Thurman#1

Great? Really? Looked nice to me, but if anything he could've thrown it a step or two earlier and made it a ton easier. Zay looks like he's going to get open, but he was going to be open from the minute he crossed the hashes. He has three steps on his guy and nobody else is headed in the right direction to cover him. He's going to be open and Tyrod sees it early, even skips a step to wait, which IMHO he shouldn't have done. Solid play, right on target, but great is really an exaggeration. Tyrod has some great plays sometimes. This isn't one. Though it certainly is a solid good play.

The Colts didn't tank. They suffered a key injury, an injury of the single guy their entire offense - their entire team, really - was built around. The problem was that when they drafted Luck, they didn't rebuild. That was their huge mistake. They said, "We're going to build and at the same time, we're going to win." And they kept good but aging and expensive guys like Reggie Wayne, Robert Mathis and Freeney. And because of that they were able to be good enough to make the playoffs every year but not to be nearly good enough to win a title, and yet they also had crappy draft spots. They middled it, trying to both win and rebuild. And it didn't work. They won but they didn't rebuild. Should've sucked for a year or two and brought in some young impact players. Fourteen is an exaggeration, but so is two, just exaggerating the other way. The argument we hear is that every QB has plays like that. And that's true. But Tyrod has more than the better ones. It's his particular problem.

This is another person that just doesn't get it. 20-18 and we're supposed to be thrilled about it, according to him? And it's Tyrod that keeps us in the wild-card picture, not the whole team doing it? It's not the slightest bit puzzling. This. I agree Tyrod seems to be a good leader, a hard worker and a good guy. But so was Fitz. Give me a guy who can make quick correct decisions and go through a lot of reads. The problem with Cutler isn't that his teammates don't like him, it's that too often he makes bad throws.

Man, do I agree with you here. I always thought the NFL was being petty but these guys look like idiots with the choreographed and yet incredibly weak celebrations. Awful.

The well-known principle isn't once they start it can take 2 - 4 years. It's pretty much guys who become starters in their first year or so who get given 4 years to come around. I can't think of anyone who sat the bench for four years like Tyrod who was then given four years. After sitting that long, you ought to have a major head start when you do get into the action. As I've said many times before there is one guy - Gannon - who wasn't already a franchise guy after six years who became one. Guys with that kind of a head start don't usually need three or four years to figure. We usually know after a year or two at the most, with Gannon the only exception. As for being better last year? Boy, I didn't see it. Since those excellent first seven games or so of his first year, after which they figured him out, Tyrod's been what he is, a guy who has good games ... and then bad ones. Consistently inconsistent. Look at his stats for the two years. Pretty close. Completion percentage a bit up, acceptable both years, TD % exactly the same, quite low both years, INT % slightly down, terrific both years, Y/A significantly down but low both years, passer rating ever so slightly up, about a point and a half. He's the same guy.

Disagree. Not everything that doesn't work out is stupid. This certainly was a failure but the team didn't have a problem with it, anymore than they had a problem with bringing Tyrod back. They got some extra info on Peterman and his progress and it's not like they weren't able to bring Tyrod back for the second half. Not all failures were stupid. Plenty were worth trying. Depends what they were after. They weren't gonna win that game anyway.

I don't think they were specifically saying that it was an either/or situation. At one point Dunne said, "The Bills want a guy who can work from the pocket ..." So it was more that Dunne was saying that Tyrod is going than specifically that Dennison was staying. He did appear to be saying they were incompatible, but I don't think they made the leap that because Tyrod is going, that shows Dennison is staying. Not primarily Tyrod's fault, no. But is he maybe part of it? Absolutely. Teams are probably less scared of Tyrod than they are of Shady breaking one. They likely have more resources and game-planning time devoted to stopping the run game. Know whose play-calling was unbelievably predictable? Marchibroda. Teams knew what was coming, they just couldn't stop it. An awful lot of the time what is called play-calling problems are really execution problems. That's not just on the Bills, it's in football generally.

