Thurman#1

Yeah, we saw deer as well, but I'm jealous about the moose. Last trip (around 45 years ago) we saw a bunch of moose. Nothing this time, and my three year-old really wanted to see one. No moose and no elk this time but the grizzlies made up for it.

When people have to keep mentioning a face when they want to insult a guy, he obviously hasn't showed a lot of weaknesses. If anything that's a good sign for that QB. People are reaching and showing the main reason they don't like him is just that ... they don't happen to like him. As for your guess about Rosen's future, that's what it is, a guess. You could be right. Or just as easily wrong. Once Darnold and Mayfield were gone, I wanted Rosen over Allen though his concerns over Rosen's injuries were very reasonable. That's still my best guess, though I think Allen has a decent chance at proving me wrong. In any case Rosen sure looked good in that one game, though one game is way early to draw a conclusion either way. As is three games, really. Yup. And I'd argue the Bills have a much more threatening run game than the Cards as well, though neither team has started well running the ball. McCoy commands a lot more respect than either of the Cards RBs.

No, Roman wasn't fired after only two games. He was fired after eighteen games, two games into his second season. By a horrible head coach desperate to draw attention away from his own poor performance. Suggesting anyone do something because it's already been done by Rex Ryan while he was in charge of the Bills is not really a winning argument.

The ones who disagree with you are blowing you away? Yup, glad you can see that. Yeah, our offense sucks. No, it's not mostly on the OC, though he deserves a share probably. Just looking at the roster on the offense, this season always looked like a bad year, especially after McCarron wasn't as good as we'd hoped. The OL sucks. The receivers aren't never looked like they'd be better than a bit below mediocre and once McCarron played poorly the best likely outcome would have been Allen sitting on the bench and developing and Peterman being acceptable. We simply don't have a lot of offensive talent and what we do have is young and unproven except for the RBs. When there are problems in any system in life, here's the first reaction that generally comes up: QUICK!!! Find a scapegoat and have a knee-jerk reaction!!!! HURRY!! Don't stop to think!!!!!!! Generally unproductive and ineffective but it's the first and most common reaction you find.

If you judge by that standard, then you clearly "knew" Peyton Manning was bad by the end of his first year. "Bad. End of story," in your words, and yet, it really wasn't the end of the story for Peyton, anymore than what we've seen so far is the end of the Bills story. I'm not spinning anything. Three games simply isn't enough to know. It just isn't. Particularly not when you're judging a GM who's been on board for one draft and a half a year more, and a GM who promised his owner to clear up the horrible cap situation he'd been left by the previous GM by the end of this year.

That stat, percentage of targets that are catches, isn't a receiver stat. It's a stat that has input on both sides, receivers and QBs. And Cam Newton is not a wildly accurate QB. Not to mention that other things affect that stat. For example, if you're a WR who is targeted more on longer routes, your percentage will be lower, as completion percentages simply get lower the farther your pass is. Wouldn't be surprised if a WR who gets targeted on a lot of jump balls had lower numbers as well, though I can't say that for sure. In any case, if you do look at that stat, targets to catches, you learn that this year is an outlier for Benjamin, that he's doing much worse this year than he ever has. Could that continue? Sure, but that's not how you'd bet it.

Well, that's certainly one guess. Thing is, guesses can be wrong or right. And you have to wait to find out.

There's wifi in only a couple of places in the park, and you have to pay. Part of the time we were in those places but who wants to go to a place like that and spend time on the internet? Around half the park has cell service, but again, we didn't want to use our phones except to take pictures. Truly a glorious area and a great vacation. I've caught up with the first two games since getting back. Yikes. Watching them it was nice to know things improve a bit in week three.

