Here's an article for people that want a 2nd RB

[Git'er Done]

I have been trying to convince posters here that if you want to win the Super Bowl ,you need a 1st rounder at RB. Almost ALL the Super Bowl winners had one. I just found an article with some nice stats and such.

 

Great Running Backs Readily Identified by Draft Day

NFL teams do not overlook many great running backs at draft time. The proof is in the statistics. Below is a list of the career leaders in rushing yards. It is overwhelmingly dominated by first round selections, super premium picks at that. While NFL teams occasionally select running backs too early in the draft, the great one's are rarely drafted late.

 

Nine of the top 10 running backs were drafted in round one. Only Curtis Martin, currently number four on the list, was drafted any later. Martin was a third round pick of the New England Patriots in 1995 from the University of Pittsburgh.

 

Of the top 20 career rushing leaders, 15 were selected in round one. In addition to Martin, the other top 20 rushers selected outside of round one were: No. 11 Thurman Thomas (2nd round, Bills, 1988, Oklahoma State), No. 15 Ricky Watters (2nd round, 49ers, 1991, Notre Dame), No. 18 Corey Dillon (2nd round, Bengals, 1997, Washington) and No. 20 Terry Allen (9th round, 1990, Vikings, Clemson).

 

Among the top 55 all-time rushers: 31 were first round picks, 8 were second round selections, 5 were picked in round three, 9 were tabbed in later rounds and two players were not drafted at all. The undrafted running back were No. 22 Hall of Famer Joe Perry and No. 34 current great Priest Holmes.

 

Perry, who entered the NFL via its incorporation of the AAFC in 1950, was perhaps the most exciting runner of his era. In the AAFC, Perry scored 23 touchdowns in 25 games over two years, averaging seven yards per carry. In the NFL, Perry rushed for over 1,000 yards in both the 1953 and 1954 seasons, an extremely difficult task in 12 game seasons. In 1953, Perry gained 1,018 yards rushing for 5.3 yards per carry and scored 13 touchdowns. He followed it up with perhaps an even better season when he rushed for 1,049 yards for 6.1 yards per carry and scored eight more touchdowns.

 

Holmes has confounded not only all those who overlooked him at draft time, but also the Baltimore Ravens who failed to resign him after he rushed for over 1,000 yards in 1998 and the Cleveland Browns who didn't try hard enough to get him to join the team when it had the opportunity and room under the salary cap to do so upon its reentry into the league. If Holmes can stay healthy enough to have just one more good season, he will enter the top 20 in all-time rushers.

 

Of the career leading rushers who were actually drafted, No. 23, the unheralded Ernest Byner (10th round, Browns, 1984, East Carolina) was the least appreciated at draft time. Nevertheless, Byner had a 14 year career with the Browns, Redskins and Ravens. He not only rushed for 8,261 yards, but also caught 512 passes for 4,605 yards more.

 

Other late round picks included No. 20 Terry Allen (previously mentioned), No. 33 Terrell Davis (6th round, 1995, Broncos), No. 38 Leroy Kelly (8th round, 1964, Browns), No. 46 Wilbert Montgomery (6th round, 1977, Eagles) and No. 54 Don Perkins (9th round, 1960, Cowboys).

 

No. 24 Herschel Walker was drafted in the fifth round in 1985 by the Cowboys, but he would have undoubtedly been the first pick in any draft he entered if he had not already been signed and playing in the USFL.

 

