Thurman#1

Yup. She comes from a teaching background and came up with this stuff in experiments on kids. But it was a case of a universal phenomena showing up in one group, kids. I use this on my kid all the time. Dweck advises you to never say stuff like, "You're so smart." Or "you're really good at that." Because then you're complimenting their talent and when they reach a situation where they fail they think, "Oh, I'm doomed, I'm not talented enough. Whereas if you compliment them by saying, "Oh, you worked so hard," or, "Oh, you tried a new way there, didn't you? That's great, you're really trying to think in new ways. That's really good," then if they fail they think, "Well, if I keep working and trying new ways, I'll eventually get it. I constantly remind myself to be doing this with my 5 year-old. Dweck has a good TED talk where she tells about this far better than I can. And all in under 10 minutes.

Part of that - by no means all of it, but part of it - relates to the fact that in those last ten drafts they've only made six first round picks. They have traded them away, and generally done pretty well on the trades. But yeah, they're an interesting example. And yeah, the Pats drafted so well for so many years, and then the wheels fell off lately. I so wonder what happened. Did they lose a draft guy or two, like an assistant GM at that point, or a director of scouting? I haven't kept track closely enough, but it's a remarkable turnaround.

Hadn't seen your original post. Interesting stuff. Both of these fit very well with what I've seen on the field. I'd have guessed a bit further down but not much. Thanks.

Nice! Heh heh. Yeah. I really don't watch the NBA anymore. Haven't consistently in decades, really. Do they have coed dancers? If they do, that's pretty much proof this is fine. Other than a smidge of prurient interest, which won't disappear as long as there are some beautiful women in the group - pretty much a 100% probability - I've never had a lot of interest in NFL cheerleaders. This is just fine. Wildly unimportant, but just fine. Smart for the WFT. They need to repair their atmosphere and this is a good small step. As for the rest of the league, whatever. It's not in any way a problem or worth much comment, IMO. I think I already spent too many words on this.

Not sure about Trai, but Edmunds made his pro bowls by being very good, despite the fact that some here don't seem to realize it. No, he's certainly not elite, but he's among the small group of guys in the AFC who would be considered good enough to get that recognition when he's healthy and in a defense that has guys understanding and doing their jobs. “Are there more plays out there? Probably so, but he makes the Pro Bowl. I think that's legit. I think he's respected by his peers. I think sometimes in your own fan base or your own house, sometimes you can be more critical of your own than seeing how they compare across the league.” - Brandon Beane Yup. https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/bills-offseason-questions-is-it-guaranteed-that-tremaine-edmunds-option-will-be-picked-up/article_71f18538-7d38-11eb-afd2-9be536c83833.html

Yeah, I like him too. May not even leave Cincy, but if he does, I hope they're in on him.

Replacement value stats wouldn't show whether or not RBs are dime a dozen. They would only compare RBs to RBs, not RBs to WRs or other positions. The point about RBs isn't that some aren't a lot better than others. They are. The point is that RB these days is a lower impact position, and that only the very best ala Chubb have much of an effect on the team as a whole. And FireChans, you might want to correct "Vale" to "Value" in your first sentence for those unfamiliar with this stuff.

A hurry absolutely carries the value it always does. A hurry forces a QB to do something he doesn't want to do, whether it is to move from his spot or to throw early, force him into the arms of another player or whatever. Hughes is still getting the job done. Unlikely to be a candidate for a cut. We need more pass rush, not less.

Fair enough that you disagree. You're claiming the freedom to communicate unclearly, and nobody can take that away from you. To communicate clearly and well should - I personally believe - be the goal in any public communication. Message board or not. If someone wants to be understood correctly, he should speak clearly. But some people have other priorities, and that's their prerogative. And no, you don't have to say "I believe" or "in my opinion" before every opinion, to be clear. I pointed out four easy alternatives and there are surely hundreds if not tens of thousands of ways to point out you're expressing an opinion. But if you don't mind being misunderstood easily and often, who am I to challenge your priorities? Hell, I'm just a guy on the internet. On the other hand, I have the right to say something along the lines of "What you have there is an opinion, it is certainly not a fact," if you state an opinion as a fact. I'm not a mind-reader, just a text-reader. Even if your intention is to give your opinion, if I can't understand that from the writing, I'm gonna react to what you wrote, just as I do for everyone. I just do my best to understand the words on the page or the screen, myself. I think that's what most people do, they assume what someone wrote is what they meant. I don't think of myself as bright enough to elicit unexpressed meaning from text. Worth pointing out, though, that Simms spends a great deal of time and care pointing out that what he says is opinion. 01:30 "Zach Wilson is clearly the number one quarterback in the draft for me." 04:00 "To me, he is the clear-cut number one quarterback in this draft. I love Trevor Lawrence, there's a lot I like. But I think Zack Wilson and him, there's a separation there, for my money and what I see and what I've evaluated." He even prefaces the whole thing with a similar statement, "What I'm evaluating here is what I see on the field. Yeah, I hear rumors and all that kind of stuff, OK? But all I can do is see what I see on the field and use my knowledge that way, and that's really what my rankings are all about." That was only the first four minutes. He goes on like that constantly, in pretty much every podcast. Why? I think it's because through long experience he's found out that, people misunderstand him. They hear it as, "I know this, 'cause I'm just that smart." He's been faced with that misunderstanding often enough that he knows if he wants to be correctly understood he's got to say this.

