Going on the Record on JP Losman

[JDG]

Well, my views on JP Losman seem to have become quite the source of controversy. Since the visibility of this position is surely going to be the source for future "I told you so" posts, here is what I believe regarding JP Losman as of 3/21/06 for the record, so that there isn't any confusion....

 

1) Kelly Holcomb was the QB who gave the Bills the best chance to win every single week during 2005.

 

Indeed, Buffalo *might* well have won three or four more games had Holcomb started every single game. (Although for the record, at the time of the actual games this season, I was as excited to get the chance to see JP Losman play as the next guy.)

 

2) Just because successful QB X struggled early in his career, it does not mean that Losman's performance so far has even been good enough to be comparable to QB X's struggles.

 

Although many NFL QB's have struggled early in their careers before going on to success, (such as Drew Brees) JP Losman has significantly underperformed most of those examples. This is particularly true if comparing JP Losman to other QB's in their second year in the NFL (and many of these examples did not play as rookies either.) Although JP Losman has only had nine games under his belt, he was still nevertheless as a second-year player, and should be judged as such. His performance last year would have been disappointing for a rookie - for a second year player, it was downright abysmal. Indeed, almost all, if not all, of the examples of QB's who put up similar stats to Losman's before going on to success are examples of QB's who put up such stats as a rookie. There seem to be few, if any, examples of a QB sitting out their rookie year, putting up comparably abysmal stats as a second-year player, and then going on to success in the NFL.

 

3) Although successful QB X struggled early in his career - unsuccessful QB Z also struggled early in his career, and Losman's performance might actually bear as much similarilty to QB Z's track record as to QB X's.

 

If a QB is simply never going to develop into a productive starter, the quicker you are able to reach that conclusion, the quicker you able to avoid having lost seasons due to shoddy QB play - lost seasons that hamper the development of the rest of your offensive skill position players, and the quicker you are able to begin developing your real QB of the future. Just look at what sticking with Joey Harrington has done to the Detroit franchise over the past few years. It is worth noting that Heath Shuler was abandoned after two years (just 18 games appearances (not sure how many starts) in those 2 years) as well as Cade McNown (@14 starts in 25 total games in two seasons) and Akili Smith (@15 starts in 18 games over 2 years). Indeed, although he wasn't a 1st Rounder, Shaun King was essentially abandoned as a starting QB after just his second year in the NFL and only 22 regular season games. Judgments are made after just two season on 1st Round QB's all the time by NFL talent evaluators , and often with less than a full season of starting.

 

4) At the heart of JP Losman's failings as a QB so far is his completion percentage.

 

Big plays are nice, but ultimately a decent completion percentage is a sine qua non of NFL QB play. If you don't complete passes, then you are punting far more often than you want to, and ultimately losing games - such as by giving up serious comebacks to your opponent, thanks to all the extra possessions they receive, despite the big plays. All successful NFL QB's eventually exhibit a decent completion percentage. Even Eli Manning showed the ability to complete 60% or more of his passes in a game early on in his career, even while he was struggling overall. Heck, even Cade McNown showed that ability! So far, however, JP Losman has yet to show that ability.

 

5) It is legitimate to judge a QB after just two years in the League. At some point, even after just two years in the League, a QB has played too badly to justify further starting opportunities.

 

Although it is difficult for fans to judge a QB after only nine games, NFL Coaches and GM's have the ability to break down the tape of each of those games, the opportunity to directly interview the QB in question, and to examine the film of practices - as well as to examine the entire pre-draft scouting report on a player. I believe it is entirely possible for an NFL Head Coach and NFL General Manager to develop certain conclusions about a quarterback. These conclusions are probably based on percentages and a range of outcomes - i.e. the likelihood of becoming a productive NFL QB in the future. If Marvy Levy and Dick Jauron conclude from this information that it is unlikely (but probably not impossible) that JP Losman will become a productive NFL starter, then Levy and Jauron should absolutely pursue other options at QB. This includes bringing in Craig Nall, or at least considering the drafting of a QB if they rate a QB is being clearly the best player available once we get on the clock. Due dilligence for Marvy Levy and Dick Jauron will certainly involve evaluating the available QB's in the draft, and assessing the likelihood of one of them becoming a productive NFL starter vs. the likelihood of JP Losman becoming an NFL starter vs. the likelihood of the other players available becoming a productive NFL starter. Although the Bills have now spent a ton of picks on Bledsoe and Losman, we can't change the past and can only look to the future. We can't chase our losses - so if a QB is the best pick available, then we should make that pick. Ultimately Dick Jauron and Marv Levy are going to be judged by wins and losses 2-3 years from now, and they can't be expected to blindly trot out a QB they don't believe in (if, indeed, they don't believe in him) just because their predecessor left them with him.

