BuffOrange Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 I have to say, I love the Bills in this game. As is so often the case in the NFL, neither team is as good/bad as they've looked in the last 2-3 games. GB is playing better now, but the Bills looked to be clearly a better team in the 1st month. On a neutral field it's close, so the line doesn't look too off. But coming off a bye, at home against a week NFC team when everyone in Western NY is about to jump off a cliff and/or hoping for a loss and a top draft pick is pretty much the prototypical game where the Bills play well, get a few turnovers, and control the clock. The Redskins game in 2003 when Henry ran wild and the Rams game in 2004 were the same way (I distinctly remember people asking: "Why are we favored in this game? I'm betting everything on the Rams"). I thought "lol, yeah bet on the Rams on the road - that always works out well". Shockingly this annual game was missing from last year, though it really should've been the Atlanta game if JP wasn't so green. Favre is also due for one of those brutal road games that we've all come to know & love. I predict Clements will actually get his head out of his ass with a pick or two. So for only the 2nd time this year (the first being that I loved the Lions +2 a couple weeks ago) I'm pretty sure I know what's going to happen ATS in a Bills game this year. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 you forgot to mention that there probably will be about 20,000 packer fans there. That will take away any kind of home field advantage we have. I know I just sold my 4 tickets on ebay for $100 a piece. Gotta love those cheeseheads, willing to pay double face value for the right to go see 2 of the 6 worst teams in the league battle it out sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 I am thinking... Bills 37 G.B. 0 3 and 5, baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinandjokin Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 I have no idea what to make of that line. Typically, spreads in the 3.5 to 5-point range are Vegas' way of saying, "Yeah, um, we really have no clue what's going to happen either." I have been getting my ass kicked by the book this year in the NFL. Thank God for NCAA just keeping me afloat. I win a nice chunk on Saturday and then give it all back on Sunday. My theory is that every NFL team sucks. The hard part is figuring out who is going to suck less that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWings Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Sounds like the oddsmakers are thinking the teams are pretty even right now, since the home team is usually favored by 3 by default. Keep in mind that Green Bay has just beaten the likes of Miami and Arizona, neither of which are good teams. One can say they're playing well, but given the competition..... I'm not sure who I'd pick right now, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HopsGuy Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 My theory is that every NFL team sucks. The hard part is figuring out who is going to suck less that week. 820263[/snapback] I agree. Yesterday I had Philly and Carolina. Putrid. On Saturday, I had Marshall, Northwestern & Wake Forest. Wake missed covering by a 1 point, but the other two were solid. I can't remember a year where it was easier to pick college than pro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Last week the big question was why Cleveland was favored over the Jets? Well, it's the NFL and like you said, no one is as bad or as good as they appear from week to week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2003Contenders Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 What does scare me is that the Packers' OL is improving. Favre was mostly untouched yesterday, and the Packers had two different backs that topped the 100-yard mark. If the Bills can shut down their running game, I'm not sure that we have much to fear in the way of Favre picking us apart, given that 3 of his 4 top receivers will be sidelined -- and that 4th receiver (Driver) got banged up a bit yesterday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stussy109 Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Considering Green Bay can put up points with their offense, we need to be able to put up 24 pts or more to have a chance to win. Can our offense do that, i don't think so. We have put up like 13 points in the last two games, so. I am waiting for my bet to clear tonight when the Pats beat the Vikes. Provided that bet clears I will parlay it onto the Packers. The Oddsmakers are giving us too much credit at home. We suck as an offense plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinandjokin Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 I agree. Yesterday I had Philly and Carolina. Putrid. On Saturday, I had Marshall, Northwestern & Wake Forest. Wake missed covering by a 1 point, but the other two were solid. I can't remember a year where it was easier to pick college than pro. 820326[/snapback] I loved that Wake game early in the week but then forgot to jump on it on Saturday. I thought they would've covered easy. I had Notre Dame -13, Boston College -32.5, Georgia Tech -5, and Washington St +2. All winners, with the heavies being ND and GT. I lost two light bets- Wisconsin -22 almost lost outright to Illinois, and I took Missouri -1 over Oklahoma. I didn't love the Wisconsin line, but I've been riding them hard every week so I decided to stick with them. Yesterday I lost Saints, Rams, and Carolina. Gotta be Pats -1 tonight, right??