Over 40% of the career rushing leaders were super premium draft picks. Somewhat arbitrarily, I've defined the super premium picks as the nine first selections in the draft. Super premium picks that turned into all-time rushing greats include: No. 2 Walter Payton (4 player in 1975 by the Bears), No. 3 Barry Sanders (3rd player, 1989, Lions), No. 6 Eric Dickerson (2nd player, 1983, Rams), No. 7 Tony Dorsett (2nd player, 1977, Cowboys), No. 8 Jim Brown (6th player, 1957, Browns), No. 12 Marshall Faulk (2nd player, 1994, Colts), No. 13 John Riggins (6th player, 1971, Jets), No. 14 O.J. Simpson (1st player, 1969, Bills), No. 17 Ottis Anderson (8th player, 1979, Cardinals), No. 19 Earl Campbell (1st player, 1978, Oilers), No. 26 Gerald Riggs (9th player, 1982, Falcons), No. 27. Larry Csonka (8th player, 1968, Dolphins), No. 28 Freeman McNeil (3rd player, 1981, Jets), No. 29 Garrison Hearst (3rd player, 1993, Cardinals--do the Cardinals lose all their great draft picks), No. 31 Edgerrin James (4th player, 1999, Colts--who wisely bypassed Ricky Williams), No. 35 Fred Taylor (9th player, 1998, Jaguars), No. 36 Mike Pruitt (7th player, 1976, Browns), No. 40 George Rogers (1st player, 1981, Saints), No. 43 Curt Warner (3rd player, 1983, Seahawks), No. 47 Chuck Muncie (3rd player, 1976, Saints), No. 52 Ricky Williams (5th player, 1999, Saints) and No. 53 Floyd Little (6th pick, 1967, Broncos).

 

Few running backs drafted with super premium picks become total washouts. When they do, it is often due to injuries. Nevertheless, the following players probably did not meet the lofty expectations of the teams that drafted them: Ki-Jana Carter (1st player, 1995, Bengals), Blair Thomas (2nd player, 1990, Jets), Bo Matthews (2nd player, Chargers, 1974), Alonzo Highsmith (3rd player, 1987, Oilers), Brent Fullwood (4th player, 1987, Packers), Curtis Enis (5th player, 1998, Bears), Lawrence Phillips (6th player, 1996, Rams), Tim Worley (7th player, 1989, Steelers), Joe Profit (7th player, 1971, Falcons), Michael Haddix (8th player, 1983, Eagles), Touchdown Tommy Vardell (9th player, 1992, Browns), Sammie Smith (9th player, 1989, Dolphins), and Bubba Bean (9th player, 1976, Falcons)

 

An added note, Brian Leonard could be this years "Touchdown" Tommy Vardell.

[Simon]

I have been trying to convince posters here that if you want to win the Super Bowl ,you need a 1st rounder at RB...........a list of the career leaders in rushing yards.....is overwhelmingly dominated by first round selections, super premium picks at that

 

If you want to convince posters that teh Bills need a 1strnd back to win a SB why use an article that addreses rushing yardage instead?

Of that big long lost of premiumpick RB's I only see about 6 with rings.

Post how many of the last 15-20 SB participants had a premiumpick RB and then you might get some folks' attention.

Cya

[Git'er Done]

If you want to convince posters that teh Bills need a 1strnd back to win a SB why use an article that addreses rushing yardage instead?

Of that big long lost of premiumpick RB's I only see about 6 with rings.

Post how many of the last 15-20 SB participants had a premiumpick RB and then you might get some folks' attention.

Cya

 

I also posted all the Super Bowl winners, they weren't necessarily "premium picks" but almost all were 1st rounders. I have posted a few different lists, this is just to add another aspect.

 

No one has come up with any contrary statistics that make ANY argument for the players from the other rounds (because there aren't any), they just post stuff like "I think you can get better value in the 2nd or even 3rd round at running back" or spew out a couple names of successful running back from other rounds.

 

My contention is that it's almost essential to have a great back to win a SB, that the odds are way better in the first, that an average back is a waste of time (and other players careers) and that perhaps the top guys just have that little bit something extra that can push a team over the top.

 

Also alot of the guys won more than one ring.

 

I still haven't seen a well reasoned argument for a 2nd rounder, and some fools are counting on a 3rd. To me this is the way to waste picks.

[The Senator]

OK...I read the part that said "I've been trying to convince posters here..." and then the part that said "Brian Leonard could be this year's 'Touchdown' Tommy Vardell" - do I need to read anything in the middle?

[Git'er Done]

OK...I read the part that said "I've been trying to convince posters here..." and then the part that said "Brian Leonard could be this year's 'Touchdown' Tommy Vardell" - do I need to read anything in the middle?

