Thurman#1

Yeah, I'd do it, and I love Josh Allen.

Different deal. Every team loses guys as a result of not being willing to pay market value. Scheme fit also when coaching changes. Relatively few have enough good guys at any position that they decide to give up a young, cheap guy with some talent who hasn't finished his development in his first couple of years because there just isn't room enough for all the good players. That's what Beane did here, and he did it just before the guy hit his tipping point because they had an awful lot of pretty good players at OL. The Peters fiasco was a horrible decision, but a decision of a different kind.

The obese Star Lotulelei sitting out the combine. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2013/04/02/star-lotulelei-heart-test/2047363/

Well if this was the problem, why didn't you say so instead of repeatedly going on about 300+ and 300#? There was never any problem with his understanding there, you were the one using the straw man. And another. You quoted this: ... and replied this: You acted like you knew his problem was a function of being overweight. You have no clue. It could be. But equally it might not. You say, "that issue is usually very much a function of being overweight and obese." The issue being referred to in the post you replied to was that he "had an ejection fraction of 44 vs. the norm of 55-70. That's a precursor to CHF." And you report that this is usually a function of being overweight and obese. Apparently you feel it's got nothing to do with HBP, age, diabetes, hypertension or simple heart disease. In that case, lots of NFL linemen must have that problem, because you're right that many to most are obese. Could we see the data on that, as Royal has asked you several times? Could you show us where just being obese is "usually" causing this. I'd love to see the data, particularly in guys between 22 and 30 who exercise to where they're strong as bulls? "At risk players" comprises a very wide spectrum. You don't know where he ... or anyone else ... falls on that spectrum. What we do know, though, is that a Bills player who is very much non-obese, had no known pre-existing conditions and is much younger than Star, Tommy Sweeney, got COVID and missed the season with myocarditis, the same heart condition that young, non-obese pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez got after catching COVID, the announcement of which came just as Star was considering opting out. And your idea that opting out was good financially for Star is just butt-stupid. He had zero motivation to take the opt out if you look at if financially. Zero. Either way he receives the guaranteed money, the exact same amount. But he either receives all of it in 2020 or $150K in 2020 and the rest in 2021. Same amount a year later. Any person with a functioning brain cell knows that getting money earlier means it can work for you. It's always better to get it early. Opting out also meant that when he was coming back for year 3, he'd be a year older. At his age, that's significant. He shortened his career length by a year which will very likely cost him money. Whenever the Bills let him go, he'll be a year older and be paid less by whoever he plays with. If he retires, he'll have a year less to get to work on looking at a new career. Financially this was bad for Star. He's already been paid tens of millions. If he wanted to maximize his cash, he'd have played. He didn't do this because it made sense financially. It sure looks like he did it for the most obvious reason around, that he was worried about COVID ... and for good reason.

You ask if there's something you're unaware of? Um, yeah. That being the problem. And I'm not the guy with the details. Unless you have access to all of Star's private medical records and are thus as aware of what his problems are and what details might have been made available to him anytime over the past seven years that might not have been reported in the paper ... you just don't know. Again, neither do I. Nor does anyone but Star and his doctor. And by the way, what the articles about Star's second group of tests all say is that the first reading "might" have been caused by a virus and was "likely transient." "Likely." And since then we haven't heard any more. Has he? So I don't know the full extent of Star's "preexisting condition." Nor do you.

That's certainly one opinion. Nothing particular behind it, though. He could very very easily be here through 2022 or even 2023. No reason to think he won't, and that they didn't draft a 1-tech space eater definitely raised the odds he'll be here at least a couple of years. Now, if he regresses, yeah, he'll be gone after this year. But he easily might play very well. No reason to think he won't.

Both Beane and McDermott were here when we signed Lotulelei to a 4 year $40M contract. And both had been on the Panthers and seen his work first-hand for years ... they knew what they were getting. I think it's pretty clear they value the position quite a lot. Having said that, it's possible they felt there wasn't good value at that position where they were drafting, though it sure looked to many of us like there really was.

This is my guess. In year one, he really looked promising, especially late in the year. He could easily be a guy we're very confident of when Star comes out. I'm hoping so. Has always seemed like a great guy. Rooting for him.

