Thurman#1

You may be right. But this year, he was better than 10th. And that's a lot of the reason he's getting the 5th best contract.

Neither of those is a given. Drafting someone higher than the 5th is an excellent guess and bringing in a vet a very good guess, IMHO, but they are not givens. And there's plenty of reason to keep three guys around when none of the guys you have has proven himself. And yeah, roster spots are valuable but let's not pretend we'd have to get rid of Shady or Kyle Williams or something to keep a third QB. Was Reid Ferguson so wildly valuable last year? Or Deon Lacey or Tanner Vallejo? And you DON'T know the second young guy doesn't have the potential of your other draft pick. You think so but you don't know, anymore than Dallas knew Tony Romo had more potential when they kept three guys or any more than St. Louis knew that Kurt Warner had more potential than the other two guys on their roster. When you don't know what you've got ... and we won't ... keeping a third guy is not at all a bad idea if he's still developing. If he hits a ceiling, fine, give him the boot. If they just don't like him that much, great, see ya. If they become convinced that one of the guys they bring in is a sure thing, then yeah, the calculus changes. Right now they can't be sure of anything. Ask the coaches and the players, who have been saying they see it constantly.

As usual, Tyrod handles himself very well in interviews. This is certainly no exception. That's more your opinion than anything he actually said. The next week Philly runs a run-pass option from inside the five and converts it and they're brilliant. It wasn't the call. It was the execution. Nobody would expect OPI. You'd think the worst result would probably be 2nd down at the same LOS. If they'd called a run, it might have ended up a six yard loss or a fumble. I probably would have called a run there, but I don't think it was an awful call. And Tyrod doesn't appear to think so either.

You convinced me. Tyrod saying "We'll see what happens" two months before the decision was made was actually huge. It wasn't that the Bills simply didn't think a year of Tyrod Taylor was worth paying more than $30 mill guaranteed!! No, no. It was that he said, "We'll see what happens," two months before that made the difference. How could I not have seen this? Probably Whaley taped that answer and played it over and over to himself to retain his nerve in case Tyrod had stayed strong and forced them to pay the $30 mill guaranteed. Good lord. Must be nice to live in the land of fairy dust and moonbeams.

Did you really? Wow. I had a hard time getting myself cranked up to watch the games. I'm jealous of you in a way. I don't think winning is fun. I didn't have fun nine times this year and seven times the year before and eight times the year before that. Only two teams in NFL history have gone without wins. Winning isn't much, IMHO. Really, nothing less than competing for a championship would do anything more than give me minor fun. I saw this team get to the Super Bowl four consecutive times. And lose. Watching a very mediocre team go 9-7 did very very little for me this year. It ain't $18 mill he would count against our cap if we kept him for 2018. It's $23.6 mill. If he's on the roster for all of 2018 and then is gone, he'll count $18 mill against the 2018 cap and then $5.6 mill against the 2019 cap. $23.6 mill total for one year of Tyrod. When they've said that they need a QB who can throw from the pocket.

Gee, thanks for pointing that out. I'd thought it was a fact till you said that. Brilliant. But you're right, it's an opinion ... Like it's an opinion that Aaron Rodgers is better than Blake Bortles. No real way to prove it actually factual. Everyone knows it, but yeah, strictly speaking an opinion. Some stupid answer in a press conference two months before the negotiations come to a head have something on the order of a 0.01% chance of having any real effect on negotiations, particularly when the answer given is only an evasion anyway. So yeah, an opinion. But also pretty much the only sensible opinion. Of course it didn't hurt Tyrod's position two months beforehand to say essentially, "We'll see what happens." But if anyone is an expert on skipping on to the next subject and never commenting when he was wrong, it's you. I've been wrong a bunch of times. I admit it. I've done so many times on both boards over the years.

Yeah, you can win balanced. Can you win titles balanced? The record says it happens but unless you've got a QB who really gets respect in the pass game, it happens very infrequently. Went back and looked at the Tolbert play. It was 2nd down, not third down. 2nd and goal at the 18. And taking up a DB with Mike Tolbert is great, assuming it works out that way. On that play McCourty covered him and the Pats had nobody deep at safety. You're right that they certainly aren't likely to be in base at that time, but still might have one or two athletic LBs on the field and might still feel uncomfortable making the decision with little time to consider it, to put an LB out wide. It might produce a better matchup elsewhere. Again, not thrilled with the play. But if it had been executed differently it might have made it a shorter more achievable 3rd down play. In this case, Gilmore was on Benjamin with no deep help anywhere and he had to go back and around Tolbert. There was something there, though not deep. Tyrod didn't look at anything but Tolbert. The two guys on the other side were also mildly open with no clear options on deep routes. Putting Tolbert out there didn't hurt. The Pats had no deep safety. Going to Tolbert on the play doesn't seem to have been the best choice, though it should have been caught. But it would have given them maybe a third and goal on the twelve or so or maybe a bit better if they'd gone to someone else.