The whoopdy doo is that Wilson is also one of the lowest QBs in the league at throwing there and he still throws there nearly twice as often as Tyrod does. And by the way, has Wilson got any completions there? Or is he 0 for 3 like Tyrod is? Through three games, Tyrod had thrown one pass there, incomplete. Never threw another till last week when he threw two, both incomplete. Most of the rest of the league are weil above than and it's very likely that there isn't another starter in the league who's thrown there as low a number of times or as low a percentage of times. Even safer to say that about completions there, what with Tyrod having zero. Pretty funny to compare Wilson to Tyrod in that zone, and funny that you used passer rating to talk about the intermediate zone but not the deep one. Wonder why that is? Oh, possibly it's because while he was throwing there twice as often Wilson came up with a 100.3 passer rating while Tyrod had a 39.6. Wait, is it possible to get a passer rating lower than that? Passer ratings are pretty random on small samples like this? Yeah, exactly my point. Especially if the samples are, you know, smaller than the rest of the league. And thinking that 1.1% is the key number is flat-out dumb. Deep throws are extremely important. They get chunk plays far more often than short, intermediate or behind the line throws. Yeah, the majority of all throws are within ten yards or behind the line. Doesn't mean the longer balls aren't important. They are. They back safeties up which helps with the short pass game and the run game as well. Give a defense a tendency that obvious - that they don't have to worry about a very large segment of the field, and they'll use it. They'll edge guys in the deep middle up to fight the run game and over to help on the sidelines. The important number is how many of his deep balls are to the deep middle. Tyrod probably is the single most predictable QB in this, and that gives the defense an advantage. As for why I still link the deep and intermediate middle third together, I get that you seem to feel this is like rocket science. But it ain't. I link them together because he has a history of not throwing often to either. Again, makes him easier to predict and the Bills easier to defense.

I hope you're wrong. At this point I'm just hoping for a good draft position. No way this team is good enough to do any damage whatsoever even if they sneak into the playoffs in this poor conference. I don't want another 7 or 8 win season thought of by some as a victory because we got more than 4 or 5 wins.

Oh, wait, the paleozoic stubbornness you love so much is exactly one of those contradictions. In one place in the article it claims not changing the offense to maximize Tyrod shows he's not behind Tyrod. And in another it's paleozoic stubbornness. Exactly. Shooting at a million targets and not hitting anything. Thanks for the great example. From the beginning they've said they needed a guy to be successful from the pocket. Tyrod knew this when he re-signed here. And Tyrod's boyband-fanlike fanboys should have known it too. McD gave him a chance to be the guy they want and he hasn't succeeded. As for those other QBs, of course they're building around Wentz. He's the QB this regime brought in. He likely fitted their own coaching ideas. Same with Watson. This regime drafted him. Andy Reid brought in Alex Smith. Of course those coaches had schemes that were friendly for that QB. They're the coaches who brought in that QB. The one exception of your examples is Goff, and McVay was brought in specifically to build around Goff and make him effective. The Pegulas didn't bring McD in saying, "Build around Tyrod." I'm sure you and yours would have loved that but that's not even close to what they said. They just wanted the Carolina boys to build a winner down the line. Expecting them to treat Tyrod the way those three first round guys - one rookie and two second-year guys - and one guy (Smith) with a lot of playoff experience were treated shows a misunderstanding by you and by the article of what McDermott has said from the beginning. Again, he said to play for him a QB had to be successful from the pocket. Expecting him then to scheme around Tyrod misses the point and their direction. He hasn't been the least of them. He has been a major factor. And last year they were the 16th ranked offense. Yeah, the Bills ranked higher than that in scoring but scoring is a team stat. Yeah the offense counts for the highest portion, but scoring is done by defense and STs as well, and field positions is huge in terms of how likely the offense is to score. The defense last year put the offense in really good field position a lot (10th best average offensive drive start). While the defense was put in bad field position by the offense a lot (23rd best defensive). And in spite of that, the run game last year was really terrific, but the pass game was poor, just like this year.

That's a very untypical post by you. Completely and absolutely avoiding any substance whatsoever. Nice Job of saying absolutely nothing. Unusual as you usually bring up some irrelevant statistic and lead the argument off into left field. Didn't even bother with that this time. As for the "intermediate middle portion", nope, I'm ready to talk - as always - about the deep and intermediate middle third. The area he throws less often to. I get that you generally don't want to talk about this exact thing. And I get why. With you it's always part of it or an area near it or whatever. But that's the area where Tyrod has always had issues. It was good to see Tyrod throwing to the deep middle, by the way, last week. Threw there two times, bringing his numbers up to three attempts there in the whole season. And zero completions.