I can top that from this trip. Saw three adult grizzlies, one of whom was a sow with two cubs, all wild, one a hundred yards away and the other two around forty to fifty yards away. I went to Yellowstone 45 or 50 years ago when everyone saw grizzlies because the Park had a garbage dump inside the park and there were usually half a dozen bears scavenging at that dump. I thought it would still be like that this trip but when we got there we discovered that that dump is gone and the bears aren't spotted nearly as often. On that earlier trip I saw something I've never forgotten as a result of it's being the single stupidest thing I've ever seen. In Yellowstone when you see cars lined up on the side of the road you know there are usually animals there. So we saw probably 30 cars lined up on both sides of the road and slow traffic. We just drove past and there was a massive adult grizzly within five yards of the road. And a guy had gotten out of his car, bringing his wife and son who was maybe eight years old. He had put his son on top of the grizzly to ride it, he was standing right beside it and his wife was standing two or three yards in front of him slowly lining up a picture. I asked my dad, "should we yell at him to get back in his car?" And my dad said, "No, we're not going to make any noise now, son." There were no reports of a tragedy so this moron got away with it but I'll never forget it. Whenever anyone mentions Darwin awards, that's what I think of. Oh, and one thing you learn in Yellowstone is how absolutely massive and powerful wild buffalo are. We must have seen several hundred, two big herds and maybe eight or ten solos. Man, those are some seriously huge animals.

Yeah, I also have very fond memories of Riddick as a very tough player, a guy I liked.

It may seem that way, but it's not. Last year, for instance, not one single team threw more than 63% of the time. And the top ten teams in throwing percentage, with a couple of exceptions, were throwing a lot because they sucked and were often playing catch-up. The top ten: 1) Miami 2) Detroit 3) Tampa Bay 4) NY Giants 5) Cleveland 6) SF 7) Green Bay ? Arizona 9) Oakland 10) NE

I wouldn't use the word "fault" here at all, considering that trading away Watkins made it much more likely they'd have the ability to trade up for a QB. Good WRs are much farther down the needs hierarchy than a franchise QB. His responsibility, along with Beane's? Fair enough. But it's simply too early to talk about "fault" on a team this early in the process of team-building. As with every other team in the NFL, they had more needs and wants than they could perfectly address with the picks and cap situation they inherited. So, yeah, they had to leave some areas on the team weaker while using their capital to address other areas. The defense looks like it might actually be coming together a bit. And yeah, OL and WR have conspicuously unaddressed needs. Again, it's really early in the team-buidling process. If they still have such obvious weaknesses after, say, Beane's third draft rather than his first, then yeah, it would be reasonable to start talking about whose fault that is. ... You argue elsewhere that "they were wrong about the guys that they chose" as WRs. It's too early to say. If Zay Jones doesn't improve after this, yeah, he'll have been a mistake as a 2nd rounder. But he might. It's still early. And while Benjamin hasn't been good so far this year, he's pretty likely to have production worth a 7th and a 3rd by the end of his stay in Buffalo, whenever that is, at least in my opinion. It's too early to have any kind of final evaluations on their moves. And yeah, they're responsible for the situation. But if they'd used more resources on WR they'd have had to skimp at QB or ILB or CB or their cap situation for next year ... somewhere. And people would be complaining about that.

Don't know where you got that, but elsewhere, STATS has the Bills in a five-way tie for 10th worst with five drops, behind Cleveland and Denver with 6, Jax and the Bengals with 7 and the Vikes with 9. http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=232&type=Receiving And three games and 88 passes are not a great sample yet.

