Thurman#1

Yup, it's so hard to trade up in the first round and teams are realizing it more and more. That's why last year there were two teams trading back out of the first five picks. That's 40%. It's why we traded back from pick 10. It's why the Texans were able to trade up to #12 to get Watson. It's why the Eagles were able to acquire the #14 in the Bradford deal. That's almost 50%, 6 of the top 14 picks, that were traded. Last year as it is getting so hard and teams are realizing yadda yadda yadda. All those factors you're talking about haven't slowed up trades. They haven't even cranked the price up all that much. Twelve of the first 32 picks were traded. Last year. The years people are saying that we should trade down, people always are on here saying "It won't be easy. Everybody wants to trade down, it's hard to find people who want to trade up." And now we want to trade up and we hear the same thing, the other way around. It's a bit hard, but not that hard. There are people who want to trade down. The problem isn't so much going to be finding a partner as it is paying the price. Oh, and your contention that the #18 guy and the #33 guy are equal in talent is simply not something GMs are thinking. If it were, we'd see FOs trading back from around #18 to around #33 all the time and not demanding much in trade. That doesn't happen, and the reason it doesn't happen is the huge amounts of information available on these players and natural human confidence give the GMs the feeling that they can draw distinctions in value here and more, a real confidence that it's possible. Just go back and look at the people in several drafts who were drafted #15 - #25. Now look at the people in the same draft who were drafted #32 - #42. There won't be many drafts where you'd trade the second group for the first.

Trading up for a QB ... IS building through the draft. People want to pretend it's not. It is. It's the best way to build through the draft, provided you get the right guy, of course. The bottom line is that it's this simple. If you don't have a franchise QB, getting one is your number one priority. Same with about 17 other clubs at any given time. So if you have a chance to get one, you take it.

FAs aren't sure things either. Picks are cheaper and you generally get 'em for longer. How good is Ivory these days? I remember really liking him a few years ago, but his last two years he's posted YPCs of 3.8 in 2016 and an awful 3.4 last year. I didn't see much if any of him so I don't know why, but that's a major dropoff from his older figures. On a team that managed 4.2 YPC last year, although Bortles managing more than 6 YPC certainly pumped that up. Didn't they have a pretty decent OL? Were teams keying on the run game?

The reason we have space next year is that we don't really have anywhere close to a team under contract yet. For OL starters under contract for example, they've got Glenn, Wood, Ducasse and Dawkins, backed up by Conor McDermott, De'Ondre Wesley, Aaron Green, Josh James and Adam Redmond. On the DL they have Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson, Adolphus Washington, Rickey Hatley and Marquavius Lewis. At LB, Milano, Tanner Vallejo, Nordly Capi, Xavier Woodson-Luster, and nobody else. The 2019 cap numbers would be better referred to as having an "INC" grade right now rather than referring to any specific figures. Yup, lots of space, but also lots of spaces on the roster. Contrast that to what Philly has under contract in 2019 and your draw will drop. They have a terrific team already signed for that year. And yes they could do restructurings, but that's not how fiscally conservative GMs generally operate and so far a fiscally conservative game plan is exactly what they seem to be using. They said the same thing last year, that they could restructure and kick the costs down the road. They didn't do that. It doesn't appear to be their way, for which I'm personally really happy.

Yup, this is a big concern. $25 mill in cap space right now, but if they pay Tyrod's roster bonus on the 16th, that would drop to $19 mill and if Tyrod's on the roster it would drop to around $15 mill available under the cap. And that's not counting the draft picks which will have a pool of around $6 or $7 mill probably, leaving us less than $10 mill. Which is one reason I doubt Tyrod will be here, but that's a matter for another thread. They could trade Cordy Glenn, that would free up a bit of space. Wood's official retirement will save them very little, unfortunately. They'll doubtless cut some other guys but there's not a lot of major savings to be racked up. I don't see us signing any expensive guys this year. They'll be measuring every buck.

Nah, that was actually a pretty good look. Know what a genuinely selfish guy does there? He doesn't even think those things, much less say them out loud. Did we ever hear T.O. saying stuff like that? This is a young kid growing up. And there's no indication whatsoever there that he was dogging it. The concerns about Sammy are production, injuries and the price it would take to bring him in.