Oh, please. Nobody - absolutely nobody - has been saying that our offensive issues are totally Tyrod's problems. As usual people with weak arguments imagine arguments that nobody has made and then knock down those completely imaginary arguments. Everyone's aware of our issues at RT, concerns at RG, and it goes on. But yeah, Tyrod's problems are a large part of the problem. And this decision by McDermott will be a molehill by the time he leaves here, whether he's been successful or not. Look again, I didn't say "a misreading," I said, "misreadings." And for good reason. That article is packed with them. Not to mention consistently contradicting in one part of the article what he says in another. It was a very bizarre article, shooting at around 12 targets and not really hitting anything because of it.

That's not THE question or even A question. They haven't quit, they've been getting their ass kicked. There's a major difference.

It certainly does NOT solidify that Peterman won't be the long-term answer. One game, his first? Nonsense. It clearly says he's not ready. And likely makes it even more obvious that they're drafting a QB high, which was something they'd probably have done even if he'd looked pretty good. But this is way too little information to make any kind of long-term judgment on. Yeah, only in Buffalo. That's why they didn't offer him a contract in Baltimore. He's likely to be a long-term NFL player but unlikely to ever be much more of a long-term career starter than Fitzy or McCown, though a slightly better player than either. Always the guy they're looking to upgrade from. It really is too bad, he's a great person and a hard worker.

Of course it could get worse. Tyrod's only slightly below average. We could have a guy who was genuinely awful. But actually that would be better, as we'd have fewer wins and a better draft spot. We should've done a total rebuild instead of middling it. When it comes to draft spots, a worse team this year is generally better.

If he's as good as advertised, IMHO the odds are very low that the team would still suck. But assuming it happens, Bills fans won't find it a new experience or any more difficult to deal with than the last 17 years.

I don't care about Ducasse's past. He's playing pretty decently right now. That's a good thing. My guess is that they keep Glenn, but we'll see. Adapting to the players you have on the roster isn't the holy grail people here want to make it out to be. It's something you do if you have a weakness when you're good enough to really compete for a title. But in a team in our situation building a system that works for the long term is the key, not performing well in the first year. When you switch schemes one of the main things you do in the first year is see who fits and who doesn't so you can start to assemble the right guys. You don't turn away from the new system you're building so you can maximize this year's performance while not preparing guys for what will be expected next year and beyond.

It's a question worth asking. And while being worn out may be a part of it, it's not a majority or even close. And it's not Dareus' loss. The guy was playing less than 25% of snaps early and the defense didn't look worse when he was sitting. It may have had some effect but it's not the major part of things. Marcell wasn't playing all that well this year. IMHO it has a lot to do with teams figuring us out. It's a common thing in the NFL for units to do well for 4 - 8 games and then start to struggle and usually it's because teams have figured out how to counter what they do. In this case, it seems to have a lot to do with the fact that the LBs aren't a talent match for what this defense wants them to do, and teams have figured this out and are attacking it. It also has a bit to do with a line that's fairly tough but only has one real pass rusher, making them much easier to defend. Beyond that, maybe Kyle Williams is finally starting to show his age a bit because even the DL hasn't been as good as we'd hoped. And maybe they really are having problems with run fits as well. It's a new scheme. They're gonna have to bring in guys who are physical and mental fits for McDermott's defense over the next year or two. It does NOT all come back to the offense. This defense is not good.either.

Pretty much everyone knew - based on what we saw in preseason - that Tyrod was the best on the team at least at that time. Many probably hoped Peterman had improved as much as McDermott implied but it was wildly doubted even by folks like me who hope Tyrod isn't here next year. Few were adamant he start Peterman. Plenty thought it pretty likely before the end of the season. As for explaining, not much to explain. We should be valuing long-term results over what happens this year in my opinion and that of plenty of others. I figured Tyrod offered the best chance to win games this year. Again, most did. Can't speak for others but I personally didn't care about this year. It was obvious that we weren't going to compete for a championship this year, pretty much from last season. They tried to middle it by rebuilding but not totally, trying to win in the future and now. And yet each of those two goals hurt the other. Tyrod was the best QB on the roster. We still should've dumped him in my opinion to save cap money and because he isn't ever going to be a franchise guy. Instead we kept him and now we have five wins and may come up with two or three more, which will hurt our chances of getting one of the best QBs in the draft. One of the many differences being Dak is in his second year, not his seventh. I don't know whether Dak is good enough. I seriously hope not. But I believe that we know about Tyrod. Who by the way had a terrific run game beside him all of last year too.

