Thurman#1

Ah, people get it. I didn't have to bother answering, this says it all. Thank you.

Yeah, facts do matter. But they only prove what they say. Yeah, he was 23nd in rushing for RBs and 44th in receiving. What does that prove? It proves that in last year's situation, with everything as it was, with that OL and with Frank Gore as his backup ... and as a rookie ... that he was 24th in rushing and 44th in receiving. That's all it proves. You can infer some things, but ... ... you want to ignore the fact that his yards per carry was 4th in the league among RBs with more than 100 carries. That says far more about you and your need to prove we need an upgrade at RB than it does about the facts or your ability to put them in reasonable context. I think people are missing that you are actually no longer talking about improving on Yeldon, but instead trying to say that Singletary isn't good enough. Folks, he's said this several times in this thread. Here's one earlier time, and the one I'm replying to is the most recent. He thinks Singletary just isn't good enough : Implying that we need an upgrade at RB1 is absolutely laughable. Laughable. The FO ... and the fanbase minus pretty much you ... is perfectly happy with Devin Singletary as our RB1. At RB2, Yeldon appears acceptable, but yeah, they could easily want to try to get either an upgrade or competition at RB2. Could we possibly pick up one of the FAs still available or draft someone later on ... maybe even to keep three at RB? Yeah, absolutely. Oh, and by the way, what happened to your contention above that "a Super Bowl team should have a RB in the top 10, if they can." Haven't heard you mention that lately now that I pointed out how Andy Reid must be crying in his beer that sure they won the Lombardi but doing so when their best RB ranked 39th in the league means he just doesn't feel that last year was a success.

Please. Nice straw man. I'm supposed to have said, according to you, that "everything except [my] opinion is horse manure"? Again ... please. I was pointing out one particular argument, your contention that his production meant that Singletary was the 20th best RB in the league and that any Super Bowl team needed a guy in the top ten. I apologize for the "manure" comment. Poorly chosen word. Let me choose a less harsh word, and say instead that it was ridiculous, particularly as you only have to go back about two months to find a Super Bowl team without a single RB with production in the top 23, much less the top ten. And again, the winning team's most successful RB was ranked #39 by production. I am saying specifically - and I'll repeat since it seems to be necessary - that thinking that you can judge how good an RB is by looking only at how many yards he put up last year is nonsense, as it would mean Saquon Barkley would be the 16th best in the league and that Melvin Gordon would be the 32nd best. Which again, is on the face of it absolutely unreasonable. But if you want to argue now - switching yet again the ground of your argument - that Singletary sucks, hey, go to it. Doesn't make any sense to me, but ... whatever. You go, boy. Further, if we need an upgrade in the RB passing game, first maybe we could throw it more to Singletary and have him work on his skills, and second, as it happens, Yeldon has proven himself a fine pass catcher. Or we could bring in an FA like Lamar Miller or Ty Montgomery. Or draft Zack Moss or Eno Benjamin, to pick two of several with some pass catching success.

Again, simply not true. Right now, our #4 WR is probably McKenzie. To say that he is pretty close to any of our top three is utterly ridiculous. Yes, you're right that "there are a few positions where there are not enough high calibre players in the league to allow a similarly skilled backup." Yes, you're dead on about that. A quick rundown of the positions where that is true are these: QB, RB, OT, OG, C, TE, WR, DT, DE, LB, S and CB. In fact, if I missed any, you can throw those in too. As I pointed out earlier: And as for the idea that yards last year shows how good you are ... ridiculous on the face of it. If you could measure how good an RB is exactly by his production last year, then Melvin Gordon is the 32nd best RB in the league, and Saquon Barkley is the 16th best. The idea's ridiculous. The FO last year had a spectacular man crush on Frank Gore and as such weren't interested in putting our #3 out there much. But the few times when he got out there, Yeldon did a pretty good job. You may not like him, but the Bills do. And again, that #20 thing is utter horse manure, as can be seen by checking the production of KC and SF's backs last year. What we need is a guy who can do a good solid job. They appear to think that Yeldon is that guy. Though again, it's very very possible that they'll bring in another RB in FA or later in the draft.