It was very cool. The wife and daughter and I were flying out of Denver last Sunday after a couple of awesome weeks off the grid in Grand Teton and Yellowstone NPs. Fantastic, though I had pretty much missed everything Bills-related. Saw half the first game at Lodo's in Denver, which turned out to be great Bills bar but that's all I'd seen, and I'd tried to avoid the rest so I could watch it on Game Pass back in Japan, but I didn't have any idea how the season had gone. Anyway, we're leaving the check-in counter and I see that a smiling lady, an employee of the airline we're on, has given my little three year-old daughter a set of pilot wings. I thought that was sweet, so I went over to say thank you, and I noticed she had a Bills piece of jewelry right on her uniform. I asked her if she was a fan and she said she was, and we talked for a minute or two. She mentions player names and I can see she's a real fan. So I was about to say goodbye and my Japanese wife, who absolutely loves to talk to strangers, asks her why she became a Bills fan. And she says, "Oh, my son's on the team." I kind of did a double-take and asked who and she said, "Ryan Lewis." I pretty much blanked on the name. Stupidly, I had a kind of glimmer and said something moronic like, "He's ... wait, is he? Is he a linebacker or a defensive lineman?" Not my finest hour. She says, "No, he's a cornerback." Looking like a fool, I just said, "Oh, that's great, when did he ...?" And she kindly told me he's just joined the team. And then she says, "He's playing today. Are you listening to the game? Do you know what's happening?" It was just a bit after noon in Denver so it took me a minute to realize that the game must have started. Then she says, "It's 24 - 0." And she's smiling, so I'm like, "The Bills are up? Against the Vikings?" She says she's checking her scores app every few seconds, hauls out her phone and says, "No, it's 27 - 0," with obvious glee. We both got happy after that and talked a while. We had to go through the long security line so we had to get moving, but we talked for about five minutes. She said Ryan loved Buffalo and that they had connections in the city and to the team. I asked her about what the connection was and she said that she was related to Robb Riddick. Brother-in-law, I think she said ...? I was psyched as I remembered him well and had a chance to make up for my idiocy. "He was a running back, right? He was a good player." She just smiled and said thanks. It was a really nice conversation. She was a very kind person and talked a while to my daughter as well. You guys probably already know the Robb Riddick thing but as I say, I've been off the grid, and I just thought that was a very cool thing. She said the family went a little nuts when the Bills called to bring Ryan in. I've never really met a Bills family member before, so it was a really nice thing for me. She couldn't have been nicer. I wished her and her son good luck and we shared a "Go Bills."

The Bills have roughly $8.14 mill available under the cap this year according to Spotrac. Matthews has a $5 mill base salary. If the Bills traded for him, say next week, after game four, they'd have to pay him $3.75 mill against the cap. I don't see this happening, as it would leave them too little for injury pickups. Not impossible, but not a fiscally conservative move, and those are the kind they seem determined to make this year. If the Titans do release him as he says they will, what kind of contract would he demand / sign? I'd guess he might demand a one-year contract for similar money and get it somewhere. Maybe the Bills could finagle a deal that would be cap-friendly this year but more costly the next few? Would they do that and cut into their cap windfall next year? I don't know, maybe if they really like the guy, but I don't see this happening. We'll see, I guess.

Hope it works out.

Yeah, you build a team for success from the trenches out. That's why the Bengals have racked up so many Super Bowl championships. Oh, wait ... You build a team for success from QB first and everyone else later. If you worry the guy might get injured you draft a McCarron and put your guy on the bench for a year, especially if the guy you draft is widely considered a guy who needs development. The Colts drafted Peyton Manning first thing and played him behind a bad OL. The Cowboys did the same thing with Aikman. Those guys were more NFL-ready than Allen. My guess is that Allen isn't ready but if he is, plenty of great QBs have taken a pasting behind bad OLs for a year or two. And that's nonsense that they haven't prioritized OL for years. They've been a good OL for a couple of years. The Wood and Incognito problems weren't a matter of priority. IMHO the Bills wanted McCarron to play all year, but he simply underachieved.

Either that or if we'd offered less the Bucs might have turned us down. And maybe Arizona would have traded up above us and grabbed Allen. Ideally, you don't overpay. In fact, if you have a move you're determined to make, you pay what you have to. And yeah, you're judged on how successful that move was. If Allen doesn't work out, they'll be blamed, rightfully. If it does work out, they'll be praised, rightfully, and nobody will give a damn that we gave up two 2nd.

Look, I agree with your feeling that we should have tried a total rebuild. It's what I would have done. But there are legit arguments on both sides. The owners must have been thrilled with making the playoffs last year, lucky as it was. Thrilled. And the players notice when a new regime tries its best to win from minute one. It might easily bring out more of the best in them. I'd've totally rebuilt. But they made it clear from minute one that that's not what they were doing. Now we'll know how things went a couple of years down the road. Both ways can work. It's not like there's only one correct way. You say if they wanted a QB high and a QB of the defence, they should've gone about it differently. And yet, they got a QB high and a QB of the defense. Got it done. And it's not like running a total rebuild last year would have produced a good team this year. They still would have been awful this year.

