Thurman#1

I almost never vote in these things. And I won't start now. But anyone voting no is just a sad sad specimen, honestly. 13 - 3 and widely considered to have one of the solidest rosters in the NFL. Some folks just don't get it. EDIT: Ah, I see, there are two questions and one is pretty weird. OK, fair enough. "Will you be good with whoever?" isn't necessarily a yes. But "do you trust this front office?" should be a yes. Any other answer just doesn't make sense.

IMO you're framing it wrong. It's too simplistic. There is no one player who will have much direct immediate effect. Maybe if we were drafting top twelve or so, but we're not. At 30, you want guys who will give you some impact. If we win the SB, IMO it will be about the development of our younger developing guys, the continuity continuing to have good effects, a lack of bad injuries, a whole bunch of things coming together.

You're the second person to complain. There's nothing wrong with this at all. Very human and nice.

JOK, Rousseau, Oweh or Ojulari. Those were four guys I wanted and two I thought wouldn't be there. Man, things fell well for us.

5th in the league in broken tackles per rushing attempt in 2019. https://buffalowdown.com/2020/06/09/buffalo-bills-devin-singletary-ranked-top-10-elusiveness-pff/ Nobody's saying he's great. He does lack great speed. But he's elusive as heck.

I have to admit you make an excellent point here. You're exactly right that Buffalo's being a top four team in the league does indeed make a compelling argument that spending money on defense can be an excellent idea in many cases. But again, you miss out on the point about how good this defense is, which is that they took six games with all the new people to get together and gel, but after that they were very good, a top ten unit. During the last ten games they were tough and did their share. An awful lot of the reason the Bucs won the Super Bowl is that they had an excellent defense. But realistically, we spent a bit less than $7M on defense than offense last year. 52.32% vs 48.78% on offense. That is not a major difference. Fair enough that it's about matching strategy to scheme. Again, the Bills are one of the absolute best teams in the league, proving that they're doing that. It is indeed a passing league. That's why you need to spend a larger part of your resources on pass offense and pass defense. Of course, you tend to be right that the best teams spend more cap bucks on offense. But that's not necessarily some kind of conscious prioritization, as much as it is simply that most teams that have a top ten QB on a second contract are going to be tilted towards offense. The QB is 20 - 25% of the cap these days for a lot of these teams. Those teams tend to be among the best most years and of course they spend more on offense. But look at KC in 2018, the year of the first conference championship appearance. They spent $75M on defense and $73M on offense. Look at NE in 2018 when they beat the Chiefs. They spent $10M more on offense and that was when they were paying Brady. When Allen's second contract hits the cap, the Bills will probably also tilt more towards the offense.

Your analysis is inherently flawed because it's filled with straw men and nonsense. Cracks me up that you are going on about, "Who cares that KC or TB spent late round fliers on Dlinemen?" Honest to God, that's laughable! TB's 2019 defensive draft, as I spelled out completely, didn't "throw in a late round pick on the DL." I get that for some people it's not worth checking their facts before talking but all you had to do was read the post you were replying to. Their first five picks were on defense. That was their 1st, their 2nd, two 3rds and a 4th. The late round guy came on offense, not defense, one offensive pick, their 6th, before they went back to DL in the 7th. Same with the Chiefs 2018 draft, the first four picks all on defense, a 2nd, two 3rds, a 4th, all on D. The first and only pick on offense a lonely 6th rounder, though they did use another 6th on D. As for the four year totals, you throw out that nonsense as if the defensive picks were all "late round fliers," and that's just simply not true. For KC, looking only at the 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders the last four years they go five guys on offense (again, in four years) and seven on defense. For Tampa the same analysis of day one and two players for the last four years shows that they drafted six players on offense and ten on defense. The best teams in the modern NFL are absolutely in no way slanting offense in the draft.

Looked to me like he was eyeing McKenzie and throwing ahead of him. IMO not a no-look.