Nonsense in every single way. First, there's no particular reason an SB team should have an RB in the top ten other than because you, some guy on the internet says so. Singletary is #24. San Francisco's highest-ranked RB was Mostert, at #25 and KC's was Damien Williams at #39. I somehow doubt that KC is telling themselves that last year was a failure for them because even though they took home the Lombardi their best RB was only #39.

While that's certainly true, it's also true at most positions on the team. If any of our starters pulls a hammy or gets a high ankle sprain, the level goes down. If Allen goes down? Diggs? John Brown? Beasley? Will we lose something when maybe McKenzie, Duke or Foster steps in? Any OT? Oliver? Edmunds? Milano? Feliciano? Poyer or Hyde? White? Knox? I'm not really including the positions where we have platoons, but it's just as true there. The platoon guy steps in and is decent and capable but then who platoons him? We have more solid depth than we've had in a long time, but nearly any starter being hurt will cause problems. Same with most team and positions in the league, really. Again, I expect another RB will be brought in but I greatly doubt it's in the 2nd, or at least not unless Swift or Taylor somehow fall a long way or something like that.

I don't think it's absolute. Fans here don't, but it's clear that the FO really likes Yeldon. Having said that, I think they get another RB, whether it's in the draft or FA. To me, less of an absolute need and more of a position that could definitely use an upgrade and more depth.

Makes sense, though I know very very little about Simpson and nothing about Heck. I like the other three picks, though, and think that if Duggar is still available he's one of the most likely options. Joe has them trading up to get him. I doubt they trade up as far as he guesses, but it doesn't seem impossible. I doubt he wants to give up his third, even if he gets a 4th in exchange, myself. We'll see.

Yes. Exactly this. Thank you.

We're agreed, then. Although I could see getting an RB in either FA or the draft if we do get another.

Well since this is predicted to be the best and richest WR class, if they bust at about the same rate they always do, it will still be the best WR class in history. Which is a reasonable prediction at this point. Seems like a pretty good chance we'll grab a WR and an RB at some point. The difference being WR at #2 seems like one reasonable possibility.

Please. This is not hate. Beyond a few trolls, hate for Allen doesn't exist here. Just because it's less than unconditional belief and faith absolutely does not mean it's hate.

As usual ... when you like what's said, discuss it and approve it. When you hate what's said, attack the messenger. Which has no logical value whatsoever but feels good. IMO that has Allen too low by maybe 3 to 5 spots. Darnold's too high, I think, and Allen's better than Minshew. But whatever.

Yup, I am indeed living in the past. Specifically, looking at what Beane has done in the past and what it shows about him and how he operates. More, I look at what he's said in the past. And he's never said or done anything to indicate that BPA is a strategy that is, "not appropriate to a team that is in the top 10 or so." Know who believes that? You. Not Beane. Beane's past does indeed show that he goes BPA. He says he will. Then he does it every single time. And then he tells us that he did it. That's how it works with him. He's a BPA guy. And he's continued to say so this year. Every time he's asked. I get it. You don't like that. And if you were the GM of the Buffalo Bills, that would worry me deeply. But it doesn't concern me in the least that there's a guy on the internet who believes that drafting for need is a good idea. That's fine. If it were Beane who thought that, I'd gird my loins for another few years losing. We've had a lot of GMs through the years of the drought who would make moves for need. Thank goodness Beane believes just the opposite You perceive a need at RB2. Fine. And you think that having a need MUST mean that it MUST be addressed as early as possible in the draft. Again, fine. But that's classic drafting for need and classic willingness to reach to fill that need. Again, totally fine that that's your opinion. But it's not Beane's.

