Kelly the Dog Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 I replied to you a week or two ago that the dems say the same thing every 4 years and the result is the same. And you have been either psychotic, wrong, or psychotically wrong on this board since September 17, 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 I replied to you a week or two ago that the dems say the same thing every 4 years and the result is the same. And you have been either psychotic, wrong, or psychotically wrong on this board since September 17, 2001. I don't know about that, Bush did win twice didn't he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 I don't know about that, Bush did win twice didn't he? But he only won the first time because Democrats aren't smart enough to realize the box next to Gore means vote for Gore and the box next to Buchannon means vote for Buchannon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 I don't know about that, Bush did win twice didn't he? That falls into the psychotic category, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Experience means nothing... I think it is great she was picked. This is spot on. Obama lacks experience. Guided by principle, he hopes to work with insiders to get to change we can believe in. Hopefully as an ousider he can kick over some old tables. McCain's Polin choice says he's an insider willing to do the same, just with different principles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justnzane Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Nah, too easy I feel bad sometimes watching justnzane flop around here But I will leave you with the basis of what I was going to reply...3.5 I'm just about to leave, so i'll have to explain the math on this one later. But this is accurate unlike 3.5 EDIT: I thought this was going to post at 730, as I went to watch a football game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 I'm just about to leave, so i'll have to explain the math on this one later. Followed shortly by Bob and Doug McKenizie explaining string theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justnzane Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Followed shortly by Bob and Doug McKenizie explaining string theory. Ok, just to show my mathematical understanding: http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html has the actuarial life table that I used in the previous post. Now since McCain is now 72 years old there is a 3.01% chance of him dying in the next year (assuming he is the average statistic). Now assuming the figures stay relatively the same for the during of the possible McCain presidency, the chances of him dying when he is 73 are at 3.60%, at 74- 3.95% and at 75- 4.34%. This means that in each of those years he has a 96.99%, 96.40%, 96.05%, and 95.66% chance of living through each of those respected years. To find the chances of him making it through all 4 years to his 76th birthday, you would multiply each of the percentages together. So, when you multiply .9699*.9640*.9605*.9566 you end up with .8591 or 85.91% chance of him living to his 76th birthday. So assuming that he wins the election, that means that Palin has a 14% chance of taking over as President. This assumes that everything with McCain is in working order at this point and he is at the average condition for a 72 year old. Now, I firmly believe that the 14% is a tad misrepresented as it also doesn't account for a higher probabilty of McCain's body giving out at a time before death, thus I believe the likelihood of Palin being thrust into the Presidency is somewhere around 30-35%. That said if McCain were to perish or step down in the first 2 years, then you would have somebody in office that is less experienced on the national stage than Obama (is at this point) taking the oath. Unfortunately for McCain, I think he just threw away his best selling point to the voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 That said if McCain were to perish or step down in the first 2 years, then you would have somebody in office that is less experienced on the national stage than Obama (is at this point) taking the oath. Unfortunately for McCain, I think he just threw away his best selling point to the voters. I thought experience didn't matter as much as judgement? So now experience matters? Hillary must be getting sand in her pantsuit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Ok, just to show my mathematical understanding: http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html has the actuarial life table that I used in the previous post. Now since McCain is now 72 years old there is a 3.01% chance of him dying in the next year (assuming he is the average statistic). Now assuming the figures stay relatively the same for the during of the possible McCain presidency, the chances of him dying when he is 73 are at 3.60%, at 74- 3.95% and at 75- 4.34%. This means that in each of those years he has a 96.99%, 96.40%, 96.05%, and 95.66% chance of living through each of those respected years. To find the chances of him making it through all 4 years to his 76th birthday, you would multiply each of the percentages together. So, when you multiply .9699*.9640*.9605*.9566 you end up with .8591 or 85.91% chance of him living to his 76th birthday. So assuming that he wins the election, that means that Palin has a 14% chance of taking over as President. This assumes that everything with McCain is in working order at this point and he is at the average condition for a 72 year old. Now, I firmly believe that the 14% is a tad misrepresented as it also doesn't account for a higher probabilty of McCain's body giving out at a time before death, thus I believe the likelihood of Palin being thrust into the Presidency is somewhere around 30-35%. 14% is "probably? In Canada maybe. And the source you yourself chose to use for statistics is a tad misrepresented? What would you think is a better source? The justnzane actuarial table? What percentage does that give? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 I thought experience didn't matter as much as judgement? So now experience matters? Hillary must be getting sand in her pantsuit No... I have always contended experience doesn't matter as much. Now, from what I take... It did matter to McCain... What I don't understand is why he flip-flopped on that? I view this move as McCain being Hitler and having Britian almost beat and then turns around and attacks the USSR. McCain had Obama's ticket punched... He let Obama off the hook in for a lot of voters... The idiots that were buying into McCains experience thing have to be wickedly bedeviled now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 14% is "probably? In Canada maybe. And the source you yourself chose to use for statistics is a tad misrepresented? What would you think is a better source? The justnzane actuarial table? What percentage does that give? Aren't 14% of Canadians really Americans that relocated to Canada after Bush was re-elected in 2004? As much as you despise Canada, some part of you must feel a little bad about the horde of Baldwin's we unleashed upon our neighbors to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 14% is "probably? In Canada maybe. And the source you yourself chose to use for statistics is a tad misrepresented? What would you think is a better source? The justnzane actuarial table? What percentage does that give? Don't forget, they have a high fat intake up there... Which obviously doesn't show in Palin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 I view this move as McCain being Hitler and having Britian almost beat and then turns around and attacks the USSR. /buzzer Oh, I'm sorry. Thanks for playing the game By using the H word you have disqualified yourself from any further intelligent competition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Aren't 14% of Canadians really Americans that relocated to Canada after Bush was re-elected in 2004? As much as you despise Canada, some part of you must feel a little bad about the horde of Baldwin's we unleashed upon our neighbors to the north? 14%? Probably. If I could find a definitive source that showed that, I would think it was a tad off, based on what I think. And I don't despise Canada, I pity it. Did the Baldwins move to Canada? Well, the food supply will certainly diminish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 14%? Probably. If 14% of Canadians are Americans, then what are the other 62% of Canadians? Eskimos? Mexicans that didn't stop at the 1st border? Other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 If 14% of Canadians are Americans, then what are the other 62% of Canadians? Eskimos? Mexicans that didn't stop at the 1st border? Other? Crab People Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 I notice this thread is up to 14 pages which means it is probably the longest thread ever even though that fake football thread went to over 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justnzane Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 I thought experience didn't matter as much as judgement? So now experience matters? Hillary must be getting sand in her pantsuit Well, that is what the McCain camp has used as an attack on Obama. Though I agree with you are getting at, I don't think I have said anything along the lines of McCain's experience being a terrible thing. However, my big worry is that I don't McCain can physically hold up the rigors of what the Presidency can bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Well, that is what the McCain camp has used as an attack on Obama. Though I agree with you are getting at, I don't think I have said anything along the lines of McCain's experience being a terrible thing. However, my big worry is that I don't McCain can physically hold up the rigors of what the Presidency can bring. Hasn't DC Tom and Alaska Darin pwnd you enough yet? At least I give you credit for persistence for sticking around this long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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