Seriously doubt that he's going higher. I can imagine it not hurting him much as teams already knew. But this isn't likely to change team's minds. Just fans and draftxperts. The teams seriously considering taking him will have demanded a medical history and if not actual access by team doctors than access from a doctor who is trustworthy. The link says Robinson is hearing the Saints might move up to get him. "Might." Could be true. Could be smoke. But if it's true it's saying he may be in Tennessee's plans at #22 and the Saints might possible try to get ahead of that. That's not higher than expected. It's in the area (admittedly a wide range) where he was expected to go.

Not a joke at all. Four thousand-yard seasons. One time he was voted to the pro bowl and one alternate (and neither were with Buffalo). Yes, a ten year career. Only three years were in Buffalo before he forced his way out. For a guy drafted 23rd? Who had to sit out a year after being drafted? For a guy who averaged 4.0 YPC for his career? And 3.88 YPC in Buffalo? A terrible draft pick. A solid but unspectacular career for McGahee himself. Ouch. Yeah, good point, damn it.

I agree that those four are things they're looking for. I think they're looking for RB quite a bit later. I didn't see anything in the presser indicating RB in the first was a strong consideration. And I know you disagree with this, but I think an iOL would be a very reasonable possibility in the 1st, particularly if they don't like the leavings at edge or corner. Including a guy who can handle all three interior spots and also a guy who could play RT but also maybe slip inside to guard. You 've made it clear you don't want a tackle unless he can play at LT. I think that's on the table. Much further up than #25 or #30 and I wouldn't do it but IMO picking a guy who could potentially out-compete one of our guards and thus either have either Feliciano or Ford becoming a stronger backup, or possibly even Feliciano taking over at center would make us stronger at two or three positions rather than just one. But we'll see.

I really doubt they go Etienne even at #30, but it is certainly not impossible. But yeah, the tradeup to pick Etienne appears nuts. TBD runs a tight ship on draft rumors, so if these came from us they are a smokescreen. The more obvious and reasonable possibility is that the rumors come from other teams the Bills might have contacted. But the idea that we would call and ask about value for a tradeup and then throw in for free the info about who we're targeting is pretty nuts. Why would we do that? The part about it being Etienne they trade up for is almost certainly guesses from the other FO who gave up the info to McShay, if this is actually a real thing at all. If they're desperate for Etienne, the odds are good he'll be there at #30.

Double face-palm, and a headshake in sadness. Trading up could easily happen. Picking Etienne isn't a high possibility, but it could happen. But both? And up to #19? Wacky. More, the #30 and a 3rd rounder doesn't get them close to the #19. They'd probably have to give a 2nd and a 6th. Which they won't, but that's probably what they would have to do to make this trade. And Zero, yes they flaunted the metrics when they picked Allen. But not the metrics on where to pick a QB or how much they would have to move up to get him. They played the metrics brilliantly there. What they flaunted was the perception that a guy with a completion percentage like that could never become a franchise QB. And there's no equivalent perception on Etienne. It's generally felt he's going to be a good back, just nowhere near good enough to be traded up for in the 1st, and especially with such a high trade-up. The situations aren't even slightly comparable.

Hunh? Singletary is murder in open space. He makes guys miss. No, he can't fly, but yes he can punish teams for leaving him alone short. His longest completion in 2019 was 49 yards and last year it was 34. And while I don't remember the specific plays, he ran very few actual passing routes, was more a safety valve. He can hurt teams in the passing game. Yeah, that's right. Saw a thing yesterday saying that a lot of the new model ILBs are the same way, smaller guys, which is interesting, as run stopping LBs are in a way the RBs of the defense, looking for the hole and running through it.

Yes, fair enough, I think. And tall striding RBs are somewhat untypical.

Different styles, yes, I couldn't agree more. Different top speeds, yes, Coleman's a lot faster, though Singletary's training may have brought them a bit closer. But they both hit top speed in about 10 to 12 yards. Any RB who doesn't is pretty untypical. Devin and Tevin aren't that similar except maybe the names.