Nonsense. Fitting the scheme is what Belichick demands his players do and if I remember correctly, he's done OK at making the playoffs. Pretty much all the teams with consistent success demand the players fit the scheme. You don't see Tomlin saying "Fellas, just make plays, I'll fit things in around you." In the first year, fitting the scheme does often make it very difficult to make the playoffs. After that, if the coach is a good one and he has a good GM working with him, it can be a recipe for sustained excellence. Not that we can be sure of how McDermott and Beane will do. But you generally can't till you see a few years of results. Not true. RW specifically said you can stay, Wade, if you dump your STs coach. Wade didn't.

People keep repeating this year after year and it's true in very very few cases. Among the absolute top guys who will get a ton of offers of lots of money, yeah. Pretty much everyone else is just worried about finding someone who wants them and will pay as much or more than anyone else. And finding someone to pay isn't really a sure thing. Last year's Browns had one win. And yet they got a pretty solid FA class. Unless you're the Mario Williams of a few years ago or someone like him, FAs just go where they're wanted and paid. Yeah, and we can continue to do it each year as the coaches switch systems and then suck. We oughta try this and go for three or four decades on the playoff-less streak.

Yeah, like no free agents joined the 1-15 total rebuild-driven Browns after last year. Oh, wait, they did. Sure, the Bills won't get any of the high-demand guys but they've made it pretty clear that's not how they'll use free agency anyway. They're from the build the majority of the team through the draft and fill in the gaps with low- and medium-priced free agents school. Which is really the way that the best teams in the NFL year after year, the Pittsburghs, the New Englands, the Green Bays, the Atlantas and yeah the Carolinas treat free agency. For all but the top few guys free agents mostly don't get a ton of money and they end up making decisions mostly around the contract offers.

Overall a fine post, but I do have some disagreements. I don't think they have much of a chance to move up to #2. As it stands, the first two teams in the draft are likely to have extreme needs at QB. If we move up, it will likely be to grab the #3 or #4 QB. My guess is that they will have some of that extra draft capital left over even assuming they go QB in the first. I think you're undervaluing Ducasse. Joe B has ranked him pretty decently in his play by play film analysis. Had him ranked as the best Bill on the field last week. I'm not thrilled with him but the need there isn't as bad as it is at RT and LB and CB. I'm also not as down on Cordy Glenn as you are. He was on the field a lot early in his career. His injury has kept him off the field lately but it seems to be one injury that's taking a lot of time rather than that he's injury-prone by nature. I'm still very hopeful that he could be in our future plans which would leave Dawkins available to maybe fill a hole elsewhere if he proves capable of doing so. Yeah, it'll all need time. And yeah there are a lot of weaknesses on this roster. But IMHO the draft will be better than you're predicting and being in the second year of our systems will help more than most people think.

IMHO the problem wasn't not telling everyone we were rebuilding. It was not doing a full rebuild. They tried to middle it and that resulted in getting enough wins against teams that now look bad that they might have a hard time getting a good QB in the draft next year. He should have jettisoned Tyrod before the season even understanding that all other options were worse in terms of winning this year. He should've brought in somebody like McCown or Fitz or Foles to QB this year and saved a bunch of money. Then they should've let Kyle Williams go and traded McCoy. I think he told everyone pretty clearly what they were doing. But they tried to do both things, working on the short and long terms both at the same time. Which meant they had problems in both the short and long term. Benjamin might help this year but he is likely to be here a long time. That was a move that might well turn out to be a terrific move long term. You couldn't say that if they'd given up a lot for him, but he was a bargain.

Sometimes that's true. Plenty of other times Tyrod's unwillingness to throw on time has created problems for the offensive line. And he's not being ripped for running too often. He's being ripped for sometimes running when he doesn't have to, and for being part of the problem (yeah, the OL is certainly not without blame!!!!) in creating those situations when he has to take off by not getting rid of the ball.