Orton's Arm Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 I didn't really see it that way. What I saw, or thought I did anyway, was that opposing defenses knew our line was, as coach BB said, "for sh*t". Consequently, they figured they would put lots of people up close and blitz a lot because they weren't going to get burned. Our line would not hold them off long enough for the QB to find the open guy. That halted our passing game at the point of attack, where it starts, in the pocket. As for the run, having all those guys up close put them in fine position to stop the run as well. There's truth to this post. There are some parallels to 2003, when the offense collapsed due to teams blitzing up the middle and to poor interior line play. But there are differences: in 2003, teams used the blitz to stop the pass first, because they knew Gilbride called few running plays. Because teams didn't fear the Gilbride running game, Travis Henry was able to put up a pretty good average on the rare occassions the Bills did run the ball. In contrast, McGahee achieved little when Losman was on the field, arguably showing that teams were more focused on stopping the run in Losman 2005 than they had been in 2003. Even if you don't have a good offensive line, you can still beat teams that send a horde of guys at the line of scrimmage. If the other team is getting to the quarterback after 2.5 seconds, the quarterback has to get rid of the ball after two seconds. These passes will mostly be dump-offs, and that's okay. There's nothing wrong with a series of five yard passes that move the chains, and keep the other team's defense on the field. But not every quarterback can read the field fast enough to execute this strategy. I've heard it said that Brady can see in two seconds what it takes Bledsoe three seconds to see. This is probably the biggest difference between the two quarterbacks, and this difference allows Brady to succeed under circumstances in which Bledsoe would fail. A quarterback who can consistently dump the ball off for five or six yards can force the defense to back off from the line of scrimmage. Once that happens, things start to open up for the running game. I don't feel Holcomb has Brady's talent or potential. However, Holcomb is Brady-like in his ability to dump the ball off quickly, thereby making the most of a bad situation. Those dump-offs help take the pressure off the running game. If you're moving the chains, you're getting more downs--some of which can be used on additional rushing attempts. The offense produced roughly seven more points per game under Holcomb than it did in Losman's second stint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 Anything's possible. Nall does have an arm. So far in OTAs, at least from what little we've been hearing, Nall has been the leaast impressive of the three. He seems to be having the most problems picking up the new offence and the most problems with accuracy. He also has issues with mobility and athleticism. It's still early though. He could come around in training camp. Nall sometimes gets off to a slow start. In his NFL Europe season, for example, he started off the year pretty badly. Then at some point something clicked, or he decided to pull himself together, or something. He ended the year with only 50 fewer passing yards than Kurt Warner had in NFL Europe, and three more TD passes than Warner had. Maybe the same will happen here; to where he'll look mediocre or worse in training camp and the first preseason game or two, only to pull himself together and play like a real QB from that point forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuntheDamnBall Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 Nall sometimes gets off to a slow start. In his NFL Europe season, for example, he started off the year pretty badly. Then at some point something clicked, or he decided to pull himself together, or something. He ended the year with only 50 fewer passing yards than Kurt Warner had in NFL Europe, and three more TD passes than Warner had. Maybe the same will happen here; to where he'll look mediocre or worse in training camp and the first preseason game or two, only to pull himself together and play like a real QB from that point forward. 705195[/snapback] NFL Europe = shooting craps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 Nall sometimes gets off to a slow start. In his NFL Europe season, for example, he started off the year pretty badly. Then at some point something clicked, or he decided to pull himself together, or something. He ended the year with only 50 fewer passing yards than Kurt Warner had in NFL Europe, and three more TD passes than Warner had. Maybe the same will happen here; to where he'll look mediocre or worse in training camp and the first preseason game or two, only to pull himself together and play like a real QB from that point forward. 