 

6) I believe that there is no guarantee that JP Losman should be the starting QB on the first day of Training Camp, nor on Opening Day.

 

Based on the information available, Dick Jauron *must* start the QB on Opening Day who gives us the best chance to win that game. If there is no sign of change in Training Camp, then that player will be Kelly Holcomb or Craig Nall. JP Losman has had the opportunity to start, but his sorry performance in those opportunities has not earned him the continued opportunity to start in the blind hope that he will develop. As noted in #2 above, his performance has been substantially below that of other second-year QB's who struggled early in their careers before going on to success.

 

Note:

 

I am not saying that the Bills should cut Losman - indeed I am saying that I would totally support Marv Levy and Dick Jauron giving Losman the opportunity to come to Training Camp this summer and win the starting job back from Kelly Holcomb (and hold off the competition from Craig Nall), should Marv Levy and Dick Jauron think that that opportunity is warranted.

 

I am not saying that I think that Losman will never become a productive NFL starter - I am just saying that it is unlikely, based on the experiences of past NFL QBs. I *love* mobile QB's, and I thought Losman was an exciting player last year. Unfortunately, while he is exciting, I also believe that last year he simply was not good enough to win. Moreover there are scant few examples of QB's putting up similarly bad numbers to Losman at the start of their careers, particularly in their second years in the NFL and going on to success. At some point, those odds (based on prior NFL experiences) start to become daunting - and again, there is a certain benefit to being able to cut bait with a likely failure as quickly as possible.

 

I believe that given the way the odds are aligning, the Bills should still give Losman a chance this year, but should also be preparing for the fact that the most likely outcome of Losman getting that chance this year is that he will fail to produce at a high enough level to justify starting him in the future. Indeed, the Bills should be preparing for the possibility that based on evaluations in this year's camp, and if Craig Nall in particular could win the job, and perhaps if we end up with another young QB in this year's draft, that Losman might never start for the Bills again. But for now, I consider that to be just a legitimate possibility - and the reason I get into so many debates about Losman on here, is that far too many Bills fans seem to view that as an impossibility.

 

JDG

[colin]

YOUR a traitor!!

 

u support terrorists!!

[The Rev.Mattb74 ESQ.]

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times

[Chilly]

YOUR a traitor!!

 

u support terrorists!!

638418[/snapback]

 

YOUR ARE DUMB!!!!!

 

 

YOUA RE TEERRRIZT!!!!!

[colin]

YOUR ARE DUMB!!!!!

YOUA RE TEERRRIZT!!!!!

638423[/snapback]

 

you really need to fix your sarcametor

 

embarrassing really

[Tortured Soul]

JDG,

 

I think your post deserves at least one serious response. I agree that it is not worth much to compare JP to other QBs because there is pretty much an example out there to prove anything. I think the only way to judge a young QB is on what you've seen from him, and it just seems that even the plays JP gets right, its like the old saying about the broken clock. I just don't see it. I hope it shows up, and it's definitely possible that the light will turn on this summer, but Marv and Co. had better know what they're doing in cas it doesn't.

[mead107]

why ???

[Bob in SC]

Serious post #2. I'm afraid I have to agree with you. He has been really bad to date. Maybe he will turn it around, but I am not optimistic. Happy feet and a rag arm.

[Heels20X6]

Serious post #2. I'm afraid I have to agree with you. He has been really bad to date. Maybe he will turn it around, but I am not optimistic. Happy feet and a rag arm.

638445[/snapback]

 

I'll accept the 'happy feet' remark but 'rag arm'? Give your head a shake! The kid has an incredibly strong arm. It's what drew the Bills attention to him in the first place. If anything, a lot of the sports commentators brought attention to the fact he was releasing the ball too quickly without enough touch on it.

[BADOLBILZ]

Well, my views on JP Losman seem to have become quite the source of controversy.  Since the visibility of this position is surely going to be the source for future "I told you so" posts, here is what I believe regarding JP Losman as of 3/21/06 for the record, so that there isn't any confusion....

 

1) Kelly Holcomb was the QB who gave the Bills the best chance to win every single week during 2005. 

 

Indeed, Buffalo *might* well have won three or four more games had Holcomb started every single game.  (Although for the record, at the time of the actual games this season, I was as excited to get the chance to see JP Losman play as the next guy.)

 

2) Just because successful QB X struggled early in his career, it does not mean that Losman's performance so far has even been good enough to be comparable to QB X's struggles. 

