Jump to content

Oil prices


Recommended Posts

http://www.journalstar.com/articles/2005/0...5c876953692.txt

But, but, but...I thought we invaded Iraq for the oil!!

:devil:

363556[/snapback]

 

We did.

 

Now that we got it... We are gonna charge everybody more.

 

You are not gullible to think that gas prices were gonna go down? Exact opposite my friend?

 

That is like saying that since there is a salary cap, the owners will lower ticket prices!

 

Again, the opposite happens.

 

:doh:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

$80 + is not unrealistic. Gas prices, though are more a result of lack of refining capacity than the actual unit price per bbl of crude. Oil and gas commodities are hedged. Someone somewhere is getting their oil for $38 a bbl right now. The current price per bbl and the price of gasoline aren't synched.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

$80 + is not unrealistic. Gas prices, though are more a result of lack of refining capacity than the actual unit price per bbl of crude. Oil and gas commodities are hedged. Someone somewhere is getting their oil for $38 a bbl right now. The current price per bbl and the price of gasoline aren't synched.

363891[/snapback]

 

True.

 

When there is a mishap at a refinery or what not, I take it that it puts crimp in production and certain areas might see a spike?

 

But, you can't deny it that they want us to pay at a certain level? Get it over 2 bucks, bring it down, now up a little, little higher, now lower, now higher, higher, still higher... Ease us into that 3 buck range and nobody screams. Call it scratching the back of big oil?

 

There are a lot of variables.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

True.

 

When there is a mishap at a refinery or what not, I take it that it puts crimp in production and certain areas might see a spike?

 

But, you can't deny it that they want us to pay at a certain level?  Get it over 2 bucks, bring it down, now up a little, little higher, now lower, now higher, higher, still higher... Ease us into that 3 buck range and nobody screams.  Call it scratching the back of big oil?

 

There are a lot of variables.

363899[/snapback]

 

Undoubtedly. The oil companies are basically total crooks, as far as I'm concerned - and to me, that is where most of the fault lies. I was just making the point that crude prices not not directly relate to current gas prices.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

True.

 

When there is a mishap at a refinery or what not, I take it that it puts crimp in production and certain areas might see a spike?

 

That happened last summer...some sort of accident on the Mississippi caused a localized spike in prices in Florida, from the transport problems it caused.

 

But, you can't deny it that they want us to pay at a certain level?  Get it over 2 bucks, bring it down, now up a little, little higher, now lower, now higher, higher, still higher... Ease us into that 3 buck range and nobody screams.  Call it scratching the back of big oil?

 

There are a lot of variables.

363899[/snapback]

 

The fluctuation of gas prices is more consistent with market pricing than it is price manipulation, and I think (I don't know, and can't prove it) what evidence of manipulation there is can probably be explained away by reasonable hedging on futures.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Refining is the issue - as it has been for years. The oil that President Clinton released from the NPR never made it to market in the US and was actually sold overseas because there wasn't refining capacity to handle it.

 

According to one of industry buddies, gas prices would drop as much as a third if the oil companies simply stopped refining mid-grade gasoline and instead used that capacity to increase production of the lowest grade. They're definitely crooks and so is pretty much every large and too rich entity here in the US, starting with good ol' Uncle Sam.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Refining is the issue - as it has been for years.  The oil that President Clinton released from the NPR never made it to market in the US and was actually sold overseas because there wasn't refining capacity to handle it.

 

According to one of industry buddies, gas prices would drop as much as a third if the oil companies simply stopped refining mid-grade gasoline and instead used that capacity to increase production of the lowest grade.  They're definitely crooks and so is pretty much every large and too rich entity here in the US, starting with good ol' Uncle Sam.

364045[/snapback]

 

But what does a loser in Alaska know about the oil industry? :devil:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Refining is the issue - as it has been for years.  The oil that President Clinton released from the NPR never made it to market in the US and was actually sold overseas because there wasn't refining capacity to handle it.

 

According to one of industry buddies, gas prices would drop as much as a third if the oil companies simply stopped refining mid-grade gasoline and instead used that capacity to increase production of the lowest grade.  They're definitely crooks and so is pretty much every large and too rich entity here in the US, starting with good ol' Uncle Sam.

