Simon Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 I don't know how many dozen times I've read how Fitzpatrick might be the better option right now because he was consistently willing to take shots downfield and get his WR's involved while Trent refuses to pull the trigger on any sort of long ball. It's been said so many times by so many different posters that's it's simply been accepted as a fact with no evidence to back it up. It didn't seem entirely accurate to me so I just went through the playbyplay of every Bills game this year to see whether or not this is true. And guess what, it isn't. The differential is so slight between the two that it is barely worth mentioning. According to their averages, Fitzpatrick throws downfield 0.3 times per game more than Edwards, which is just slightly above 1 more deep ball per month. I made no attempts at subjectivity so I wouldn't be tempted to skew the numbers either way. These are purely objective numbers with no mitigating factors such as down/distance, field position, scoreboard or anything else taken into consideration. Just a simple average of how many times each guy goes downfield per game. And they are essentially the same. Following is the number of down field shots they've each taken. Trent Edwards: Week #1 - 5 deep balls Week #2 - 6 deep balls Week #3 - 2 deep balls (the only anomaly for either guy) Week #4 - 7 deep balls Week #5 - 6 deep balls This is 26 shots downfield in 5 games for an average of 5.2 attempts per game. Ryan Fitzpatrick: Week #6 - 5 deep balls Week #7 - 6 deep balls This is 11 shots downfield in 2 games for an average of 5.5 attempts per game. The difference being a grand total of 0.3 deep balls per game or again, just slightly more than 1 deep ball per month. Is it too much to ask that we stop spreading the inaccurate assumption that Fitzpatrick goes downfield more than Edwards? Can we possibly base our arguments in reality and maybe even move the debate forward by using truth as a basis for discussion? I'd say we're likely to come to more accurate conclusions if we can manage that. And as always, this is a troll free thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob16151 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 I agree with you that that is a rampant falsehood. However to say that Fitz try's to work the intermediate passing game(ie the passes between 10 and 20 yards) and the middle of the field more seems like a pretty accurate statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsZubaz Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 I don't know how many dozen times I've read how Fitzpatrick might be the better option right now because he was consistently willing to take shots downfield and get his WR's involved while Trent refuses to pull the trigger on any sort of long ball. It's been said so many times by so many different posters that's it's simply been accepted as a fact with no evidence to back it up. It didn't seem entirely accurate to me so I just went through the playbyplay of every Bills game this year to see whether or not this is true. And guess what, it isn't. The differential is so slight between the two that it is barely worth mentioning. According to their averages, Fitzpatrick throws downfield 0.3 times per game more than Edwards, which is just slightly above 1 more deep ball per month.I made no attempts at subjectivity so I wouldn't be tempted to skew the numbers either way. These are purely objective numbers with no mitigating factors such as down/distance, field position, scoreboard or anything else taken into consideration. Just a simple average of how many times each guy goes downfield per game. And they are essentially the same. Following is the number of down field shots they've each taken. Trent Edwards: Week #1 - 5 deep balls Week #2 - 6 deep balls Week #3 - 2 deep balls (the only anomaly for either guy) Week #4 - 7 deep balls Week #5 - 6 deep balls This is 26 shots downfield in 5 games for an average of 5.2 attempts per game. Ryan Fitzpatrick: Week #6 - 5 deep balls Week #7 - 6 deep balls This is 11 shots downfield in 2 games for an average of 5.5 attempts per game. The difference being a grand total of 0.3 deep balls per game or again, just slightly more than 1 deep ball per month. Is it too much to ask that we stop spreading the inaccurate assumption that Fitzpatrick goes downfield more than Edwards? Can we possibly base our arguments in reality and maybe even move the debate forward by using truth as a basis for discussion? I'd say we're likely to come to more accurate conclusions if we can manage that. And as always, this is a troll free thread. How did you quantify "deep ball"? Because to me personally, Fitz is a more attractive option because of his willingness to throw more intermediate routes (10-30 yards). I have no statistics to back it up. It just seemed to me that he is much more willing to throw such routes. BTW Edwards "deep ball" is nothing more than tossing up a lame duck in a high arc. He really does not throw a good deep ball. PS. I admire the time you put into this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 I don't know how many dozen times I've read how Fitzpatrick might be the better option right now because he was consistently willing to take shots downfield and get his WR's involved while Trent refuses to pull the trigger on any sort of long ball. It's been said so many times by so many different posters that's it's simply been accepted as a fact with no evidence to back it up. It didn't seem entirely accurate