles general manager Howie Roseman." Yeah, nope.

Thanks for posting it. Always wondered what happened there.

Yeah, um, no. Tremaine is now the fourth-highest paid off-ball LB in the league, behind only Roquan, Shaquille Leonard and Fred Warner. Whether you guys refuse to admit it or just genuinely missed it, Tremaine was a very good LB here and then became an excellent one in his last year. The reason he's not here is because we couldn't afford him.

For 2024, you're saying? I think by then they'll be able to target much better. They'll have a lot more info about what works and what doesn't with the changes they're making with the scheme. At that point if they need an expensive FA, why not pick one who's been primarily an MLB or at least an ILB?

It'll depend on the doctor, which we will never hear about, and the salary, which if the doctor's report is good will likely be fairly high in a year when we have to keep expenses down.

Well, first, here are three that do put Allen ahead of Burrow. Took me a 5 minute google search. https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-qb-power-rankings/ https://sportsnaut.com/nfl-qb-rankings/ https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/qb-cheatsheets.php I respect your post, Dingus, thoughtful and reasonable, though I disagree. I follow a lot of non-Bills stuff, but I'm choosy, and offseason nonsense like who's the best at whatever position doesn't have a lot of interest for me. I'm much more interested in how teams are looking like they will perform next year. So I do miss a lot of the stuff you're talking about. As for the people who do put Burrow ahead of Allen, IMO an awful lot of them are talking about right now. Kind of the same way you have to put the SB winning team first in your power rankings in Week 1 the next year. Allen's throwing arm was injured for most of the last half of the year. He wasn't himself, and I think a lot of the rankings reflect that. They're looking at right now, not expected future performance. Among people concerned with future performance, I believe Allen at least holds his own. Probably the biggest group of people specifically looking at future performance is the fantasy folks. And lots of them are putting Allen over Burrow, I learned with another very quick search. Some of that has to do with running probably, though I am very much not a fantasy guy. But probably a lot also is simply that they think he had a bad end of the season and will be better. It seems likely. https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/qb-cheatsheets.php https://www.draftsharks.com/dynasty-rankings/qb/all-players/one-ppr https://www.rotostreetjournal.com/2023-fantasy-football-rankings-and-big-board/ https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/36312955/nfl-fantasy-football-rankings-2023-qb-quarterback https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/dynasty-fantasy-football-quarterback-rankings-uncertainty-grows-around-lamar-jackson-and-trey-lance/ The part of the post I originally replied to with such derision was where the guy said Allen was "borderline top five," and "out of the elite tier". That's utter nonsense.

This is kind of cute. Like watching a newborn kitty try to take his first steps.

Yeah, perfectly put.

He's smart enough. But doing that isn't just a matter of being smart. You've got to put yourself in everyone's place. It makes it tougher to be ready for the play, especially if they're running a lot of motion, quick snaps, etc. Milano's forte is explosion, penetration and causing havoc. That might be harder when you're having to think for everyone else before the snap. They might have one of the safeties do it. If they're running different MLBs in situationally, they wouldn't give the dot to them.

I don't see a lot of disrespect for Allen, myself. I mean, clearly the Cincy game was not good for him but everyone has bad games sometimes, absolutely everyone. I'd take Allen over Burrow. I think most would, though Burrow will have a chance to try to change that over time. Worth a double face palm, honestly. This is just a dumb take.

Certainly that could be. But I don't think the Lawrence pick is even the slightest bit of a surprise. Things look the same with Oliver that they did a week ago. IMO they want to keep him. They might be able to. But maybe not. I don't think it's clear, particularly before the season. Even with Poona on board they still don't have anyone under contract through 2024 at DT. I think they'd love to keep Ed, and might be able to.

He is what he is? Polite disagreement there. He could improve or not. He got better each of his first three years, then didn't last year while he fought through ankle problems. IMO it's early in his career for us to think we know what he is. It's not completely clear yet. He is impactful at times, showing flashes of excellence fairly often, but not doing it consistently. Impactful, but not often enough. What he does consistently is play good 3-tech at an above-average level. But shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath as the guys above who will get paid in the $20M level. Someone above said he was a bust, and he just isn't. Maybin was picked at #11, and spent only four years in the league. That's a bust. Whitner was picked at #8, a close comparison, and spent 11 years in the league playing safety at an above average level and even managing two Pro Bowls later in his career. That's not a bust. It absolutely is a case of a guy being picked too early. And in retrospect, that's how the Oliver pick looks like it will be remembered (assuming you're right and he is what he showed last season, which again I think is not yet clear). Picked a bit early. Absolutely not a bust. Will probably have a long productive career in the NFL. At the time, picking Ed seemed like a good value. There were serious questions as to whether he'd make it to us, and he did so largely because so many QBs were picked early. Having said that, the narrative was really different before last year. He'd been improving consistently each of his first three years and was looked on as a guy who might take a jump up among the better DTs of the league. He didn't. But at the same time, he quietly fought through ankle problems last year. He might easily take that jump this year if he stays healthy. Or not. We'll have to see.

I heard you out. No.

Oliver isn't a guy who'll get a contract like that, unless he sees vast improvement. If the Bills somehow get a guy who's worth that kind of money, it'll be worth it. They might not be able to afford it, but if they got a guy like that they'd likely do their best to keep him, and it would be worth it if they managed it. Who's worth it? The absolute best DTs, the top five to eight or so. Simmons is certainly one, and he'll get one whether it's with the Titans or another team, a good one. He's elite. He changes games. Again, he's worth it and how good his team is has nothing to do with it. Aaron Donald, without question. And about four others who are coming due about now. Quinnen Williams. Dexter Lawrence, Simmons and Chris Jones. I'm less sure with Daron Payne. He's already got a contract like that, but Washington isn't exactly an organization that has shown good judgment. Not sure there. But the five above deserve contracts like that. Maybe Buckner and Hargrave as well. They're already very close anyway, and they probably deserve to be. In his heyday, Fletcher Cox was worth that, but they weren't paying DTs that way at that time.

Please, Oliver isn't a bust. He's a genuinely good player, impactful. Not worth his draft slot, but very good.

No, just the opposite, I think. It's the new way to build a team. In the old way, a DT just doesn't get that kind of money. Welcome to the new NFL model. DTs are now worth more. So they're getting it.

Agreed. He'd love it if a byproduct of what he wanted to do screwed the Jets. But he wouldn't do it to screw the Jets. He'd do whatever he thought was best for his team.