 

Although many NFL QB's have struggled early in their careers before going on to success, (such as Drew Brees) JP Losman has significantly underperformed most of those examples.  This is particularly true if comparing JP Losman to other QB's in their second year in the NFL (and many of these examples did not play as rookies either.)  Although JP Losman has only had nine games under his belt, he was still nevertheless as a second-year player, and should be judged as such.  His performance last year would have been disappointing for a rookie - for a second year player, it was downright abysmal.    Indeed, almost all, if not all, of the examples of QB's who put up similar stats to Losman's before going on to success are examples of QB's who put up such stats as a rookie.  There seem to be few, if any, examples of a QB sitting out their rookie year, putting up comparably abysmal stats as a second-year player, and then going on to success in the NFL.

 

3) Although successful QB X struggled early in his career - unsuccessful QB Z also struggled early in his career, and Losman's performance might actually bear as much similarilty to QB Z's track record as to QB X's.

 

If a QB is simply never going to develop into a productive starter, the quicker you are able to reach that conclusion, the quicker you able to avoid having lost seasons due to shoddy QB play - lost seasons that hamper the development of the rest of your offensive skill position players, and the quicker you are able to begin developing your real QB of the future.  Just look at what sticking with Joey Harrington has done to the Detroit franchise over the past few years.  It is worth noting that Heath Shuler was abandoned after two years (just 18 games appearances (not sure how many starts) in those 2 years) as well as Cade McNown (@14 starts in 25 total games in two seasons) and Akili Smith (@15 starts in 18 games over 2 years).    Indeed, although he wasn't a 1st Rounder, Shaun King was essentially abandoned as a starting QB after just his second year in the NFL and only 22 regular season games.    Judgments are made after just two season on 1st Round QB's all the time by NFL talent evaluators , and often with less than a full season of starting. 

 

4) At the heart of JP Losman's failings as a QB so far is his completion percentage. 

 

Big plays are nice, but ultimately a decent completion percentage is a sine qua non of NFL QB play.  If you don't complete passes, then you are punting far more often than you want to, and ultimately losing games - such as  by giving up serious comebacks to your opponent, thanks to all the extra possessions they receive, despite the big plays.  All successful NFL QB's eventually exhibit a decent completion percentage.  Even Eli Manning showed the ability to complete 60% or more of his passes in a game early on in his career, even while he was struggling overall.  Heck, even Cade McNown showed that ability!  So far, however, JP Losman has yet to show that ability.

 

5) It is legitimate to judge a QB after just two years in the League.  At some point, even after just two years in the League, a QB has played too badly to justify further starting opportunities. 

 

Although it is difficult for fans to judge a QB after only nine games, NFL Coaches and GM's have the ability to break down the tape of each of those games, the opportunity to directly interview the QB in question, and to examine the film of practices - as well as to examine the entire pre-draft scouting report on a player.  I believe it is entirely possible for an NFL Head Coach and NFL General Manager to develop certain conclusions about a quarterback.  These conclusions are probably based on percentages and a range of outcomes - i.e. the likelihood of becoming a productive NFL QB in the future.  If Marvy Levy and Dick Jauron conclude from this information that it is unlikely (but probably not impossible) that JP Losman will become a productive NFL starter, then Levy and Jauron should absolutely pursue other options at QB.  This includes bringing in Craig Nall, or at least considering the drafting of a QB if they rate a QB is being clearly the best player available once we get on the clock.    Due dilligence for Marvy Levy and Dick Jauron will certainly involve evaluating the available QB's in the draft, and assessing the likelihood of one of them becoming a productive NFL starter vs. the likelihood of JP Losman becoming an NFL starter vs. the likelihood of the other players available becoming a productive NFL starter.  Although the Bills have now spent a ton of picks on Bledsoe and Losman, we can't change the past and can only look to the future.  We can't chase our losses - so if a QB is the best pick available, then we should make that pick.  Ultimately Dick Jauron and Marv Levy are going to be judged by wins and losses 2-3 years from now, and they can't be expected to blindly trot out a QB they don't believe in (if, indeed, they don't believe in him) just because their predecessor left them with him.

 

6) I believe that there is no guarantee that JP Losman should be the starting QB on the first day of Training Camp, nor on Opening Day.

 

Based on the information available, Dick Jauron *must* start the QB on Opening Day who gives us the best chance to win that game.  If there is no sign of change in Training Camp, then that player will be Kelly Holcomb or Craig Nall.    JP Losman has had the opportunity to start, but his sorry performance in those opportunities has not earned him the continued opportunity to start in the blind hope that he will develop.  As noted in #2 above, his performance has been substantially below that of other second-year QB's who struggled early in their careers before going on to success.