You say that "drafting more defense does not work in the NFL of the 21st century. The faster people accept that, the better." And sorry, but that just does not make any sense. Both the Chiefs and the Bucs have put up overwhelmingly defensive draft classes in very recent years. And yet they both seem to have found a small measure of success. Chiefs 2018 draft: 2) Breeland Speaks DE 3) Derrick Nnadi DT 3) Dorian O'Daniel OLB 4) Armani Watts S 6) Tremon Smith WR 6) Kahlil McKenzie DT Bucs 2019 draft: 1) Devin White LB 2) Sean Murphy-Bunting CB 3) Jamel Dean CB 3) Mike Edwards S 4) Anthony Nelson DE 5) Matt Gay K 6) Scott Miller WR 7) Terry Beckner Jr. DT And neither team in the past few years has countered that with an overwhelmingly offensive draft in any given year. Over the past four years the Chiefs have drafted 15 defenders and 9 on the offense, and the Bucs 17 defenders and 11 on offense and 1 kicker.

Singletary's catch percentage was 70.7% as a rookie and 76.0% (38 for 50) last year. It's easy to remember that awful play against the Chiefs, but he actually has caught pretty well. I think he fits just fine in this offense. Singletary's longs are 38 and 51, along with 49 and 34 yard completions. Just saying.

There are never 30 players with first round grades. We hear this same thing every year, it's just that it hasn't been important to us because we haven't been drafting so far back in a long long time. You hear two general variations on it over and over. First is the "There are 10 - 15 blue chip players" deal. Every year. Then there's the "there aren't (somewhere around 25 usually) first round guys" deal. Again, you hear it pretty much every year.

Doesn't make sense. You say - reasonably - that you believe you don't want JOK at Mike. And then you want to trade away our Mike to get him. That would leave us with a hole and nobody to fill it. Just doesn't make any sense. Trade up for JOK? Sure. Trade away Edmunds without anyone to replace him? No. Illogical. They found money to pay their two good LBs in the McDermott system in Carolina, with Thomas Davis and Kuechly. Plainly this is not something they're unwilling to do. Might they trade up for JOK if he falls and use other picks to do so? Yeah, one of many reasonable options.

Great article. Makes me even more hopeful.

I'm not thrilled with him, but I wonder if they're leaning towards him. But production is the wrong word. He had a lot of production. And no sacks. Sacks does not equal production.

Fair enough. I think it's more the OL than the RBs, but we'll see. IMO, you can't call what happened here with McShea's rumor as an "action." It's a rumor, perhaps even a smokescreen. Might be true, but IMO it doesn't make sense for a team that's calling around about a trade-up to tell everyone who they want to pick. That's just not something that Beane would be likely to do. I can imagine him calling around about a possible trade-up, and word about that getting around from the other teams. But not that he'd reveal who he was targeting. Like you, I trust Beane. He makes mistakes, as does everyone, but his methods are just plain smart and state-of-the-art. That's what you want out of your personnel guys.

Fair enough. You can't be sure. 10 - 20% chance he doesn't start. But it's by far the most likely thing. And yeah he was pretty meh inside. He spent the whole year before at tackle. Then the year they want to move him inside, there's no real off-season, and then beyond that in week two he gets switched from left to right guard, which is a massively difficult thing to do, more difficult than going tackle to guard. If he hadn't gotten injured, late in the year it would have been pretty reasonable to start expecting him to really start to look at home. Under the circumstances, though, it made no sense. It was a terrible situation. You're right, it's no sure thing, but he's likelier than not to make some major steps upwards.

A potential pro player prognostication proposal? Piquant proposition! Um, Humphrey. I don't have any confidence in that. My best guess, honestly, is Tryon, but you already took him. I was very tempted by Oweh and Rousseau as well, but I guess I think they end up trading back because the top four at CB and DE are each gone. Jeez. EDIT: Dammit, Oweh.