364045[/snapback]

 

 

Oh no. Big business bad, government bad.

 

 

Where is my tinfoil hat? Ding. Jeez I wonder what is on Oprah? :devil:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was a good docudrama on FX a few weeks ago, I believe it was called "Oil Storm". It documented the effects that a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico that damaged a major refinery in Louisiana would have. Then they threw in a plausible terrorist bombing of a facility in Saudi Arabia. Next thing you know the Chinese are outbidding the U.S. for future oil contracts, and the price of gas in the U.S. goes up to $8 a gallon for a year. Check it out if you get a chance. And it was non-political.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was a good docudrama on FX a few weeks ago, I believe it was called "Oil Storm".  It documented the effects that a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico that damaged a major refinery in Louisiana would have.  Then they threw in a plausible terrorist bombing of a facility in Saudi Arabia.  Next thing you know the Chinese are outbidding the U.S. for future oil contracts, and the price of gas in the U.S. goes up to $8 a gallon for a year.  Check it out if you get a chance.  And it was non-political.

364600[/snapback]

 

This must be some new definition of "good" that I've never heard before. "Oil Storm" sucked.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh no.  Big business bad, government bad. 

Where is my tinfoil hat?  Ding.  Jeez I wonder what is on Oprah?  :D

364056[/snapback]

 

Thank you for your brilliant and so totally thought provoking insight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Undoubtedly. The oil companies are basically total crooks, as far as I'm concerned - and to me, that is where most of the fault lies. I was just making the point that crude prices not not directly relate to current gas prices.

363936[/snapback]

 

Bingo. I deal with plastic resin purchasing, so we hedge on oil quite a bit. Our risk mgmt guys are expecting $72-$75 a barrel by end of the year. Not only is refining maxed out, but so are oil tankers. On top of that excess capacity is at an all time low, about a million barrels.

 

If China keeps growing at a 9-10% clip we can easily hurdle $80 a barrel. US consumers haven't curbed their usage despite the uptick in prices (probbaly won't see that until $3-$4 a gallon. Good news is that the US economy is surging faster than expected, but this in turn puts further strain on demand.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bingo. I deal with plastic resin purchasing, so we hedge on oil quite a bit. Our risk mgmt guys are expecting $72-$75 a barrel by end of the year. Not only is refining maxed out, but so are oil tankers. On top of that excess capacity is at an all time low, about a million barrels.

 

If China keeps growing at a 9-10% clip we can easily hurdle $80 a barrel. US consumers haven't curbed their usage despite the uptick in prices (probbaly won't see that until $3-$4 a gallon. Good news is that the US economy is surging faster than expected, but this in turn puts further strain on demand.

364736[/snapback]

 

From a past life, I bought natural gas in bulk on the market. I used to hedge in August for the Nov-Feb period. Would have liked to have done sooner sometimes, but projections too far down the road are inflated. I understand that, and why.They generally drop far enough out to forcast for usage. The entire energy industry is such a racket. Damn...the major players are literally raping us raw. I could tell you tales of the costs to run UNDER a prediction, with the tacked on loss crap from the Henry Hub to Baltimore (I got charged, essentially fined for the LOSS of what I didn't use that MIGHT have leaked out of the system). It's another reason many airlines are fuggged. Good operations like SW hedge their fuel. Others don't, reasons why...but who knows? To me, even if you take a 6 month NET loss ifyou end up overpaying, at least you know what you are paying. You can control costs accordingly. Others play the lotto with it, going for a potential drop to boost a quarterly earning.

 

HOTPOCKETs UNITE!

 

I'd love for someone who really knows this to chime in. I'm an amatuer. It could be educational. Kevbeau is a good start.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I did some consulting for a large group that had direct relations to american oil companies. I won't say more than that, because I can't.

 

I will say that the price of gasoline (I won't say barrels of oil, because they aren't directly related) is influenced by many factors, and is a very complex equation to predict. Those that do it well can make tons of $$. I'm not rich, BTW. :-)

 

Anyway, I will say that American oil companies were very happy that an oil man was elected, then re-elected, and they have profited greatly because of it, and will continue to do so for years. I will also say that it is one of the most crooked and at the same time influential businesses I've ever seen at many levels.