705195[/snapback] If Nall were any good, he'd be in GB. Seriously, I don't get why people are expecting this guy to be anything but a backup. If GB saw abilty, don't you think they would have kept him around and not used a first rounder on Rogers to be Favre's successor? He's going to be the 3rd QB on the team this year. Maybe for his entire career in Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 How many times do we have to go over this..... JP Losman.....big cannon.....no time to even set his feet and throw in the pocket and he isn't looking to throw short every play..... Kelly Holcomb.....not a big cannon...everything short.... OF COURSE HIS COMPLETION PERCENTAGE IS GOING TO BE HIGHER...the short pass is all we can complete...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 Nall sometimes gets off to a slow start. In his NFL Europe season, for example, he started off the year pretty badly. Then at some point something clicked, or he decided to pull himself together, or something. He ended the year with only 50 fewer passing yards than Kurt Warner had in NFL Europe, and three more TD passes than Warner had. Maybe the same will happen here; to where he'll look mediocre or worse in training camp and the first preseason game or two, only to pull himself together and play like a real QB from that point forward. 705195[/snapback] Well, seeing as he's played in NFL europe and has all of 33 NFL pass attempts, there is a much higher % that Nall just doesnt have it and will look mediocre to worse throughout the preseason, and will never step it up. I dont see where you see that Nall is ever going to turn into anything, except in your hatred for JP. A low draft pick, a 3rd stringer for most of his career, and his former tea spent a 1st rounder because they werent sold on him. Sure we'd all love it if Nall was the next Joe Montana. But simple logic says that chances are, Nall will never be anything more than a #2 or 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted June 8, 2006 Author Share Posted June 8, 2006 How many times do we have to go over this..... JP Losman.....big cannon.....no time to even set his feet and throw in the pocket and he isn't looking to throw short every play..... Kelly Holcomb.....not a big cannon...everything short.... OF COURSE HIS COMPLETION PERCENTAGE IS GOING TO BE HIGHER...the short pass is all we can complete...... 705204[/snapback] I agree that all either really had time to complete were short passes but my concern is that JP missed a lot of those too. His accuracy problems were not confined to long bombs. Holcomb was simply more accurate and the huge difference, 67% to 49%, isn't due entirely to one guy throwing short and the other long. In fact, inside the redzone from 20 and in, the difference is even worse, 70% to 31% I think. JP wasn't throwing any longer there than Holcomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 I agree that all either really had time to complete were short passes but my concern is that JP missed a lot of those too. His accuracy problems were not confined to long bombs. Holcomb was simply more accurate and the huge difference, 67% to 49%, isn't due entirely to one guy throwing short and the other long. In fact, inside the redzone from 20 and in, the difference is even worse, 70% to 31% I think. JP wasn't throwing any longer there than Holcomb. 705262[/snapback] Mickey, If we are looking for someone to be accurate on 5 yard passes all day long then I will totally agree with you.....Holcomb is the guy for that.... Unfortunately throwing those type of passes all day long will not help our team win. - The longer it takes for a team to drive the length of the field (or the more plays it takes) the more chance there is for a drive to stall.....this happened A LOT to us last year (dropped passes, false starts, sacks etc.). Every once in a while you need bigger plays. - When you play that style of ball all the time you are usually going to be playing either from behind OR you aren't going to have a comfortable lead. When you start getting scored on you are forced to then open up your playbook and do things you are not used to doing....hence giving the opposing defense chances to pin their ears back and make big plays - Short dump off passes are not conducive to the type of receivers we have.....they are downfield deep threat guys..... - Playing dump off ball allows linebackers and safeties to play closer to the line of scrimmage therefore killing your running game....running games are more effective when they are running UNDERNEATH the coverage that gets spread out due to having to account for more area of the field....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 A low draft pick, a 3rd stringer for most of his career, and his former tea spent a 1st rounder because they werent sold on him. I'm sorry, were you describing Craig Nall or Kurt Warner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 I'm sorry, were you describing Craig Nall or Kurt Warner? 