Great, then if we're talking about maybe Fromm or maybe Jordan Devey, who took two snaps last year, you'd have something. Having a legacy of doing nothing ain't Lotulelei. Star does a lot. He doesn't run up the stats many would like to see, but he does what McDermott wants him to do, and as long as he hasn't regressed, he will make life quite a bit easier on Oliver and Edmunds.

Dude, assuming that by # you mean "pounds," he completely gets that, has all along, and is still waiting for you to answer his question. Star weighs more than 300, thus 300+ pounds is what he is, and that's how we all read it.

This looks to me like, "I'll give a pass to the guys I like, but not to the guy I don't." Again, Star had a pre-existing condition and we don't know what his doctors have said about getting vaccinated, and he can't have been very confident that this will have been a safe environment for a guy who's still worried about COVID. I have no idea whether this is still a concern for him, but it certainly could be.

It's happened, what, once in five years? Ten? More? I don't see any particular reason to think it will happen again that way anytime sooner than the space before it happened last time before Teller, which was ... I don't know, does Ross Cockrell count? Woods who they wanted to keep but couldn't with their cap problems post-Whaley? Does Marquise Goodwin count? Kiko? Cordy? Now, giving up on guys who then prove solid players elsewhere, that happens more the stronger your roster becomes and the more the cap forces you to choose cheap younger guys over giving second contracts. That I'd anticipate soon. Who? Hodgins, maybe? Corey Bojorquez? Jaquan Johnson? Harrison Phillips? Maybin's year with the Jets? Levitre? Marshawn forcing his way out of town? Poz, maybe, though I think they liked him but just weren't willing to pay market for a guy who didn't fit their switching system. Whitner having a decent career for where he actually should have been drafted rather than where we mega-reached for him? Holecek, maybe, though that was more about scheme fit. Ronnie Harmon, though that was more about him trying to throw Kelly under the bus. Ahhhhhh, Lodish, maybe, as he made two more SBs with Denver? Once in a blue moon these things happen. For those saying Ford, unless he gets injured again there's every chance he'll be starting here for years. He was greatly held back by being forced to switch positions, sides and missing out on the offseason due to COVID before his second year.

Yeah? What I see is that they've got the Bills adjusted cap at $208M now, and the adjusted cap usually includes the unspent money from the year before, which right now is around $3M. So that would seem to mean they have it at around $205M right now. That would seem to be $10M more. Am I missing something? Right now, we're 26th for cap space in the league for 2022. They could. But some of those moves might not be in their best interest. And to remind people, right now we have 54 guys listed for that year 2022. Many of them are questionable or even unlikely to be with the team next year (Tommy Sweeney, Darryl Johnson, Antonio Williams, Syrus Tuitele, Tariq Thomposon, Josh Thomas, Quintin Morris, Nick McCloud, Olaijah Griffin, Nate Becker, Mike Love, Tanner Gentry, Brandin Bryant, Reggie Gilliam, Isaiah Hodgins, Jake Fromm, etc.) Yet we won't save money by cutting them, they're pretty much all minimum guys, so anyone we bring in will cost that much or more. Plus guys like Addison and Sanders who are listed but will actually either just be dead money or will require new money to re-sign. Plus Rousseau and Spencer Brown aren't counted at all yet as they haven't signed contracts. It won't be a year with a lot of money hanging around, looks like. Things are likely to be tight.

You're not comparing them? Why not? You absolutely should. They were picked within a couple of spots of each other, or would have been if the Bills had taken Etienne at 30. Both are serious passing threats. Both (if you consider Etienne possibly going to Buffalo) went or would have gone to teams built around sensational QBs throwing to excellent WR corps who throw a very large percentage of plays. The situations were very parallel indeed. And injuries happen. It wasn't all that freaky. It happened to all our WRs. It's not that weird that it happened to their two tackles. You see major room for improvement over Singletary and Moss? More reason for comparison. KC obviously saw major room for improvement over their 2019 RB room, which was Damien Williams, Darrel Williams and the aging LeSean McCoy. And yet they got actually fewer run yards after drafting Edwards-Helaire, and about the same amount of passing yards to RBs. And being done with Singletary is nuts, I think. The Bills were one of the two or three worst teams in the league last year in terms of yards before contact and yet Singletary still managed 4.4 YPC. There's every indication that with better blocking he'll once again be a very productive guy.