 

And if you think that their lobby just works with Republicans, think again. Republicans and Democrats are equally swayed by the dollar sign, and American Oil is great at putting their lobby dollars in the right place. Better than even the AARP, and much quieter about it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was it 1961 or 1962 that gas price was 11 cents?

364954[/snapback]

Couldn't say. DOE lists the nationwide average in 1961 as $0.31/gallon. This chart has the national average per gallon from 1919-2004. Also includes the prices adjusted for inflation - which would indicate (again, when adjusted for inflation) the national average price per gallon over the last 87 years has been as high as $2.92/gal (1981), as low as $1.22/gal (1998), and averaged $2.08 per gallon. From 1986-2002 we've had some of the cheapest gas in our history.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Couldn't say. DOE lists the nationwide average in 1961 as $0.31/gallon. This chart has the national average per gallon from 1919-2004. Also includes the prices adjusted for inflation - which would indicate (again, when adjusted for inflation) the national average price per gallon over the last 87 years has been as high as $2.92/gal (1981), as low as $1.22/gal (1998), and averaged $2.08 per gallon. From 1986-2002 we've had some of the cheapest gas in our history.

364977[/snapback]

 

If memory serves me it was due to a gas war due to ,of course ,overproduction. Since new refineries are few it is axiomatic that increased demand will drive prices upward. What is the price per gallon at which you will change your consumption? Anyway every one knows the "black Pope" is responsible for this. Or is it simmians?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If memory serves me it was due to a gas war due to ,of course ,overproduction. Since new refineries are few it is axiomatic that increased demand will drive prices upward. What is the price per gallon at which you will change your consumption? Anyway every one knows the "black Pope" is responsible for this. Or is it simmians?

365004[/snapback]

 

You really need to learn a language. Any language. Doesn't even have to be English; kiSwahili, coherently expressed, would be more comprehensible to us than the nonsense you type now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't care about the price of gas going up. I'll just cut the hot pockets out of my budget. :blink:

 

The issue that we need to be concerned with is our dependence on foreign oil. If something catastrophic should happen in the middle east, we'd be in a world of hurt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Refining is the issue - as it has been for years.  The oil that President Clinton released from the NPR never made it to market in the US and was actually sold overseas because there wasn't refining capacity to handle it.

 

According to one of industry buddies, gas prices would drop as much as a third if the oil companies simply stopped refining mid-grade gasoline and instead used that capacity to increase production of the lowest grade.  They're definitely crooks and so is pretty much every large and too rich entity here in the US, starting with good ol' Uncle Sam.

364045[/snapback]

 

Hey! My 1994 Chrysler recommends 89/mid-grade! You want me to get pings or pay extra for premium?

 

Actually they probably can start phasing it out... Since chip technology has gotten cheaper... Either recommend 87/regular or premium!

 

:blink:;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You really need to learn a language.  Any language.  Doesn't even have to be English; kiSwahili, coherently expressed, would be more comprehensible to us than the nonsense you type now.

365034[/snapback]

 

 

To US? Who is US?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't care about the price of gas going up.  I'll just cut the hot pockets out of my budget.  :blink: 

 

The issue that we need to be concerned with is our dependence on foreign oil.  If something catastrophic should happen in the middle east, we'd be in a world of hurt.

365047[/snapback]

 

As much as I hate our dependence on middle-east oil, I'm not worried about something catostrophic happening. They are as dependent on our money as we are on their oil. It's the beauty of capitalism.

 

Anyway, I'm only concerned with oil's effect on our foriegn policy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As much as I hate our dependence on middle-east oil, I'm not worried about something catostrophic happening. They are as dependent on our money as we are on their oil. It's the beauty of capitalism.

 

Anyway, I'm only concerned with oil's effect on our foriegn policy.

365151[/snapback]

 

Something catastrophic isn't outside the realm of possibility. A few well placed terrorist attacks in the middle east could disrupt a lot of flow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...