705304[/snapback] For every kurt warner, there are 50 washouts that never make it anywhere in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ1 Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 For every kurt warner, there are 50 washouts that never make it anywhere in the NFL. 705327[/snapback] More like 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 - The longer it takes for a team to drive the length of the field (or the more plays it takes) the more chance there is for a drive to stall.....this happened A LOT to us last year (dropped passes, false starts, sacks etc.). Every once in a while you need bigger plays. I agree with the importance of big plays. Yes, Losman has a stronger arm than Holcomb, and yes, Losman can throw a deep ball. So he's in a better position to make big plays. Nonetheless, the Bills' offense averaged seven more points per game under Holcomb than it did in Losman's second stint. Losman's severe shortcomings more than canceled out his big play ability. Ideally, you'd want a quarterback who has a strong enough arm to make big plays, but who is accurate and consistent enough to have a Holcomb-like effectiveness on the smaller plays. Nall has the arm strength for this, and based on his performance in NFL Europe, the preseason, and limited playing time during the regular season, he may well be accurate enough too. If Nall isn't the answer, I hope the Bills go 1-15 to take Brady Quinn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyrite Gal Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 Mickey, If we are looking for someone to be accurate on 5 yard passes all day long then I will totally agree with you.....Holcomb is the guy for that.... Unfortunately throwing those type of passes all day long will not help our team win. - The longer it takes for a team to drive the length of the field (or the more plays it takes) the more chance there is for a drive to stall.....this happened A LOT to us last year (dropped passes, false starts, sacks etc.). Every once in a while you need bigger plays. - When you play that style of ball all the time you are usually going to be playing either from behind OR you aren't going to have a comfortable lead. When you start getting scored on you are forced to then open up your playbook and do things you are not used to doing....hence giving the opposing defense chances to pin their ears back and make big plays - Short dump off passes are not conducive to the type of receivers we have.....they are downfield deep threat guys..... - Playing dump off ball allows linebackers and safeties to play closer to the line of scrimmage therefore killing your running game....running games are more effective when they are running UNDERNEATH the coverage that gets spread out due to having to account for more area of the field....... 705293[/snapback] My understanding of the type of O which Fairchild is likely to install here is based on a model which actually produces the large gains in yardage which you correctly state are essential to running an offense efficiently and successfully. However, if successfully produced these long gains will come by emphasizing getting good RAC from the receivers after the QB dumps off to them with well-timed and well constrcted short passes. None of us will really know the O until after a few games and seeing how it is adjusted and employed against different D personnel and schemes (believe me this better be true or if novices like even the most expert of fans can figure it out, folks paid to do so with a lot more experience will likely figure it and defend against it). However, if the question is can Kelly Holcomb sling the ball long and all over the field all day long, the answer is obviously no from what he has shown in his lengthy career. However, if the question iswhether Holcomb can pick his spots and send it long accurately enough to force opposing Ds to defend against this possibility and thus open up things underneath for more frequesnt dump-offs by a KH which with good RAC turn into long gains, this makes more sense. The WR corps of the Bills actually seems to have the talent and demographics to make this work. Likely #1 WR Evans- Plenty of speed and will likely get a ton of cushion or beat some press coverage to go deep so he can cut off routes for dump-offs or catch a mid-range pass from KH if he is pressed and singled. Likely #2 PP- Flourished when Moulds drew a double and if opponents double Evans to press him shallow but double him if he beats the press with a deep safety then PP gets likely singled. Likely #3 Parrish- More speed and shiftier than Reed who did well teaming with Moulds and Reed as he often saw LB coverage as both receivers needed to be doubled. Likely #4 Reed- He did well playing #3 with two WRs ahead of him drawing attention so if we go 4 wide- Reed may once again recover the collegiate form which got him the Biletnikoff and was hinted at by his rookie perfornance. Former RB has great RAC potential and dump-offs may be his game unless the droppsies return. I still think the chances are that Losman will beat out KH snd there is little reason to expect (though all Bills fans hope he is a star) that Nall will eclipse the number 3 role he had in GB. However, while