UPDATE: ISRAEL v IRAN - Ceasefire reached?

[Big Blitz]

12 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

Pakistan and India are nuclear powers who hate each other, yet they don’t use them. It would be foolish to. 
 

How does our unwavering endless support for Israel benefit us? Further, what does Israel have that Ukraine does not?

 

Historical global guarantees to exist.  
 

6 million killed during the Holocaust. 
 

I could go back 5 thousand years if you’d like.  
 

I'll just leave this here.  Everyone should read this.  You don’t have to believe it.  But it should absolutely make you reflect on what the Judeo-Christian West we are in a constant battle to preserve means.  
 

This is fantastic:

 

 

[Trump_is_Mentally_fit]

2 minutes ago, njbuff said:

Now your TDS has delved into the sexual stage?

 

 

No, it's always been sexual, where you been. 

 

If Iran still has the ability to build a bomb then jumping into do Israel's work will have been a mistake 

[Big Blitz]

 

[sherpa]

4 minutes ago, Trump_is_Mentally_fit said:

 

If Iran still has the ability to build a bomb then jumping into do Israel's work will have been a mistake 

 

Absolutely not true.

[njbuff]

2 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

Absolutely not true.

This statement is the story of Fib’s life.

[K D]

4 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

The stealth bombers were carrying 2x 30,000lb bunker buster bombs each so they said they were so heavy that they had to limit fuel on takeoff just to get off the ground then immediately refuel mid air and then multiple refuelings mid air on their route all the way to the middle east. Pretty wild how well they had these logistics down without the enemy even able to track them

[Doc]

2 hours ago, Trump_is_Mentally_fit said:

Will the sleeper cells give us a warning? 🤷‍♂️

 

The sleeper cells, if there any, will not attack.  Iran won’t dare.

 

1 minute ago, K D said:

The stealth bombers were carrying 2x 30,000lb bunker buster bombs each so they said they were so heavy that they had to limit fuel on takeoff just to get off the ground then immediately refuel mid air and then multiple refuelings mid air on their route all the way to the middle east. Pretty wild how well they had these logistics down without the enemy even able to track them

I heard they’ve been practicing (for) this since 2008.

[Trump_is_Mentally_fit]

15 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Historical global guarantees to exist.  
 

6 million killed during the Holocaust. 
 

I could go back 5 thousand years if you’d like.  
 

I'll just leave this here.  Everyone should read this.  You don’t have to believe it.  But it should absolutely make you reflect on what the Judeo-Christian West we are in a constant battle to preserve means.  
 

This is fantastic:

 

 

This is all true and all that, and the Israeli's possess an extraordinary amount of human capital, but let's face it, their money and influence has bought the backing of the Super Power USA. Without the United States they would be a historical afterthought.  

[Trump_is_Mentally_fit]

20 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

Absolutely not true.

Why, because there is a view out there that Isael owns the USA, anyway? 

 

If Iran still gets the bomb, this will be seen as a half measure that failed to achieve its goal

Edited 5 hours ago by Trump_is_Mentally_fit

[Big Blitz]

 

[Doc]

14 minutes ago, Trump_is_Mentally_fit said:

Why, because there is a view out there that Isael owns the USA, anyway? 

 

If Iran still gets the bomb, this will be seen as a half measure that failed to achieve its goal

[Trump_is_Mentally_fit]

Just now, Doc said:

You don't think Middle Eastern countries think that??? 

[The Frankish Reich]

2 hours ago, sherpa said:

 

This is way beyond energy guarantees.

That issue has been largely de-weaponized.

Disruptions would have short term effect, but nothing like the old days.

 

The elimination of a rogue regime that has been at war with us for 45 years, killing thousands, and has an expressed intent of eliminating Israel and the US could prevent many future wars.

Removing their military offensive capability is doable.

Regime change is on their people though.

 

Want to live in peaceful coexistence, or want to pursue some wacky religious 12th Imam end times strategy? 