Yeah, I get that you think I'm wrong. Thing is, I'm not. I didn't say we didn't move up as you imply. I pointed out that the situations were very specific ... every single time. Which is correct, they were. You're the one who was wrong here. Here's what I said again, and it's true again: Each time we traded up, we were either acquiring a franchise QB with a huge stash of draft capital we'd built up specifically for the purpose, and that other than that we didn't leave ourselves any empty rounds, trading only picks from rounds where we had two or more. That's the pattern. And if they continue it, it would make total sense that they would at some point during this draft trade one of our two sixth-round picks to move up. That would move us up very little in the 2nd round, though. And if you feel the need to kid yourself that we didn't use BPA ... hey, that's your business. I'm not going to try to persuade you of something you're not willing to believe. But for others reading here, the huge majority are very very aware that Beane constantly talks about BPA, literally every single time he's asked, for a very simple reason, and that that reason is that he's a BPA guy. He uses BPA because he believes in it. You're right, "there's no magic Big Board in the sky," but there actually is a Big Board at OBD, probably in Beane's office, and he'll use it. Again, that's fine if you want to ignore that, go ahead. And yes, they've built a very balanced team. They build the core for the future through the draft. And they fill in holes and balance the team by filling in needs through FA and occasionally trades such as the Diggs trade. Every year he talks about using FA (and trades) to fill in the gaps so he cau use BPA in the draft. Again, he's said so a million times and he's backed up his words every time.

This is a perfect example of how to talk yourself into a reach. More, you're wrong at nearly every one of those five steps. Your second idea is that he gets difference makers in the draft. Nonsense. He sometimes gets difference makers and sometimes not. Oliver, Edmunds, maybe Singletary, Allen was developmental, hell they weren't going to start him till late in the season till they were forced to ... that's about it as far as difference makers. What he does is pick the BPA. If he'd wanted difference makers he wouldn't have grabbed Ford - especially when they clearly are still trying him at tackle rather than guard - when guys like Greedy Williams, AJ Brown and Mecole Hardman were available. Third, yeah, he didn't get an RB in FA. Yet. No particular reason to think he won't though. There are five or six very solid vets sweating it out watching their price go down. That could easily still happen. And we do have a 2nd running back, just not one with any glamor. Fourth, if they do grab an RB at some point, it could very very easily be a change of pace back, a hammer such as AJ Dillon or Perine or Eno Benjamin. The kind of guy you're talking about is what you want. Which is fine. But no reason to think it's what Beane and McDermott want. Was last year's RB2 a home run hitter? And fifth, there is absolutely no reason to think that the guys beyond the top five are JAGs, none whatsoever. This is a terrific draft for RBs in the mid-rounds. We get it that you won't be happy without an RB in round two. But that's precisely how reaches happen, when guys fix on what they want and then let confirmation bias have it's merry way with them. It's not how this FO operates, though, luckily. You're not hiding your desperation, I'll give you that. You come right out in your last sentence and say it, "If ... we lose and ... use BPA at #54." Using BPA isn't losing. It's the smart play. It's their draft strategy and a major part of what has gotten this roster so good so fast.

Yeldon's 4.0 could do it, if necessary. It looks like the Bills love the guy. And for RBs who have 150 carries or more, Yeldon's 4.0 would tie for 20th in the league, which isn't bad. Not great either, certainly. But not that bad. I expect them to bring somebody in, but I'd bet they don't feel compelled so much as happy to do so if the opportunity makes sense. No need whatsoever for them to overpay or reach. And while I don't agree with you on that assertion, if RB2 is the biggest need on the roster, that's less a sign of what a big need it is than of what a solid roster they've put together. My guess ... a 3rd, 4th or 5th in this draft and a happy bunch of fans later. I hope it's A.J. Dillon, myself.

Of course players took discounts. Some anyway, a few. It's not like that only happened to the Pats. It happens to the top five teams or so in football every year. Not most guys, but some will give discounts. As for the cheating, yeah I think they did it. But it's not the main reason they were a great team year in and year out. It's irrelevant in this discussion.

Love most of this post. Great stuff. But voiding the Pats rings is deeply twisting the data. EDIT: And Gunner is right when he says that removing McNabb as an overpay doesn't make sense either. There's always an overpay, that's how it works with a constantly rising cap. Sometimes the guy getting the overpay will be a Mahomes, and other times a guy like Cousins or Goff. That's how it works at every position, the rising cap means rising salaries which generally means whoever got the most recent deal and has a possibility of being really good will get what looks right then like an overpay.