I like third year guy Losman to be more likely to have great improvement that makes him at least adequate than I think 19 year man Holcomb will suddenly improve to be more than the adequate player he is, the key for the Bills producing something like the results of the high-flying St. L O is going to be our receiver corps having the speed to force opponents into deciding who they are not going to cover well and thw QB figuring that out and hitting the hot WR or McGahee being used as a prime receiving threat which Clements did not do.. JP can star IF he makes the reads right and calms down on his throws. Even Holcomb can star IF he makes the right reads and the OL gives him the time to throw deep occaisionally to keep the cushion for the WRS. Even Nall can star IF he learned a lot sitting behind Favre all these years and if he can translate this knowledge into game play,, I like the prospects for our O and the demographics of the personnel we have accumulated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 If Nall isn't the answer, I hope the Bills go 1-15 to take Brady Quinn. 705380[/snapback] The fact that you'd rather lose than win with Losman is truly pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasoninMT Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 There is such a thing as overanalyzing numbers... The only number that matters in the W/L... Whoever is QB has got to improve that number or they don't belong as the QB... IF you are depending on your QB to win games... JP is the goat for an inept team, simply because he is the QB. I don't think that's very fair of the media or us as fans, but it's a fact nonetheless. Have a healthy QB competition in camp/preseason... the best QB deserves the job. I don't care about stats during the preseason... Whoever seems most comfortable and adept with the 1st stringers in the "system" deserves that job. Biggest story so far this offseason (other than Front Office/coaches)? Not Nall or JP... but where the hell is Willis. It's a new administration, and he belongs at the OTA's... as do the rest of the no-show vets. I know they are "voluntary"... but not showing up is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 I don't feel Holcomb has Brady's talent or potential. However, Holcomb is Brady-like in his ability to dump the ball off quickly, thereby making the most of a bad situation. Those dump-offs help take the pressure off the running game. If you're moving the chains, you're getting more downs--some of which can be used on additional rushing attempts. The offense produced roughly seven more points per game under Holcomb than it did in Losman's second stint. 705192[/snapback] I'm not going to argue that Holcomb doesn't read defenses quicker at this point in his career than Losman, obviously he does. However, the key element you're leaving out of this is that Holcomb dumps the ball off repetedly even when he HAS time. He pretty much dumps the ball off all the time. If Holcomb played anything like Brady I'd be happy to have him back there as my QB. Unfortunately he doesn't as Brady throws down the field lots when given time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted June 9, 2006 Share Posted June 9, 2006 The fact that you'd rather lose than win with Losman is truly pathetic. 705420[/snapback] Wrong. I'd rather win with Nall or Quinn, than lose with Loss Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hootie1 Posted June 9, 2006 Share Posted June 9, 2006 Does anyone else get the feeling from reading Chris Brown's blog that he is in JPs corner? It just seems like if he decribes a mistake that JP makes in OTAs, he minimizes it, while also playing down anything good that Holcomb does. He does not sound too thirlled with Nall, either. Do Brown's opinions ever forcast which way the team is heading? I have not been reading him long enough to know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCBoston Posted June 9, 2006 Share Posted June 9, 2006 I agree with this in only one respect. That accuracy is important. You may be right and I may be wrong but here is how I see the accuracy problem. First, Losman isn't known for being an inaccurate passer. He wasn't in college. His % may not be right at the top but that is because he doesn't go the safe route, he tries to make a play on 3rd down, he tries to go downfield. The accuracy problems last year, IMO, were about 10% due to his talent deficiencies, 40% due to the situations he was put in and 40% due to the in-over-his-head panic factor. And the last one may be under-estimated. The coaching and play-calling put him in terrible situations. The blocking and penalties put him in terrible down and distance. He was running for his life. he was put in seven step drops and asked to survey the field with WRs who couldnt get open. They asked him to do too much and he wasn't experienced enough or mature enough as a QB (after only starting two years in college on a ragtag team in a floundering program). He just wasn't ready for doing what they were asking him to do