It is absolutely too early to judge. Again, not a single guy drafted by Beane here in Buffalo has played more than one NFL game. Ignorance isn't the excuse. Sometimes things take time. Sure, it'd be great if your kid graduated college in a year and a half. But blaming someone for not graduating college in a year and a half is similar to blaming a GM this early. Some things take time. This is one of them.

Yes, you've got to have studs. No, not all studs are jerks. So yeah, you can have a team with studs who have character. That's what this group is aiming for. Jimmy Johnson had a different plan and a different group of players. How did Jimmy's acceptance of bad character guys work out for him in Miami? Where were all the bad character guys in New England or Philly last year?

On the contrary, it was certainly very obvious to them that they were likely to have problems at OL once Incognito and Wood left, and even more so when they traded Glenn as well. Nobody's dumb enough not to notice this. But they had other priorities they decided to handle first. You can't prioritize everything. Attempting to do so only shows a lack of priorities. Another thing that should be very obvious is that you can't address every weak area each year. They had problems this year at one CB, at LB, at OL, at DL and at WR. Oh, and did I forget QB? There was never a chance to fill all the possible holes so things would look just fine this year. Particularly for a team which had been in serious cap trouble and with a GM who had promised the owner to get rid of that cap problem this year. It simply was not going to happen. It's bizarre to me how people expect every hole to be filled even though it doesn't happen on even the best teams with relatively few holes. It's what makes it difficult to be an NFL GM. There is no perfect solution and even good solutions tend to take several years before things start to look good if you're starting with a lot of holes. And we are.

What's apparent is that anyone who thinks he can judge a GM this early in his tenure isn't correctly grasping how the system works. His grade is an INC. And will be so for three or even four years. The guy has been here for a year and a half and run one draft. Not a single player he drafted here has played more than one NFL game. It's not just early, it's far far too early.

Getting a QB high was an absolute necessity. Far from making no sense, it was the only move that did make any sense, except maybe bringing in Alex Smith or Kirk Cousins. Calling it a waste is missing the point. There are very very few ways to bring in a guy with a legitimate shot at being a franchise guy. When you have one of those chances you have to go for it even if it's expensive. They had to get a guy who might grow to become the franchise QB we've needed for so long. Unless they wanted our run of prolonged mediocrity/badness to continue. And yeah, OLs take time to develop. So do QBs. But it's a hell of a lot easier to draft a good OL even if you're winning than it is to draft a good QB. And yes, moving up delayed filling the holes on the roster. It's worth it. Same as in house construction, building a good strong, stable foundation delays the building of the walls and the installation of the plumbing and everything else, really. But it's necessary to build that strong foundation regardless of the delay. Same thing here. It's necessary to bring in a legitimate potential QB because it's almost impossible to get one when you have a good enough roster elsewhere to consistently win eight or nine games. You never get the chance to draft a potential franchise guy. This is the only way to get it done, and also the smart way. If we're rebuilding as you say (I'm not sure I agree, but put that aside), then you have to keep understanding what a rebuild is. It's not something you do if you want to have a great chance to win the year you trade up and draft your QB. You are sacrificing the short term for the long term. Which is a great idea if the long term is very successful, and true rebuilds increase the chances of extreme success. What was your prediction for the year? Did you think we'd win eight or nine or ten games? People who predicted a lot of wins this year weren't quite understanding how long it takes to build consistent success when you're switching schemes and the regime before you put you in awful salary cap shape.

A solid plan? Yes. And it involves waiting to see what happens with the guys they kept, observing the consequences after far more than one game, and acting accordingly. A solid plan that would make us look like a good offense this year? Nope. That was always a fairly low possibility. And that's OK. Football personnel plans should be long-term. If we'd wanted to look as good as possible this year we should've kept Tyrod. Or brought in Alex Smith or Kirk Cousins.