to me so I just went through the playbyplay of every Bills game this year to see whether or not this is true. And guess what, it isn't. The differential is so slight between the two that it is barely worth mentioning. According to their averages, Fitzpatrick throws downfield 0.3 times per game more than Edwards, which is just slightly above 1 more deep ball per month.I made no attempts at subjectivity so I wouldn't be tempted to skew the numbers either way. These are purely objective numbers with no mitigating factors such as down/distance, field position, scoreboard or anything else taken into consideration. Just a simple average of how many times each guy goes downfield per game. And they are essentially the same. Following is the number of down field shots they've each taken. Trent Edwards: Week #1 - 5 deep balls Week #2 - 6 deep balls Week #3 - 2 deep balls (the only anomaly for either guy) Week #4 - 7 deep balls Week #5 - 6 deep balls This is 26 shots downfield in 5 games for an average of 5.2 attempts per game. Ryan Fitzpatrick: Week #6 - 5 deep balls Week #7 - 6 deep balls This is 11 shots downfield in 2 games for an average of 5.5 attempts per game. The difference being a grand total of 0.3 deep balls per game or again, just slightly more than 1 deep ball per month. Is it too much to ask that we stop spreading the inaccurate assumption that Fitzpatrick goes downfield more than Edwards? Can we possibly base our arguments in reality and maybe even move the debate forward by using truth as a basis for discussion? I'd say we're likely to come to more accurate conclusions if we can manage that. And as always, this is a troll free thread. Trent has 153 attempts, Fitzpatrick 47. 26/153 = 0.17 11/47 = 0.23 In 153 attempts, Fitz will have thrown 35 to Trent's 26. I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 How did you quantify "deep ball"? I made no attempt to put my own quantifications on this. I chose consistency by only counting each time the playbyplay (CBS) considered each guy to have thrown a deep ball so that both guys would be judged on identical merits. I'm guessing that CBS counted anything that went 20yrds in the air as a deep ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RayFinkle Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 ....not to mention the insane trunover ratio the past two games. The Jets and Panther games should have been blow outs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseballbob Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 I agree with you that that is a rampant falsehood. However to say that Fitz try's to work the intermediate passing game(ie the passes between 10 and 20 yards) and the middle of the field more seems like a pretty accurate statement. Wow, "Simon"! First of all, you must have a LOT of time on your hands, which I don't. However, here's a feeling I have that may or may not be accurate......maybe you could look it up to see if it's true or a falsehood. It SEEMS that Fitzpatrick throws to his wide receivers (i.e. Evans and Owens) more on average per game than Trent Edwards does. I also KNOW that Lee Evans has 2 touchdowns in 1-1/2 games with Fitzpatrick at QB. This SEEMS to be a better average per game than with TE. 2 touchdowns in 1.5 games roughly equates to 21 touchdowns over a full season, whereas 1 touchdown with TE over 4.5 games equals about 3.5 touchdowns for a 16 game season. It also seems that there isn't as much "checking down" with Fitzpatrick than there is with TE (see catches by running backs and tight ends). No, I don't think Fitzpatrick is the long-term answer at QB for the Bills, but I DO think that he gives the Bills a better chance to win week in and week out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Fitz also played against two pretty good defenses, on the road. Not that I think he is good, mind you. Far from it. But he made the plays when he needed to that produced wins and didnt turn the ball over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FightClub Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 I made no attempt to put my own quantifications on this. I chose consistency by only counting each time the playbyplay (CBS) considered each guy to have thrown a deep ball so that both guys would be judged on identical merits. I'm guessing that CBS counted anything that went 20yrds in the air as a deep ball. Yeah, it's not really about the "deep ball". It's about making plays that count when it matters. Like throwing the ball past the 1st down sticks on third down. Example: It's 3rd and 7 with about 4 1/2 minutes left in the game. 17 - 9 Buffalo. The Bills need this first down to keep the clock moving and get deeper into field goal range. A first down here cements the win as it puts the Bills two scores ahead and runs precious time off the click. Fitz? He needles a pass into Reed for eight yards and a critical first down. Edwards? Of course, it's conjecture on my part. But my guess is that Reed doesn't look "open" when he glances at him, and he checks down to Lynch or Jackson, who is tackled short of the first down. Probably we still get the FG, as we were inside the 20, but the first down enabled us to burn over half the remaining game time down. This is critical stuff on a team that plays to the wire every week, and we need a QB with the courage to get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Philster Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Fitz is the better option right now because he makes quick decisions...when Trent makes decisions