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boltuprite Posted October 31, 2006 Share Posted October 31, 2006 I'll take Green Bay and the 3.5 points! If it it's a close game requiring a last minute drive to win, who would you rather have at the helm? Losman or Favre? For that reason alone I give the nod to GB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in San Diego Posted October 31, 2006 Share Posted October 31, 2006 Wow ! The Bills should be getting points, not giving them away. They are not that good to give away 3.5 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted October 31, 2006 Share Posted October 31, 2006 Yesterday I lost Saints, Rams, and Carolina. Gotta be Pats -1 tonight, right??? Of course. I use the Pats almost every week in my teasers. I believe in betting QBs like starting pitchers in baseball, and no one is better than Brady. Last week, Chicago, NE and GB was the tease. Not sure yet about this week but I'm leaning toward the Bears, Chargers and either Atlanta or NY Giants. We'll see. Chargers definately for the two suicide pools I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinandjokin Posted October 31, 2006 Share Posted October 31, 2006 Of course. I use the Pats almost every week in my teasers. I believe in betting QBs like starting pitchers in baseball, and no one is better than Brady. Last week, Chicago, NE and GB was the tease. Not sure yet about this week but I'm leaning toward the Bears, Chargers and either Atlanta or NY Giants. We'll see. Chargers definately for the two suicide pools I'm in. 821197[/snapback] I hammered on the Pats last night, got them at -2. The only thing that made me nervous was why it wasn't -5 or -6. I thought there was something I wasn't seeing. My only thought was, "the Bills beat the Vikings. They can't be that good." I also took a lite play on the Under 40.5, and I would like to extend a special thank you to both teams, who decided it wasn't necessary to score for the last 10 minutes. Cha-ching! How you doing on your teasers bills fan? I don't play them often but I think I'm 2-2 this year. One of them was Bills-Pats in week 1, teased Buff to +16 and teased the over down to 35. With the 19-17 final, I barely made that over! I heard a stat that only ~30% of teasers end up winning- that's why I ask how you're doing. The guy I use only allows 6-point teases, and you if there's a half-point, you lose it (so Bills plus 10.5 becomes Bills +16, not 16.5). Obviously, pushes lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted October 31, 2006 Share Posted October 31, 2006 My guy allows a straight 10 on the 3 gamer. You get the 1/2. I've lost 1 3 gamer and bet the 3 game every week of the season. I've been doing it for xtra cash since college. Basically, I look for good home teams with big point spreads, tease them down as close as I can to pick em. If I have to take a roadie I will, but I prefer home teams. I stay away from "Game of the Week" hype and always go for any game that I perceive could be a blowout. I also try and avoid division games if possible, too much familiarity there. I tend to stay away from teasing the O/U, but will on occasion if I can't find a 3rd game I like and there is a great defensive matchup. In that case I'll usually tease the O/U down and take the O. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinandjokin Posted October 31, 2006 Share Posted October 31, 2006 My guy allows a straight 10 on the 3 gamer. You get the 1/2. I've lost 1 3 gamer and bet the 3 game every week of the season. I've been doing it for xtra cash since college. Basically, I look for good home teams with big point spreads, tease them down as close as I can to pick em. If I have to take a roadie I will, but I prefer home teams. I stay away from "Game of the Week" hype and always go for any game that I perceive could be a blowout. I also try and avoid division games if possible, too much familiarity there. I tend to stay away from teasing the O/U, but will on occasion if I can't find a 3rd game I like and there is a great defensive matchup. In that case I'll usually tease the O/U down and take the O. 821259[/snapback] What about two-teamers, does he do 6? I've never asked my guy about the three team. I hate losing that half-point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted October 31, 2006 Share Posted October 31, 2006 He does a straight 6 on two teamers, although I rarely bet them. The xtra 4 points are too valuable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tcali Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 I have to say, I love the Bills in this game. As is so often the case in the NFL, neither team is as good/bad as they've looked in the last 2-3 games. GB is playing better now, but the Bills looked to be clearly a better team in the 1st month. On a neutral field it's close, so the line doesn't look too off. But coming off a bye, at home against a week NFC team when everyone in Western NY is about to jump off a cliff and/or hoping for a loss and a top draft pick is pretty much the prototypical game where the Bills play well, get a few turnovers, and control the clock. The Redskins game in 2003 when Henry ran wild and the Rams game in 2004 were the same way (I distinctly remember people asking: "Why are we favored in this game? I'm betting everything on the Rams"). I thought "lol, yeah bet on the Rams on the road - that always works out well". Shockingly this annual game was missing from last year, though it really should've been the Atlanta game if JP wasn't so green. Favre is also due for one of those brutal road games that we've all come to know & love. I predict Clements will actually get his head out of his ass with a pick or two. So for only the 2nd time this year (the first being that I loved the Lions +2 a couple weeks ago) I'm pretty sure I know what's going to happen ATS in a Bills game this year. Thoughts? 820025[/snapback] We will regret this win come draft day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted November 1, 2006 Author Share Posted November 1, 2006 Yesterday I lost Saints, Rams, and Carolina. Gotta be Pats -1 tonight, right??? 820427[/snapback] I lost on the Saints last week too. The other two - ugh - the Rams are notoriously bad on the road and the Panthers are notoriously bad as a home favorite. I've been picking 4 games per week: 20-12 so far this year. Bob Mathews' Friday column always cracks me up - the guy is the ultimate square. The biggest favorite on the board is his "best bet" every single week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinandjokin Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 I lost on the Saints last week too. The other two - ugh - the Rams are notoriously bad on the road and the Panthers are notoriously bad as a home favorite. 821558[/snapback] Rams +11.5? Against Martyball? Had to make the Chargers earn it. Unfortunately they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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