DC Tom Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Talking head from the Bush campaign discussing it on CNN now. He sounds as delusional as Kerry's man did discussing Miami-Dade county..."Cleveland's in now, we did well..." Cleveland's 50% reported, and Kerry has a 95k vote lead...and Bush only leads the state by 100k. The rest of the Cleveland ballot could wipe out Bush's lead...and then there's Cincy, and Dayton, and Canton... If Bush wins Ohio, it's going to be by a razor-thin margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Seems like Cinci is not a Demo stronghold though, and if anything it goes a little right, no? That seemed to be the implication of what I read earlier. Agreed that the people jumping the gun on Cleveland are insane. There's something like 400,000 more votes to come from that county alone (the current ratio in Cuyahoga is about 2:1 Kerry, which, if it keeps up, will wipe out Bush's lead). Will probably be tight either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted November 3, 2004 Author Share Posted November 3, 2004 Seems like Cinci is not a Demo stronghold though, and if anything it goes a little right, no? That seemed to be the implication of what I read earlier. Agreed that the people jumping the gun on Cleveland are insane. There's something like 400,000 more votes to come from that county alone (the current ratio in Cuyahoga is about 2:1 Kerry, which, if it keeps up, will wipe out Bush's lead). Will probably be tight either way. 98295[/snapback] I wouldn't call Cincy a Democratic stronghold...but Kerry's got to rely on the larger cities to win Ohio, because he's getting killed in the rural areas and needs a favorable tilt in the high population centers to offset it. Odds are he'll get it, more in Cleveland than Cincinnatti, but Cincy's going to lean farther towards Kerry than the rural counties will... And interestingly enough, now that I check Cincy...Bush is leading by a couple thousand, with 31% reporting. Interesting...but the state still goes as Cleveland does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lori Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 I wouldn't call Cincy a Democratic stronghold...but Kerry's got to rely on the larger cities to win Ohio, because he's getting killed in the rural areas and needs a favorable tilt in the high population centers to offset it. Odds are he'll get it, more in Cleveland than Cincinnatti, but Cincy's going to lean farther towards Kerry than the rural counties will... And interestingly enough, now that I check Cincy...Bush is leading by a couple thousand, with 31% reporting. Interesting...but the state still goes as Cleveland does... 98305[/snapback] Interesting, but are you really surprised? Cincinnati is far more conservative than most cities its size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted November 3, 2004 Author Share Posted November 3, 2004 Bush is now up 110k through the state, with Cleveland reporting almost 70%. Doesn't mean anything other than Bush is maintaining his margin while the votes are counted, which in itself is interesting, if somewhat meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Bush is now up 110k through the state, with Cleveland reporting almost 70%. Doesn't mean anything other than Bush is maintaining his margin while the votes are counted, which in itself is interesting, if somewhat meaningless. 98324[/snapback] CNN has Bush leading by only 30k now in Ohio...at least on the web AHHH! nevermind, it jumped back up to over 100k now....odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted November 3, 2004 Author Share Posted November 3, 2004 Interesting, but are you really surprised? Cincinnati is far more conservative than most cities its size. 98320[/snapback] Actually...yes, I am. I wasn't aware of that. What little I know about the area's economy, I would have guessed it would lean slightly more liberal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 CNN has Bush leading by only 30k now in Ohio...at least on the webAHHH! nevermind, it jumped back up to over 100k now....odd. 98325[/snapback] Cuyahoga will not make up the difference at this point. I think OH goes to Bush. EDIT: I take this back...kind of. At CNN, it says 67% *precincts* reporting in... that is not voters. Still, doesn't seem like Cleveland can make up the 130K difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Fox reporting one Bushie now assuring Ohio is a Bush win - expecting the final talley to be +120k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Cuyahoga will not make up the difference at this point. I think OH goes to Bush. 98330[/snapback] I'm in over my head. My first foray into the PP board here on TBD has been interesting. But I am enjoying the give and take on both sides.