No,I'm sure it's too much for you.

[Git'er Done]

OK...I read the part that said "I've been trying to convince posters here..." and then the part that said "Brian Leonard could be this year's 'Touchdown' Tommy Vardell" - do I need to read anything in the middle?

I see you're a Poz fan and a Leonard fan. A fool like you should just stay away from any of my posts. Go watch Canadian football, all the Great White Hopes you'll ever need.

[The Dean]

Wow...an ARTICLE. Well, that settles it for me.

[Chilly]

Wow...an ARTICLE. Well, that settles it for me.

 

Well, he does name himself after Larry The Cable Guy. That provides him the utmost authority, and lets us know that he once slept with his sister.

[Lothar]

Actually, unlike a lot of tripe that spout opinions, I found that article pretty factual and interesting. This being a rather weak year for RB, I still think Marshawn Lynch is in the running as our pick - an all-purpose back with speed and hands (I just don't think Peterson's a good fit for Fairchild's offense.) Unfortunately, the loss of 2 LB this offseason makes this a tough sell for a 1st pick.

[The Dean]

Actually, unlike a lot of tripe that spout opinions, I found that article pretty factual and interesting. This being a rather weak year for RB, I still think Marshawn Lynch is in the running as our pick - an all-purpose back with speed and hands (I just don't think Peterson's a good fit for Fairchild's offense.) Unfortunately, the loss of 2 LB this offseason makes this a tough sell for a 1st pick.

 

 

...torture numbers long enough, and they'll confess to anything,

 

With that said, I like Lynch a lot (much more than AP for us), but like Willis better. I'm not sure either will be there when we pick, though. Marv may have other plans. I'm starting to believe a DB may actually be his 1st pick.

[Dibs]

.......Few running backs drafted with super premium picks become total washouts. When they do, it is often due to injuries. Nevertheless, the following players probably did not meet the lofty expectations of the teams that drafted them: Ki-Jana Carter (1st player, 1995, Bengals), Blair Thomas (2nd player, 1990, Jets), Bo Matthews (2nd player, Chargers, 1974), Alonzo Highsmith (3rd player, 1987, Oilers), Brent Fullwood (4th player, 1987, Packers), Curtis Enis (5th player, 1998, Bears), Lawrence Phillips (6th player, 1996, Rams), Tim Worley (7th player, 1989, Steelers), Joe Profit (7th player, 1971, Falcons), Michael Haddix (8th player, 1983, Eagles), Touchdown Tommy Vardell (9th player, 1992, Browns), Sammie Smith (9th player, 1989, Dolphins), and Bubba Bean (9th player, 1976, Falcons)......

I agree with the basic concept of what you are saying. Just look around the league & add up the number of good starters at RB drafted in the 1st first round. It's by far the majority of them.

 

This last point however I disagree with.....or at least I think it should be looked at in a more realistic sense. i.e. the question should not be "which premium picks become total washouts"......it should perhaps be "which premium picks do not pan out for the teams selecting them". I put it this way so as to directly correlate it to the situation we are in.....that is.....we can draft a premium RB in the 1st, is that likely to solve our RB problems?

 

From 1986-2005.....bold = non success for team selecting RBs in top 12

 

LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Ron Dayne, Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams, Curtis Enis, Fred Taylor, Warrick Dunn(????), Lawrence Phillips, Tim Biakabutuka, Ki-Jana Carter, Marshall Faulk, Garrison Hearst, Jerome Bettis, Tommy Vardell, Blair Thomas, Barry Sanders, Tim Worley, Sammie Smith, Alonzo Highsmith, Brent Fullwood, Bo Jackson

 

That's 23 RBs.

Only 6 of them panned out for the team selecting them.

 

What does this mean?

It means that I agree that the best place to find a premium long term answer at RB is early in the 1st round......but......if we use our #12 on a RB we should realize that there is a 1 in 4 chance that the RB will not attain the level expected from us.