So let me play devil's advocate here for a moment. (I'll note that I don't disagree with seizing the moment to take out Iran's nuclear program, as long as the Admin officials who were sent out to say "this is not about regime change" are right.)

 

What does "energy independence" or "energy dominance" (in Trump's usage) get us? If it isn't about getting involved in the Middle East or choosing sides in the Iran-Saudi proxy war, what is it about? Why is it an important goal if we are still - for whatever reason - going to pay undue attention on a region that is otherwise pretty marginal to the world (and specifically US) economy?

[K D]

Imagine saying you stand with Iran. They would chop these people's heads off if they stepped foot in their country. Especially the he she's. Are people really this stupid?

 

[Doc]

30 minutes ago, Trump_is_Mentally_fit said:

You don't think Middle Eastern countries think that??? 

That they “own” the US? No.

[Walking Tall]

President Trump and MAGA coming out of this conflict stronger than ever!

[sherpa]

45 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

So let me play devil's advocate here for a moment. (I'll note that I don't disagree with seizing the moment to take out Iran's nuclear program, as long as the Admin officials who were sent out to say "this is not about regime change" are right.)

 

What does "energy independence" or "energy dominance" (in Trump's usage) get us? If it isn't about getting involved in the Middle East or choosing sides in the Iran-Saudi proxy war, what is it about? Why is it an important goal if we are still - for whatever reason - going to pay undue attention on a region that is otherwise pretty marginal to the world (and specifically US) economy?

 

Energy independence is the insurance policy against blackmail, as happened in Carter's 70's with the emerging belligerence of OPEC.

These days, we buy energy and sell energy in the open market using simple business decisions.

The backdrop is that we go go it alone, so we can't be as impacted by threats.

 

The problem with the middle east is that the hatreds there have the ability to lead to regional conflagration, and that would be immensely impactful.

That's why this is such a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Imagine no Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and Syria not launching weapons into civilian areas of Israel.

Imagine Israel able to peacefully coexist with Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon Iran, Saudi Arabia and others.

Advanced commerce without constant threat and disruption.

All of these assets wasted on trying to kill each other spent my responsible govs on advancing their people.

[ComradeKayAdams]

On 6/22/2025 at 2:17 PM, Orlando Buffalo said:

3 things- one I know you hate the USA as it is currently constructed but can not understand why you are still here since there are many social democratic countries out there. as for your "your trusted third parties" the people you trust are not pro American either, the Dems literally warn racist and murderers that ICE is doing sweeps, so their opinion is meaningless. I truly ask whose opinion would you trust on the data that does not truly hate Trump?

 

Whose opinions I would trust, you ask? Select IAEA representatives plus Congressional members of national security and intelligence committees (of all political stripes: left and right, populist and establishment). We should be following Constitution-esque protocols when dealing with imminent nuclear threats. Would you have been comfortable with a senile Joe Biden whimsically and unilaterally bombing, say, Canada over unsubstantiated rumors of imminent nuclear annihilation?

 

Why am I still living here in the United States, you ask?? LOL…um, family and friends, career and culture, the melting pot ethos, a lifetime of cherished memories, the vast natural geographic beauty, representative democracy, the Bill of Rights, the Constitutional separation of powers, etc… What’s wrong with me using the political process to change public policy? Didn’t you try to do the same last November?

 

You are perfectly free to consider yourself an arbiter of what’s “American” and what’s not. Go ahead and declare imperialism and trickle-down economics “American,” while declaring universal health care and nationalized land/natural resources “un-American.” Just remember that at previous points in American history, ideas like slavery and Jim Crow and miscegenation and Gilded Age capitalism and legalized misogyny and the ethnic cleansing of Native Americans were considered sclerotic American values.

 

On 6/22/2025 at 4:12 PM, Dukestreetking said:

Again just popping in quickly: some solid arguments made on both "sides". I'm impressed w PPP which, well, sometimes doesn't have the best rep, lol!

 

@ComradeKayAdams we may have different perspectives on domestic or geopolitical issues, but I "liked" you bc you present (fr what I've seen) reasoned, sober thinking. Seriously, I respect that.

