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Posted
1 hour ago, BearNorth said:

I follow a guy named Ken Massey who crunches all the results [from many sports]. 

 

He has us favored in all the rest of our games, He sees the toughest [lowest probability of winning] as at Houston 57% and home vs. Philly 59%. He has @NE as 61%, & @Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay both at 64%.

 

The Tampa game is shaping up as HUGE for a non-conference game as the Bucs are in a food fight with Rams, Seahawks, and Eagles for the bye in the NFC.

 

 

The Tampa game is a home game for us.  We should leverage our home field advantage to negate any advantage with that team.

Posted
2 hours ago, BearNorth said:

I follow a guy named Ken Massey who crunches all the results [from many sports]. 

 

He has us favored in all the rest of our games, He sees the toughest [lowest probability of winning] as at Houston 57% and home vs. Philly 59%. He has @NE as 61%, & @Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay both at 64%.

 

The Tampa game is shaping up as HUGE for a non-conference game as the Bucs are in a food fight with Rams, Seahawks, and Eagles for the bye in the NFC.

 

 

tampa is huge as a common opponent advantage. philly we matchup very well on because their skills are matched to our skills.

 

houston matches up well against us, as does new england.

 

as far as pittsburgh we just got too much juice for them.

Posted (edited)

Pittsburgh, Houston, TB, Eagles, and NE. No loss to any of those teams would be shocking. Nor an upset. I think they go 3-2 in that stretch. 

 

The most important thing is getting a top two seed. 

Edited by Billsfanatic8989
Posted

Just a general read of AFC, I feel a couple of teams may end up with 13-4 records to win a division. Teams like Denver, NE do not have difficult schedule and it may not come down to head to head records because the traditional power house (Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Texans) who plays each other does not apply. A team finishes 14-3 will definitely be the top seed. 

 

The Bills biggest challenge is 1) Texans 2) Eagles and 3) Bucs/Steelers. Injury may change things. I think teams with strong defense can give the Bills problems. Last year, Josh played his worst game in Houston. CJ Stroud gave us chances after chances near the end of the game and we could not do it. And that is Josh's MVP season! Yes the Texans are not where they were offensively last year, but I really have no confidence our defense will win a game for us against a capable QB (i.e., not the likes of Fields, Daulton).

Posted
6 minutes ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

Pittsburgh, Houston, TB, Eagles, and NE. No loss to any of those teams would be shocking. Nor an upset. I think they go 3-2 in that stretch. 

 

The most important thing is getting a top two seed. 

We will be favored in all of those games, and are heavily favored vs Tampa (-6.5). Would losing be shocking, no. But they would be upsets. 

Posted
Just now, Process said:

We will be favored in all of those games, and are heavily favored vs Tampa (-6.5). Would losing be shocking, no. But they would be upsets. 

That seems like a rather big spread. Do home teams still get three points automatically? If so, it would be 3.5 point favorites. 

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