Jerry Hughes will be 32 when the season starts. If you can start developing a guy to take over, this year would be an excellent time to do it. https://socalledfantasyexperts.com/aging-curve-nfl-defensive-players-dl-lb-db/ https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1683775-when-does-age-catch-up-to-nfl-players I respectfully disagree that backup RB is our #1 need. I think if it came down to Yeldon as our #2, Beane and McDermott wouldn't have a big issue. Not that they won't pick up an RB, it seems very likely but it's not as big a need as people make it out to be. Further, the draft isn't for filling needs in the current year. That's FA's role. The draft is where you try to get your core players, particularly past the first round and on a roster stocked like this one. That's their draft philosophy and it makes sense. Having said that, my guess is that they'll bring in another RB either in FA or later in the draft. IMO they've done a brilliant job in FA and with the trade of putting themselves in a position where they don't have any needs even approaching desperation. They've tried to do that every year and this year the roster is really filling in nicely. They've given themselves the luxury of going BPA, which is precisely their goal. And yeah, it's a slightly modified BPA. They're not going QB in the 2nd even if one is the BPA. Probably one or two other positions even beyond the painfully obvious of punter, kicker and LS. Guard, maybe? Center? And thirdly you have to consider the positional values. This year is a terrific year for WRs and RBs. You can get one of those in the fifth round that you'd ordinarily have to pick in the 2nd or 3rd. So you can wait a bit on those and still get great value and that has to be factored in. Overall, though, Beane is in position to go BPA, with positional needs not forcing him to reach. In fact, positional surpluses this year can allow you to fall back for value. And value is a good thing.

Many problems with this. First, Beane wasn't here the first year. And second, the second year was the year they gathered an absolute ton of draft capital to move up and get a QB. Then they were lucky enough to have a lot left over that they could not reasonably guess they would. They had worked out a much more expensive deal with Denver for the #5 pick, but Denver backed out when Chubb was still there and despite having to wait a while, the Bills were lucky enough to get the QB they'd have taken at #5, but much cheaper. Excepting the year Beane wasn't here and the trade up for Josh Allen, Beane's never traded up by trading away a pick that left a round empty, with the exception of if they'd already taken a pick for that round earlier. But wait, what about the Edmunds trade, you say. Nope, that's a good example. They emptied the 2nd round to make that trade, but had taken two guys in the first. So they'd already sort of taken their 2nd rounder, but they'd got him in the first. Leaving out those two, the Allen and Edmunds move when they had a bounty of draft capital, they've traded later round picks for small upward jumps, retaining a say in the round they were trading out of. Other than the Allen trade, which they wildly stocked up for in advance, Beane has never traded up emptying a round. If that continues, it would mean they might trade up this year with one of their two sixth picks. And if that's the kind of trade-up you're talking about, then yeah, I think they might do that too. They currently have two picks in the top 120. Three picks in the top 160. The odds Beane will give up one of those picks in a trade-up are pretty low, I believe. Below that, maybe, and especially one of the two sixths seems quite possible.

Deeply. There are many reasons, but Belichick's too old, for one.

Yeah, they'd probably both be big nickels. Some teams are using their tall receivers as slot guys to create matchups where typical slot corners can't handle them. If you're not facing one of those big WRs that week you can put a big nickel on a TE, in zone, as a box safety ..... The great thing about guys like this is they can do so many things that having them in isn't a tell on whether you're playing zone or man or what.

The main option for moving up for an RB in the second is the one you left out: DON'T. Again, this is a year with terrific RB depth. Starters will likely be drafted as late as the 4th and 5th this year. RB is the second-best position this year by most reckonings, after WR. That's the kind of year you wait and get your platoon guy later. A lot of really backs there ... Eno Benjamin, Perine, Joshua Kelley, McFarland, Darrynton Evans, or my favorite, the 6'0" 247 pound A.J. Dillon, who ran a 4.53 40 and pancaked people all year while being outrageously productive. And yeah, highlight reels all look good but this guy's traits are outrageous and he showed himself every bit as productive as those traits would indicate. When you can get a guy like this in the 4th or 5th, why would you spend a high pick on a platoon guy? You wouldn't.

Lock is a bit strong. Pretty likely, though. It's not going to mean as much to make the playoffs from now on, though. Two more creampuffs won't make the product better.