Yeah, I understand why you used Army. And what I will point out again is that that simply does not happen in the NFL, not since, what, the '30s? "Typically" more balanced? Try "absolutely without exception a great deal more balanced." I'm not sure what else was out there on the Tolbert play either. But unless we know Tyrod had been told not to look at other options, some of the blame goes to execution. Maybe a lot and maybe a little. As I say, I don't love Dennison. But I also suspect that an awful lot of the problem was execution. And I'm not against Tolbert being lined up outside. What kind of matchups does it bring about? Was a DB on Tolbert? Did that create a bad matchup elsewhere? Bad play as run, certainly, but maybe not a bad play as drawn up.

How does the Glennon deal look now? If they had it to do over again, would they bring in someone cheaper like McCown or Fitz? I think they would. The Bradford deal is a bit better but he was injured again and they might easily let him go figuring it's just too much for what he's likely to be. I agree with you that I think Tyrod's going to get a good deal more than $5 mill a year somewhere. But I'd guess that you're overestimating a bit. My guess is more like $8 - $12 mill per year for two or three year. Guess we'll see. I think you used the wrong verb tense there. When you say, "It has been considered one of the best values in football," you should have used the simple past, not the present perfect. There was a time when some people thought that. That time was exclusively in the past. The fact that nobody thinks that way anymore should be wildly obvious from the fact that he was forced to re-negotiate and take $10 mill less. And is now being asked about it again. And is unlikely to be here even though nobody argues he's the best QB on the roster right now. In any case, if he plays next year and then leaves, it will cost the Bills $23.6 mill on the cap, $18 mill on the 2018 cap and $5.6 mill on the 2019 cap. For one year of Tyrod Taylor. That isn't one of the best values in football, it just isn't.

Don't be sorry for having a bizarre opinion, dude. That's your problem, not ours. We're sorry for you on that. He didn't make a mistake there and he didn't lose any leverage. The Bills didn't think he was worth keeping at that salary. If he hadn't taken the cut he'd have been elsewhere. What he said then had no effect, any more than what he said this year did. Both were reasonable answers. Both opinions about a difficult-to-predict future. Neither had or will have much effect on his contract situation.

Yeah, of course I changed the scenario. You made your point with your scenario and I'm making my point with mine. Which is that you actually make 7 yards more often passing than running. Passes make more yards on average than runs do. Even if Tyrod is your QB. Compare his YPA to his YPR. And I'm also thinking particularly of one play by Tyrod, in one of his best games as a Bill, the 2016 Seahawks game. 1:17 left in the 4th, Bills down by six, first and 10. Tyrod back to pass, leaves the pocket early goes right, holds the ball, holds the ball, run, gets out of bounds for an eight yard gain. Great play!!! Eight yard gain on first and ten. Except that the next three plays lose yardage and the Bills turn the ball over on downs. And except that on that first and ten play the coaches film showed a guy wide open in the end zone, I mean, unguarded and open by close to ten yards, who Tyrod doesn't see and pulls it down and runs. The game was there to be won on a pass. Tyrod didn't see it. Ran the ball on what looked like a good play but was actually a back-breaker. On the Tolbert play, was that the only read? Was he even the first option? Had Tyrod been told to ignore his other options? I didn't like that Tolbert play either but different things could have happened. Great example, Army. Where's the modern NFL counterpart of that?

Most expensive draft smokescreen in history!!

A lot of times when reporters "know" the answer, the answer they get is actually different. It makes sense to ask the question. But I can see we're close on this issue. If the guy does give the expected answer it does seem like a waste of time. It's 3rd and 6 and a QB doesn't see a guy who's open for a ten yard pass downfield and instead puts up a nice run of 5 yards. It's not stupid. Yeah, runs count. But if you can't consistently pass, being able to run as a QB doesn't mean much. Sooner and not later you're going to be replaced. I'm no huge fan of Dennison, but the play people always talk about was the R-P option play that turned into a pass into the end zone and an interference penalty. People talk about what a horrible call it was. And then they talk about what a brilliant call it was to call the R-P option play for Foles that he turns into a passing TD. An awful lot of your success as a play caller depends on the execution of your players. Again, I didn't love Dennison or anything, but I also don't think he was as obviously terrible as some think. He didn't carry this team. Didn't carry them anywhere. He was their QB. Nobody can take that away, but the offense wasn't good and what carrying the offense did do was mostly done by the running game.

Well, let's agree to disagree. I think it could happen, but my guess is someone without a QB is going to give him more, as a bridge or with hope in their heart.

That's possible. But do you really think he'll be paid less than $5 mill next year as The Dude said? I think the odds are far against it.