Edited March 30, 2007 by Dibs

[bflobarry]

Git 'er: Thoughtful post, thanks. I'm now seeing that many of the football, real opinion posts come from relative newbies, while many of the veterans are quick to condescend, disparage, and mock. Certainly not always the case, but this s/b a board for OPINIONS. I'm a 30+ yr dedicated fan; been to 2 Super Bowls, have season tix 20 yrs after moving time zones away, etc.... To have some obviously miserable veterans dismiss rational give and take is just unfortunate, in my humble opinion. Having said all that, in Marv I DO trust. We will be competitive this year. And J.P. will have a great year. "Build it (the O.L.), and they will come"...

[Pyrite Gal]

I agree with the basic concept of what you are saying. Just look around the league & add up the number of good starters at RB drafted in the 1st first round. It's by far the majority of them.

 

This last point however I disagree with.....or at least I think it should be looked at in a more realistic sense. i.e. the question should not be "which premium picks become total washouts"......it should perhaps be "which premium picks do not pan out for the teams selecting them". I put it this way so as to directly correlate it to the situation we are in.....that is.....we can draft a premium RB in the 1st, is that likely to solve our RB problems?

 

From 1986-2005.....bold = non success for team selecting RBs in top 12

 

LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Ron Dayne, Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams, Curtis Enis, Fred Taylor, Warrick Dunn(????), Lawrence Phillips, Tim Biakabutuka, Ki-Jana Carter, Marshall Faulk, Garrison Hearst, Jerome Bettis, Tommy Vardell, Blair Thomas, Barry Sanders, Tim Worley, Sammie Smith, Alonzo Highsmith, Brent Fullwood, Bo Jackson

 

That's 23 RBs.

Only 6 of them panned out for the team selecting them.

 

What does this mean?

It means that I agree that the best place to find a premium long term answer at RB is early in the 1st round......but......if we use our #12 on a RB we should realize that there is a 1 in 4 chance that the RB will not attain the level expected from us.

I think this mostly speaks to the fact that the draft is really a crapshoot and just because you draft a player in the 1st or the consensus is he is a player reasonably taken in the 1st it not only does not guarantee that he will be the answer but actually from your stats it looks more than likely he will not be,

 

The other fact which folks tend to downplay or flatout ignore is that it does not matter totally whether a player was drafted in the first round or not it is also important how you acquired that player. I have not computed the numbers, but the example is seen in a case like Marshall Faulk, Sure he was drafted in the 1st round, but his presence on this list and his role in helping the Rams win an SB title came because a team can acquire an RB who proved to be worthy of a 1st round choice in a trade. The Faulk example is actually an occurrence which points to not drafting a player at RB in the first round because you can acquire such a player and put together a winning SB team by trading for a proven 1st round selected RB from elsewhere.

 

The team which would really like the article laid out to start this thread is the Baltimore Ravens, they traded some mere draft picks and acquired an RB chosen in the 1st round named Willis McGahee. They hope that the stats of the lead post are correct and that they will join the list of teams who played in an SB in part because of the contributions of an RB chosen in the 1st round.

[Lurker]

Those stats may have been the case in the past, but I think there's an evolution in the position underway that's moving more toward RB by committee, much as the D-line is evolving. A number of teams have shown the dual RB-thingy can work, including the last few SB winners. Stud RB's have a pretty short shelf life and teams seem to be hedging their bets about using quantity to offset premium draft pick quality.

[marauderswr80]

After Lynch, there is a HUGE drop off in RB talent. Other then Leonard and Pittman, who I think are decent backs, but after those 2 there is a major drop off in talent.

[zonabb]

If anyone is familiar with my hatred of poor use of statistics, they should expect a reply here! But no need to elaborate since the first reply nailed it. Big deal on yards rushing. Do you want a yardage winner of a RB who can win you a SB?

 

I'm a big "brains" guy (and I'm happy with Marv's approach to brains and charcter) and believe that if someone is intelligent and has enough skill to be drafted, they can be great. Steve Tasker said on the radio recently after they traded that unintelligent RB, that Levy always believed that a player with useable skills would get better if they were intelligent but a player with great raw talent wouldn't. Basically, you can teach brains but you can't teach idiots.