He also said in the post-draft PC, "We were never targeting a running back or anything like that. I think that got overblown, it sounds like." That's not absolute proof, but it's pretty indicative. Certainly means they weren't trying to trade up for Etienne. Logic said that he'd said in the pre-draft presser that we didn't have a home-run hitter on the roster. I said I didn't think he'd said that after we got Breida. I was correct. He said in the pre-draft PC that neither of the top two guys were home run hitter, not that we didn't have one. In fact, we do have one. I don't know how many snaps he'll get, but we've got one. Precisely, "I don't think either one of our backs are home run hitters." He said "either" which is not used for three or more. Logic also said, "Beane literally said that if a running back added something to the room that they didn't already have, they'd absolutely take him." Again, no, he didn't say that. "They'd absolutely take him"? No, he never said that, nor would he. He seemed to indicate he might consider them in that situation, but he absolutely did not say either of those things Logic said he did, and you seemed to back him up on. Guess we'll have to disagree on what they'd have done if Rousseau wasn't there and Etienne was. I'd bet that the way things fell, if Rousseau was gone but Etienne was there but everything else was the same that they'd have been grabbing one of probably Joe Tryon, Elijah Moore, Landon Dickerson, Christian Barmore or Teven Jenkins. Maybe Onwuzurike or Eichenberg as well. I can definitely see situations where they'd have taken him, but the way it fell, it sure looks doubtful to me.

In the post-draft presser he cast doubt on it. Not to mention their lack of depression when he was picked in the Embedded video. I'd agree they had interest. IMO their CBs they valued highly enough to pick there were gone, and if that had also been true for pass rusher and probably another group of four to six guys, and he was still there, they'd have taken him. I think there were legitimate ways for it to fall that they'd have been picking him if they weren't trading back. I greatly doubt they'd have traded up for him. Agreed with your first paragraph. People on here are comparing McCaffrey and Etienne and that's not a particularly reasonable comparison. Etienne didn't go #8 as McCaffrey did, and that's for good reason.

Yeah, because look at the difference Edwards-Helaire made to the Chiefs as a pass-catching back when he was the cherry on top that took them from a Super Bowl championship to a ... well ... a Super Bowl loss. Give the Chiefs a chance to go back in time and pick an OL or something else instead, and they'd do it in a second. I totally agree with you about "organization changing RBs." But what the Bills need as a cherry was better work on both lines, IMO, and in pass rush in particular. Plus the WRs to stay healthy into the postseason. Disagree. Did Edwards-Helaire make KC's offense better? Their run game was better the year before, and they still are mostly a passing offense, just like us. Did they throw a lot to E-H or did they just keep throwing to the receivers and Kelce? It simply is not automatic. Possible? Yeah. But far from automatic.

Hah. Hardly, but you don't have to be a body language expert to know what's going on with these guys. They aren't playing poker, they're in their own draft room. Past Embedded versions have shown them be very happy and very disappointed and it was very very easily visible. As it was here.

I don't know. You may be right, I haven't paid much attention. But over the last four years he's averaging 75.2 YPG. Which is still very good. But in his first three years he was averaging 95.9 YPG, which is insane. There are a ton of factors, availability, QB, injuries, offense, targets, receivers on the other side, etc. But he isn't what he was. He looked like a hall of famer for a while.

Probably a top three or four class, particularly in terms of depth. Which is just what they were saying about that class originally. A massive disappointment up top in Watkins, who has absolutely minted cash for disappointing numbers his whole career. And yeah, Logic is right that for whatever reason, OBJ looked historically good and lately has only been pretty OK. It's fair to wonder if we've seen his best and it's in the past. And yet that class still has Evans and also Landry, Cooks, Adams and Robinson as well as a number of others who are pretty solid.

Fair enough, but my personal opinion is that they weren't. In the Embedded video they show the Bills room when Etienne was taken. There were no heads shaking, no obvious expressions of disappointment. Beane may have said it again, but originally that "home run hitter" being missing comment came before they picked up Breida, who is a home run hitter. No, he's no Etienne, but yeah, he's a guy who can hit home runs.

Talbot said he "believed" this, and the word is too strong. Etienne said he "was thinking." Guess is a more reasonable verb there. Better yet, why not use his own word, thinking. No, he values every pick as if it's valuable. And they are. He's very cognizant of the differences of value between picks in different rounds.

Pipe dream.

We did have no continuity that year. And it showed early in the year. By the end of the year they really were pretty solid, though.

Good stuff. Makes a ton of sense.