 

Note:

 

I am not saying that the Bills should cut Losman - indeed I am saying that I would totally support Marv Levy and Dick Jauron giving Losman the opportunity to come to Training Camp this summer and win the starting job back from Kelly Holcomb (and hold off the competition from Craig Nall), should Marv Levy and Dick Jauron think that that opportunity is warranted. 

 

I am not saying that I think that Losman will never become a productive NFL starter - I am just saying that it is unlikely, based on the experiences of past NFL QBs.  I *love* mobile QB's, and I thought Losman was an exciting player last year.  Unfortunately, while he is exciting, I also believe that last year he simply was not good enough to win.  Moreover there are scant few examples of QB's putting up similarly bad numbers to Losman at the start of their careers, particularly in their second years in the NFL and going on to success.  At some point, those odds (based on prior NFL experiences) start to become daunting - and again, there is a certain benefit to being able to cut bait with a likely failure as quickly as possible.

 

I believe that given the way the odds are aligning, the Bills should still give Losman a chance this year, but should also be preparing for the fact that the most likely outcome of Losman getting that chance this year is that he will fail to produce at a high enough level to justify starting him in the future.  Indeed, the Bills should be preparing for the possibility that based on evaluations in this year's camp, and if Craig Nall in particular could win the job, and perhaps if we end up with another young QB in this year's draft, that Losman might never start for the Bills again.  But for now, I consider that to be just a legitimate possibility - and the reason I get into so many debates about Losman on here, is that far too many Bills fans seem to view that as an impossibility.

 

JDG

638387[/snapback]

 

The way I read it, you think Losman will fail just because you think he will fail. Not a lot of substantive info in there, though it is true that Losman is inaccurate. Accuracy is great, it's a big part of why Tom Brady is so good, but there is more than one way to play QB.

 

My take on Losman all along is that he has Donovan McNabb-type ability. He's athletic and a threat to run, has a strong arm and is very streaky. Accuracy is very important, but moving the chains and scoring TD's are what quarterbacking is all about.

 

A guy like Kelly Holcomb will appear more efficient on paper than McNabb, posting better completion %, higher QB rating, even a higher yards per attempt, but many efficiency stats are actually padded by quarterbacking failures. IMO, Losman has the ability to replicate McNabb's success, and then possibly grow into a more accurate passer as he matures. It may come as a shock to some to compare Losman to McNabb, but only because you've HEARD of him. Losman has comparable skill. I'd rather have a Tom Brady type, but I do think Losman has a very good chance to be a star QB.

[BuffOrange]

Good post -

the constant Eli comparisons do get annoying. He was a rookie and he also played against sick defenses in more than half his games in '04 - including Baltimore, Washington, Philly, and Pittsburgh. Moreover, whose to say Eli is any closer to QB X than QB Z based on how he played at times last year?

It's almost as tired as the Bellicheck comparisons when we were looking for a coach. "Oh really - you mean you don't want to hire this guy who sucked in _? What about Bill!" I mean for every Bellicheck there are a dozen Dom Capers' and Rich Kotites out there.

[Orton's Arm]

I believe that given the way the odds are aligning, the Bills should still give Losman a chance this year, but should also be preparing for the fact that the most likely outcome of Losman getting that chance this year is that he will fail to produce at a high enough level to justify starting him in the future.  Indeed, the Bills should be preparing for the possibility that based on evaluations in this year's camp, and if Craig Nall in particular could win the job, and perhaps if we end up with another young QB in this year's draft, that Losman might never start for the Bills again.  But for now, I consider that to be just a legitimate possibility - and the reason I get into so many debates about Losman on here, is that far too many Bills fans seem to view that as an impossibility.

638387[/snapback]

This is the best post I've seen making the case against Losman, and I include my own posts on the subject in saying this. Time will tell if you are right and Losman's highly vocal partisans are wrong.

[sven233]

Serious post #2. I'm afraid I have to agree with you. He has been really bad to date. Maybe he will turn it around, but I am not optimistic. Happy feet and a rag arm.

638445[/snapback]

 

I don't want to hear anythking about "happy feet." Have you ever watch Peyton Manning? He has the "happiest feet" in the history of the NFL!! He does a TWO-STEP every time he drops back to pass! He looks like a 3 year old in need of a bathroom!

 

Granted, Losman is not perfect. Far from it. But using "happy feet" as an excuse for poor play after watching guys like Manning dancing back there is not good. I am not saying that JP is Manning, I am just saying that "happy feet" will not make or break a QB.