 

That being said, if anyone wants to see a true measure of intelligence and its correlation to winning, find all the Wonderlic scores you can online for QBs and the look at the QBs who won SBs and their score. I had it in a file but can't remember where it went. Invariably, SB winning QBs score well. Only one or two didn't score about what the consider the "janitor score" which is in the mid teens.

 

BTW, that worldy, fine dining lovin', skank bangin' RB in Baltimore scored a 12.

 

Oh.... I expect that once the league catches up to Vince Young, he'll come back to earth once he has to "learn" and not just wing it out there. Last season when he was the second coming in some people's eyes, he was shooting from the hip and it was working. But an off-season for his divisonal rivals to catch up will bring him back and steepen that learning curve. Remember, he had more INTs than TDs, so he still has some "learning to do" and that's why he comes back to earth.

[RayFinkle]

If only Buffalo would have drafted Thurman in the 1st....maybe we would have won a bowl.

[billybob]

You don't need an all star RB to win but you really need 3 premire skill players - it could be WR, TE, really good 2nd WR and then a couple of RBs who can bang- right now the Bills got 1 great WR Lee Evans and that's it-

[Pyrite Gal]

You don't need an all star RB to win but you really need 3 premire skill players - it could be WR, TE, really good 2nd WR and then a couple of RBs who can bang- right now the Bills got 1 great WR Lee Evans and that's it-

 

I wish it was that simple (actually I do not want that because the complexity of figuring out how a team becomes a TEAM is a lot of the fun of following the NFL) but it simply isn't.

 

A real assessment of your theory would involve the laborious process of trying to confirm it by looking at each roster for the 3 premiere skill players. This would take some time though so to start lets look at a couple of examples in the real world to decide whether it is worthwhile to spend the time on a more exhaustive look.

 

Looking at successful teams is a good start because it should easily confirm your theory. Unfortunately in this decade that means looking at the roster of the NE Patriots which won 3 SBs in a mere 4 years.

 

They have had a ton of good players (though in many ways this is self-defining as good means successful so care should taken in going too far with this example in terms of looking for even indications of applicability to a general case- never mind that one data point does not make a trend or even a coincidence).

 

For premiere players though they are great so they probably stuck with a team for a number of years.

 

The three premiere players who meet whatever criteria you want to articulate for premiere players are: Tom Brady, and, and, and, must be those crickets.

 

They have won because in many ways their performance defines the concept of TEAM (form the introduction of the group which won the 2001 season SB which did not bring attention to individual skill players but to the fact they were a team. There certainly have been examples of good skill players because generally they are good and winning 3 SBs self defines premiere players. Yet, it is difficult to identify 3 premier players among the TEs, WRs, RBs, or whatever to go along with Brady for these three teams.

 

In fact if one were to try to pick someone like a Corey Dillon, in the 1st SB it really was more Antowain Smith at RB, Dillon credibly could be called the premier player in two SBs, but they fit the model of going with 2 RBs mentioned above. Even if you want to expand your theory to D to find the premier players, this is a team which found a way one year to win an SB with their premier D player Rodney Harrison out with an injury.

 

Your theory simply does not fit the singular best example from this decade. (maybe you mean Venateri as the 2nd premier player, we're still short one).

 

It may well be the Pats are a singular team and not worth trying to imitate because most teams cannot do this.

 

Let's look at the current SB champ Colts to try to figure out whether your theory demands or even suggests more in depth analysis.

 

The Colts have Peyton, and Harrison so far so good with the theory. However, looking at their roster for a third premier skill player of the type you describe is a little troubling. The best case can be made that an RB like Edgerrin James clearly fits your theory for the whole three player layout.

 

However, their SB win (finally!) just happened to coincide with this third premiere player getting a huge contract to go elswhwere. They certainly found players to play well to fit in, but i think that few would describe Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark or the seeming other skill players as being premier players.

 

Your theory may be borne out if one inspects the other 30 teams but certainly a deeper look at the current champs or the most successful team this decade does not bear out your theory as obvious or even supportable without some bending and twisting.

[Simon]

After Peterson, there is a HUGE drop off in RB talent.

Fixed your typo.......