The oldest pitch in the world. "We have more money than just about anyone else."

I guardedly agree that he could still throw. It's hard to be sure, but it looked that way. But IMO it was less that Rivers was coached all that much better and more that the Indy OL was very good and the Pittsburgh OL was very bad. Ben had to get rid of the ball very fast on nearly every play, and that did get predictable and thus easy to take advantage of.

Not really buying that 100%. It's true somewhat every year, and this year will be the same. But I expect teams, as usual, to target a few guys as their main objectives and go for those guys early. And then comes time for patience. IMO it'll be much like every year, but with lower prices and fewer competitors for the FAs.

2021 tag value for Dak Prescott: $37,690,800 2022 tag value for Dak Prescott: $54,274,752 https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-dak-prescott-tops-12-franchise-tag-candidates-in-2021-plus-each-positions-projected-tag-salary/ And I believe the next year it goes up by 44% again. There's pressure on the Boys to get a deal done. He's worth signing even if you're overpaying a bit. But if I'm Dallas and I'm determined not to overpay, I draft a QB early this year, possibly with a tradeup. It would be a mistake, but if you're determined not to overpay it's the next-best alternative even if it's much much worse in its impact on your team.

It always shocks and surprises me when people start a negotiation by asking for a bit more than they're likely to get. It also shocks and surprises me when there is disagreement on the value of a unique product or service on the open market.

Your words. "_________ is ___________," is not grammatically how you present an opinion. It's how you present a fact or something you believe is a fact. "I've got _______________ as _____________." or "_______________ looks like ________________." or "I believe __________ is _____________." or "Doesn't seem that way to me." Those, and a thousand alternatives and a million variations are ways to present an opinion. You know all this. You find Simms using this kind of language constantly.

Come on, Bill. That's an opinion, too. A less controversial one than his, certainly. Could easily turn out to be absolutely correct down the line. But it's not a fact. We'll find out who the best QB in the class is a few years down the line. Right now we can't even agree on who was the best college QB. I have great respect for your opinions, but that is what this is.

Can't answer for Gunner, but I can point out that Miller is going to cost too much for us. The likelihood there is very low. I think JJ Watt will play up to the salary Arizona gave him. He'll be worth it. But he wouldn't have been worth it for us in our cap situation. Yeah, it's worth remembering. Mike Remmers is a decent right tackle. Far from great, but OK. In the Super Bowl he had to play left tackle. And he can NOT play left tackle at any kind of reasonable level.

Heh heh. Whip it right. He's both quick and fast. Hightlight packages always look great, but still:

The whole reason people hate the new onside kick rule is that it nearly eliminates suspense. They are converted so very infrequently that fans don't worry if the other team is trying one. Apparently the new conversion rate is slightly less than 10%. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/risky-business/2020/risky-business-week-12-onside-kicks ... whereas rates under the old rules were closer to 13%. That's the sweet spot, IMO. Kicking teams historically recovered onside kicks between 15% and 20% of the time in a given season. In 2018, in part to changes on the kickoff play, that number dropped below 10%. https://operations.nfl.com/gameday/analytics/stats-articles/why-fourth-and-15-from-the-25-insight-into-the-nfl-s-experiment-with-an-onside-kick-alternative/ And I think 4th and 25 would probably have a conversion rate even lower than the new onside kick rule that people find unsatisfactory because conversions are so infrequent nobody worries about them. I do think maybe you're right that 4th and 15 might be a bit easy. 4th and 17, maybe? 18? Something along those lines might be better, IMO. A fifteen yard penalty would result in a conversion, and that's probably not a good idea.

In terms of likelihood of a game turnaround and being better in synch with the spirit of the game, this would be best. Don't see it happening, though. They'd have legit safety concerns.

If they did learn something from the Morse experience, it was probably that they'd gotten an excellent player at an undervalued but highly important position. But that at that point when we switched to a different blocking scheme, going to a more power-oriented straight-ahead scheme over the pulling we'd been using before, that that had taken an excellent pickup and made the guy a poorer fit in the new plan.

Depends on the money and the other knock-on effects. If you upgrade your guard and you then can't sign Milano and Daryl Williams and you replace them poorly, you might easily weaken the team overall. It's a complex system. Every move has knock-on effect that aren't direct results of each move but nonetheless follow as a consequence. Beane is very aware of this, of course, but he didn't know the major cap drop was coming. The teams that are best set up to handle this are the ones with a lot of cap space. Including the Patriots.

This. It's his own foundation making the decision, and yet people try to manufacture outrage. Kinda sad. Change happens. Always has, always will. Society looks at things differently as we learn and change. Always have and always will. Pitiful how people get upset about it.

From what little I can tell, he wouldn't fit us. He's a pass-rushing 3-4 LB. Very talented guy, though.

"Only" is a bit strong. The Raiders got Waller off the Ravens practice squad. Kittle got 515 yards his first year and 1377 in his second. But yeah, draft and develop for a while is maybe the commonest way to get a good TE, and you're probably right about Knox being our best hope for a game changer this year.