That is a good point. But if he'd wanted he could have avoided the question. "I don't want to talk about the dollars right now," or "That's all in the future." Whatever. Instead he said no. Seems probable to me that he meant it. I think you're going to be shocked.

That's ridiculous. It's a reporter's job. And it was Tyrod's best chance to stay. It'll cost the Bills $23 mill to keep him for this one year of play. $18 mill on the 2018 cap and $5.6 mill dead money on the 2019 cap even while he's playing for someone else. It's an issue, and a major one. Give Tyrod the chance to say "No" if that's how he feels.

I wouldn't make it dependent on the OL, but from what has been said, he's making the plays in practice to make them think he's very much worth keeping. Beyond that, we'll just have to see. Can't see them letting him go this year, at least unless he totally stops progressing or something. It's not against the law to carry three. Happens reasonably often. I think the Vikes did it at some point last year, Denver. Jets, I think. It happens and it could easily happen here. And one of the main reasons it happens is because a team doesn't have a #1 they're happy with and so they want options, which is the situation here right now. My guess is he'll either be on the roster or the PS.

Cousins is worth that and more. You can't judge QB contracts by slotting a guy in at his current level. New contracts make old contracts look sick in this era of the constantly rising salary cap. At any position, but especially at QB, if you want to get the 10th best QB with a new contract, you'd better be willing to pay him somewhere around the 3rd best salary. Look at Carr, he's not 2nd best in the league. Stafford isn't best. Smith isn' t5th. New contracts cost more. Washington should have paid him a year or two ago. I believe that Smith is going to be good but not as good as Cousins and that when the Burgundy and Gold nation looks at this ten years down the road they're going to put it right in there with Snyder's legacy of a river of ego-fuelled screwups. Agreed that they put him in a good situation. But yeah, from what I saw it wasn't just that.

The thing is, Alex Smith wasn't a 10 - 15 range guy this year. He was easily top ten. Hell, his passer rating led the league. He played terrific this year. People seem to want to ignore this so they can be amazed at what he's getting. And you fall into this category, at least in this post. He played terrific this year. 1st in passer rating. 9th in TDs. That's not what you would have expected from Alex Smith. 1st in the league in TD/INT ratio, at least as far down as I checked (I didn't look at guys with fewer than 10 TDs.) 9th in YPG, while 13th in attempts. That's really good. 5th in YPA. Again, he was far far better than a 10 - 15 range guy this year. If he hadn't had this year, he wouldn't have gotten that contract. It's hard to guess how he'll perform next year, the way he has for the past five to six years or where he did last year. If I had to guess, it'd be about halfway between the two. He raised his level of play.

Good for Sully. And he's right that Gronk should at least have addressed it.

Yeah, but you didn't say, "unless the Bills decide to cut or trade him." Did you? Here's what you said: And then when I point out what you said, you stay in character and rather than just admit the mistake and say, "Oh, sorry, I meant ..." you instead try to slime your way out of it and slip in the weasel words about "unless they cut or trade ..." Yeah, but you didn't include that exception. You just said that Tyrod was bound to the Bills, something that would only be true if you thought it impossible that he would ever be cut. So since factually he isn't "bound to the Bills for one more year" much less at a fair price, any thoughtful observer would conclude you meant that you were completely sure he was staying with the Bills. Anyway, glad to see it was just ****ty writing, not that you actually believe that there's no way he won't be here. And if you touched a nerve, it may have been somewhere in your crotch. Oh, and again, I'm sure the 12 year-old girls must just eat up those cutie little emoticons. Do you dig One Direction too? Tell me you do, that would amuse me even more.

" ... is bound ..." Oh, the guy who thinks it's a fact that he's coming back laughs at anyone? A fair price? Man, that's a laugh. If he comes back for one year and then leaves before the 2019, it will cost them $23.6 mill against the cap, $18 mill in 2018 and $5.6 in 2019. Fair from Tyrod's point of view, maybe.

He has always been a good teammate and a pro. Absolutely nobody would have refused to take the field. But plenty would have caused problems in other ways, and Tyrod just clearly isn't that kind of guy. He's an extremely hard worker, serious, smart, classy, not a prima donna ... If only he was a good QB. Always been a good guy and a good teammate, though.

Yup, thanks to the defense and the run game. The pass game sucked. By the way, how did those playoffs go? How many points did our offense score in those playoffs? How was our passing game? How many other teams scored less against the Jags this year? Or got less yards? One each? Only a team with our playoff drought would be proud of this season. Sorry, 9-7 against a very easy schedule with a cumulative win-loss record well below .500 isn't something to be proud of. They've made their goal clear. Build a team that can consistently be competitive for titles. This team was a failure at that. And Tyrod was a major reason for that.