spartacus Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 Not true again SoCal. Ramius, the Bandit, and I were pointing out (statistically) that the perception that the Bills draft DBs much more than other NFL teams is not accurate. They draft very slightly more DBs than average, but the perception on this board...perpetuated by some people...is that the Bills pick way more DBs than any other team. Accuracy=Credibility but the Bills draft them when they have gaping holes everywhere else but CB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 I can't help but think that if Andre Smith is there at 11, the Bills will take him. And I'm cool with that. It's looking like Smith will be long gone by #11... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 Andre Smith is Mike Williams the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San-O Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 Not true again SoCal. Ramius, the Bandit, and I were pointing out (statistically) that the perception that the Bills draft DBs much more than other NFL teams is not accurate. They draft very slightly more DBs than average, but the perception on this board...perpetuated by some people...is that the Bills pick way more DBs than any other team. Accuracy=Credibility Don't confuse your perception with reality. The Buffalo Bills have drafted more DBs in the last three years than all but 2 other teams in the NFL. That's high. The Buffalo Bills have drafted more DBs rounds 1 - 4 the last three years than any team in football. That's more than high. The average NFL team over the last three years, '06/'07/'08 , has drafted 2.5 DBs in the first four rounds, Buffalo has drafted 5. That's 2 x the average. Over the past three years, NO other team in the NFL has drafted more high round DBs than the Bills, and in fact the Bills do so at approx. a 2 : 1 ratio. They do it a lot. Don't say "statistics", and "not accurate", and "perception", when you are incorrect and not stating facts OR numbers. Either you don't really understand statistics, or your math is off, or you are intellectually dishonest. http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showt...chart&st=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 Andre Smith is Mike Williams the second. Ozzie Newsome, the guy who drafted Johnathan Ogden and who is recognized as one of the NFL's top talent evaluators, is impressed with Smith and think that his play on tape says it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spartacus Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 Ozzie Newsome, the guy who drafted Johnathan Ogden and who is recognized as one of the NFL's top talent evaluators, is impressed with Smith and think that his play on tape says it all I'll believe Ozzie after he drafts him before then - he 's just posturing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluenews Posted April 19, 2009 Author Share Posted April 19, 2009 I'll believe Ozzie after he drafts him before then - he 's just posturing didn't he trade for McGahee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 didn't he trade for McGahee Worked out well the first year to the tune of 1,200+ yards in 15 games. Willis is a good RB, IMO. He's just another guy who didn't fit or want to be in Buffalo. We seem to get a few of those He battled injuries all last season and struggled, but what RB hasn't had a year like that? Newsome built the Ravens from scratch starting in 1996. They won a SB behind the team he drafted and got through FA within 5 years, we have not won a SB at all. I think I'll value his opinion over most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 This is what I posted earlier in the thread. They draft very slightly more DBs than average, but the perception on this board...perpetuated by some people...is that the Bills pick way more DBs than any other team. Accuracy=Credibility This was SoCal's response. Don't confuse your perception with reality. The Buffalo Bills have drafted more DBs in the last three years than all but 2 other teams in the NFL. That's high. The Buffalo Bills have drafted more DBs rounds 1 - 4 the last three years than any team in football. That's more than high. The average NFL team over the last three years, '06/'07/'08 , has drafted 2.5 DBs in the first four rounds, Buffalo has drafted 5. That's 2 x the average. Over the past three years, NO other team in the NFL has drafted more high round DBs than the Bills, and in fact the Bills do so at approx. a 2 : 1 ratio. They do it a lot. Don't say "statistics", and "not accurate", and "perception", when you are incorrect and not stating facts OR numbers. Either you don't really understand statistics, or your math is off, or you are intellectually dishonest. http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showt...chart&st=20 I went back over the database and came up with the following numbers for the last 3 years. I broke it down by total DBs drafted and DBs drafted in the first 3 rounds. Sorry SoCal, I didn't realize you had broken it down in the first 4 rounds and I'm not going to take the time to re-do my research. I've already wasted enough of my time on this. Nevertheless, the results are similar enough to draw the same conclusions. The Bills have drafted a total of 6 DBs in the last 3 years. NFL teams have drafted a mean average of 4.34 DBs over the last 3 years. The median average is exactly between 4 and 5 (16 teams drafted 4 or less, 16 drafted 5 or more). Statistically the median becomes 4.5 DBs drafted. The Bills have drafted 3 DBs in the first 3 rounds. NFL teams have drafted a mean average of 1.66 DBs in the first 3 rounds. The median average however is 2.5 DBs. We have two sets of averages (mean and median) however the way I