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted November 3, 2004 Author Share Posted November 3, 2004 Cuyahoga will not make up the difference at this point. I think OH goes to Bush. 98330[/snapback] Still could...but just barely. It's only 67% reported. I wouldn't count Kerry out until Cuyahoga's 85% reported or so. But like we said above...it's going to be damned thin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Still could...but just barely. It's only 67% reported. I wouldn't count Kerry out until Cuyahoga's 85% reported or so. But like we said above...it's going to be damned thin. 98336[/snapback] all I can say, is that the people I have chosen to listen to - partisan hacks or not - have been spot on ALL DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Cincinnati is one of the most conservative citys in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 all I can say, is that the people I have chosen to listen to - partisan hacks or not - have been spot on ALL DAY. 98341[/snapback] Seems to me like OH will go to Bush. And I'm no political hack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lori Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Actually...yes, I am. I wasn't aware of that. What little I know about the area's economy, I would have guessed it would lean slightly more liberal. 98328[/snapback] Think Marge Schott, Robert Mapplethorpe, the Larry Flynt obscenity trial.... what do those three things have in common? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Seems to me like OH will go to Bush. And I'm no political hack. 98345[/snapback] and I'm not listening to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted November 3, 2004 Author Share Posted November 3, 2004 all I can say, is that the people I have chosen to listen to - partisan hacks or not - have been spot on ALL DAY. 98341[/snapback] Call it a personality flaw...I listen to and consider the positions of others, but my own counsel is what I follow. It is, after all, the only one I have to live with. And I say: Ohio ain't close to being decided yet. Were I forced to bet right now, I'd put my money on Kerry...but his odds are declining rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 What little I know about the area's economy, I would have guessed it would lean slightly more liberal. With no due respect to Bahstan, Cincinnati is possibly the most racist city in the Northern US. Liberal-leaning would be somewhat of a misnomer. Cya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Call it a personality flaw...I listen to and consider the positions of others, but my own counsel is what I follow. It is, after all, the only one I have to live with. And I say: Ohio ain't close to being decided yet. Were I forced to bet right now, I'd put my money on Kerry...but his odds are declining rapidly. 98363[/snapback] call JFK and give him hope because even they are giving in.... call that quaking fowl a duck and move on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede316 Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 79% precincts reporting - Updated 12:24 a.m. ET........Bush up by 120,000....Could be the straw that breaks Kerry's back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berg Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 79% precincts reporting - Updated 12:24 a.m. ET........Bush up by 120,000....Could be the straw that breaks Kerry's back. 98375[/snapback] Until you look at which precincts have yet to report. Then you understand why Tom says what he says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Campy Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 79% precincts reporting - Updated 12:24 a.m. ET........Bush up by 120,000....Could be the straw that breaks Kerry's back. 98375[/snapback] I think the best Kerry could do would be 269 if he takes all the rest and Bush takes only Ohio. Since you need 270 to be elected, and Bush would be at 266, how would they settle this thing? Anyone know? FWIW, I'm using these ABC projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chicot Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 I think the best Kerry could do would be 269 if he takes all the rest and Bush takes only Ohio. Since you need 270 to be elected, and Bush would be at 266, how would they settle this thing? Anyone know? FWIW, I'm using these ABC projections. 98392[/snapback] It's too late for me to attempt the maths (5.30 am over here!) but surely that's wrong. Don't the totals have to add up to 538 - the votes have to go to someone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede316 Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 I think it would be 269-269...Thus the Senate elects the prez....Hence Bush would be re-elected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Its over. Fox just called Ohio for Bush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Campy Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 It's too late for me to attempt the maths (5.30 am over here!) but surely that's wrong. Don't the totals have to add up to 538 - the votes have to go to someone? 98405[/snapback] D'OH! I kinda forgot about Hawaii and Alaska... Sorry Darin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chicot Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 I think it would be 269-269...Thus the Senate elects the prez....Hence Bush would be re-elected. 98406[/snapback] I think the House of Representatives elects the President and the Senate the Vice-President? I saw one wacky scenario in which Bush ends up as President with Edwards as Vice-President! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 D'OH! I kinda forgot about Hawaii and Alaska... Sorry Darin 98415[/snapback] No problem. We elected the President last time and may very well do it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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