 

But...I will briefly take issue with your statement:

 

“Imminent” = on the order of days or weeks or months, not a year or longer. There has been ZERO evidence suggesting the danger was imminent.

 

Perhaps some folks here have/had what is called CNWDI or Q clearance. If so, they might understand my gentle suggestion:

 

When one looks syncretically re the corpus of current and historical evidence (open or otherwise) of the IR NWP--or even data of other nuclear powers--there is most assuredly an "imminent path" from A to B.

 

What one does with that understanding is another matter entirely. I'm not trying to be overly opaque...but it's what I can offer here.

 

Yes, your post is a bit opaque to me, but I THINK I’m following: you’re telling me that there are clear standards for defining “imminent” nuclear emergencies like this one, and that you personally know of evidence existing that shows Iran crossed this “imminence” threshold? I’m honestly in no position to tell you that you are incorrect. I’m a civilian biomed device engineer who took one college elective course in intro nuclear science/engineering (random shout-out to the Lamarsh textbook…I still have it in my bookshelf!).

 

All I can tell you, anecdotally, is that my Dad is a solid-state materials physicist and a mild-mannered political centrist. His technical nuclear background is a lot better than mine, and he has DARPA funding under his belt. We talked about this exact topic for a few minutes last night, and he seems to think that the technological likelihood of Iran being able to strike Israel (let alone the U.S.) with nuclear weapons this calendar year is absurd.

 

 

On 6/22/2025 at 5:12 PM, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Still skeptical of government power, still question everything, still recognize that the camp I’m in— the “Holy crap I hope the evidence they saw that convinced them that they had to act at this level, at this time”—-and hope it turns out  to be the correct camp to be in.   It’s ultimately a luxury to sit and judge this (or any) military action, and I’m mindful that I could be in the wrong camp.  However, the international community, keepers of the peace, etc all seem to point to the conclusion that Iran unchecked was going in one direction and that was a very bad thing.  That they chose that path tilts the scale for me. 
 

I think I’m pretty consistent in this regard.  I appreciate your diplomacy before death approach to this situation, but I see a certain amount of naivety in parsing between a day, a month and a year with the stakes here.  The Iranians were in the catbird seat and simply had to agree not to do that which everyone (even a non-intervention interventionist in a Hillary Clinton pantsuit like you) feels they should not be done.  You’re apparently willing to wait unit the bomb is made but not yet deployed, I’m hoping the decision was appropriate and they dealt with it before that happened.  

 

I feel like we’re going around in tautological circles at this point? Absent new nuclear intelligence information that is made publicly available, let’s agree to disagree. I envisage scenarios in which we’re aligned with what the proper course of action should have been.

 

P.S. My formal business wardrobe ratio of blazer dresses to CHIC pantsuits is officially 4.5. FOUR POINT FIVE. The implication that I might ever wear a frumpy Hillary Clinton warmonger pantsuit was completely out of line. You’re out of your element, Leh-ny, and how dare you.

[Trump_is_Mentally_fit]

41 minutes ago, Walking Tall said:

President Trump and MAGA coming out of this conflict stronger than ever!

He's looking MAGAtastic, huh? 

[Trump_is_Mentally_fit]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

 

 

What does "energy independence" or "energy dominance" (in Trump's usage) get us? If it isn't about getting involved in the Middle East or choosing sides in the Iran-Saudi proxy war, what is it about? Why is it an important goal if we are still - for whatever reason - going to pay undue attention on a region that is otherwise pretty marginal to the world (and specifically US) economy?

It's just BS. It's just rhetoric used by the politicians that are funded by Big Oil to get oil friendly policies. I mean if energy independence was a true goal then China wouldn't be using our technological discovery--solar power--to build a profitable manufacturing sector off of. Reagan, another oil politician, could have seized on that technology, as Carter rightfully tried doing, to make the United States the leader in the technology we created. China thanks these oil politicians