 

And as for the "rag arm" comment........that has to be the worst argument EVER against Losman. Losman has his faults, but his arm strength is definately NOT one of them. He may not be the most accurate guy in the world, but it is definately not due to lack of arm strength......In fact, he may throw the ball TOO HARD at times which gets him in trouble. You might have Losman's arm confused with that other QB on our team that can't throw the ball over 3 yards 98% of the time.

 

There are a lot of knocks against Losman, but these 2 you bring up are the least of the problems.......and may not be problems at all!

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

Pretty much spot on in that I share the same opinion. Like you I'm willing to see if Losman can imrprove if that what the coaching staff decides to do. Losman has a lot of raw talent. Unfortunatly I think he lacks it up stairs. The Ability to stand in there and avoid pressure without taking off. The Ability to hit check downs if the big play isn't available. To be able to read defenses pre snap, to have a general idea who will be where.

 

Playing quaterback is a feeling out process. It's more then having the arm or quick release. It's knowing how the defense lines up, where your main receiver will be, Where to throw the ball, when to check down. When to take the chance. No one disputes Losmans ability for the deep ball. He has great touch on his deep passes, and the mobility to do damage with his legs. Unfortunatly he doesnt have the awareness to do much else that is required. In essence he's a young Jake Plummer.

[Orton's Arm]

IMO, Losman has the ability to replicate McNabb's success, and then possibly grow into a more accurate passer as he matures.  It may come as a shock to some to compare Losman to McNabb, but only because you've HEARD of him.  Losman has comparable skill.  I'd rather have a Tom Brady type, but I do think Losman has a very good chance to be a star QB.

638493[/snapback]

McNabb's overrated. That said, while Losman may not be the next McNabb, at least he replicated McNabb's ability to not see eye-to-eye with his go-to receiver!

[justnzane]

McNabb's overrated. That said, while Losman may not be the next McNabb, at least he replicated McNabb's ability to not see eye-to-eye with his go-to receiver!

638525[/snapback]

 

Even if McNabb is overrated, he was a damn good QB that could lead a team. and a great modrak pick

[apuszczalowski]

He made alot of rookie mistakes and decissions last year, but he also showed alot of his potential on plays.

 

he has a very strong yard but lacks the accuracy. He does have happy feet, but that can just be nerves and blamed on being a rookie with little experience. He needs time to develop so he stops making rookie mistakes. Some of his mistakes are mental mistakes he needs to work on overcoming.

 

i'm not going to say that he is the answer as QB or he will be a great one, but I won't say he's a bust after only playing in 8 games. We will have a better view of him after another season of him being a starter and by the end of this year we should know weither he's the guy or not.

 

There is no way that you can determine if he is a bust or not after only 8 starts.

[apuszczalowski]

i also think McNabb's overrated, but that doesn't mean i don't think he is a good starting QB, I just don't think McNabb is as good as they make him out to be.

[Pyrite Gal]

The great thing about our QB situation this year is that JP, Hiolcomb and now Nall can credibly compete with each other for the job. None of these men appear to be stud NFL QBs as best as I can tell, but all have a reasonable chance at being adequate enough to get this team into the playoffs once it becomes a TEAM/

 

Regardless on what we think this one will be determined on the field rather than in the front office which is where it should be settled and that is a great thing IMHO.

 

In terms of my own fact-free opinions as to how this battle will turn out my sense is:

 

1. Losman has the inside track due to his age and contract. Though I think this one will be settled on the field, one would have to be a fool to ignore the fact that age and contract make a difference. In this case I think the marginal difference will be that if KH or even Nall clearly are better and more productive than JP on the field they will get the nod. However, if it is a close call or even if the other two are marginally better than a JP who makes a showing that he may well come around by mid-seasom. I suspect JP will get the nod.

 

As far as on field, I think folks are giving up on him too soon. I think his talents were real and the seasoning of playing will make him a better player and even though he will still be far from perfect as a starter this season I think he will be good enough to get the nod.

 

2. KH is a very good back-up QB and I will be pleased to have him if JP folds or is hurt. However, he has never been a consistent producer over a season despite a few highlight reel games.

 

3. Nall is intriguing. I'd love for him to show enough to surpass KH and command the #2 slot. I doubt this will happen but he was a creduible back-up to Farve in the few times called upon.

 

Competition is good and thats the bottomline.

[Guest BackInDaDay]

In essence he's a young Jake Plummer.

638518[/snapback]

 

Yep.

http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showt...ndpost&p=533826