Yeah, but they didn't trade for what the pick turns into They traded for the pick. The pick itself. Which has a pretty specific value. Again, it's not an unknown. It's #56. It's 340 points on the chart. How Beane and McDermott use the pick will be a totally different series of decisions. And those will be worthy of praise or censure. But it won't be the trade people will be talking about, it will be the decision on who to draft. Same as if you spend $500 to buy stock in a company that goes bankrupt. It wasn't the $500 in cash that was the problem. Spend that same $500 on Apple's first public offering in 1980 and become a zillionaire. It won't be the brilliant move of how you earned the $500 people will be talking about. If people do mention the trade it'll be a "and coincidentally, the pick which got them [the player] was from the Sammy Watkins trade. An interesting coincidence, yeah?" kind of mention.

No, you're misreading this, and at this point, willfully. He wasn't aiming this at everybody. He aimed it very specifically at the people on twitter attacking him for having injury problems. And yeah, to my eyes it was still a bad look for him. But if posting stupidly or rudely on social media were something only stupid rude arrogant people did, the internet would be a much much nicer place.

Nonsense. Sammy gave everything he had. He had major injury problems throughout his time here and his effectiveness was hurt by that, but you can't find one teammate, coach or person from OBD who will say anything like what you're saying here. It's all fans saying this stuff, the people who don't know.

No, a 2nd round pick is NOT an unknown. This particular one, for instance, is precisely #56. What's unknown is how well or poorly the picks will be used. But that's beside the point. We know the value of the pick. That pick isn't worth any less if they bollix it and pick a bust any more than your $50,000 is worth nothing if somebody cons you out of it or if you buy a lemon of a Porsche with it. That's your problem. The money's still worth $50K. In exactly the same way, that pick will have been worth 340 points on the draft value chart. That was it's value, that's what it was worth in the trade. Gaines this last year plus teh 2018 #56 pick is absolutely better than Sammy this last year.

"To all the people that have a problem with me being injured you guys go out there and play this sport it’s a 100% injury rate,” Watkins wrote. “I’m not first or last person that’s gone be injured difference from me and you guys y’all mad and I’m not get a life and goto work stop worrying about my job because I’m good on this end and forever will be losers most of you just wish to be in this position so continue working y’all little jobs for the rest of y’all lives since everyone once a response here go one have a blessed day.” Watkins later posted, then deleted, a clarification on Twitter: “Message wasn’t for fans for whomever have a problem with athletes being injured.” https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/oct/28/bills-watkins-to-fans-continue-working-yall-little-jobs-for-the-rest-of-yall-lives When you cut out that part it looks far worse than it was. Not a great look. Awkward, looked small, should never have been posted. But also not a big deal.

I'll repeat: "And yeah, it's the 2nd round pick that's the difference. A pick's worth isn't determined by how well it's used. It's determined by what someone would give for it at the time at draft time. Gaines this last year plus a 2nd is absolutely better than Sammy this last year. Who they pick will be a reflection on how talented and lucky our draft team is, not on how much the pick was worth." And the number of snaps Gaines played was mostly due to a knee injury that kept him out three or four games. Would've been nice if he'd stayed healthy, but he played a lot and when he played, he played very well. He forced three fumbles and had an INT. There's a reason he is going to get good enough money that we aren't expecting to be able to get him back. Also worth noting that of the three games in a row in which our defense was absolutely shelled, the Jets, Saints and Chargers games on Nov. 2nd to the 19th, Gaines missed the first two and returned from injury for the 3rd, the Chargers, which was probably his worst game. Was that because he wasn't healthy yet? Dunno, but he started playing much better quite quickly. But again, it's the 2nd round pick that makes this a big win for the Bills.

Yeah, we won it. Absolutely. And yeah, it's the 2nd round pick that's the difference. A pick's worth isn't determined by how well it's used. It's determined by what someone would give for it at the time at draft time. Gaines this last year plus a 2nd is absolutely better than Sammy this last year. The stuff about Sammy being selfish is a dust fleck on a molehill, but he still has serious questions about injuries and just about pure production. Not to mention how much he'll cost. Who they pick will be a reflection on how talented and lucky our draft team is, not on how much the pick was worth.

Huge? No, I think you're right. Big, maybe. People were very unsure whether he might or might not be franchised, which would have been a $15.982 mill hit. You're right that he hasn't done a lot but someone might pay him for potential. That's my guess. I'd love to get him back, but not at the salary I think he's going to manage to get.