would interpret these numbers is that the Bills have tended to draft more DBs than the NFL average over the last 3 years and have tended to draft considerably more DBs than the NFL average in the first 3 rounds. Glad I did the numbers myself...sorta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San-O Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 This is what I posted earlier in the thread. This was SoCal's response. I went back over the database and came up with the following numbers for the last 3 years. I broke it down by total DBs drafted and DBs drafted in the first 3 rounds. Sorry SoCal, I didn't realize you had broken it down in the first 4 rounds and I'm not going to take the time to re-do my research. I've already wasted enough of my time on this. Nevertheless, the results are similar enough to draw the same conclusions. The Bills have drafted a total of 6 DBs in the last 3 years. NFL teams have drafted a mean average of 4.34 DBs over the last 3 years. The median average is exactly between 4 and 5 (16 teams drafted 4 or less, 16 drafted 5 or more). Statistically the median becomes 4.5 DBs drafted. The Bills have drafted 3 DBs in the first 3 rounds. NFL teams have drafted a mean average of 1.66 DBs in the first 3 rounds. The median average however is 2.5 DBs. We have two sets of averages (mean and median) however the way I would interpret these numbers is that the Bills have tended to draft more DBs than the NFL average over the last 3 years and have tended to draft considerably more DBs than the NFL average in the first 3 rounds. Glad I did the numbers myself...sorta. "I do, I offer a complete and utter retraction. The imputation was totally without basis in fact, and was in no way fair comment, and was motivated purely by malice, and I deeply regret any distress that my comments may have caused you, or your family, and I hereby undertake not to repeat any such slander at any time in the future." A Fish Called Wanda I may never again refererence the Bills DB draft history! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LynchMob23 Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 http://sports.espn.go.com/nfldraft/draft/tracker/history The ESPN draft tracker now goes by Team, Coach, College Team, etc to research to your heart's content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 Not true again SoCal. Ramius, the Bandit, and I were pointing out (statistically) that the perception that the Bills draft DBs much more than other NFL teams is not accurate. They draft very slightly more DBs than average, but the perception on this board...perpetuated by some people...is that the Bills pick way more DBs than any other team. Accuracy=Credibility But they obviously have drafted more in rounds 1-4 than any other team in the Levy/Jauron years, and they have done so with the earliest selections. Not only that, there have been quite a few free agent signings as well. Doesn't this lead you to believe that they devote far too many resources to this one area at the expense of others? Looking at the DL, and now the OL, what other conclusion could you draw? This isn't all about Jauron either. When the Bills were at their best in the early 90s, they drafted 4 dbs in round 1 Between 1990 and 1994. 4 first round defensive backs in 5 drafts. Then of course, our star players got old and it was downhill from there. I would call that poor planning. At what point do or will you believe that this constitutes a trend? I think that is a fair question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 But they obviously have drafted more in rounds 1-4 than any other team in the Levy/Jauron years, and they have done so with the earliest selections. Not only that, there have been quite a few free agent signings as well. Doesn't this lead you to believe that they devote far too many resources to this one area at the expense of others? Looking at the DL, and now the OL, what other conclusion could you draw? This isn't all about Jauron either. When the Bills were at their best in the early 90s, they drafted 4 dbs in round 1 Between 1990 and 1994. 4 first round defensive backs in 5 drafts. Then of course, our star players got old and it was downhill from there. I would call that poor planning. At what point do or will you believe that this constitutes a trend? I think that is a fair question. It is puzzling when you think that Modrak's generally accorded fame was picking the wide bodied hands-in-the-dirt types that made Philly competitive a decade or so ago. Maybe its over compensation by the man who calls the shots. Maybe Ralph still can't sleep at night because of recurring bad dreams of Lamonica, Dawson, Stabler and Fouts airing it out against The Bills secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richNjoisy Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 I can't help but think that if Andre Smith is there at 11, the Bills will take him. And I'm cool with that. What an interesting draft for Bills fans next Saturday. Most pundits have the first four off the board as Stafford - J smith - Curry - Monroe. But Curry MAY not go at #3. I doubt this but it is a possibility. Also, after the small chance of KC not taking Curry comes Seattle who might forgo taking Monroe and, instead, go for Sanchez or Crabtree. As a Bills fan, I will be thrilled if either a run on QB's emerges early or if Crabtree goes early and then (hopefully) Maclin. This would drop the OT's and DE's plus Raji should go in the top 10. In the "run" scenario, Andre Smith should fall to 11. Then, we wait and see if the Bills will go that route or take the best DE on the board. I haven't completely ruled out the drafting of Pettigrew at 11 (but I will be surprised). Then, we wait for pick 28 