quickly, he stares down the receiver the entire play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob16151 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Wow, "Simon"! First of all, you must have a LOT of time on your hands, which I don't. However, here's a feeling I have that may or may not be accurate......maybe you could look it up to see if it's true or a falsehood. It SEEMS that Fitzpatrick throws to his wide receivers (i.e. Evans and Owens) more on average per game than Trent Edwards does. I also KNOW that Lee Evans has 2 touchdowns in 1-1/2 games with Fitzpatrick at QB. This SEEMS to be a better average per game than with TE. 2 touchdowns in 1.5 games roughly equates to 21 touchdowns over a full season, whereas 1 touchdown with TE over 4.5 games equals about 3.5 touchdowns for a 16 game season. It also seems that there isn't as much "checking down" with Fitzpatrick than there is with TE (see catches by running backs and tight ends). No, I don't think Fitzpatrick is the long-term answer at QB for the Bills, but I DO think that he gives the Bills a better chance to win week in and week out right now. Ummmmm.......I'm not Simon......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest dog14787 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 I don't know how many dozen times I've read how Fitzpatrick might be the better option right now because he was consistently willing to take shots downfield and get his WR's involved while Trent refuses to pull the trigger on any sort of long ball. It's been said so many times by so many different posters that's it's simply been accepted as a fact with no evidence to back it up. It didn't seem entirely accurate to me so I just went through the playbyplay of every Bills game this year to see whether or not this is true. And guess what, it isn't. The differential is so slight between the two that it is barely worth mentioning. According to their averages, Fitzpatrick throws downfield 0.3 times per game more than Edwards, which is just slightly above 1 more deep ball per month.I made no attempts at subjectivity so I wouldn't be tempted to skew the numbers either way. These are purely objective numbers with no mitigating factors such as down/distance, field position, scoreboard or anything else taken into consideration. Just a simple average of how many times each guy goes downfield per game. And they are essentially the same. Following is the number of down field shots they've each taken. Trent Edwards: Week #1 - 5 deep balls Week #2 - 6 deep balls Week #3 - 2 deep balls (the only anomaly for either guy) Week #4 - 7 deep balls Week #5 - 6 deep balls This is 26 shots downfield in 5 games for an average of 5.2 attempts per game. Ryan Fitzpatrick: Week #6 - 5 deep balls Week #7 - 6 deep balls This is 11 shots downfield in 2 games for an average of 5.5 attempts per game. The difference being a grand total of 0.3 deep balls per game or again, just slightly more than 1 deep ball per month. Is it too much to ask that we stop spreading the inaccurate assumption that Fitzpatrick goes downfield more than Edwards? Can we possibly base our arguments in reality and maybe even move the debate forward by using truth as a basis for discussion? I'd say we're likely to come to more accurate conclusions if we can manage that. And as always, this is a troll free thread. Just calculated the throws to WR's in another thread because folks seem to think Fitz throws to his WR's more then TE. TE has the slight edge, Fitz 7.5 receptions to a WR per game, TE 7.8 receptions to a WR per game. Yo Simon, you should post more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Yeah, it's not really about the "deep ball". It's about making plays that count when it matters. Like throwing the ball past the 1st down sticks on third down. Example: It's 3rd and 7 with about 4 1/2 minutes left in the game. 17 - 9 Buffalo. The Bills need this first down to keep the clock moving and get deeper into field goal range. A first down here cements the win as it puts the Bills two scores ahead and runs precious time off the click. Fitz? He needles a pass into Reed for eight yards and a critical first down. Edwards? Of course, it's conjecture on my part. But my guess is that Reed doesn't look "open" when he glances at him, and he checks down to Lynch or Jackson, who is tackled short of the first down. Probably we still get the FG, as we were inside the 20, but the first down enabled us to burn over half the remaining game time down. This is critical stuff on a team that plays to the wire every week, and we need a QB with the courage to get the job done. I don't know, he probably throws it to Reed because that's his safety blanket. I think he doesn't make the throw to Evans in the end zone or the initial dropped pass by T.O. because those guys are closely covered. My biggest issue with Trent is he doesn't seem to understand that the windows in the NFL are small and that it's rare for guys to be wide open. Look at Manning's pass to Dallas Clarke yesterday. There's no way Trent even thinks about throwing that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barbwire Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Wow, "Simon"! First of all, you must have a LOT of time on your hands, which I don't. However, here's a feeling I have that may or may not be accurate......maybe you could look it up to see if it's true or a falsehood. It SEEMS that Fitzpatrick throws to his wide receivers (i.e. Evans and Owens) more on average per game than Trent Edwards does. I also KNOW