regardless of how many hours he spent studying film with Sam Wyche. That led to him being nervous, jumpy, skittish and with a ton of pressure on him. And it showed. That is where almost all of the inaccuracy came from, IMO. And the game plans changed drastically when Holcomb was put in. He needs to mature as a quarterback. He needs to calm down his emotions. He needs experience in the games for the game to slow down for him. Last year, he would sometimes miss guys on 10 yard outs by three yards. That is not an inaccurate quarterback, that is a quarterback that is nervous and shell shocked and unable to temper his adrenaline. I expect him to be much more calm because he is a year older, he doesn't have the huge pressure on him right off the bat (that will come in the games). He is not an inaccurate passer. And he really won't have that problem with accuracy in practice anyway because the heat of the rush and the pressure of the game doesn't exist. That said, Holcomb is probably still a more accurate passer to some degree. That is what he is good at. That is why he is in this league. But the (hopefully) marginal difference in certain passes that Holcomb is more accurate in with be outweighed by Losman's higher accuracy on the long ball, his running and scrambling ability, his ball handling and his youth and arm strength. And I'll bet anyone here $100 that barring injury he starts opening day. 704383[/snapback] Man, that is a beautiful post. Why can't we get more posters like you? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDRupp Posted June 9, 2006 Share Posted June 9, 2006 There has been a lot of talk about JP's fast feet and about who does and doesn't like him in the locker room and all that. I don't think those factors are what is going to decide who starts for us this year. I think the critical factor is going to be pretty simple: Accuracy.Accuracy. That is the main thing. I saw JP totally miss open guys on short routes too many times, especially on third down. Above all else, an NFL QB has to be accurate. His completion percentage was 49%. As ineffective as Holcomb often was, his percentage was 67%. I am convinced that JP's completion percentage, his lack of accuracy, is why Dick and Marv are not sold on him and why they brought in Nall and promised him a legit shot at the starter's job. It doesn't matter what problem we have on the line, Holcomb threw behind the same line as JP did. I don't think Marv or Dick really care whether or not JP can make some plays occasionally with his feet. I don't think they give a hoot whether this or that vet likes JP or hates him. What they want is a QB who delivers the ball to an open man accurately. Yeah, the blocking is likely to be bad. There might not be as many opportunities to make a play as we would like as we try and rebuild this offense. However, when there is time to throw and there is an open man, the QB has to find him and hit him. We can't afford to many unforced errors from the QB. When they have a chance to get the ball to an open guy, they can't sail it over their heads or throw it into the dirt. If JP can show himself to be accurate, he will start. If Nall or Holcomb show better accuracy, JP will not start. 49%????? That better have been a result of his lack of experience and not a true indicator of his ultimate abilities. Given his lack of playing time in year one, last year was his rookie campaign. Class is over for JP. He has no more leeway. I think Nall knows this is the best chance he will ever have at winning a starting job and I expect him to give it all he has. Holcomb has to know that this is his last hurrah as a starter. I think he will make the most of the opportunity as well. Should be an interesting camp. 704368[/snapback] Hugely agreeing with that and my opinion as well. I Really hope it was inexperience that led to poor accuracy in his 8 games. it really stinks he did not get 12 or so starts to his if if would improve. What scares me is the part about missing wide open guys on short patterns to move the chains. With how E Moulds can catch and snatch the ball it was really disgusting to watch some of his throws. He has a great arm but it is not even nearly as important as being accurate b/c if you fire a bullet off target it is much harder (or impossible as some of Moulds attempts to catch JP's balls indicated) than a miss with average speed where a WR can react and adjust to make a catch or attempt. Do you guys recall the opener against the Texans? we should have killed them by 30 but JP could not deliver fairly short passes on target on 3rd down almost at all. I really hope it was inexperience but I also believe Marv and Dick can't and are not banking on it. Bottom Line: JP needs to be the starter for the first 8-10 games if he is healthy only UNLESS he is beating soundly by Nall or Holcomb. If they play better slightly give it to JP for 8-10 games so we know what we have and can move on or ride him. Peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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