Just looking at the first year, Harmon and Pike were not misses. Oh, nor Rolle. For a 7th, Rolle had an excellent career. And how can you list a guy like Richard Harvey as a failure. The guy was drafted in the 11th round and had a pretty solid 11 year career. And the percentages are always going to be lower when you look at someone who was picking in 12 round drafts than for somebody who was picking in 7 round drafts. It's also a lot harder drafting for a team that's doing a lot of winning. There are fewer roster spaces available because the team is already good, and you're drafting much later in the round. It's just harder. Polian was a terrific GM and drafter. It was very impressive there too until he handed the draft over to his son for the last three or so years of the Polian administration there.

Sure, that's what they want. They also want a guy with Allen's arm and Darnold's ability to improvise and Rosen's ability to go through reads and throw from the pocket and Jackson's ability to run. But realistically, what you need to put you in a position where you have a chance to be competitive for a title every year (a chance, not that you'll actually be there every year but a chance) is a guy who's in the top 10 or 12 QBs in the league. That's the kind of guy we have to be thinking we have a reasonable chance at getting. But as for those QBs you're referring to being unicorns, nah. You're referring to the elite guys, IMHO, the top five or six. Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Ryan, and maybe one or two more. None of them will get you there with a bad team but all of the can get you close with a team without major weaknesses.

A support system for a QB without a QB is like an umbilical cord with no fetus. You can build a support system anytime. The moments when you have a chance to bring in a really good QB are very few and far between and must be treasured and taken advantage of.

From your mouth to God's ear, Gunner. Nice work. Cracked me up. Nice catch.

6th highest scoring offense in the league? No. In Tyrod's years here, the Bills have ranked 22nd (2017, 18.9 PPG), tied for 10th/11th (2016, 24.9 PPG), and 12th (2015, 23.7 PPG). And again, scoring is best understood not as an offensive stat but as a team stat. Offense gets maybe 70 - 80% of the credit, but defense and STs can actually score and have a huge hand in scoring opportunities in terms of field position. During that year you're I suppose referring to, we ranked around 10th in scoring by STs/defense and also 11th in drive start field position. While giving back to the defense the 23rd-worst field position. The offense had a lot of help that year.

That's fine, but you're using the words "franchise QB" in a completely different way than most people do. Use them that way and you're going to have bad communication with nearly everyone you talk with. Most people would use "franchise QB" in a way that would mean that there are probably 10 - 18 or so of them. If you're using it to pick out only two guys and you want people to understand you, most people would probably say something like, "the best of the elite QBs," something like that.

Not really because his completion percentage was significantly over 60% in college. Yeah, against a lower level of competition, but he rang up good stats and play against them. Allen's sub-60% against that lower level is indeed a serious concern. Personally, I don't want him. If they draft him I'll cheer for him but I have enough doubts that I'm rooting for that not to happen.

I'd have loved to see us get Cousins. He's good enough to make a good team Super Bowl competitive right away. And yeah his salary will be tough to pay. A smart team will be able to get around it. Having said that, we have no idea whether teams have been put on or off the list because they wanted to be there or for whatever reasons Cousins wanted. The latter seems likely. In any case, this was never a likely way for the Bills to go. They've said from minute one that they believe in building through the draft, they've sliced salaries from the first minute they got here, and they both come from a very fiscally conservative team and have said nothing but fiscally conservative things. They have always been unlikely to build with Cousins. I think Cousins would have been terrific here, but that's not the way the process works. And then when he did decide he wanted him, Cousins was no longer interested. He's said that he wants to go somewhere he's comfortable and wanted. Seems like when he felt comfortable, the team wasn't yet convinced and that when they really wanted him, the GM/owner/coach weren't able to get Cousins back interested. Horrible way to handle this by Washington. They did the best they could with a terrible situation by bringing in Smith. But they screwed things up there bad.

Maybe. As of yet, the stats would not indicate that. But it could certainly be true. I thought if Sammy stayed healthy he was going to rip it up in L.A. But not so much yet. We shall see.

Nicely put.

Yup. And they'll be using all 8 even if they trade up and get a QB. Which is by far their biggest need. There'll never be a year that losing picks in a tradeup won't hurt. It always hurts. And there'll never be a year when "everyone is [not] slobbering over QBs of this caliber." That's what happens to QBs of this caliber. Or anywhere close, really. If there's any way for them to get a guy they want out of those top three or four guys from a tradeup, they should do it. If it's for some reason impossible, trade back and stockpile an extra first or two for next year. We need a QB. If it somehow absolutely doesn't work out this year, make it so it's possible next year.