that Lee Evans has 2 touchdowns in 1-1/2 games with Fitzpatrick at QB. This SEEMS to be a better average per game than with TE. 2 touchdowns in 1.5 games roughly equates to 21 touchdowns over a full season, whereas 1 touchdown with TE over 4.5 games equals about 3.5 touchdowns for a 16 game season. It also seems that there isn't as much "checking down" with Fitzpatrick than there is with TE (see catches by running backs and tight ends). No, I don't think Fitzpatrick is the long-term answer at QB for the Bills, but I DO think that he gives the Bills a better chance to win week in and week out right now. Did you see what Fitz did in the first half? I believe we had 1 first down. He was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLiveRalph Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 The statistic I like to cite has a 10-year sample size. Trent Edwards was drafted by the Buffalo Bills in the decade of the 00's. Chances are, he sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tortured Soul Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 I made no attempt to put my own quantifications on this. I chose consistency by only counting each time the playbyplay (CBS) considered each guy to have thrown a deep ball so that both guys would be judged on identical merits. I'm guessing that CBS counted anything that went 20yrds in the air as a deep ball. CBS, like the official NFL gamebook, uses 15 yards as the cut-off for deep. I don't think that's what a lot of the board means when we say we want Trent to throw deep. So, while I respect the effort you put in and the objectiveness, I don't think it meaningfully settles any dispute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AF88Bills Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 The things I liked about fitz: 1. He seem to move a little better in the pocket, and didn't his head ripped off. Pass protection is not just the O-line's job. 2. He gave his wide recievers a chance. I'm tired of seeing 2 studs on offense not even get a sniff of the ball, becuase that's not what the defense is giving us. I don't think Fitz was anything special, but he's also done just enough to eke out 2 wins. that's the bottom line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest dog14787 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 CBS, like the official NFL gamebook, uses 15 yards as the cut-off for deep. I don't think that's what a lot of the board means when we say we want Trent to throw deep. So, while I respect the effort you put in and the objectiveness, I don't think it meaningfully settles any dispute. Do you honestly think anything, no matter how accurate it is would settle disputes on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 I don't know how many dozen times I've read how Fitzpatrick might be the better option right now because he was consistently willing to take shots downfield and get his WR's involved while Trent refuses to pull the trigger on any sort of long ball. It's been said so many times by so many different posters that's it's simply been accepted as a fact with no evidence to back it up. It didn't seem entirely accurate to me so I just went through the playbyplay of every Bills game this year to see whether or not this is true. And guess what, it isn't. The differential is so slight between the two that it is barely worth mentioning. According to their averages, Fitzpatrick throws downfield 0.3 times per game more than Edwards, which is just slightly above 1 more deep ball per month.I made no attempts at subjectivity so I wouldn't be tempted to skew the numbers either way. These are purely objective numbers with no mitigating factors such as down/distance, field position, scoreboard or anything else taken into consideration. Just a simple average of how many times each guy goes downfield per game. And they are essentially the same. Following is the number of down field shots they've each taken. Trent Edwards: Week #1 - 5 deep balls Week #2 - 6 deep balls Week #3 - 2 deep balls (the only anomaly for either guy) Week #4 - 7 deep balls Week #5 - 6 deep balls This is 26 shots downfield in 5 games for an average of 5.2 attempts per game. Ryan Fitzpatrick: Week #6 - 5 deep balls Week #7 - 6 deep balls This is 11 shots downfield in 2 games for an average of 5.5 attempts per game. The difference being a grand total of 0.3 deep balls per game or again, just slightly more than 1 deep ball per month. Is it too much to ask that we stop spreading the inaccurate assumption that Fitzpatrick goes downfield more than Edwards? Can we possibly base our arguments in reality and maybe even move the debate forward by using truth as a basis for discussion? I'd say we're likely to come to more accurate conclusions if we can manage that. And as always, this is a troll free thread. Hmm...one QB, designated starter, 5 full games, all the 1st team practice - vs. one who filled in early in one game in a windy venue, on the road, got a weeks' worth of practice with the 1st team, then got a start. Talk about assumptions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest dog14787 Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Hmm...one QB, designated starter, 5 full games, all the 1st team practice - vs. one who filled in early in one game in a windy venue, got a weeks' worth of practice with the 1st team, then got a start. Talk about assumptions.... Whats that have to do with folks making false statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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