for the OPPOSITE to the pick 11 pick (if Bills go DE....wait and hope Oher or Britton falls). If Andre, then see if Ayers falls. My guess at this point will be the DE at 11 and then hope for Britton or Oher at 28. Then best TE left in round 2. The possible trades of Kelsay and Parrish in addition to the refusal (apparently) to take a 1 and 3 and instead taking a 1 and 4 and next year 6th lead me to believe the Bills are aimed at stockpiling picks for some trades. Waters? Scheffler? A trade up? -RnJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VJ91 Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 Since 1987 (22 draft classes) the Buffalo Bills have only drafted (3) THREE Offensive Lineman in the first or second round. With two #1's and one #2 it will be very interesting how committed the Buffalo Bills are the offensive line. 2002 1st Round Mike Williams 1995 1st Round Ruben Brown 1992 1st Round John Fina Something gotta give! Excellent point. But a couple of times they did strike gold for their OL in the later rounds or free agency back in the 1980's. Such as when they drafted House Ballard in the 10th round one year, and they signed Kent Hull as a USFL FA back in 1986. But overall yes, they have basically ignored the OL on Day 1 of the draft for the past 20 + years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 Bill from NYC, I posted the following passage after the passage that you quote me and comment on: I went back over the database and came up with the following numbers for the last 3 years. I broke it down by total DBs drafted and DBs drafted in the first 3 rounds. Sorry SoCal, I didn't realize you had broken it down in the first 4 rounds and I'm not going to take the time to re-do my research. I've already wasted enough of my time on this. Nevertheless, the results are similar enough to draw the same conclusions. The Bills have drafted a total of 6 DBs in the last 3 years. NFL teams have drafted a mean average of 4.34 DBs over the last 3 years. The median average is exactly between 4 and 5 (16 teams drafted 4 or less, 16 drafted 5 or more). Statistically the median becomes 4.5 DBs drafted. The Bills have drafted 3 DBs in the first 3 rounds. NFL teams have drafted a mean average of 1.66 DBs in the first 3 rounds. The median average however is 2.5 DBs. We have two sets of averages (mean and median) however the way I would interpret these numbers is that the Bills have tended to draft more DBs than the NFL average over the last 3 years and have tended to draft considerably more DBs than the NFL average in the first 3 rounds. Glad I did the numbers myself...sorta. As a result I believe an overemphasis on drafting DBs has been a trend. But I think going back to before the last two GMs and the present head coach is irrelevant. That's why I only went back 3 years. I don't think it matters how Tom Donahoe and Mike Mularkey drafted. But they obviously have drafted more in rounds 1-4 than any other team in the Levy/Jauron years, and they have done so with the earliest selections. Not only that, there have been quite a few free agent signings as well. Doesn't this lead you to believe that they devote far too many resources to this one area at the expense of others? Looking at the DL, and now the OL, what other conclusion could you draw? This isn't all about Jauron either. When the Bills were at their best in the early 90s, they drafted 4 dbs in round 1 Between 1990 and 1994. 4 first round defensive backs in 5 drafts. Then of course, our star players got old and it was downhill from there. I would call that poor planning. At what point do or will you believe that this constitutes a trend? I think that is a fair question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bufcomments Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 If the first 2 picks are OLineman I would not be upset But the Bills main need is a pass rusher If Smith falls to us we have to take him, all I know is on game days in the SEC he was the best O lineman and played against good players. If somebody can correct me on this please feel free to do so Yea maybe he made some bad decisions at the combine . But the draft is a crap shoot anyway. If they draft A. Smith and move up and grab Ayers somehow I would be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 If the first 2 picks are OLineman I would not be upset But the Bills main need is a pass rusher If Smith falls to us we have to take him, all I know is on game days in the SEC he was the best O lineman and played against good players. If somebody can correct me on this please feel free to do so Yea maybe he made some bad decisions at the combine . But the draft is a crap shoot anyway. If they draft A. Smith and move up and grab Ayers somehow I would be happy I cannot correct you because none of us know for sure how these players will turn out. That said, I am an Alabama Fan and I project Smith to be more of a mauling RT than an agile LT. This btw is not an insult; it is more of an evaluation. A standout RT is a huge plus for a team, especially in terms of running the football. But, they are not drafted as high as LTs. For this reason, I am pretty sure Smith will be there at 11 and beyond but again, you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 Could you please share some of these diamonds? The crack [pun intentional] scouting is killing us. Diamonds indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 It's looking like Smith will be long gone by #11... There is a bonanza of red flags flying around Smith and its not because he was part of the Crimson Tide. But, the Bills signed T.O. to a pretty heavy 1 year deal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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